GUEST BLOG: Ian Powell – Is Delta Plus coming (the Boris variant)?

On 20 October the BBC published the kind of news that no-one would have wanted to know about: The heading alone was scary: Covid-19: New mutation of Delta variant under close watch in UK.

This possible new more deadly Covid-19 variant than Delta is being referred to by some as ‘Delta Plus’. However, caution is required. This is investigative work with testing currently in progress. No conclusions have yet been made. Although unlikely, depending on how things unfold, there is potential risk to New Zealand.

Nevertheless, given how much effort the United Kingdom government misled by Boris Johnson has put into assisting the further mutation of Delta, if the worst happens then I would argue the new variant should be called ‘Boris’.

A new descendant

What the BBC reveals is that in the UK a close watch on a new descendant of the Delta variant of Covid that is causing a growing number of infections. While Delta is the dominant variant it now appears that 6% of infections that have been genetically sequenced are of a new type. This ‘Delta Plus’ (officially AY.4.2) contains mutations that might give the virus survival advantages.

Tests are under way to understand how much of a threat it may pose although, at this stage, it not yet considered a ‘variant of concern’ or a ‘variant under investigation’ (these are categories assigned to variants and the level of risk associated with them).

Delta was classified as a variant of concern in the UK in May 2021 surpassing the Alpha variant to become the dominant type of Covid in circulation. Delta Plus was identified in July. To date, it appears that it is not considerably more transmissible than Delta but it is still being investigated.

There have been thousands of mutations (changes in the internal composition of the virus) of the original Covid-19. Many are inconsequential but some variants emerging out of them are worrying and keeping scientists busy with testing. It is difficult spotting, tracking and managing the ones that could matter.

Detection steps

The first step is to pick up new mutants worth watching such as Delta Plus. Second, if there is a strong suggestion that the genetic changes might make the virus more contagious, it is classified as a ‘variant under investigation’ and more checks are done.

The third step occurs should it become clearer that investigated variant might be more transmissible and escape some of the built up immunity from past infections or vaccines, or potentially cause more serious disease. If so, it is categorised as a ‘variant of concern’ which is Delta’s categorisation.

The current stage of scientific investigation into Delta Plus is that it is unlikely to take off or escape vaccines despite being up to 10% more transmissible. Instead it is more likely to burn out and drop off the watch list. At this stage scientists are advising, while still investigating, ‘wait and see’.

Boris ignores scientists advice – again

When Boris Johnson’s government brought the UK out of lockdown on 19 July he was ending a protracted and debilitating process. This unfortunate process was due to incompetent leadership causing failure to follow and act quickly on scientific advice.

Had his government followed New Zealand’s successful ‘fast and hard’ zero tolerance approach the UK would have been much better positioned to exit lockdown.

Nevertheless, coming out of lockdown was understandable. But Johnson again chose to ignore the advice of scientists. They had recommended that several restrictions and other public health measures (including improved ventilation standards in hotels and schools for example) be put in place.

According to the scientists, preliminary modelling data suggested that the government’s approach would provide fertile ground for the emergence of vaccine-resistant variants. This would place everyone at risk, including those already vaccinated, within the UK and globally. While vaccines could be updated, this requires time and resources, leaving many exposed in the interim.

Virus variant school graduation

One description of Johnson’s decision to disregard this advice was that it was like opening a school for virus variants to learn how to get around vaccines. The experience of Delta Plus confirms this warning. The fact that Delta Plus may not graduate in his ‘education system’ does not diminish the risk.

If it does graduate to a ‘variant of concern’ then far away New Zealand will have reason to be worried. In this case Delta Plus should be renamed the ‘Boris variant’. Perhaps it should earn a graduate diploma!

Ian Powell was Executive Director of the Association of Salaried Medical Specialists, the professional union representing senior doctors and dentists in New Zealand, for over 30 years, until December 2019. He is now a health systems, labour market, and political commentator living in the small river estuary community of Otaihanga (the place by the tide). First published at Otaihanga Second Opinion