Latest RNZ-Reid Poll shows why Left wing tactical MMP voting is the only way to victory
Chippy has warned voters that a vote for TOP might be a wasted vote, but when Labour won an unprecedented MMP majority in 2020, Labour squandered it – the lesson for voters is that Labour need staunch mates like the Greens, like Te Pati Māori and like TOP to actually do something other than be incremental performance art.
Māori voters in the Māori Electorates have been the most tactical voters in the MMP environment, a TPM Candidate vote while recycling the Party vote to the Greens creates an Overhang and would push the Greens above NZF.
If we really want this Government out – tactical voting by Māori in the Māori electorates is the only path way to victory for the Left.
So many whanau are doing it so bloody tough right now, Unemployment for the country is 5.3%, 6.3% in Auckland, Māori unemployment is 11%, Pacifica unemployment is 11.5%, Māori youth unemployment is 19%, 51 percent of Māori households experience moderate to severe food insecurity and 16.5% of the total population (about 859,000 kiwis) are living in relative income poverty after housing costs.
Those people can not afford another National, ACT and NZF Government, and neither can the environment.
The announcement of Paul Henry as an ACT candidate will cannibalise more votes from Luxon meaning National could well be only 25% on Election night.
Last election, I was busy trying to explain to anyone who was listening that the policy alignment of National, ACT and NZF would explode into a hard right vandalism of the economy with culture war revenge fantasies masquerading as social policy.
I warned we would see free market ideology promoted over the common good and a level of crony capitalism for donors that would shock.
Lo and behold, we got that and so much more.
Thanks to social media hate algorithms, the polarisation of politics is more extreme in NZ than any time since the Springbok tour.
The post-Covid bitterness many blamed on Labour manifested in people voting ACT, NZF and National in without understanding what that policy line up would produce.
It wasn’t an election in 2023, it was grudge-phuck against Labour.
So.
You didn’t believe me about what a National/ACT/NZF Government would do in 2023, here’s what they will do if they win a second term in 2026.
- MASS STATE ASSET SELL OFF: They are already lining up to sell everything that isn’t locked down. They underfund a public service until you scream about how poor the service is and then they suggest privatisation as the solution.
- 60% SELL OFF OF CONSERVATION LAND: They have kicked the current plans to sell off 60% of conservation land to touch and will revise it after the election.
- CORPORATE CAPITULATION OF OUR DEMOCRACY: The Regulatory Standards Bill will remain and not be scrapped, it will allow the Taxpayers’ Union inside Parliament to scrutinise all legislation to ensure corporate property rights are put above human rights. Watch for Atlas Network and TU adjacent appointments.
- TOUGH ON CRIME PRISON EXPLOSION: The prison population is set to jump built on arresting the Homeless, burglars and shoplifters.
- MORE MINING AT EXPENSE OF CLIMATE: Shane Jones already has made some secret deal with Trump over our rare earth minerals and his championing of the dirtiest, cheapest mining where we get bugger all royalties has been turned into a culture war where Shane screams ‘woke’ at any environmental protections. There will be nothing Shane doesn’t mine if National, ACT and NZF are returned. Let’s not forget he also wants the Fast Track Power back!
- TOTAL CAPITULATION TO ISRAEL: ACT are the biggest Zionist apologists in the Government, if National, ACT and NZF are returned expect open deals between the Government and Israeli business plus more IDF war criminals holidaying here.
- MORE COWS AT EXPENSE OF CLIMATE: Whatever the climate change question is, National’s solution is always “More Cows”. Expect even MORE cows if National, ACT and NZF win a second term.
- LOWERING WATER STANDARDS: Because there will be more cows, they will need to lower the water standards again. 1 Cow – 14 people pissing and shitting into the water ways. We have 8.4million cows in NZ, that’s the equivalence of 117million people pissing and shitting into our water ways every single year.
- PRIVATE PRISONS: The only way the Government will be able to cover the costs of the rapidly rising Prison population is by Privatising Prisons. Expect ACT to make the argument.
- PULLING OUT OF WHO AND UN: Winston has gone full cooker on the UN because the conspiracy swamp he fishes in for votes believe the WHO is a shadowy one world Government run by a cabal of satanic child sex abusers. He will actually attempt it to keep his conspiracy theory nutters happy.
- TRUMP UBER ALLES: The total capitulation to Trump by this Government shames all our collective mana. If National, ACT and NZF are reelected, it will be Trump uber Alles.
- MORE RACE FRICTION: ACT have promised to bring back the Treaty Principles Referendum and Winston has announced a referendum on the Māori Electorates.
- DOMESTIC HOUSING MARKET OPENED TO FOREIGN SPECULATORS: They have vandalised the economy so badly and are desperate for any economic activity that they will open the domestic real estate market to more foreign speculation. Currently they are allowing foreigners to buy $5 million mansions, but that will drop the moment they are re-elected to $2million as they attempt to restart the property speculation market.
- FISHING AMENDMENTS BILL: Shane Jones will allow the Fisjing Industry to fuck over recreational fishing community.
- MORE HYPER TOURISM: They don’t care about the environment, they care about what their donors want to do to the environment and they will open NZ to hordes of hyper tourism gridlocking our infrastructure again.
- VAST JUMP IN HOMELESSNESS, POVERTY + INEQUALITY: We are already seeing the ramifications of their brutality towards the homeless, beneficiaries and the poor. Expect these numbers to soar under a second term of National, ACT and NZF.
This election is down to the wire and the Left must vote tactically too maximise MMP to stop National, ACT and NZF from getting a second term!
There are many things that need to go right to throw them out of office and replace them with a Left Wing Government that will have to implement meaningful change in the lives of the poorest.
In 2026, ‘winning’ for the Left means more than the numerical supremacy of 51%, it means the implementation of policy that makes serious inroads into the cost of living while rebuilding our infrastructure.
Here they are:
- Labour mid 30s: Nothing can happen if the Labour Party vote collapses. They must stay mid 30s, 33 at a pinch. They can do this by appealing to the 23% of Māori who voted for National last election and by promising meaningful policy to the working classes who didn’t vote.
- The Kakariki Alliance MMP Tactical Voting: TPM must create an overhang this election and recycle their Party vote to the Greens. If they don’t they will lose any influence over the outcome. Māori voters in the Māori electorates are the most strategic voters in MMP, if they adopt a candidate vote for TPM and Party vote for Greens, that could be enough of a tactical move to lock the Right out from achieving 51%.
- NZF kept at 4th largest Party: The reason it is so important for TPM to recycle their wasted party vote towards the Greens is because if they slip and Winston leapfrogs them as the 3rd largest Party, Winston gets to call the shots, not the Left.
- El Niño + Trump’s Hormuz inflation: The fact that the most powerful El Niño in recent memory will peak over NZ hasn’t been factored in yet. If it is bad enough, it will combine to highlight National, ACT and NZF culpability, also the inflation from Trump’s mad war (that Luxon wanted to initially support) hasn’t hit us yet and the Strait remains closed until Trump can work out how he’s going to explain to the American public handing Iran $400billion as part of his surrender terms. When the economy hurts, voters get angry at the Government, not the Opposition.
- Specials: The exodus of Kiwis to Australia is unprecedented and the chase for Special votes has never been more important. They could be the difference between winning and losing.
- The Kakariki Alliance United Negotiating Front: Part 2 of the Kakariki Alliance between TPM and Greens will be a united negotiating front so Labour can’t wriggle out of real policy concessions while guarding against TOP crossing 5% and elbowing Greens/TPM out of the way.
- Defeat of Labour Incrementalism and the power of the Wellington Professional Managerial Class: The greatest hurdle to meaningful change is of course Labour’s incrementalism and the power of the Wellington Professional Managerial Class. This can only be broken by the united negotiating front of Greens + TPM. NO ONE can break Labour quite like John Tamihere, this is his moment to shine in the negotiations. Chippy can say to as many taxes as he likes before the election, but is he really going to take the country back to an election because he won’t tax billionaires? Come on.
- Tax, Economic Justice and meaningful cost of living policy: The Greens need the hard line of Tamihere to get their Taxes across the line and face a watering down of influence if TOP cross 5%. Tax, Economic Justice and meaningful cost of living policy has to be rammed through in the first 100 days to reward voters hopes and support. This can’t be done before the election because Chippy needs to appeal to the startled middle. The real fight for meaningful change can only be done through hardball negotiations after the Specials have been counted by November 27th.
Lots of things need to go right for the NZ Left to win the 2026 Election.
Independent Media is more important than ever, especially in the lead up to the Election. TDB is the largest Left Wing Blog in NZ and we have been operating for 13 years now. We get zero funding g from NZ on Air and we don’t have no rich backers. If you can donate please do so here or directly into our account – 12-3065-0133561-56
Latest RNZ-Reid Poll shows why Left wing tactical MMP voting is the only way to victory
By Martyn Bradbury
15 July 2026
National, ACT, NZF – 48%
Labour, Greens, TPM – 46.6%
The latest RNZ-Reid Poll shows that the Leff bloc is trailing the Right bloc.
If you add TOPs 4.7% of the vote to the Left bloc the Left bloc is ahead of the Right bloc.
TOP are bleeding votes away from the Left bloc, setting the table to deliver them to the Right bloc.
A clear democratic majority want to get rid of this government.
The RNZ-Reid Poll shows that the only tactical way for the Left to win is to crush TOP.
And it needs to start now.
Chippy has warned voters that a vote for TOP might be a wasted vote, but when Labour won an unprecedented MMP majority in 2020, Labour squandered it – the lesson for voters is that Labour need staunch mates like the Greens, like Te Pati Māori and like TOP to actually do something other than be incremental performance art. Martyn Bradbury
A leader ‘hired’ for her likeability, ‘designed’ with ‘disccussion points’ instead of policies, TOP are the ultimate “manufactured” performance art party.
Stuff.co.nz:
What is The Opportunity Party? A left-wing party in disguise, pure hype, or something else?
Isaac Davison
June 29, 2026
Stuff looks at the latest version of the party: Its people and policies; its claim to be centrist; and whether its hype is real or manufactured.
Qiulae Wong (leader):
Wong is a 37-year-old sustainability consultant and mother of two from Auckland. She studied law and politics and helped fashion brands and businesses move to sustainable models in NZ and London. She has no background in politics……
Wong acknowledged to Stuff last week that any tax reform would be unlikely immediately and the policies were designed more as discussion points…..
A vote for TOP is not a wasted vote as Chippy says, a vote for TOP is a vote for National.
Vote TOP get National.
Don’t say you weren’t warned.
RNZ:
New RNZ Reid Research poll puts election on a knife-edge
Midday Report
16 September 2025
https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/middayreport/audio/2019004456/new-rnz-reid-research-poll-puts-election-on-a-knife-edge
The latest RNZ Reid Research poll has the election on a razor’s edge with the right and left blocs staring down the barrel of a hung Parliament with a 60-60 seat split. Political editor Craig McCulloch spoke to Charlotte Cook.
If TOP pass the 5% threshold it is guaranteed to return a National ACT NZF, TOP coalition
Qiulae Wong applied to an job ad on Seek is on the public record. That she had no prior experience with politics is also known.
Do you doubt that TOP would be “happy” to go into coalitions with National?
Qiulae Wong has stated on the public recored that TOP would be happy to go into coalition with National.
Wong has also said that she is prepared to meet with Christopher Luxon to discuss their common ground.
Qiulae Wong has also said that TOP have “No Bottom LInes” that would prevent them forming a coalition with Natonal., or admittedly Labour for that matter.
But when you look at TOP’s candidates, technocrats and small business people, the sort of people that generally vote National, you get the idea of where they will plonk their party’s support.
I am on pretty safe ground in saying that voting for TOP will ensure the return of a National, ACT, NZF, TOP coalition government.
Vote TOP get National
Don’t say you weren’t warned
We have some leftish campaign policies but we can ditch them.
(TOP policies get downgrade to ‘talking points’)
Stuff.co.nz:
What is The Opportunity Party? A left-wing party in disguise, pure hype, or something else?
Opportunity Party leader Qiulae Wong says the party’s radical policies are discussion points rather than hard bottom lines.
Isaac Davison
June 29, 2026
https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/360998566/what-top-left-wing-party-disguise-pure-hype-or-something-else
…..Wong acknowledged to Stuff last week that any tax reform would be unlikely immediately and the policies were designed more as discussion points than bottom lines.
” The majority of New Zealanders say that the country is on the wrong path, and they want real change. So why aren’t any of our parliamentary parties offering it? ”
The source of that disillusionment is not mysterious. It is the predictable outcome of a political class offering nothing but warmed-over neoliberalism at a moment when the country is crying out for structural change. Poll after poll shows that most New Zealanders believe the nation is on the wrong track. People want a break from austerity, from privatisation, from the endless transfer of wealth upward. Yet none of the parliamentary parties — all beholden to corporate interests and wealthy donors — are prepared to offer the kind of transformation the public is demanding. They compete not to change the system but to manage it more efficiently on behalf of the same narrow elite.
The tragedy is that the party best positioned to channel the public’s appetite for change — the Greens — has instead shackled itself to Labour in an electoral alliance that has blunted its edge and neutered its independence. Rather than articulating a bold alternative, it has chosen to steady Labour’s ship, even as that ship drifts further from the aspirations of ordinary people. In doing so, the Greens have forfeited the political moment that should have been theirs. It is a huge strategic blunder.
https://nzagainstthecurrent.blogspot.com/2026/07/new-zelands-economic-crisis-is-also.html
Voting Labour and expecting anything different from last time is a wasted vote.
It sums up the difference between National and Labour.
Labour will not make electoral deals to save itself and would rather lose an election than do so.
National would make a pact with the devil if that would help them keep power.
It is up to the individual to decide which course is best.
I’m sure old Winnie and Paul Henry will have the entertainment value of a house on fire.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TlcBgR5agFU
Of interest though is the growing support of the Opportunities Party and the Cronies First populist wave. Other than that its just Labour maintaining their ground and Luxon’s National in freefall like Brazillian World cup dreams.
Will be an interesting couple of months.
Does Hipkins really want to win .Lately he comes across as someone on auto pilot. There is no passion , little policy and no comment on key issues. He is overshadowed by Jacinda’s legacy in the same way Luxon is overshadowed by Key .
As a country we need to vote for policies not leaders.
Hipkins has no passion, frankly I see him as pretty lifeless but who else have they got. I think that Labour will depart eventually and the Greens will be the ‘other’ party certainly once we have El nino and people seriously wake up.
It is for TPM and the Greens to push them into making real change. Despite the Opp. party’s supporters wanting them to go with Labour Q says it will be whichever gets the greatest vote. Methinks it will not be National.
Far too many of Nat supporters are also struggling with the cost of living.
National led bloc 48%
Labour led bloc 46.6%
“….Q says it will be whichever gets the greatest vote. Methinks it will not be National.”
Michal
Kia ora Michal,
Q says it will be whichever gets the greatest vote. Methinks it will not be national, it will be the National led bloc, the National led bloc have the greatest vote.
Qiulae Wong did not state that TOP would form a coalition with the largest party.
Qiulae Wong stated that TOP would “negotiate” with the largest party “first”.
Qiulae Wong did not state that TOP wouldn’t negotiate with the second biggest party, but of course they will, TOP’s final negotiatons will be with National.
Qiulae Wong stated that TOP’s policies are, in her words, “designed more as discussion points”.
Qiulae Wong stated that she wanted to discuss “common ground” with Christopher Luxon.
Qiulae Wong stated that she may or may not be the first to “reach out” to Luxon to discuss their common ground.
Wong is being coy with the voters.
She has reason to be.
Quilae Wong knows TOP is stealing more votes from the Left and Centre bloc than from the Right bloc.
2026 will deliver the most undemocratic election result ever.
TOP are taking more votes from the Left and Centre bloc than from the Right bloc.
An RNZ Reid Research Poll showed that among decided TOP voters, 41.1% preferred a Labour-led government compared to just 21.3% who preferred a National-led one.
TOP leaders are setting the table to deliver these left and centre votes to a far right National led coalition government.
RNZ:
Opportunity voters lean Labour, but party says it ‘doesn’t drive our decision making’
Russell Palmer
14 July 2026
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/politics/713437/opportunity-voters-lean-labour-but-party-says-it-doesn-t-drive-our-decision-making?
……With Opportunity on the rise, new polling from RNZ shows the party’s supporters are far more keen on a Labour-led government than a National-led one.
But leader Qiulae Wong says that preference would not “drive” the decision-making of the leadership group who would make the call…..
Qiulae Wong was not elected by the TOP party members, Qiulae Wong was hired by the TOP leadership and is answerable to them. Unlike almost every other poltical party leader ever, Qiulae Wong has no mandate from her party’s members.
Polymarket is the most popular prediction betting market – Polymarket takes bets on anything.
Let me give you a tip Michael – Take a punt and place a bet on Polymarket. Bet that the Opportunity Party will give their support to the smaller Left bloc to get them over the line and lose your money. Bet that TOP will form a coalition with National, ACT and NZF and keep your money.
Qiulae Wong has stated that TOP will negotiate with the largest party first, Qiulae Wong didn’t state that TOP will form a coalition with the largest party.
There is a distinction.
Betting odds for the New Zealand general election currently point to a 70% probability that the governing coalition (National, ACT, and New Zealand First) will be re-elected. If TOP cross the 5% MMP threshold.
The New Zealand Herald Poll of Polls estimates an 88.1% likelihood that a combination of National, NZ First, ACT, and TOP will command a 61-seat majority.
Current Polymarket odds show more people are putting their money on a National led coalition government than a Labour led coalition government:
Labour + Green + Maori 29% Buy Yes 29¢ Buy No 72¢
$1,471 Vol.
National + ACT + NZF 46% Buy Yes 46¢ Buy No 55¢
$3,260 Vol.
Take it from the horses mouth.
https://polymarket.com/event/which-coalition-will-form-the-next-new-zealand-government
Do not act surprised at the result, the signs were all there. And do not say you weren’t told, or didn’t know.
And the reality is the left bloc has policies that will make a significant difference for the benefit of most kiwis. National only has punitive policies.
What policies? $180 of free doctors visits causing a stretched health system for those that are really ill and a subsidies public transport that cannot cope with much more without a huge investment.
Stretched health system because of Nationals policies, thank you for your admission. $180 eases the cost of living burden and when Labours health policy kicks in there will be no burden on the health system. 50cent public transport in Queensland takes thousands of vehicles off the road so the subsidy works. You’re not in the UK now and we know how politics has destroyed your country.
Give me one National policy that benefits “ALL” New Zealanders?
Crickets chirping…