Trump’s 60 day war against Iran will be brutal and could see Tehran use the Economic Apocalypse option
Another “last war,”
Politicians shake their heads-
Missiles disagree.
Trump has 60 days now he has alerted Senate to his military strikes to try and bomb Iran into submission.
It’s a huge gamble because the Iranians have room to escalate in a way Trump doesn’t and the closer we get to the midterms, the more politically damaging this can be to Trump.
The Iranian’s feel like Trump has lied repeatedly to them (because he has) can still close off the Bab al-Mandeb Strait which the Saudis have been using to bypass Hormuz…
Iran cannot prevail against the US and Israel via conventional military means, so it has pursued deterrence by inflicting global economic pain through a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint. Emboldened by its success, Tehran may now seek to disrupt another vital maritime corridor.
By activating its regional proxy, the Houthis in Yemen, Iran could orchestrate the closure of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, blocking another vital artery connecting major trade routes between Europe, Asia and the Arab world. Such a move would compound the worldwide economic pressure.
In 2023, more than 10% of the world’s seaborne oil trade passed through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. After the Houthis created maritime insecurity in the region near Yemen in 2024, that share nearly halved for oil and fell to near zero for liquefied natural gas, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
CNN
…so this is the balancing act.
Trump bombing Iran into submission before the Iranians activate the Houthis to close Bab al-Mandeb AND before Iran strikes oil production centres elsewhere.
This is why Trump’s latest threat to bomb Iranian power companies next week is so absurd, sure he could do that, but the Iranians can respond in kind.
Trump has fucked up so magnificently here because this entire fiasco was a rigged war. Netanyahu has been fantasising about finding an American President dumb enough to agree to military action in Iran for 4 decades and Trump was desperate to get the Epstein Files out of the headlines.
Short of putting troops on the ground or nuking the entire Iranian peninsula, Trump’s military options are horrifically futile and limited while Iran has space tom escalate.
The decision to execute and assassinate the entire Iranian leadership has led to a far more hardline regime who have been gifted by Trump and Netanyahu the one thing they’ve always sought, legitimacy in the eyes of the people they oppress.
We are all going to pay the price here.
Remember, Luxon initially wanted to support this illegal war on Iran. Think of that as you fill up this weekend.
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Trump is a stark staring lunatic, totally insane and without any working brain or integrity. HE has backed HIMSELF into a corner which makes him look like a ‘worn-out’, ‘well passed his best’ Dictator. The awful truth for NZ is that Luxon et al have placed us so far up Trump’s rear end that we could end up with serious repercussions as a result. Luxon, shut your mouth, disappear for a while – you’re good at that – and give NZ time to take a deep breath and walk away. You have horribly set NZ up to fail! He’s NOTa pop-star! Grow up!