Latest RNZ-Reid Poll shows why Left wing tactical MMP voting is the only way to victory

Chippy has warned voters that a vote for TOP might be a wasted vote, but when Labour won an unprecedented MMP majority in 2020, Labour squandered it –  the lesson for voters is that Labour need staunch mates like the Greens, like Te Pati Māori and like TOP to actually do something other than be incremental performance art.

Māori voters in the Māori Electorates have been the most tactical voters in the MMP environment, a TPM Candidate vote while recycling the Party vote to the Greens creates an Overhang and would push the Greens above NZF.

If we really want this Government out – tactical voting by Māori in the Māori electorates is the only path way to victory for the Left.

So many whanau are doing it so bloody tough right now, Unemployment for the country is 5.3%, 6.3% in Auckland, Māori unemployment is 11%, Pacifica unemployment is 11.5%, Māori youth unemployment is 19%, 51 percent of Māori households experience moderate to severe food insecurity and 16.5% of the total population (about 859,000 kiwis) are living in relative income poverty after housing costs.

Those people can not afford another National, ACT and NZF Government, and neither can the environment.

The announcement of Paul Henry as an ACT candidate will cannibalise more votes from Luxon meaning National could well be only 25% on Election night.

Last election, I was busy trying to explain to anyone who was listening that the policy alignment of National, ACT and NZF would explode into a hard right vandalism of the economy with culture war revenge fantasies masquerading as social policy.

I warned we would see free market ideology promoted over the common good and a level of crony capitalism for donors that would shock.

Lo and behold, we got that and so much more.

Thanks to social media hate algorithms, the polarisation of politics is more extreme in NZ than any time since the Springbok tour.

The post-Covid bitterness many blamed on Labour manifested in people voting ACT, NZF and National in without understanding what that policy line up would produce.

It wasn’t an election in 2023, it was grudge-phuck against Labour.

So.

You didn’t believe me about what a National/ACT/NZF Government would do in 2023, here’s what they will do if they win a second term in 2026.

• MASS STATE ASSET SELL OFF: They are already lining up to sell everything that isn’t locked down. They underfund a public service until you scream about how poor the service is and then they suggest privatisation as the solution.
• 60% SELL OFF OF CONSERVATION LAND: They have kicked the current plans to sell off 60% of conservation land  to touch and will revise  it after the election.
• CORPORATE CAPITULATION OF OUR DEMOCRACY: The Regulatory Standards Bill will remain and not be scrapped, it will allow the Taxpayers’ Union inside Parliament to scrutinise all legislation to ensure corporate property rights are put above human rights. Watch for Atlas Network and TU adjacent appointments.
• TOUGH ON CRIME PRISON EXPLOSION: The prison population is set to jump built on arresting the Homeless, burglars and shoplifters.
• MORE MINING AT EXPENSE OF CLIMATE: Shane Jones already has made some secret deal with Trump over our rare earth minerals and his championing of the dirtiest, cheapest mining where we get bugger all royalties has been turned into a culture war where Shane screams ‘woke’ at any environmental protections. There will be nothing Shane doesn’t mine if National, ACT and NZF are returned. Let’s not forget he also wants the Fast Track Power back!
• TOTAL CAPITULATION TO ISRAEL: ACT are the biggest Zionist apologists in the Government, if National, ACT and NZF are returned expect open deals between the Government and Israeli business plus more IDF war criminals holidaying here.
• MORE COWS AT EXPENSE OF CLIMATE: Whatever the climate change question is, National’s solution is always “More Cows”. Expect even MORE cows if National, ACT and NZF win a second term.
• LOWERING WATER STANDARDS: Because there will be more cows, they will need to lower the water standards again. 1 Cow – 14 people pissing and shitting into the water ways. We have 8.4million cows in NZ, that’s the equivalence of 117million people pissing and shitting into our water ways every single year.
• PRIVATE PRISONS: The only way the Government will be able to cover the costs of the rapidly rising Prison population is by Privatising Prisons. Expect ACT to make the argument.
• PULLING OUT OF WHO AND UN: Winston has gone full cooker on the UN because the conspiracy swamp he fishes in for votes believe the WHO is a shadowy one world Government run by a cabal of satanic child sex abusers. He will actually attempt it to keep his conspiracy theory nutters happy.
• TRUMP UBER ALLES: The total capitulation to Trump by this Government shames all our collective mana. If National, ACT and NZF are reelected, it will be Trump uber Alles.
• MORE RACE FRICTION: ACT have promised to bring back the Treaty Principles Referendum and Winston has announced a referendum on the Māori Electorates.
• DOMESTIC HOUSING MARKET OPENED TO FOREIGN SPECULATORS: They have vandalised the economy so badly and are desperate for any economic activity that they will open the domestic real estate market to more foreign speculation. Currently they are allowing foreigners to buy $5 million mansions, but that will drop the moment they are re-elected to $2million as they attempt to restart the property speculation market.
• FISHING AMENDMENTS BILL: Shane Jones will allow the Fisjing Industry to fuck over recreational fishing community.
• MORE HYPER TOURISM: They don’t care about the environment, they care about what their donors want to do to the environment  and they will open NZ to hordes of hyper tourism gridlocking our infrastructure again.
• VAST JUMP IN HOMELESSNESS, POVERTY + INEQUALITY: We are already seeing the ramifications of their brutality towards the homeless, beneficiaries and the poor. Expect these numbers to soar under a second term of National, ACT and NZF.

This election is down to the wire and the Left must vote tactically too maximise MMP to stop National, ACT and NZF from getting a second term!

There are many things that need to go right to throw them out of office and replace them with a Left Wing Government that will have to implement meaningful change in the lives of the poorest.

In 2026, ‘winning’ for the Left means more than the numerical supremacy of 51%, it means the implementation of policy that makes serious inroads into the cost of living while rebuilding our infrastructure.

Here they are:

• Labour mid 30s: Nothing can happen if the Labour Party vote collapses. They must stay mid 30s, 33 at a pinch. They can do this by appealing to the 23% of Māori who voted for National last election and by promising meaningful policy to the working classes who didn’t vote.
• The Kakariki Alliance MMP Tactical Voting: TPM must create an overhang this election and recycle their Party vote to the Greens. If they don’t they will lose any influence over the outcome. Māori voters in the Māori electorates are the most strategic voters in MMP, if they adopt a candidate vote for TPM and Party vote for Greens, that could be enough of a tactical move to lock the Right out from achieving 51%.
• NZF kept at 4th largest Party: The reason it is so important for TPM to recycle their wasted party vote towards the Greens is because if they slip and Winston leapfrogs them as the 3rd largest Party, Winston gets to call the shots, not the Left.
• El Niño + Trump’s Hormuz inflation: The fact that the most powerful El Niño in recent memory will peak over NZ hasn’t been factored in yet. If it is bad enough, it will combine to highlight National, ACT and NZF culpability, also the inflation from Trump’s mad war (that Luxon wanted to initially support) hasn’t hit us yet and the Strait remains closed until Trump can work out how he’s going to explain to the American public handing Iran $400billion as part of his surrender terms. When the economy hurts, voters get angry at the Government, not the Opposition.
• Specials:  The exodus of Kiwis to Australia is unprecedented and the chase for Special votes has never been more important. They could be the difference between winning and losing.
• The Kakariki Alliance United Negotiating Front: Part 2 of the Kakariki Alliance  between TPM and Greens will be a united negotiating front so Labour can’t wriggle out of real policy concessions while guarding against TOP crossing 5% and elbowing Greens/TPM out of the way.
• Defeat of Labour Incrementalism and the power of the Wellington Professional Managerial Class: The greatest hurdle to meaningful change is of course Labour’s incrementalism and the power of the Wellington Professional Managerial Class. This can only be broken by the united negotiating front of Greens + TPM. NO ONE can break Labour quite like John Tamihere, this is his moment to shine in the negotiations. Chippy can say to as many taxes as he likes before the election, but is he really going to take the country back to an election because he won’t tax billionaires? Come on.
• Tax, Economic Justice and meaningful cost of living policy: The Greens need the hard line of Tamihere to get their Taxes across the line and face a watering down of influence if TOP cross 5%. Tax, Economic Justice and meaningful cost of living policy has to be rammed through in the first 100 days to reward voters hopes and support. This can’t be done before the election because Chippy needs to appeal to the startled middle. The real fight for meaningful change can only be done through hardball negotiations after the Specials have been counted by November 27th.

Lots of things need to go right for the NZ Left to win the 2026 Election.

 

 

 

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