NZ Could Run Out of Diesel in Weeks — And No One Is Ready
What if the biggest threat to New Zealand right now isn’t inflation, unemployment, or even war itself — but diesel? Because if we run out, everything stops. No food deliveries. No emergency services. No functioning economy. And according to warnings now emerging, that scenario may be far closer than anyone is willing to admit.
Hooton is writing some of the best columns of his career and his latest on how woeful National’s response to the enormity of what could happen if the illegal war on Iran isn’t resolved…
Matthew Hooton’s Diesel Warning Explained
Diesel shortage: Why our ‘benign’ isolation is now a brutal risk – Matthew Hooton
Thought COVID was bad? If New Zealand runs out of diesel, COVID will look like the rehearsal. The effects on the economy, social cohesion, law and order and even life expectancy would be worse.
Still sceptical? During COVID, we may have had to queue up at supermarkets, wear masks and keep our distance to buy food. But there was never any threat to delivery trucks being able to supply the supermarkets, harvesters to pick fruit and vegetables, stock trucks to pick up cattle and sheep, tankers to collect milk or fishing boats to head out to sea.
Nor were ambulances or fire engines ever unable to operate.
All that basic activity is now at risk of ceasing within weeks. Greater urgency is needed from Finance Minister Nicola Willis’ crisis-response team and a more constructive offering of alternative ideas from Chris Hipkins’ Opposition.
NZ Herald
Why This Threat Is Bigger Than Covid
…he’s right.
This is a far bigger threat to us than COVID and the Government’s response is dangerously underwhelming…
Far from being “incredibly well positioned”, we are among the most vulnerable to the impacts of the current crisis, except for the Gulf states and Israel, directly engaged in hostilities.
How Close Is New Zealand to Running Out of Diesel?
The Taxpayers’ Union’s excellent new FuelClock.nz brings together all the relevant Government data, plus information from the private sector and abroad.
The exact supply situation is disputed. The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) was forced to admit yesterday that it may have been confused by ships being discharged in port. In contrast, the union yesterday afternoon stood by its FuelClock.nz that indicated New Zealand had just 14 days’ supply of diesel onshore, plus another seven days confirmed as on its way.
This differs from MBIE’s estimates, which include vessels that haven’t yet been confirmed by automatic identification system (AIS) tracking – in other words, are only likely or scheduled.
As with the Covid vaccine, frantic efforts are underway to secure more diesel, but if they are unsuccessful, FuelClock.nz suggests that New Zealand could run out of diesel on April 16 under business-as-usual. Even with an emergency lockdown, it suggested diesel stocks might run dry as early as the end of next month.
The Iran War Timeline Everyone Ignored
… to date everyone seems to have horrifically underestimated how long this is going to be.
Decades of Warnings — And Miscalculations
For almost 40 years, Netanyahu has been claiming Iran is mere moments away from building a nuclear bomb requiring the West to attack Iran.
- He claimed this in a Knesset speech in 1992.
- He claimed it in a book in 1995.
- He claimed it in a US Congress speech in 1996.
- He claimed it in a congressional delegation in 2009.
- He claimed it at the UN General Assembly in 2012.
- He claimed it in a 2015 speech to the US Congress.
- He claimed it again in 2018.
- And he claimed it last year in numerous 2025 media interviews.
Why War With Iran Has Always Been a Worst-Case Scenario
There is no intelligence whatsoever that the bloody Iranians were about to build a nuclear weapon.
No American Administration over those 40 years were stupid enough to get conned into a war with Iran because every single time their CIA Geeks and Military Goons war game out a fight, it always ends in a blood bath massacre with regional wars, an Iranian Civil war, a couple of American capital ships sunk, Global energy prices exploding and a Refugee crisis that swamps Turkey.
The greatest danger from Trump illegally kidnapping the Venezuelan President and annexing their oil was the self belief that he could get away with ignoring the rules based order.
Trump has horribly miscalculated that Iranian Religious Zealots could be as bullied and bribed as a corrupt revolutionary government.
They are a Theocracy who welcome death, you can’t bribe or threaten them the way you could with a corrupt Venezuelan regime.
Escalation, Retaliation, and Oil Shock
Trump and Bibi killed the new Ayatollah’s dad, brother and wife, he wants revenge and the pound of flesh he will demand is $200 a barrel oil.
In his impatience and haste to bully Venezuela, Iran and Cuba into symbolic capitulation, so he could hold their scalps up in time for the opening of the FIFA World Cup before the Midterms, Trump has blundered into an Iranian trap that ratchets up every time he thrashes around.
The Timeline Collision: Fuel Shortage Meets War
The Iranians intend for this war to last six months, we are due to run out of diesel by April 16th.
Which is the same time when many military analysts believe Israel and America will run out of interceptor missiles.
To paraphrase 1990’s supergroup, Destiny’s Child: “I do not believe we are ready for this jelly”.
The key date here is 9 June. Iran needs this war to last right up to at least the opening ceremony of the Fifa World Cup. It will want to present itself as a credible threat to LA to the point that the public is too frightened to even go out to watch a football game. The closer we get to 9 June, the more Trump gets on his hands and knees to beg Iran for forgiveness.
On a cinematic side note, mentioning Mad Max is somewhat nostalgic. I can still remember sitting at the theatres watching the following iconic opening which stuck in my head. A tad eerily prescient today.
Transcript:
Narrator: “My life fades. The vision dims. All that remains are memories. I remember a time of chaos… ruined dreams… this wasted land. But most of all, I remember The Road Warrior. The man we called “Max.” To understand who he was, you have to go back to another time… when the world was powered by the black fuel… and the desert sprouted great cities of pipe and steel. Gone now… swept away. For reasons long forgotten, two mighty warrior tribes went to war, and touched off a blaze which engulfed them all. Without fuel they were nothing. They’d built a house of straw. The thundering machines sputtered and stopped. Their leaders talked and talked and talked. But nothing could stem the avalanche. Their world crumbled. The cities exploded. A whirlwind of looting, a firestorm of fear. Men began to feed on men. On the roads it was a white line nightmare. Only those mobile enough to scavenge, brutal enough to pillage would survive. The gangs took over the highways, ready to wage war for a tank of juice. And in this maelstrom of decay, ordinary men were battered and smashed… men like Max… the warrior Max. In the roar of an engine, he lost everything… and became a shell of a man… a burnt-out, desolate man, a man haunted by the demons of his past, a man who wandered out into the wasteland. And it was here, in this blighted place, that he learned to live again.”
Even if farmers can get deisel at the ramped price, 35% of the worlds urea is currently not being produced as the gulf’s LNG and ammonia plants have been destroyed.
Hooton’s Mad Max apocalypse, especially under this inept CoC, is scary but thanks both of you for your honesty. When you talk with family and friends you realise just how few of them really comprehend what the worst case scenarios would be. I would encourage folk to keep some cash, keep their tanks full, store long-term food and water and “hope”! The only way this madness can go away is for Trump to be jailed or put into a mental asylum, while Netanyahu needs to ‘go’ permanently. Only then can we all return to something resembling ‘normal’.
Speaking of ‘going’….it’s 25th Amendment time….for Luxon, Willis Seymour and Winston.
Possums in the headlights…way in over their heads.
Where’s the steady heads and hands of Jacinda, Robertson, Chippy and Aisher when you need and want them?
Oh wait!!!… they’ve either been voted out or run out of town.
Yeah ..Kiwis really know how to pick a winner… who will …”get the country back on track”.
Such an intelligent savvy lot those Kiwis!
Correction – Ayesha