Tamaki Makaurau By-election Week 4
We enter week 4 of the Tamaki Makaurau By-election and there are still large divergences in the campaigns.
The Māori Party have opted for a Social Media First policy with their candidate Oriini still mostly available directly to Māori Party supporters online.
She did make a step out of this space with interviews on Waatea with Dale Husband this week which seems very late to the game in terms of exposure.
The Māori Party must be very confident that their Social Media First campaign is working for them.
Labour on the other hand have had Peeni out everywhere in person with social media to back up his external campaigning.
It’s a strong traditional campaign and he does seem to have a lot of momentum.
One interesting development was the candidacy of Kelvyn Alp, founder of far right conspiracy site CounterSpin.
The only debate booked to date for this by-election is 20th September on Waatea.
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Labour should sit this out do an Epsom scenario work with their potential coalition partners?
They should but they never use MMP to its full advantage.
Look at the results of John Key gaming the system in Epsom
Works very well for ACT.
The Epsom scenario is for a party that has to win that seat to be in Parliament (Act being under 5% for many years). That scenario is not relevant here because Te Pati Māori has several seats.
I can’t see Labour agreeing that it will not contest Te Pati Māori in the Māori seats. For instance is Labour never going to stand again in Auckland Central or National never going to stand again in Tamaki?
It is good to see a relatively quiet contest so far-leave it up to the voters for once.
Labour has put a bit of loot in though, so it will all be on eventually. A smart LP would have had an eye on 2026 and made a agreement with TPM, who need to be over the 5% threshold to guarantee a Labour/Green/TPM Govt.
I know a number of LP members and veterans and sadly many have never really accepted MMP despite the evidence that shows they need to.
Te Pati Maori does not depend on the 5% threshold to be in Parliament. Instead it wins the Maori seats. In fact Te Pati Maori wins sufficient seats that it creates an overhang in Parliament. That is, the number of seats Te Pati Maori wins exceeds their percentage of the Party vote.
Well aware of that, thank you for your erudite comment Wayne.
I make a different point-namely TPM need to get their party vote up to allow the numbers for a Labour/Green/Te Pati Māori grouping to have a chance of taking office.