Tāmaki Makaurau By-election break down – Who should run? Who can win? Plus the most important thing before all else
With candidate nominations closing on Wednesday for Māori Party and Friday for Labour, questions of who should ru, who can win, plus the most important thing before all else in this Tāmaki Makaurau By-election should be examined.
Firstly – in solidarity with Tarsh Kemp!
She was working for her people right up until she died!
I had the opportunity to bump into Tarsh a couple of times. She was always joyous.
She has been laid to rest and her working right up until her passing is an example to the rest of us.
My sadness at her early death is matched by my fury that she leaves us under the cloud of false allegations levelled at her, the Manurewa Marae and the Māori Party over political corruption.
Allegations that have seen no charges laid despite multiple inquires.
Allegations made by a bitter Destiny Church splinter group.
When Destiny Church isn’t bashing librarians, attacking other faiths on the street and abusing story telling drag queens, they are making malicious allegations of corruption.
The mainstream media never like to tell you that the allegations against Tarsh, the Manurewa Marae and Māori Party were made by Destiny Church factions.
The true corruption is the smear against Tarsh, the Manurewa Marae and the Māori Party!
Just needed to get that off my chest!
Rest in peace Comrade Kemp – you have earned it!
Secondly – who should run?
The election will be between Labour and the Māori Party, NZF won’t put up a candidate because they want to trash the Māori electorates and I genuinely don’t think ACT could find a Māori to run in the electorate. National had Hinurewa Te Hau who was a strong candidate and she should be encouraged to stand again. Hannah Tamaki might run again if Destiny Church think they can grandstand on it.
Greens – I don’t think the Greens will want to get blamed by either Labour OR the Māori Party for vote splitting and the previous candidate was Darleen Tana who is no longer in the party so the conventional wisdom says they would sit this one out, but then again Marama Davidson has the mana to pull off a win.
Labour – Peeni hated losing by 46 votes last time so he will not wish to risk being beaten by a larger amount because of a sympathy vote going towards the Māori Party. If he doesn’t stand, that would be his political ceiling inside the Party. Willie Jackson could be considered but Peeni is 20 years younger than him and would be a better build towards a generational representation inside the electorate. Peeni is a great guy who has a lot of support.
Māori Party – John Tamihere is the obvious candidate. Younger forces inside the Party will want a young dynamic candidate and some are already throwing in their hat, but the most strategic choice would be Tamihere. He held the electorate as a Labour candidate in 2002 and with the electoral tide coming in for the Māori Party, having Tamihere inside as a Politician to lead the negotiations for a possible change of Government next year would do more for Māori Political aspiration than almost any single other thing short of Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke being elected Prime Minister.
Thirdly – who can win?
Tāmaki Makaurau is the largest urban Māori electorate, it has enormous political muscle and the needs are deep. It’s for Labour or the Māori Party to win or lose, but there is the potential for a gifted orator outside those 2 who could capture the imagination of voters so both have to be serious about winning.
My gut is that if JT runs, he’ll win. If the Maori Party run anyone else, Labour could win.
A lot will come down to the on the ground muscle. The Māori Party have built a formidable volunteer base in Tāmaki Makaurau and that could have real impact.
Finally – the most important part before all else?
The most important part of this by-election is the manner in which the candidates and supporters behave.
Any harsh or nasty language towards each other and each others parties will be seized upon by The Platform, ZB, NZ Herald, Mike Hosking, Luke Malpass, Heather Duplicity Allen, The Centrist, Chris Trotter, etc etc etc as proof positive that Labour can never work with the Māori Party.
There is more at stake here than just the winning or losing of the by-election, if the battle gets nasty, all that venom will be put on display by the right as evidence that the Māori Party can’t work with Labour.
What Labour and the Māori Party, have to do is use this by-election and the debate to show how respectful they can be, how the Kaupapa can be promoted positively as a show case of what can be achieved using Māori values.
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Orini Karapa… newslady has announced her TPM candidacy. Kiri maybe not a gr8 option given the release of her car crime/drama transcript yesterday.
This will turn into a bitter fight between labour and TPM. Lefties cannot help been nasty to each other.
Heh, just as the right parties are so sidelined by class realities in this Māori electorate–they do not look like even running–a can of “whip-arse” will come out if they do…
It will be great to see attention on Labour and Te Pāti Māori without the Epsom twerp, Baldrick, and Vampire Peters lurking around.
It won’t be bitter and why do you make such a comment perhaps you are hoping it will.
The real prize is a 2026 General election win for a Labour/TPM/Green grouping, so I just agree with Martyn’s points really–keep it seemly and respectful with an eye on ’26.
Rarely, I have no candidate preference here, it is up to the voters. It will be close again because NZ Labour are stubborn with some electorates, but TPM should take it.
If labour win the by election strategically it would be good because labour will get a list MP from Hamilton Georgie Dansey and will give her a chance to win one of the Hamiltons electorate the next election this by election has long-term interest for the overall election in 2026
Any attempt by the Labour party to steal this election will just be further proof of Hipkins’ perfidy.
A lot will come down to the on the ground muscle. The Māori Party have built a formidable volunteer base in Tāmaki Makaurau and that could have real impact.
Zohran Mamdani’s win in the Democratic priamary for the New York Mayoralty, is an object lesson in how this campaign could be won.
This is what democracy looks like.
https://jacobin.com/2025/06/zohran-mamdani-canvassing-nyc-mayor
Zohran Mamdani’s Canvassing Operation Is What Democracy Looks Like
By Liza Featherstone
The kind of mass volunteer door-knocking operation that New York City mayoral campaign for Zohran Mamdani has built is the way to fight rising authoritarianism and the erosion of democracy….
In the midst of a rising authoritarian federal government in the United States, the Mamdani campaign is feeding a hunger for participation through old-school campaign practices of talking with and persuading neighbors. If part of the remedy for rising authoritarianism is more small-d democratic engagement, Mamdani is delivering it.
…One week in late May, from Monday through Sunday, the campaign knocked on 95,321 doors, up from about 40,000 per week throughout April. As of late last week, the campaign had knocked on 644,755 doors and called 261,051 people. A single canvass in Bedford-Stuyvesant this weekend knocked on more than 9,000 doors. A joint canvass with socialist city councilor Alexa Avilés on Sunday in Sunset Park knocked on more than 3,800 doors…..
The Māori Party have built a formidable volunteer base, they will need it.
Labour will pull out all the stops to get canvasses and door knockers on the grouwd, parachuting in van loads of trade unionists from the Labour Party affiliated trade unions. A tactic Labour have used in the past in the Tamaki Makaurau and Te Tai Tokerau electorates.
The Green Party are right to sit this one out. Yes they don’t want to be accused of vote splitting, but more than this if they want to make common cause with the Maori Party to push Labour in a more progressive direction. The Greens could go even further than this and give mataerial support and their endorsement to Te Pati Maori campaign, as Brad Lander did for Zohran Mamdani,