Why ACT are dropping, why National are losing and why NZ First have peaked + predictions
As we get into the election, we are seeing ACT drop, National drop and NZFirst slowing.
Last election, many Kiwis were post covid bitter and blamed Jacinda.
In 2020 Kiwis, so impressed with what Jacinda had done over Covid, gave Labour an unprecedented MMP majority and what did Labour do with that unprecedented majority?
Why they did sweet fuck all.
Labour won the Covid War but lost the Covid Peace because ALL incremental Labour wanted to do was rebuild to the same inequality rather than aspire for more.
The political bitterness this inspired alongside a tsunami of misogynistic social media hate saw voters turn to ACT, National and NZF in protest without any real clear appreciation of how toxic all 3 would be in any policy cocktail.
Jacinda saved 20 000 lives with her Covid response, but most of those 20 000 were Boomers and they repaid her by voting for NZFirst, so no good deed ever goes unpunished.
We’ve spent 3 years watching what the reality of ACT, National and NZF are and the electorate is even more hateful towards Government than ever before.
Because National and NZF are merely a front for their donors interests, this Government has attempted to strangle off the common good for their donors well being over and above that of the people.
The absurd Conservation land plan that opened up 60% of Conservation land for miners and the insane Fisheries Amendment Bill that allowed big industry to rape and pillage our oceans are only the most recent examples of this mindset.
Here are the reasons why ACT, NZF and National are failing.
Why ACT are dropping:
Kiwi’s like their racism casual and their bigotry gumboot. ACT promise a Libertarian fig leaf to hide their prejudice but redneck NuZilind wants the full bodied flavour that Winston is serving them, not the pointy headed geek waffle ACT are offering. ACT’s intolerance is diet flavoured when rednecks want the real thing that NZF is offering.
The problem for ACT is that they are fishing in the same racist swamp as Winston.
ACT explain their slump in the polls by claiming they have been too busy being in Government to be campaigning but that’s bullshit – check out their social media and they have been as frenetic as ever. Their breathless social media posts reek of a 19year old virgin incel at an orgy.
Part of their decline is the cultural issues around appealing to racists and part of ACTs decline is their utter capitulation to Israel. Simon Court’s deplorable grovelling to Zionist Apologists makes ACT radioactive. Kiwis don’t support genocide, ACT does and that is a hard cup of sick to swallow for many NZers.
I predict ACT will drop to 6% this election from 8.6% last election. Seymour used to be a brilliant, funny stand up, but he’s dour and has aged as badly as Barack Obama did. He’s less the entertaining Uncle and more the whining Karen now.
David “I’m going to stab you so deep in the back bro”
Why National are losing
For many urbane National voters who are cultured and educated, the manner of Luxon’s spinelessness and weakness to Winston and Seymour is despicable. These National voters believe in climate change and they don’t see the promotion of Māori culture as an attack on their identity.
For these voters the culture war garbage and race baiting trolling is ugly. They are voting for TOP.
The economy has gone backwards, Nationals slash and burn of public budgets while borrowing more for Tax cuts we couldn’t afford has hit everyone and National don’t have the luxury of a once in a. century pandemic to point to.
In 2023, 23% of Māori voted for National without comprehending what that would mean and since then, they have been marching back to Labour in droves.
I predict National will drop to 27% on election night from the 38% they won last election..
Why NZ First have peaked
The most vile and obscene hate trolls online are all identifiably NZFirst supporters and their hatred online is so radioactive, it disgusts rational voters and makes them turn away.
Sure the stoical media hate algorithms will lift NZF vote, but at an enormous cost to anyone else near them
NZF is now a brand of toxicity.
The problem for Winston is that people who want a Nuremberg trial for Jacinda and her family that ends in group hangings on the stairs of Parliament won’t be satisfied with anything less than a public execution.
You dance with conspiracy anti-vaxx anti-trans fascists and they don’t change, you do.
NZF will win 10% on the night which will be higher than their 6% 2023 result, but lose the election for the wider Right.
ACT entire selling point in the weekend was, vote us so Labour doesn’t win. ACT are so fing useless that’s all they have.
” In 2023, 23% of Māori voted for National without comprehending what that would mean and since then, they have been marching back to Labour in droves ”
That 23% should not be casting a party vote and have deserved everything they get with this regime and the rest of their whanau and fellow Kiwis who have suffered even more due to their political vote.
Going back in droves to Labour is their first mistake.
As in 2020-23 they will be in the same position giving the NZLP their party vote.
Labour might se to bend over in their direction but when it comes to the real economics that determines real economic outcomes the current status quo is failing more and more every three year electoral cycle.
Our Pacifica community is just as blind putting their faith every three years in the same failed alternative while being promised so much and then receiving very little in progress across so many areas that address real material need.
This coming general election should be a watershed in terms of rejecting the policies that have led us to where we are now.
There is no solid alternative that should be standing unified and determined to take on and defeat the current corrupt regime and those who are dominating our parliament and driving out our sovereignty , our rights and protections and our economic rights to be a participating in our economy that functions and provides for us all and to ensure that our rights and protections are maintained as a right for every New Zealander.
We are in need of the change now sweeping the progressive direction that Mamdani is delivering on.
” In 2023, 23% of Māori voted for National without comprehending what that would mean and since then, they have been marching back to Labour in droves ”
That 23% should not be casting a party vote and have deserved everything they get with this regime and the rest of their whanau and fellow Kiwis who have suffered even more.
Going back in droves to Labour is their first mistake.
As in 2020-23 they will be in the same position giving the NZLP their party vote.
Labour might se to bend over in their direction but when it comes to the real economics that determines real economic outcomes the current status quo is failing more and more every three year electoral cycle.
Our Pacifica community is just as blind putting their faith every three years in the same failed alternative while being promised so much and then receiving very little in progress across so many areas that address real material need.
This coming general election should be a watershed in terms of rejecting the policies that have led us to where we are now.
There is no solid alternative that should be standing unified and determined to take on and defeat the current corrupt regime and those who are dominating our parliament and driving out our sovereignty , our rights and protections and our economic rights to be a participating in our economy that functions and provides for us all and to ensure that our rights and protections are maintained as a right for every New Zealander.
We are in need of the change now sweeping the progressive direction that Mamdani is delivering on.
The freak show that is ACT, with their ex manager in jail for rubbing his genitils around young boys bottoms and a petulant leader who does a good impersonation of a 40 year old virgin, ….and who are only there because they, along with National, being morally bankrupt and corrupt …. is on the way out…
They will be lucky to make 5% come election time…not to mention that they have no idea what’s coming their way.
Bold predictions, Martyn, but I think you are right!
Frankly, I believe it won’t even be close on election night.
The only thing to work for is getting The Greens up into the high teens, even 20%, so they have the clout to drag Labour, protesting, leftwards!
Hard to believe we have managed to survive this horrible CoC! From day one they have done everything they can to undermine our lovely NZ, destroy everything worthwhile and bring in suspect, obnoxious bills/policies that only give to those who are not in need. The Racist, Seymour, is unashamably there for Atlas, definitely not for NZ! Everything he meddles with he messes up. He has absolutely no idea how the other half survive – even with full-time jobs and extra hours – and quite simply, he doesn’t care anyway! Whereas Winston is easy to see through as it’s all about himself with one outstanding tick as PM to come. NZF has nothing to bring to the table. Their racist, tinfoil hat, rabbit-hole voters are embarrassing and so slow-witted. While National, is what they have always been, lying, corrupt, without principles, values or decency. But the worst of the CoC ministers are those claiming they are part Maori. It’s not all about having a DNA test, it’s also a feeling of being linked to your forefathers and feeling proud of that connection – but it simply isn’t there! Labour did their utmost to save thousands of lives during Covid and are revered around the world. Had this CoC been in at the time, most of you would have lost a close loved one! Start to think about what this country needs to give everyone a fair go – it’s not that difficult!