Subnational Ethnic Population Projections: 2018(base)–2043 Update – Statistics New Zealand


Subnational ethnic population projections show what the ethnic make-up of each area of New Zealand is likely to be in future.

Key facts

Subnational ethnic population projections indicate the future population living in New Zealand’s 16 regional council areas (regions), 67 territorial authority areas (TAs), and 21 Auckland local board areas (LBAs), for four broad and overlapping ethnic groups: ‘European or Other (including New Zealander)’, Māori, Pacific, and Asian.

The medium growth projections indicate that between 2018 and 2043:

  • The Māori, Asian, and Pacific ethnic populations will grow in all regions and TAs.
  • The ‘European or Other’ ethnic population will grow in 14 regions and decline in two, and grow in 57 TAs and decline in 10.
  • New Zealand will become more ethnically diverse in 2043 than in 2018 due to slower growth of the ‘European or Other’ population compared with other ethnic groups.

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