SHOCK 0.2% GDP FLATLINE! Optimistic economists and free market cheerleader journalists get it wrong again!
New Zealand’s latest GDP result of just 0.2% growth has exposed a major gap between economic forecasts and reality, with banks like Westpac and ASB predicting stronger outcomes that never materialised.
0.2% GDP: what the latest NZ data actually shows
The 0.2% GDP was a pathetic result especially as all the optimistic economists and free market cheerleader journalists were telling us that we would see 0.5% or 0.6% growth…
Economists’ forecasts vs reality
Westpac and ASB are the most optimistic, forecasting a 0.4% lift for the quarter. Kiwibank and BNZ are expecting 0.3% growth for the quarter.
Why ANZ got it right
And ANZ comes in as the most downbeat, picking just 0.2%.
Here’s hoping it lands at the upper end. We’re going to need those extra growth points as the war starts pulling activity back.
If we get 0.4%, that would translate to a 1.6% rise in GDP over 2025, marking the first full year of per-capita growth since 2022, Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon said.
That’s something to smile about, surely.
…they were all wrong except ANZ!
The Reserve Bank was forecasting 0.5!
You can’t have almost quarter of a million Kiwis flee New Zealand over the last two years thanks to National smashing Labour’s infrastructure pipeline and believe the green shoots of recovery are here.
Why the economic outlook is being questioned
I have argued before that the optimistic economists and free market cheerleader journalists keep skewing the true vandalism to the New Zealand economy because they have to be upbeat and super positive all the time and that this leads to a terribly unbalanced view of what is really happening.
Everyone except ANZ was predicting twice the growth that we actually got – that is the story and yet it is utterly ignored.
How global events could make things worse
The petrol price inflation we are about to be hit by with the illegal war in Iran will drown those green shoots of recovery.
To paraphrase 90’s supergroup, Destiny’s Child, I do not believe that we are ready for this Jelly.
If forecasts consistently miss reality by this much, the real question isn’t just what the economy is doing — it’s who we’re trusting to tell us the truth about it.
Descibing CoC’s performance, to quote Megyn Kelly, “micropenis”.
BTW these results hasn’t even factored in recent events yet.
As long as this country continues with an undersupplied rigged electricity market there will be minimal growth. Mills and manufacturers closing down around the country due to electricity prices/shortage.
Fonterra abandoning job creating value added brands in favour of reverting to a colonial commodity economy.
Nact attempting to kill off the construction sector.
The Herald headlined it two conscutive quarters of growth but 0.2 percent wouldnt even account for the margin of error.
Well… Willis, Seymour and Bishop are the Finance Ministers and Luxon is the CEO of those ministers…
If this was the ‘real’ ‘ free market’ world, that they are psycophantically wedded to, they would all be asked to leave the company as the growth, growth, growth targets have not been met.
They were all big tough know alls before the election but Willis and Seymour’s performance at the Queenstown Finance Minister’s Debate in the lead up to the election should have set the alarm bells ringing.
It was painfully clear that they didn’t know what the fuck they were talking about and i just knew, right there and then, that N.Z. was about to be fucked over bigtime.
And so it has come to pass …and all the ‘Ben & Jerry Icecream’ eating class, who borrow, spend and hope Nikki No Boats Willis sprayed money at, have now spent that money on The Gold Coast, Rarotonga or Fiji…
That is out of N.Z circulation… forever!…
Gone!! ….not to mention the $$$640 million dollar ferry cancellation fine to Hyundai that she lumbered the N.Z. taxpayer with….money also gone overseas… forever .
We are losing money at an alarming rate…but there they, and their psycophants,Hosking, Ryan Bridges, Du plussie Allen / Soper, Garner , Laws and the rest of them are …still spreading the propaganda that they are somehow masters of the economy.
Delusion is a mental illness…but there’s no helping that lot…too far gone!
And further to this post:
We only got a.2% GDP rise thanks to tourists.
International tourism is about to fall on its face thanks to the actions of Trump and Netanyahu.
And we saw an almost $400 million dollar increase in capital outflow.
That’s overseas investors taking money out of our economy. The exact same capital outflow which has crippled the UK.
Just think what the privatisation plans of the Coalition of Corrupt Cunts will do to increase that.