Trump is beginning to panic – Iran will never allow the Strait to reopen
As tensions escalate between the United States and Iran, the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz is sending shockwaves through global energy markets. For New Zealand, which relies heavily on imported fuel, the economic consequences of a prolonged disruption could be severe.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important oil shipping routes, carrying roughly a fifth of global petroleum supply.
Escalation Between the United States and Iran
Trump is beginning to panic as the magnitude of his illegal war with Iran plays out…
White House defines Trump’s demand for ‘unconditional surrender’
The White House has offered a novel definition for “unconditional surrender”, after US President Donald Trump made that demand of Iran over the weekend.
…if he thinks he can simply shrug, claim victory and move onto Cuba, he has another thing coming.
Decades of Claims About Iran’s Nuclear Programme
Netanyahu has been trying to claim Iran was mere moments away from a Nuclear weapon and the West must attack them for 40 years now and no American Administration was dumb enough to ever go along with it because every single time the CIA geeks and Military Goons war game attacking Iran it always ends in a blood drenched massacre with refugee waves, violent religious schisms, regional wars, a couple of capital American ships sunk and a massive energy crisis.
Crossing Iran’s Strategic Red Line
By killing the Ayatollah first, America stepped over Iran’s only red line.
The new far more hard line Son wants America to suffer and so they are mining the Strait and refusing to allow anyone through.
This will have a cascade effect…
Saudi oil giant warns of ‘catastrophic consequences’ if Strait of Hormuz not opened soon
… oh it will be catastrophic…
Why the Strait of Hormuz Matters for New Zealand
The South Koreans are looking at ending refined oil exports, NZ gets 48% of our oil from them.
If they shut down exports, it will be crippling to NZ’s economy.
NZ has 30 days of petrol on shore and a further 30 days in tankers heading here – BUT – those tankers can sell to other clients before they get to NZ, so we HOPE they come here, but if the situation goes longer, that oil can be sold before it gets here and they will turn around.
Economic Consequences of a Hormuz Closure
Bernard Hickey has the report on what sitting the strait means for NZ’s fuel…
Report advised on Hormuz risks, including forecast of a hit to GDP
An Envisory-Castalia report on Fuel Security for the Government last year considered the risk of a major disruption such as an extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz and estimated a GDP hit of upwards of 1% of GDP. It estimated prices would increase by twice as much as during the Ukraine crisis.
…I think the 1% GDP destruction is optimistic.
Trump has damaged so much with this illegal war.
He believed that he could bully religious zealots the way he did with a corrupt crony Revolutionary Venezuelan Government.
He can’t and he’s put his leg in a bear trap and is thrashing around making it worse.
Iran wants America to suffer and have no intention of allowing the Strait to reopen until they have had their pound of flesh.
If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for an extended period, the consequences will reach far beyond the Middle East. For energy-importing nations like New Zealand, the disruption could trigger price shocks, supply shortages and wider economic instability — demonstrating once again how geopolitical conflicts can quickly become global crises.
