BEN MORGAN: Pacific Update – China’s submarine-launched ballistic missile test

On 6 July 2026, China test fired a ballistic missile from a submerged submarine into international waters in the South West Pacific. It is only the second time China has test fired ballistic missiles into international waters, since the 1980s. ^[i] The missile was launched from a submarine in the South China Sea and it travelled approx. 7,000 km (4,300 miles) transiting over Philippines before it landed in the Pacific Ocean between Solomon Islands and Tuvalu.

The test sparked international protests from the US, NATO, and from several Pacific nations. It is the second time that China has conducted a ballistic missile test in the Pacific in the last two years. China’s response was that the test “complied with international law and practice, was not directed against any specific country or target,” and was “a routine part of China’s annual military training.”^[ii]

China did notify Pacific nations shortly before the test, the Japan Timesreported that Japan’s embassy in Beijing got 90 minutes warning and the Guardian noted that “China has followed the letter of the law in informing regional countries, including Australia and New Zealand, that such a test was going to take place, but hardly its spirit.”^[iii]

Notably, China has also called for Pacific nations not to ‘over interpret’ the test that it claims is routine.^[iv] However, this test is subtly different to China’s last ballistic missile test in 2024 and is therefore worth further consideration.

Did Australia’s new alliance with Fiji trigger this test?

A well-canvassed aspect of the test is its relationship to the announcement that Australia and Fiji signed the ‘Ocean of Peace’ alliance. The new alliance is an important piece of Pacific diplomacy and it was signed on the same day as China’s test. Fiji is a key leader amongst the smaller nations of Melanesia and the South West Pacific, an area hotly contested by the US, Australia and China. Australia’s new alliance with Fiji creates a regionally powerful partnership, able to influence other Pacific nations and contest China’s influence.

Some commentary highlights this link, speculating that the missile test is a signal of China’s displeasure with the new treaty. However, this point is debatable because organising missile tests takes lots a planning. The Guardian’s David Vallance summed the situation up nicely when he wrote “It is not likely this was a spur-of-the-moment test. Even for a military whose sophistication has grown immensely over the past decades, and will continue to do so, these things take time. That said, it is possible the signing of the Ocean of Peace Alliance pact caused it to move the test up the timetable.”^[v]

The Japan Times also provided useful context stating that ”More likely it was occasioned by the annual joint naval drills that China and Russia are holding.”^[vi] Notably, the 2026 NATO Summit also took place between 7-10 July, Exercise RIMPAC was about to start, and like the recent Sino-Russian naval exercise is publicly known unlike the sudden elevation of Austro-Fijian security relationships.

In my opinion, it is important to take a wide view of geo-political activity. This test is carefully planned and was designed to send specific messages to the wider international community. It seems unlikely that protesting the Austro-Fijian alliance is the primary objective. Instead China’s test is probably designed to send a message to Washington.

The test must be analysed within wider Sino-American strategic competition

Although there are no indications that war between the US and China is imminent, or even likely. The US remains China’s main competitor, and American foreign policy is currently dangerously difficult to predict because the Trump administration is operating in a manner that creates uncertainty. China’s security policy includes deterring the US from military action, and deterring a nuclear armed power like the US requires China to demonstrate a credible nuclear capability. Therefore as the US becomes less predictable, China is incentivised to ‘flex its nuclear muscles.’

For instance, on Victory Day in September 2025, China paraded its nuclear arsenal including many ballistic and cruise missiles. A powerful force, but one that is over-matched by a key US advantage – America’s nuclear ‘second-strike’ capability.

Second-strike capability, the key to understanding this test

The term ‘second-strike’ refers to a nuclear attack force that cannot be wiped out by a surprise attack. Generally, nuclear-powered and armed submarines are used to provide a ‘second-strike’ capability. The movement and location of nuclear submarines can be concealed so an enemy cannot destroy them in a pre-emptive strike.

On Victory Day 2025 China prominently showcased a variety of nuclear weapons capable of striking the US homeland.^[vii] The recent launch of a submarine launched ballistic missile reinforces this display because it demonstrates China’s ‘second-strike’ capability. China has been able to launch ballistic missile from submarines since 1982 but has not tested (or demonstrated) this capability for decades.

A South China Morning Post analyst – Commodore C. Uday Bhaskar, from the Society for Policy Studies summed up the importance of this test when he opined that “Submarines in this category which have proven second-strike capability are considered the peak of nuclear deterrence.”^[viii]

Australia, Philippines, Japan or any other US-allied power in the Pacific does not have the capability to make a pre-emptive nuclear strike, so there is no need to demonstrate a ‘second-strike’ capability to any country other than the US. However, that does not mean the test doesn’t have secondary objectives like intimidating Philippines or Australia, but the key focus is probably the US.

Implications of China’s actions for the Pacific region

This missile test is part of a larger narrative that includes China’s generally assertive foreign policy in the South and East China Seas, 2024’s missile test, the display of nuclear weapons on Victory Day 2025 and the 2025 circumnavigation of Australia by a Chinese naval task group.

A series of actions that demonstrate that China acknowledges that it is competing with the US, and its allies. Competition that China is clearly worried could lead to military conflict, so it is demonstrating that it has the capability to project power. Whether conventionally in the South China Sea or by sending a task group to circumnavigate Australia, or in a worst-case scenario by having a credible ‘second-strike’ capability to deter US use of nuclear weapons.

Speaking in Ankara before the 2026 NATO Summit, Secretary General Mark Rutte said that Europe and the Indo-Pacific are intertwined and that NATO cannot to be naive about China.^[ix] In the Pacific, naivety also dangerous so it is vital to note China’s actions and ensure that they are closely studied and responded too, in an effective manner that preserves peace and deters escalation.

India’s president visits Indonesia, Australia and New Zealand

In July, India’s President Modi visited Indonesia, Australia and New Zealand. An important series of visits because it provides further evidence that India is interested in expanding its influence east into the Pacific, and that Pacific nations are keen to engage with India.

India’s rise as an economic and security partner in the region is not new. In early 2024, I wrote that “Another nation with an interest in South East Asia is India. Since 1991, and the introduction of its ‘Look East’ doctrine India has quietly extended its interests in South East Asia” and that “India is emerging as a security ‘player’ in the Pacific.”

Later in 2025, I observed that “In 2024, Indian diplomats and warships visited the Pacific, and India announced its intention to build an embassy in Timor Leste” and noted that India is taking more of a security interest in the Pacific.”^[xiv]Modi’s visits indicate that this trend continues.

Since the introduction of India’s ‘Look East’ doctrine in 1991 India has quietly extended its interests in South East Asia. Now approx. 45% of India’s foreign trade is with South East Asia, and trade routes through the South and East China Seas are strategically important for the nation.

‘Act East,’ Modi’s policy, includes funding infrastructure projects and increased security cooperation with Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam, specifically aimed at securing influence and access to the South China Sea.

India’s economic and security interest in the region is currently synchronised with local concern about China’s assertive foreign policy, and with a diminishing level of trust and confidence in the US. Meanwhile, countries committed to ‘freedom of navigation’ and that oppose China’s assertive territorial claims in the region like; Australia, Japan, Philippines, South Korea and New Zealand that are allies or partners of the US are starting to ‘hedge their bets’ by building new economic and military relationships with India. The nation’s large economy, and powerful, nuclear-armed military make it an attractive partner, that may be predictable than the US.

Pacific military exercises – China and Russia’s Ex Joint Sea – US’s RIMPAC

July is summer in the Northern Hemisphere and both China and the US are leading exercises in the Pacific this month. China and Russia conduct annual naval exercises in July that are followed by joint patrols into the North Pacific.^[xv]

This year from 6-13 July, The Russian Pacific Fleet’s flagship the Slava Class cruiser Varyag, a corvette, a submarine rescue ship and a couple of submarines exercised with their Chinese counterparts. The Chinese contingent included the destroyers PLANS Kaifeng and Anshan, the frigate PLANS Wuhu, the supply ship PLANS Kekexilihu, the submarine rescue ship PLANS Yangchenghu and an unnamed submarine.^[xvi]

The exercise is likely have had a focus on submarine warfare, the presence of submarine rescue vessels indicates that this is an area both sides are keen to share knowledge about.

Meanwhile, the US is hosting its largest naval exercise of the year RIMPAC. This exercise started in June and is currently in its at-sea phase, during which the various air and naval task groups exercise together until the end of July.

RIMPAC 2026 involves approx. 30 surface ships, five submarines, 15 country’s land forces, more than 206 aircraft and 30,000 personnel. It is a huge activity that practices many different military skills including the following notable activities:

• Japan Ground Self-Defence Forces 8th Surface to Ship Missile Regiment and the US Army’s 1st Battalion, 623rd Field Artillery carried out a live firing with their respective Type 12 anti-ship missile and High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS).
• 15 surface warships took part in an exercise practicing naval gunfire support.

Deployment and live-firing anti-ship missiles and naval gunfire support are important war-fighting skills for littoral operations, defending or attacking in a coastal environment. It is another example of how seriously the US, its allies and partners are taking the potential for a littoral campaign in places like Taiwan or the South China Sea.

Melanesian Update

A regular update on the Pacific’s least reported trouble spot; Melanesia.

Australia secures another diplomatic win in Melanesia

On 6 July 2026, Australia and Fiji signed two important agreements. The ‘Oceans of Peace Alliance’ officially the Veitacini Mutual Defence Treaty, and the economic Vuvale Union Treaty.

The ‘Oceans of Peace Alliance’ is security focused and elevates Fiji’s defence relationship with Australia to being an ally, both signatories committing to come to the other’s aid in the event of an armed attack in the Pacific.

This is an important event because Fiji is a key leader and influencer in the South West Pacific, and by securing its support Australia creates a security alliance that can limit further Chinese influence in the region. It also represents a significant change in Fiji’s position. Historically, Fiji has sought to remain un-committed and retain productive relationships with all regional powers including China. By entering this relationship with Australia, Fiji commits itself to the supporting the US-led group of nations opposing the expansion of Chinese interests in the region.

The treaty indicates that Sino-American and Sino-Australian diplomatic competition in the Pacific is escalating, forcing nations like Fiji to pick sides. It is an indication that we are likely to see a more divided region in the future, as countries like the US, Australia and China seek more rigid security commitments from their smaller partners.

 

 

 

 

Ben Morgan is TDBs Military Blogger. a defence and security analyst specialising in modern warfare, military adaptation, and operational-level conflict analysis. He posts at Substack. If you like this content and want to support it you can ‘Buy me a Coffee’ here – buymeacoffee.com/benmorgan