Old Zealand vs New Zealand: The 2026 Election Divide

Election 2026 may be decided not by ideology — but by age.

Is New Zealand slowly becoming “Old Zealand”? In her latest column, Verity Johnson argues the country feels stalled, ageing and unwilling to confront looming crises. As Election 2026 approaches, the political divide may be less Left versus Right — and more generational.

I believe that Verity Johnson is one of the best newspaper columnists in the country and her latest column once again cuts to the heart of NZ culture…

Verity Johnson’s Diagnosis of a “Middle-Aged” Nation

NZ turned into a late middle aged stagnant landscape

In any relationship, you never want to ask the big questions.

Not the really, really big ones like, “how did we get here?” Or, “do I want to spend the rest of my life with someone who snores like a chainsaw with sleep apnoea?” Or, in this case, “do I still like where this is going?”

But there comes a time, especially on a public holiday of national soul searching, when you have to roll over, look at the person sleeping next to you, and think, “God. When did you get so middle aged?”

I’m talking about NZ. The nation. The person in bed next to us. And we, the people, the long suffering spouse lying awake at 3:00am, staring at the fly poop on the ceiling and questioning everything. This Waitangi Weekend, I rolled over and saw NZ clearly for the first time in a long time. And I saw what it is. It’s decidedly middle aged.

A vanilla, lacklustre, limp, lifeless, bloodless, restless, slump of a Nation that’s snoring through an oncoming crisis like a chainsaw with sleep apnoea? One that’s stopped planning a cool future for us. It’s stopped thinking about our life together. It’s stopped caring about anyone under 55. For years now, it’s attitude has been, “Yeah, that’ll be a problem in 10 years or so. But I won’t be around for that. So, I’m just gonna sit back and enjoy being wealthy and sorted – sucks to be young!”

It’s a late middle aged paradise. And absolute hell for anyone under 55, who’ll statistically still be alive in 25 years’ time. We’ll still be here when all these decisions, the ones determinedly NOT being made, will come back to come back to haunt us, like vengeful geese.

…the woke Wellington Left despise her because she’s not dogmatic enough and strays from woke tenants of faith where as the Right hate her because she’s an Aucklander who is right.

And Christ, is she right about this.

The Rise of “Old Zealand”

New Zealand has been beaten by Old Zealand, Boomers who have benefitted from cradle to the grave subsidisation of their entire lives who pulled the ladder up behind them to doom every generation after them to a user pays culture.

This is the reason why the voting age must be dropped to 16 on a climate change burning planet, because Boomers won’t be here when the worst climate change hits in a decade.

Election 2026 is Old Zealand vs New Zealand.

What the Polling Data Shows

Bernard Hickey makes this point from the latest polling data…

Older vaccine-sceptic men prefer the coalition. Young women don’t.

A majority of male voters (54%) supported the centre-right, whereas 58% of female voters supported the centre-left. Voters under 40 years old were more supportive of the centre-left at 57%, whereas over 60 year old voters are more supportive of the centre-right, at 60%.

The Kaka

…Old Zealand are boomer white culture war males who react strongly at Trans, climate change, Māori, vaccines, the Treaty and are virulently pro-Israel and Trump.

They are culturally threatened, have property and are economically anxious.

They are driven by Social Media Hate algorithms.

They have power because they religiously vote to ensure their privilege.

The good news for New Zealand is that Old Zealand are a shrinking electorate.

Gen X: The Deciding Generation in 2026

In the battle between Old Zealand and New Zealand in the 2026 election, Gen X’ers are going to be the difference.

Look at the demographics.

Estimation for 2025 (or more recent)

If similar age proportions hold, then:

• If 60+ voters are ~28-30% of the voter roll, and
• Under-40 voters are ~35%,

then in a total roll of ~3.6 million enrolled voters (approx. current size), you’d expect:

• 60+ voters ≈ ≈ 1.0 to 1.1 million
• 18-40 voters ≈ ≈ 1.25 million

Polling data tells us that you are more likely to be a reactionary conservative if you are over 60 (and male) and are far more likely to vote Left if you are 18-40 and female.

There are around 1.3 million Kiwis aged between 40 and 60, that is Gen X, we are the ones who are going to be the decider in this election.

As a generation, do we want to side with the conservatives of Old Zealand or support New Zealand?

Thanks to our middle class woke activists during the social media cancel culture Lynch mobs, we drove many young men into the arms of the reactionary right, we need to show those men that there is a place on the Left for them.

Can New Zealand Outgrow Old Zealand?

Old Zealand trades in the spite and malice of culture war hate while in lockstep with the Billionaire class, the Banks, the speculators and the polluters, isn’t it time to break the grip of entrenched interests?

It’s time for Gen X to step up to help Millennials and Gen Z win the 2026 Election.

Old Zealand is dying metaphorically and literally. New Zealand is the future. Which one wins the Election?

Election 2026 will test whether Old Zealand continues to dominate, or whether a younger, future-focused New Zealand takes control.