How NZ becomes the 10th State of Australia

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NZ’s disaster readiness red flagged

Kiwis are urged not to be complacent about being disaster ready as, despite what many people believe, there is no “army” of emergency responders, the national emergency management agency warns.

“There’s a widespread assumption that Civil Defence is a standing army that will come rushing out of the woodwork when the balloon goes up,” said John Price, director of the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA). “That’s not how it works.”

In fact New Zealand has fewer than 450 full time equivalent dedicated emergency management staff across central and local government. The immediate responders on the ground in the community are firefighters, police, ambulance, volunteers, utilities contractors.

In a major emergency, their focus for days and weeks will be rescuing those in danger and restoring critical lifelines, not on “hand-delivering supplies to your neighbourhood”.

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In its briefing to the incoming minister (BIM), which was released last week, the agency stressed that at current funding levels, even a moderate scale event could easily overwhelm New Zealand’s emergency management system.

That was borne out during Cyclone Gabrielle last year when many smaller communities were isolated and without contact for days.

The briefing went on to say central government agencies and civil defence groups would not have sufficient staff available to operate a response to a catastrophic event, such as a magnitude 8-plus Hikurangi subduction zone (under the sea floor) earthquake and tsunami, which modelling shows has a 25% chance of happening in the next 50 years.

In some cases, it said, there may not be the capacity to fully respond to and recover from a moderate or even small-scale event.

The Hikurangi tsunami scenario is just one of several outlined in the BIM, with an alpine fault magnitude 8 or more quake even more likely, at 75%, and an eruption at Ruapehu, Tongariro, Ngauruhoe or Whakaari White Island “almost certain”in the next 50 years.

The way our faultiness are so interconnected, there is a chance that the Alpine Fault earthquake could trigger the Hikurangi subduction zone Tsunami and could even be so large to shake volcanic eruptions.

The Alpine Fault would be the largest natural disaster to impact a modern country and the ramifications of that alone minus the tsunami and volcanoes are enough to cause a total collapse of our country.

In such a calamity, I think there is a real question mark over our capacity to continue as a seperate country and you might end up with a situation whereby NZ becomes the 10th state of Australia (after (Jervis Bay Territory, Territory of Christmas Island, Territory of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands and Norfolk Island) because the rebuild required from the Alpine Fault would easily overwhelm our ability to rebuild.

We are not ready for Climate Change, we are not ready for the Alpine Fault and we are not ready for the Hikurangi tsunami.

These things are coming and we are simply waiting.

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36 COMMENTS

  1. As I understand it the fundamental issue is that economic contractions has some rather fundamental issues. The biggest is probably that if your GDP starts to shrink and your population remains steady you gradually have less and less resources to go around. If it shrinks and your population increases you have even less resources to go around. And if your population is shrinking and your GDP is shrinking you’re invariably going to have a progressively older population sucking up resources from the younger still productive segments.

    If your GDP is stable and population is stable then thats great, but you’re basically stagnant. Anyone who defects will rapidly begin to dominate as they start trying to actually grow their economy and expand their available resources.

    Socially the bigger problem here is that this probably wouldn’t be workable in anything resembling a non authoritarian society. The issue isnt if New Zealand joins Australia the isdue is if you have a country where 3 demographic segments are declining or stagnant in population and 1 is growing then you’ll almost inevitably hit a point where the growing segment takes control from the non growing ones.

  2. I like the idea – not of volcanic Armageddon, but of an Australasian federation. We would have a better health system, and generally more functional institutions. But at this stage I suspect the Aussies would see us as a liability. And under the status quo they’ve got us where they want us – they can cream off our talent, and send the undesirables back to NZ.

  3. Although there are over 170,000 Maori in Australia, mainly economic refugees, I don’t think Maori would accept the incorporation of Aotearoa into the Commonwealth of Australia under any pretext, whether economic crisis, military threat, or natural disaster. And whatever the shortcomings of New Zealand’s official civil defence organisation, local communities will take care of themselves, as they always have and may have to do again.

    • They might if, and it’s a big if, the circumstances were right. Say IF the racist policies of ACT were to translate into actual political action, and the Waitangi Tribunal scrapped, then Maori might turn to the Aussies again with a big IF, the Aussies recognised the Treaty. If Maori then requested incorporation consequent to a broken Treaty, and there was an obvious state of insurrection in NZ, THEN Australia might act, militarily and economically, legally under their own constitution.

      • Maori are not impressed with Australia’s approach to its own indigenous people, remember that Australian regiments invaded the Waikato in 1862, and understand that their population and culture would be completely overwhelmed within the Commonwealth of Australia. There is a very real prospect, to my mind a certainty, that at some point in the coming decades we will overturn the colonialist construct of the Realm of New Zealand in favour of Te Whakaminenga o Aotearoa. So there are many reasons why we will not and should not accept our country being dissolved into the Commonwealth of Australia.

    • Under this National government, many are, police, nurses, teachers and public servants are already on their way. All because of the earthquake our government created.

  4. From personal experience of natural disaster, do not rely on civil defense or government they are dangerously useless and deeply dysfunctional.
    (To the point of giving the actual wrong advice re tsunami, then accidentally sending tsunami alerts to the whole country at midnight)

    Be personally prepared and look after your friends and neighbors and each other.
    Rebuilding? NZ can’t even fill potholes now, let’s hope we are well insured.
    Why would Australia want a cogoverned 3rd world liability like the peoples banana republic of Aotearoa?

  5. I’m suprised that people don’t know this after the chch quakes. Not only does civil defence not exist, EQC doesn’t exist either.

  6. How Kiwis are sending a $5 billion cheque to the Aussie banks every year dated 2019 prob more now.

    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2019/11/how-kiwis-are-sending-a-5-billion-cheque-to-the-aussie-banks-every-year.html

    If we had a single publically owned bank in NZ i.E. Kiwi bank which everyone used that 5billion would benefit all of us.
    It’d pay for brand new ferries for instance. But we lose it to Australia that shows contempt twds us by dumping
    501’s on our shores. A brief look at the harm Australia’s 501 policy has caused https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/01-12-2022/a-brief-look-at-the-harm-australias-501-policy-has-caused

  7. How Kiwis are sending a $5 billion cheque to the Aussie banks every year dated 2019 prob more now.

    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2019/11/how-kiwis-are-sending-a-5-billion-cheque-to-the-aussie-banks-every-year.html

    If we had a single publically owned bank in NZ i.E. Kiwi bank which everyone used that 5billion would benefit all of us.
    It’d pay for brand new ferries for instance. But we lose it to Australia that shows contempt twds us by dumping
    501’s on our shores. A brief look at the harm Australia’s 501 policy has caused https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/01-12-2022/a-brief-look-at-the-harm-australias-501-policy-has-caused

  8. One small correction: Australia already has seven states – Q’land, NSW, Vict, SA, WA, NT & Tas. In the Aussie constitution, there’s provision for NZ to apply to join their Commonwealth, and for them to admit us. Note the difference – we have to apply and they have to agree. Neither is automatic.

  9. While Civil Defence isn’t a standing army, surely the actual army itself would be called in. Nevertheless, seems we are on very shaky grounds.

    • The Army is amalgamating for example going from 4 to 3 fire fighting units less than 400 personal totally and each unit across NZDF is around 60% staffed with technical trades basically gutted/unserviceable. While the amalgamations may allow NZDF to fill positions so they can train and maintain safety standards deployments are going to suffer. Don’t count on 24/7 emergency responses its going to be very patchy thanks to attrition rates, lack of investment NZDF has a 100 billion dollar hole. Even if we funded NZDF at 2% GDP either a hundred billion dollar capital injection and got rid of the capital charges it’ll take at least 20 years to get NZDF back to full capabilities like just face it youbguys fucked up really really bad. Winters coming my G.

      • So we know the chances of natural disasters are increasing, yet the underinvestment is widespread.

        Seems we have another Pineapple Lump moment in the making.

        • “We know the chances of natural disasters are increasing”

          Warming will probably bring more cyclones, and also possibly make cyclones more destructive. But the impact of cyclones is small fry compared with big tectonic events like the Chch quakes. Check out the figures here: https://www.icnz.org.nz/industry/cost-of-natural-disasters/

          As Upsidedown points out below, major earthquakes are the biggest threat, and their frequency or impact has nothing to do with climate change. The impact of a big quake in Wellington would be like nothing we’ve ever seen before. If Mt. Taranaki woke up from its slumber things could be “interesting” too, considering there’s a city of 60,000 people on its lower slopes.

    • Fundamentally, the NZDF is primarily trained to murder innocent people whether in Afghanistan or as they presently are in Yemen, and this focus only continues to heighten. They could successfully reduce the amount of survivors who needed assistance, I suppose.

      • When NZDF is weak, equality is weak. The government has a monopoly on force because men have had a monopoly on force all through our history. So NZDF guarantees your rights.

  10. 4 years ago many Australians were wishing they could be the west island of New Zealand. Swings and roundabouts.

  11. Our governments have become so farcical even Ozzie ones would be an improvement.

    Rebuilding will go fast enough if ticket clipping council inspectors stay the fuck away.

  12. Not to worry. We have two Defence force Boeing 757’s. State of the ark ferries.
    A thousand vape stores. 3000 bottle stores. Plenty of number 8 wire and pavlova, and with annual net immigration of over 120,000 surely they were all let in to cover all the countries essential services needs many times over? /s

  13. The most significant disaster likely to occur is an Alpine Fault earthquake. The grid infrastructure connecting the dams will collapse resulting in SA style blackouts. This will be very destabilising socially and financially over an extended period of time. Even in this event I still can’t see a realistic scenario that involves NZ becoming the seventh state.

  14. The competition between states in Australia leaves no doubt about where NZ would be in the pecking order.

Comments are closed.