Ben Morgan’s Pacific Update

US Coast Guard activity continues to increase in the Pacific

US Coast Guard activity in the Pacific is increasing, the service’s vessels continuing to operate further from home. This month US Coast Guard ships, aircraft and personnel were busy practicing search and rescue (SAR) in Micronesia and hosted a leadership development exercise in Yap.  

The US Coast Guard works with local governments providing support for SAR, surveillance and law enforcement.  For instance, during the SAR exercise, responsibility for coordination within its territorial waters rests with the government of the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) but the US Coast Guard provides ships, aircraft and personnel for the activity. 

Exercises like this provide opportunities for Pacific nations to work together and practice their ‘inter-operability,’ or the ability for different militaries or law enforcement agencies to work together.  In this instance, Australia’s Maritime Security Advisor to the FSM was involved and met with representatives of the US Coast Guard demonstrating how these exercises maintain a range of different US relationships.

The US Coast Guard is a para-military service, its primary focus is law-enforcement and SAR but its vessels and personnel are armed and have a war-time function.  By using its coast guard, the US can extend its influence in the Pacific in a less threatening and militarised way than if it was to use naval vessels.  However, regardless of whether they are coast guard or naval vessels the same relationships are built in local communities and both help to extend the range of US surveillance and influence in the Pacific.

North Korean ballistic missile tests continue

On 18 December, Japanese officials reported that North Korea tested a ballistic missile that is estimated to have a range of 15,000km giving it the ability to strike the continental US.  The missile landed in the sea near Japan’s northern most island Hokkaido.

Japan’s National Security Council has met. South Korea and US officials are also engaged in how to manage this threat. Norh Korea’s missile force is rapidly increasing its capability and is testing missiles that can hit targets anywhere in the US, also making South Korea and Japan easy targets.

The most important questions relate to North Korea’s ability to target their missiles accurately and if they can deploy nuclear warheads.  It is likely that with Russian or Chinese aid it will not be long before both capabilities are refined and operational. 

Unfortunately, there is little that can be done at this stage. North Korea is already subject to extensive economic sanctions and military adventures would be opposed by its powerful allies.  The situation in North Korea is very difficult and its solution probably involves the US and its allies building détente with China.  A difficult proposition in the current environment, so we can expect to see North Korea’s activity continue to destabilise the Pacific for some time yet. 

Pacific partners attend NATO planning conference 

On 14 December, NATO hosted a meeting to plan next year’s Chiefs of Defence Force meeting. Senior officers representing NATO’s Indo-Pacific Partners – Australia, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand attended the meeting and provided security updates. Topics of discussion included China, cyber threats, climate change and maritime security.  

This meeting is not extraordinary, but is a useful reminder of the increasing integration between NATO and some nations in the Pacific.  At one end of the spectrum these meetings are about things as mundane as setting standards for equipment interoperability, but at the other they are about building relationships between key defence decision-makers.  NATO’s last strategic concept includes activity in the Pacific and this meeting is an opportunity to build the relationships that will enable it. 

Essentially, the alliance is acknowledging the inter-connectedness of the world and realises that as trading nations its members benefit from a secure Pacific. Chair of NATO’s Military Committee Admiral Robert Bauer stating that “These global challenges demand global solutions, and we stand with our Partners to preserve the rules-based international order, with a global system based on norms and values instead of brute violence and intimidation.”

The relationship between NATO and its Pacific partners is worth watching because it adds another variable to politics in the region. NATO and US strategic goals are not always the same and the increasing focus of European powers on the Pacific will produce interesting outcomes.

Melanesian update 

A regular update on the Pacific’s least reported trouble spot; Melanesia. 

Papua New Guinea Prime Minister confirms – No security talks with China

Speaking in Sydney recently, Papua New Guinea’s Prime Minister James Marape stated that the nation is not discussing security arrangements with China.  Prime Minister Marape stated that “We keep them (China) in the space of the economy, we went with traditional security partners for security.”  The statement corresponds with Papua New Guinea’s recent announcement that it has signed a security agreement with Australia.

This is another example of a small nation working to position itself between competing powers.  Papua New Guinea needs development funding and economic investment, something China can provide.  However, the nation must balance these benefits against maintaining its relationship with Australia.  A delicate and difficult position for any country to navigate, and a situation that will become increasingly common in the Pacific.  

Environmental activism against Papua New Guinean LNG extraction

A large cohort of environmental groups is contacting finance companies in the US, Europe, Asia and Australia encouraging them not to lend money to the Papua LNG Project. The project produces about 5.4 million tonnes of LNG annually and provides much needed revenue for the country. 

This situation provides an interesting diplomatic case-study.  Papua New Guinea is poor and desperately needs economic development to build its economy.  If it cannot borrow money from the US, Europe, Asia or Australia it may take loans from China. A nation that’s banking sector is less likely to accept environmental advocacy and is increasing its investment in hydrocarbons.  

Stopping US, Europe, Asia or Australian banks from funding the Papua LNG Project appears to be an environmentally sustainable action, but its unintended consequence may be that China fund the project.  In this situation, China increases its influence in Papua New Guinea and there is no impact on carbon emissions.  This is a great example of why larger Pacific nations need to be thinking more laterally and looking for new solutions.  Are there other less environmentally damaging economic opportunities that could be supported that will provide Papua New Guinea with the revenue it needs? The best way to influence countries in this situation is to support them economically in an environmentally sustainable manner, and how this is achieved is a key question for Pacific strategists. 

West Papua an Indonesian election issue

Recent political campaigning for the Indonesian presidential elections includes promises to increase security in West Papua.  The western half of Papua Island is a province of Indonesia, however there is a significant indigenous independence movement fighting against Indonesian rule.

The fact that this conflict is being discussed in the Presidential elections means that security in the province is an issue. West Papua shares a long and rugged border with Papua New Guinea and the war creates potential for this border to become much less stable. Papua New Guinea already struggles to maintain law and order and any increased border tension will strain its resources. 

Fiji receives security aid from Japan

Fiji recently received $USD 2.8 million security aid from Japan. The grant will be used to buy equipment and to improve facilities. Japan’s interest and this grant demonstrate the key role that Fiji is starting to play in the region. It appears to be taking over the role of bridging the gap between major powers and smaller Pacific nations that New Zealand once fulfilled.  

This is an interesting trend, as New Zealand has withdrawn from Pacific security debates Fiji has become more active and its influence appears to be increasing.  

Timor Leste financial problems still looming

Xanana Gusmao was elected Prime Minister in May 2023, the country facing a financial meltdown. Essentially, Timor Leste’s only foreign exchange comes from the ‘Petroleum Fund,’ a fund established to manage revenue received from the extraction of petrochemical resources.  Since the fund’s establishment Timor Leste’s government has consistently spent more than is sustainable betting on projected income from the Sunrise LNG field.  

A project to develop the Sunrise LNG field did not eventuate, meaning that upon his election Xanana Gusmao needed to immediately introduce a range of measures to limit government spending and try to avert a financial crisis. By spending less the Petroleum Fund’s revenue that was predicted to stop in the mid-2030s is now projected to last until the mid-2040s.  The success of these measures is still uncertain and Timor Leste’s precarious finances add another difficult issue to Melanesia’s geo-political environment.  

Timor Leste is in a similar situation to Papua New Guinea, desperately needing revenue to build its economy.  The easiest way to create revenue is exploitation of petrochemical resources an option that is environmentally unsustainable.  Pressure is mounting in many countries not to fund petrochemical projects but China is still funding them, meaning that if they want influence the US and Australia need to offer different, economically viable solutions to countries in this situation. 

Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer and TDBs military blogger