The NZ Economy and global economy will go into recession because of Trump
Iran war escalation could trigger global recession, IMF warns
Growth forecasts cut for US and global economy, while UK suffers sharpest downgrade in G7
The Guardian
This is how a global recession crashes into New Zealand
Worst-case scenarios for the New Zealand economy have spiralled in just weeks.
Four weeks ago, inflation risk from this illegal war sat at 3.7%.
Two weeks later, it was 4.2%.
Last week, Treasury quietly muttered a worst-case scenario of 7.5%.
The economy is in free fall.
Spending data worse than it appears, Retail NZ says
New Zealanders forking out more for fuel are obscuring a significant drop in other types of spending, Retail NZ says.
Worldline data for March showed card spending overall rose 0.5% but Retail NZ chief executive Carolyn Young said it hid a 33% surge at petrol stations.
“The 0.5% headline growth is a mirage,” she said.
RNZ
ANZ Bank New Zealand now expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to hike the OCR three times before the election.
The BusinessNZ–BNZ services survey shows contraction for a second straight month.
Those so-called green shoots of recovery? They were never real.
NZ economic growth was a ‘pig in a python’ and temporary, UK economist says
A visiting British economist says New Zealand’s much vaunted “green shoots of growth” at the end of last year was not real growth but a “pig in a python” ‒ a temporary injection of cash into the economy.
And he says without real growth, New Zealand will fare badly from the oil supply shock that is about to hit.
Andrew Hunt is a UK-based independent economist and investment strategist who frequently provides macro-economic analysis on New Zealand through his firm, Andrew Hunt Economics Ltd, and in partnership with Amova Asset Management. Hunt was in the country last week to speak at Amova’s annual summit, where he presented a dystopian outlook for the country.
Stuff
And now the real economic pain begins.
TDB warned that the recovery was more mirage than reality — and now we’re staring down 6% unemployment and inflation north of 7.5%.
Donald Trump’s military escalation — driven by pressure from Israel — is hammering our economy, and we had nothing to do with it.
But here’s the part we did choose.
This Government has borrowed more than Labour Party did — without a once-in-a-century pandemic to justify it.
They’ve borrowed $14 billion for tax cuts we couldn’t afford.
$3 billion for landlord loopholes.
Hundreds of millions for oil and tobacco subsidies.
All while hollowing out public services.
This is a slow-moving disaster.
Over 200,000 Kiwis have fled the country since this Government came to power.
And this is who helped make it worse
Because this is what happens when short-term politics replaces long-term planning.
The sugar hit wears off.
The bills arrive.
And it’s ordinary people who pay.
Remember.
Every time you get punched in the wallet, it’s because of Trump.
He has led America into its worst geopolitical blunder since Vietnam War — and he can’t get out.
He’s gotten away with it because of the silence.
Let’s be clear.
National Party, ACT and NZ First have enabled this.
They have refused to criticise or challenge Trump. Instead, they’ve lined up to flatter him.
Winston Peters met with Marco Rubio hours before Trump backed down on his strike.
Imagine if, instead of grovelling, Winston had actually challenged them.
Imagine if New Zealand had stood for something.
Instead of a statesman moment, we got silence.
And now you’ll feel it.
In your rent.
At the petrol pump.
At the supermarket.
As unemployment rises.
As inflation spikes.
As instability spreads.
This is what economic shock looks like when it’s imported — and then made worse by the choices at home.
And there’s f wits out there saying this is all worth it so that Iran does not have a nuke. Something they didn’t have and were not trying to build until this stupid wanker Trump listened to the detestable Netanyahu. I d be more concerned that the Israeli fanatics have nukes.