The last debate , Election Eve predictions and how Labour lost 2023 Election

Haha. Now explain why you fucking sold us out on the wealth tax clown!

Election eve and all the country is looking at Chippy’s taught winces and those dreadful haunted, spooked eyes from last night’s final leaders’ debate. The same anxious, doomed, transfixed focus of impending mortality he has had for a few weeks (since Kiri’s epic self-destruction) had waned in the last couple of days as polls danced around giving him false hope from the Labour spin doctors. He seemed for a day or two to be optimistically reconciled to opposition facing a National-Act-NZF coalition clusterfuck that he wistfully hoped out loud would be a coalition KKKLuxonfuck. Then he could be a loser, but be right and a better person than the other guy. An empty virtue signal. His message couldn’t be clearer: you will be cursed with National if you don’t pity vote Labour. How appealing. Chippy was smug about that outcome evidently. Smug like only a Wellingtonian can be – the smugness of knowing your useless skinny white arse devoid of talent or ability or judgment can still pull six figures in Wellington no matter how badly you perform. But the flaming fields of Armageddo had returned to his petrified eyes again last night.

Was the angry ginger dweeb who looks like a maths teacher who was getting personal at every turn, going negative, ranting and speaking across the moderator look like a good Prime Minister? Or did the cool corporate ballhead who looks like a former CEO of Air NZ who was on about policy, went positive and spoke well look like a good Prime Minister?

Chippy has had and has taken some woeful advice – most of it from Robertson I guess – since he became PM.  His approach last night will be one of the last mistakes he gets to make as PM. Those who think Chippy should have gone hard and did so successfully (the Nat’s “tax scam” was referred to as a “tax swindle” etc.) are those that will see low blows (“bed leg” etc) as counting – they don’t, the public mark those as points against Hipkins because they see it under Queensberry Rules not as a street fight. The messaging was: Bottom-feeders bed legs vote Labour, Luxon is untrustworthy and has no integrity vote Labour. No GST off blah blah blah just frontal groin-aimed attack, phony hypocritical tantrums over his government’s own failings and an overpowering stench of existential angst. Spitting and spewing, hating and writhing like a demonic entity being pulled out of the body politic. The debate isn’t about volume either – Marama Davison’s pitchy, hyperventilating, mad lady rants, whilst pointing and jabbing a pen around detract from whatever she says and it didn’t work for her – and it hasn’t worked for him. Labour went negative the nanosecond they launched their campaign: Robbo stepped forward at the presser and instantly, reflexively went after Luxon on his religion, on every conceivable personal attribute. They’ve started negative and they’re going to finish negative. Predictable Labour. We really began to tune out when Robbo rat-fucked Chip on the wealth tax when the poor prat was in the Baltic on a humiliating NATO arse-licking exercise in between humiliating sausage roll presentations. His own team don’t back his calls – why should we? We have tuned out and are waiting for tomorrow to turn it off.

He has made terrible captain’s calls. One poor decision after another. The wealth tax rule out, letting Kiri back off leave early, not promoting anyone and leaving the cabinet two down, ruling out NZ First, telling reporters that if Winston rang he would pick up the phone, the unpromising of recognising the Palestinian ambassador just 24 hours after promising to recognise them…the list is quite long of unsound and counter-productive edicts from someone in office for such a short period.

Angry, negative, personal, desperate. Chip looked like the maths teacher appointed as interim Head of Department who knows he won’t get the HoD position after this interview.  He deserves to never be Prime Minister again and Labour deserve to be thrown out. We may never see another single party majority government in our lifetime and it amazes all of us – left, right, and centre – that they never contemplated ever doing anything transformational with it. And the reason for this epically fumbled sitter is the following: ‘But, but, but Neil and Clint said we have to target Karens.’ History cannot be harsh enough. He is a non-entity student politician in a Labour pantheon of student politicians. He was elevated to the Prime Ministership after Jacinda gapped it for motherhood and Netflix when Grant Robertson ruled himself out of drinking the poisoned chalice. Chippy was an accidental, soon to be incidental, PM randomly designated by Robbo to take the hit – Judith Collins style – for the loss so Robbo could emerge untarnished as Leader after the defeat. And just to make sure that plan works out Robbo’s kept that chalice topped up with toxic decisions and policies enough to prevent Labour winning. Chip is just Johnny on the spot, the perky dude that everyone else trusts to wear the suicide vest and do his best to take one for the team – that team being Robbo. The masterstroke of this was convincing Chip to rule out Winston – the only possible path to a Labour government. Chip had been convinced to snooker himself. If any deal is to be done with Winnie someone else will have to do it, won’t they.

Have you voted yet? It’s purely psychological – I made up my mind months ago (TPMx2 in Waiariki makes more sense than any other options this time round) but will probably leave it to the last day just to keep the tension, keep the illusion of empowerment.

Labour do not deserve to win. That is the bottom line. They are hopeless, useless and bereft. National have chartered a middle course with cream for their property developer doners, and stingy on the poor, as is traditional.  The mood is change, people have warmed to Luxon.

My sense is this could be a 60-60 hung parliament on the night and National could therefore potentially prevail based on winning the Port Waikato by-election. There is a slight probability c.20% that the Nats and Act could pull off a slim majority by themselves, however that means there is a c.80% probability they cannot – and in that scenario NZ First will decide the next government. I think the electorate as whole understand this and have also come to accept the result will be Winston negotiating with National and with Labour.

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National first accepted this when Luxon ruled in working with NZ First. It seemed obvious that Farrar’s internal polling had told them NZF was clear over the 5% threshold and was making ground too fast to stop. Time to wake up and smell that heady mix of Chivas Regal, Old Spice and Rothmans that heralds the King-maker. The Nats would have liked to have ruled him out, but feared he would get up anyway and they wanted the way clear to put a deal together without reneging and losing credibility. This was a wise approach.

No such wisdom from Labour. Their whole campaign, their strategy, their tactics have been one self-inflicted disability after another. Grant Robertson has been doing to Chris Hipkins exactly what he did to David Cunliffe – only Chippy is dopey enough to think he’s on his side. Robertson is rodent-frigging him and the party, just like in 2014, all for his own career. Notice how Robbo is the only one who seems genuinely nonplussed with no signs of stress like everyone else? That’s because it suits him if Labour loses, suits his career and his chances of a run as leader at the next election. In 2014 he – and Hipkins I bet – foisted Cunliffe with a policy of raising the superannuation age to 67. Pure poison. Now Chip’s condemning the Nats for raising it to 67 in twenty years’ time – what a hypercritical arsehole.  The same guy that dropped the word Aotearoa and co-governance so quickly when he became PM is now sanctimoniously berating National for Maori-bashing race division – it is absurd.

So my forecast:

Vote +Electorates = Total MPs

National 38% +41* = 48*

Labour 24.9% +25 = 31

Greens 13.5% +1 = 17

Act 8.5% +2 = 11

NZ First 8% +nil = 10

Te Pati Maori 3.5% +3 = 4

TOP 1.5% +nil = nil

New Conservatives 1.1% +nil = nil

Democracy NZ 0.3% +nil = nil

Freedoms NZ 0.3% =nil =nil

ACLP/NZLoyal/NewZeal/NZOFP all <0.3% each +nil =nil

 Total = 121 MPs*

*Nats to win Port Waikato by-election

Marginals: Party / majority

Auckland Central: Green HOLD c.2000

East Coast: National TAKE c.6000

Hamilton East: National TAKE c.5000

Ikaroa-Rawhiti: TPM TAKE c.1000

Ilam: National TAKE c.3500

Napier: National TAKE c.5000

Ohariu: National TAKE c.2000

Rongotai: Labour HOLD c.500

Tamaki: Act TAKE c.1000

Tamaki Makaurau: Labour HOLD c.2000

Te Tai Hauauru: TPM TAKE c.1500

Te Tai Tonga: Labour HOLD c.1000

Waiariki: TPM HOLD c.3500

Wellington Central: National TAKE c.500

Whangarei: National TAKE c.5000

Turnout: 78%

Nat+Act = 59 [need +2]

Lab+Grn+TPM = 52 [need +9]

Nats and Labour will only get 6 off their list so a lot of senior MPs on both sides will miss out.

The only 2 party scenario that can gain a majority is Nats+Labour or Nats+Grn. Those are not available, therefore every other combination of government involves 3 or more parties.

Fun times people. Champagne wishes and caviar dreams.


  1. Interesting on Robbo’s Macheivillean long game. Labours campaign has been a microcosm of the country generally – so much opportunity, such poor outcomes – because politicians are f&*cking it up at every step. I’ll be voting ACT.

    • Then you’ll be an idiot voting for a soulless crook. You do realise that ACT is roger douglas, right? And roger did this. All of this. 480 people living in cars. 200,000 people living in waged poverty, 14 multi-billionaires and 3118 multi-millionaires with wealth in excess of $50 million nett each and four foreign owned banks stealing $180.00 nett a second 24/7/365 from the grossly over the inflated property scams the themselves propagated.
      Yeah! Vote ACT Jase, you fucking genius.

    • Another “You do realise” for you Jason. Act’s economic ideology is that same as Liz Truss who lasted 6 weeks in the PMs job in the UK because she crashed the economy and the Bank of England has to step in to rescue the country.

      In the long run we might be better off to give David Seymour the finance minister’s job, let him screw up and then we can start fresh again. It’ll all be over in 6 weeks!

  2. Hahaha brilliant – but isn’t Robertson out if Labour gets sub 25? Unless of course the inner West Auckland seats turn blue.

    • Luxon may argue that he was not flat and wooden and robotic in the leaders debate, but here is a transcript of a secret conversation that appears to show otherwise:
      SEYMOUR: Get up. Come on. Holy shit!
      L U X O N: I need a vacation.
      SEYMOUR: Are the country’s prospects finished if we get elected?
      L U X O N: Terminated.
      SEYMOUR: Will they melt in there?
      L U X O N: Yes. Throw them in. And the chip.
      SEYMOUR: Is it over?
      L U X O N: No. There’s one more chip.
      And it must be destroyed also.
      Here. I cannot self terminate.
      You must lower me into the steel.
      SEYMOUR: No! I need you to bring back submachine guns!
      L U X O N: I’m sorry Davey. I’m sorry.
      SEYMOUR: No. Stay with us. The landlords want you!
      L U X O N: I have to go away Davey.
      SEYMOUR: No. Wait. Winston says he’s going to help!
      L U X O N: Sorry. It has to end here.
      SEYMOUR: Chinese investors order you not to go. They order you!
      L U X O N: I know now why you cry.
      But it’s something I can never do.
      Astalavista, Davey!

  3. “Time to wake up and smell that heady mix of Chivas Regal, Old Spice and Rothmans that heralds the King-maker.” LOL brilliant! what a godawful image that description conjures up! Quote of the entire campaign.

  4. Heh, Tim is a modern day “Gonzo journalist” i.e. placing himself in the centre of the story complete with excoriating language for his nemesis.

    There are some nice points on how Hipkins managed to stuff up the campaign that many others have noticed too.

  5. You can’t beat the smiling assassin 2.0 with head prefect niceties. Stick the greased up pig where it hurts.

  6. Jesus!
    “Election eve and all the country is looking at Chippy’s taught winces and those dreadful haunted, spooked eyes from last night’s final leaders’ debate. The same anxious, doomed, transfixed focus of impending mortality he has had for a few weeks”
    Are you sure that’s not just the look of someone in possession of all the facts and the facts, in case you hadn’t noticed, are that we’re all fucked. We needn’t be, but we are.
    Forty years ago roger fucked us all with the kissing and given how fundamentally violently ugly the little fellow is then perhaps that’s a good thing.
    Let’s strip away at the guff and gibberish and look at the simple facts.
    Three years with a Hipkins/Swarbrick politic or three more years added to the already 39 years of rogers far right neo-liberal tyranny with neo-Greedy neo-Baldylocks and the flea infested little neo-ACT rogerclone circus bear snivelling at his flat neo-feet?

  7. Funny, that’s not what I got watching the debate.The audience loved it when Chippy got his dander up .Luxon was mouth licking and nervous when his jibes didn’t hit the mark .The audience wasn’t buying the notion of Chippy needing to “settle down”
    Luxon came up empty

    • Notice how the audiences are handpicked and full of lefties? If you predicted the election based on how much noise supporters made at each debate the left would win in a landslide. Maybe not handpicked – but definitely left leaning, a right wing politician is never going to be accepted there.

  8. Amongst what amounts to a party political, cherry picking, and far too obviously self serving to have any credibility (No surprises the usual mob of “intellectuals” are baying at the moon in reaction), it would take too long to do a point by point dismantling of the type of “logic” used, so “after Jacinda gapped it for motherhood and Netflix” will suffice to expose the general irrelevance to reality of the entire rant.. Do they get netflix at Harvard University? Maybe she has a tv wheeled in to the many meetings she has as a result of her many commitments..
    So she spent a few months getting herself organised and, horror of horrors!! she wasted it on her family!! How very dare she!!!
    I do wonder sometimes just how lacking in either self awareness, intelligence, a moral compass, or a combination of all three one has to be before this dross passes for “informed and mature” comment, but I think it would be a useful study to undertake, as it is a blight on proper decision making for as long as this country became a british conquest.

  9. Interesting Tim, fairly much the way I see it.
    Except I believe you underestimate the amount of swing against Labour in the Provinces. In addition to your seat shift estimation, Labour will loose, as opposed to National will win, Wanganui, New Plymouth, Tukituki, probably Napier and maybe Wairarapa. Such that National may not get any list seats at all. Thus if Willis does NOT WIN Ohariu she could be out.

  10. Labour going down the tubes might have some of them reflect on not doing things they should’ve done but didn’t for fear of going down the tubes.

  11. Agree they seemed to have a reluctance to do anything,which I believe is because they didn’t know what to do.

    • Whew, luckily your opinion is worth jack shit. All those in health are thankful for the thousands Labour has increased their salaries by. It will come in handy when your lobotomy surgery is scheduled. so much for reluctance to do anything. What a stupid statement.

  12. I don’t know what Debate you watched or are referring to but Chippy owned Luxon last night, Baldylocks was hopeless, weak & pathetic, Mr Corporate CEO with his tedious Soundbites had no substance, only CEO gobbledygook, Lex Luxon was as useless as a one legged man at a ass kicking contest? And here’s a thought for those NZers who are undecided voters? Luxon earned $4.2 million a year at Air NZ & when he left this Company in 2019, Air NZ was $3.3 billion in Debt which required a nearly $1 billion dollar bailout by the NZ Govt & you, the NZ Taxpayers or else it would have gone bankrupt thanks to Luxon’s poor economic management of Air NZ & financial incompetence, he was despised by Air NZ staff due to his sabotage of workers rights & this arsehole wants to be the NZ Prime Minister & run NZ Inc like he ran Air NZ, straight into the ground, no thank you, Luxon’s a Fraud & Scam Artist & his Party is a Party of Rich elite scumbags!

  13. Nicely done Tim! You had me rolling in the aisles with your “Smug like only a Wellingtonian can be” comment, because that is so 100% on the nail.

    There’s another reason why Robbo is so calm: He can resign after this fiasco and walk away with a fat ministerial pension plus all the other perks and maybe a likely sweet little sinecure in academia somewhere. Or will he spend another three years on the opposition benches? Either way it’s an easy life for him.

    • So he will do a Key and run away with his tail between his legs. Big difference, Robbo wasn’t corrupt.

  14. the best question of the night was “Will you resign as leader of your party if you lose the election?”

    If Hipkins remains leader of the opposition, the infighting within Labour will never cease. And Labour will not be able to rebuild. No matter how bad the NactNZF three headed troglodyte behaves.

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