GUEST BLOG: Ben Morgan – Putin dangerous as defeat in Ukraine looms ever closer

Although Russia’s offensive operations continue, it is clear they have lost momentum. Activity continues but there are no significant gains, even at Bakhmut the point of ‘main effort’ Russian advances can only be measured in metres. Large numbers of Wagner Group and Russian airborne soldiers, Russia’s best soldiers continue to be killed trying to take the town. Along the remainder of the frontline, small Russian attacks and artillery bombardments continue. 

North of Bakhmut on the Kremina-Svatove Line, blows are exchanged with little or no change in frontline positions.  Fifty kilometres south of Bakhmut, at Avdiivdka Russia is attacking but again only in small groups and with limited success.   However, this area is developing into an area of interest for Russian forces probably probing for an opportunity to break the Ukrainian line in the east. If Russia was to make gains in Avdiivdka then it might be able to put pressure on Bakhmut from the south.  

Russian tactics are evolving and recent changes include; the development of ‘storm groups,’ small teams consisting of a couple of dozen soldiers and half a dozen vehicles, normally a couple of tanks and three or four armoured personal carriers. The manpower of a storm group normally consists of about half new conscripts or ex-prisoners and about half experienced professional soldiers. The inexperienced soldiers or prisoners being used to advance on an enemy position, drawing fire and allowing the tanks and professional soldiers to identify Ukrainian targets.  The fact that the Russian Army would use tactics like this demonstrates the callous attitude of its leadership and in turn why most Russian soldiers are unmotivated.   

And; there are clear signs that Russia is reaching a point of exhaustion not only because on the battlefield the size and scale of their attacks is diminishing but also because their logistics support is collapsing.  The International Institute of Strategic Studies recently estimated that 40% of Russia’s total tank force is destroyed, including 50% of their modern fleet. Forcing Russia to use its vast reserves of obsolescent tanks and fighting vehicles because Russian industry cannot produce new tanks quickly enough.  Meaning that Russia is now refurbishing and bringing tanks like the T54/55 into the frontline, a model that entered service in 1948! Likewise, antiquated trucks are being pulled out of reserve stocks and brought forwards.  At this stage the question is whether Russian industry will be able to catch up and start providing new equipment to the army in Ukraine? It seems unlikely, and that without Chinese support and with pressure from sanctions Russia will struggle to mobilise the industrial capacity to change this situation. Last week John Kirby, United States Security Spokesman stated that Russia is negotiating with North Korea offering food for weapons and ammunition.  Asking pariah state North Korea for help clearly indicates that China is not supporting Russia and demonstrates the material difficulties Russia is facing. 

Further, at a human level Russian casualties are enormous.  The United Kingdom’s Secretary of Defence last week estimating that Russia has suffered 220,000 casualties. This figure was consistent with United States Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Miley’s estimate of approximately 200,000, the general commenting to Congress that “Their offensive aspirations have come essentially to a halt. Their capabilities have been, their ground forces have been absolutely impaled on this Ukrainian bayonet, so to speak.”  200-220,000 casualties in little over a year is huge, the United States suffered roughly the same number across 19 years of fighting in Vietnam. Likewise, in the 10 years that they fought in Afghanistan, the Soviet Union suffered about 70,000 casualties.   

Meanwhile, 14,000 Ukrainian soldiers trained in the United Kingdom recently arrived back in Ukraine. This is on top of about 20,000 trained in Poland, Germany, the United States and other NATO countries in 2022.  Ukraine’s current tank fleet is larger than when the war started because of the numbers of Russian tanks Ukraine has captured. The current balance being about 900 Ukrainian tanks to about 1800 Russian tanks, not including later model NATO tanks that are now starting to arrive in country.  This disparity in numbers is significant, however as NATO tanks start to arrive this will reduce and most analysts expect about 250 Challengers, Leopards and Abrams tanks to trickle into Ukraine in the first half of this year.  Already, 30-40 are in country and their impact when combined with excellent training and motivated crews will be significant. 

 Although you may hear commentators state that Russia has the initiative, this is not correct. Russian activity should not be confused with the ability to rapidly transform the battle, or ‘holding the initiative’ in military terminology. At this stage the next ‘play’ will happen at a time and place of Ukraine’s choosing.  Russia has tried hard to initiate a change in the status quo and failed. Now Russia, with its forces spread thin on a wide front from the Dnipro River, east to Vuhledar then north through Bakhmut to the border is weak.  Ukraine holds ‘interior lines’ and is currently defensively postured, meaning it can pull tanks back from the front and centralise them. And; with 900 tanks at its disposal Ukraine can already create a reserve ready for offensive operations.  The arrival of more NATO tanks will only improve their position. 

So, Russia is stuck waiting and hoping that when the weather turns and the ground dries out, they can hold their line.  Defence Minister, Sergei Shoigu’s plans for enlarging the Russian army are worthless if Russia is ejected from Ukraine; or even if just the land corridor to Crimea can be captured. If Ukraine can isolate land access to Crimea, it is only a matter of time before the Kerch Bridge is destroyed; and Crimea becomes untenable and losing Crimea would be a significant blow to Putin. 

And; this is why we are seeing a range of dangerous Russian activity this week.  Putin’s nuclear sabre rattling continues and China was quick to respond rebuking Russia; demonstrating that it has no tolerance for nuclear threats. However, Nobel Prize winning Russian journalist Dmitri Muratov expressed his concerns about Russian propaganda that he feels is preparing the Russian people for the use of nuclear weapons.  A dangerous trend highlighted by an expert, reminding the world that we cannot entirely ignore Putin’s rhetoric and that policy makers and the wider community needs to be prepared to face more threats of this nature from Putin.

Another example of dangerous Russian activity is the increase in Russian naval activity in the North Sea.  Russian submarines were reported around the Norwegian oil fields this week. Probably, gathering information and reconnoitring oil infra-structure; or more likely the myriad of submarine communications cables that provide Europe’s internet connections.  It seems unlikely that Russia would directly attack a NATO country’s oil or communications infrastructure because that would immediately require a NATO response.  NATO has about 340,000 well-trained professional soldiers ready across Europe backed by hundreds of modern tanks, fighter aircraft and the best intelligence and surveillance capabilities in the world so provoking NATO would create a significant threat to Russia.  

At sea we know that after the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage in 2022, NATO immediately doubled its presence in the Baltic deploying 30 ships into the area.  Likewise, surveillance of the North Sea and the famous ‘GIUK;’ or Greenland, Iceland, United Kingdom gap increased. Hence, this week we saw film of Russian submarine periscopes and other evidence of Russian activity in the North Sea.  Video footage being released publicly is probably to deter Russian activity because ‘if you can be filmed you can be attacked;’ and it is a very good demonstration of NATO’s surveillance capability. 

Russia is also active in the Pacific, desperately trying to demonstrate its relevance as a world power by testing missiles in the Sea of Japan.  Although far from Europe, this provocative action contributes to the developing picture of Russia running out of options in Ukraine and looking for ways to scare NATO away from supporting Ukraine. 

In summary, the next few weeks are likely to be similar; the latest weather information from Ukraine indicates that the ground there will probably remain muddy and essentially impassable for armoured formations until April.  Therefore, it seems unlikely that we will see large-scale Ukrainian activity in the next few weeks but look out for more information operations by Ukraine; either to turn attention away from a targeted area or to create uncertainty by claiming that Ukraine needs more support before it can launch its offensive. It is also likely that we will see an information vacuum appear in the area that will be targeted, there will be no news stories or information about the area in the media as Ukraine diverts attentions elsewhere. 

It is likely, that we will see more Ukrainian attacks in depth like the recent attacks on sites in Crimea. Combined with ongoing but seldom reported partisan activity, these attacks will contribute information to Ukraine and reduce Russian morale and logistics capacity.  

And; as Ukraine prepares for its offensive, we will see Russia working hard to threaten NATO and its allies. While using its rotation as Chair of the United Nations Security Council to try and plead its case to the disenfranchised nations of the world, aiming to retain its relevance by casting itself as a great power damaged and oppressed by the West. 

At this time, I am mindful of New Zealand Prime Minister, Peter Fraser who was a rare representative of a small country during the establishment of the United Nations and argued unsuccessfully against the Security Council’s structure that guaranteed seats to contemporary ‘great powers;’ the United States, the Soviet Union, the United Kingdom, China and France and enshrined a power of veto for each of them. Unfortunately, short-sighted pragmatism prevailed and 80 years later we have the farcical situation of pariah state Russia, led by a President charged with war crimes, Chairing the world’s premiere security forum.   

 

Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer and TDBs military blogger