Iran Plans 6-Month War — We Have 5 Months Left
As the Iran conflict escalates, the real danger may not just be war — but what it does to global fuel supply. Warnings about fuel vulnerability are already emerging in New Zealand, with analysts highlighting how quickly supply chains could collapse.
Iran Signals a Long War
Iran says can fight for months as Israel strikes Beirut hotel
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards has said the country’s forces could fight an intense war for six months against the United States and Israel, which said it struck Tehran’s commanders at a seaside hotel in the heart of Beirut.
RNZ
The Dangerous Illusion of a Quick Deal
Everyone seems to want to believe that Trump can just cut a deal, declare victory and walk away from this Iranian disaster.
The Escalation That Changed Everything
The only red line Iran had was ‘don’t kill our holy man’.
Israel and Trump’s opening move (after blowing 165 Iranian school girls to pieces), was to kill the Ayatollah as he was gathering to discuss the last negotiations.
Trump and Bibi killed the new Ayatollah’s brother-in-law, dad, son and wife.
Why Iran Is Playing the Long Game
Iran knows that the only way they can negotiate peace is after five more months of global suffering.
What Happens If the Strait of Hormuz Stays Closed
Imagine how bad the global economy will be in five months time with the Straits closed?
New Zealand is particularly exposed — as already outlined in recent analysis of the country’s diesel reserves and supply risks.
The Military Reality Behind the Headlines
Iran still has 35,000 drones and 1,500 missiles – Israel and America are running out of interceptor missiles.
Some suggest the date for that is April 16th.
Trump is holding off until April 6th so he can get 10,000 extra marines in place so as to try some madcap military adventure that forces Iran to the negotiating table and reopens the Straits before they run out of interceptors.
A Geopolitical Trap Unfolding
Trump has blundered into the worst geopolitical trap since Vietnam.
He is going to attempt an insane double down to force a surrender to an illegal war he started!
The greatest danger of Trump illegally kidnapping the Venezuelan President and seizing all their oil was that he thought he could get away with these bully boy tactics.
Sure they work with corrupt Revolutionary Governments that can be bribed and bullied, but Iran is a theocracy staffed by religious zealots who can’t be bullied or bribed. They welcome death.
It is in Iran’s interests to keep the Strait closed, while wearing down Israel and America’s interceptor missile stocks.
What This Means for New Zealand
If the Strait is closed for another five months we will run out of petrol, jet fuel and diesel.
This is a reality no one wants to acknowledge.
We suffered to get rid of the Nazis we can do it again to get rid of this vile regime it is worth it
But the regime will still be there when the USA walks away so it is a no win for anybody. Trump’s lie are catching up with him and those that believe him will finally see him as most already do a narcissistic idiot
How thick are those out there who just don’t see it? Iran didn’t start this war – the USA did under ‘instructions’ from the stark raving mad, Netanyahu! Time for Iran to bomb the hell out of Israel and for USA to sit back and do nothing. As I have already said the only way out is for Trump and Netanyahu to GO for Good! I don’t like Iran but they are morally in the right this time. For it to go another 5+ months is untenable but highly likely! Be prepared all of you.
Patrize, you should go live in Iran. The mullahs will hang a desperate wannabee liberal like you in a public square within a week. Bomber is right as a matter of practicality – Iran is a Theocracy staffed by religious zealots who can’t be bullied or bribed. Mary is right as a matter of principle and idealism. You on the other hand exploit the freedoms democracy has bestowed you to tear it and others down. Hypothetical(ish) – if someone bombed and invaded us here in little old NZ who would we expect to defend us?
To answer your question Patrize you seem to be the thickest of them all. Why would you say Iran should bomb the heck out of a major nuclear power? Why would you hold Israel responsible for America’s decisions? By all means stand in support of Iran if you are desperate to do so for some bizarre reason. But even the most diehard antisemites would be hard pressed to say Israel didn’t have legitimate self defence jusification for its actions in this case.
I’ll take on that challenge Paddy, because you are nothing but a Zionist parrot.
Iran is not full of fanatical religious maniacs.
That’s Israel and the United States.
Iran supports people who suffer under illegal occupation and the right of resistance to occupiers is enshrined in international law.
You, as a toady, cannot understand this or, more likely, thinks it doesn’t apply to brown people.
Either you support this right or you think the Warsaw revolt, the French Resistance and Partisan movement were terrorist actions.
It’s black and white you hypocritical prick.
Now, you claim Iran is run by religious fanatics.
These “fanatics” have a fatwa against the use of chemical, biological and nuclear weapons.
They did this following the use of chemical weapons against them by Iraq. Weapons given to Iraq by the US along with targeting data.
They have also signed and ratified the NNPT.
Israel has not signed the NNPT and holds at least 100 warheads which they developed via espionage committed against the US (Pollard affair) and a probable nuclear test with apartheid South Africa.
Their claims of Iranian nuclear weapons are complete bullshit, as has been confirmed by the IAEA many times.
You choose to believe the repeated lies of a racist apartheid ethno-state. A state founded by acts of terrorism against the Palestinian people and the British mandate for Palestine.
Did you know that the deadliest terrorist attack against Britain in the 20th century was committed by Jewish terrorist groups?
Did you know those same Jewish terrorist groups committed mass rape, mass murder and ethnic cleansing against the Palestinian people?
Here’s a question, given you like to refer to non-white people as savages etc…
Why do you support a state whose only claim to land is built on the belief in sky fairies?
A State that thinks they are gods chosen people and everyone else is just chaff for the wind.
That’s why we’re in this situation, far too many people like you willing to indulge a land hungry racist state based on stone age lies.
I’ll wait for your inevitable and baseless accusations of anti-semitism ac it’s all you hasbara scum have left.
Thx Cinder for your knowledge and comments. PG
Thx Paddy for yr viewpoints & while mine are ‘over the top’ to you, how do you see this illegal war ending in our best interests? With T&N still in the mix, with no plan to it end, it won’t bode well for the West! USA is running out of interceptors so are vulnerable. Pls suggest a possible solution.
ps I don’t like Iran so will never live there but I love NZ.
Paddy you are right in saying that f’ing idiot Trump had a decision to make and for some very bizarre reason he took the wrong one. It’s almost like he’s scared of something. That said, spare us all the bullshit about antisemitism. Israel is a huge part of the problem and it’s a complete joke to compare Iran to the Nazis. There is only one country that has been slaughtering innocent people in the name of stealing other people’s land and it not Iran. Iran’s government is the Iranian people’s problem. Why does Israel feel the need to start stealing land in Lebanon to help the people of Iran? Why is Israel bombing civilians in Iran? The name Paddy is not fooling anyone.