Predictions on 7 Māori electorates
The Māori electorates could decide the 2026 election — and the battle between Te Pāti Māori, New Zealand Labour Party and the Greens is shaping up as one of the most important contests in the country.
Here are my punts on the seven Māori electorates.
The Māori Electorates are a lot more conservative than most punters reckon, but they have also had an influx of younger voters thanks to the enormous demographic bubble within Māori-dom that has 70% of the population under 40.
How these younger voters vote will have enormous implications on the final vote.
If TPM launch a kakariki alliance MMP voting strategy where they tell supporters in the Māori electorates to Candidate vote TPM and Party vote Green it has the potential of generating an MMP Overhang while recycling their wasted Party vote to the greens which ensures they remain the 3rd largest party.
This one strategy, Candidate vote TPM – Party vote Green, could be te difference between winning and losing the election this year.
Electorate Predictions
Hauraki-Waikato: Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke is a superstar but she has many around her who leech off her success and I believe are advising her very poorly. The recent social media posting fucks ups are evidence of her being very poorly advised. She is still deeply loved and she should win this seat for TPM.
Ikaroa-Rāwhiti: Cushla Tangaere-Manuel is an amazing candidate for Labour and she will retain this seat for Labour.
Tāmaki Makaurau: I think Oriini has been very flakey since she won a staggering by-election win and that Labour’s new candidate Kerrin Leoni has the gravitas for an electorate as important as this one. I think Kerrin has the edge going into this election.
Te Tai Hauāuru: Debbie Ngarewa-Packer should win this comfortably.
Te Tai Tokerau: TTT is a kingdom unto themselves but Aperahama Edwards is such an amazing candidate, I think he will win it ahead of Willow.
Te Tai Tonga: Mananui Ramsden is an incredible candidate for Labour. He is only standing in the Electorate. He, like Aperahama Edwards, is an amazing next generation of Māori leaders and I would be shocked if he didn’t win Te Tai Tonga.
Waiariki: Rawiri Waititi would romp home here.
I think TPM will win 4 seats with certainty, plus maybe Tāmaki Makaurau.
I think Labour will win 2 seats, plus maybe Tāmaki Makaurau.
If TPM win 4 or 5 seats while pushing their Party vote to the Greens, the Left will mathematically win the election.
Where Māori vote and who they vote for will determine the 2026 Election.
