It’s not too early to begin the blame game. All indications are the election result is set in stone with Labour going, in just three years, from the first party able to govern alone under MMP to a crushing defeat on 14 October which halves their number of MPs.
People who have been paying attention won’t regret the loss. Labour hasn’t had the desire or the ability to bring meaningful change in all but a couple of cases. The task has been beyond it.
Even where Labour has brought significant change, such as with Fair Pay Agreements, it took six years and the policy has been so poorly communicated it will be dashed away in the blink of an eye by National/Act with barely a public murmur.
Labour knows it’s up for a hiding so it is now trying to save its base electorates. It’s begun announcing policies it hopes will be popular with its base such as taking GST off fresh fruit and vegetables. It did much the same before the 2011 election, knowing it wouldn’t be able to implement the policy. Next year it will also repeat what it did after the 2011 election and recant on the policy saying “there are better ways to help those on low incomes than changes to GST”. But, as in 2011, those “better ways” will never materialise.
I’m sure someone somewhere has produced a list of Labour’s announced intentions to introduce policies which they have failed to follow through with. It will be long and embarrassing.
Two examples from the last week highlight Labour’s astonishing political inertia.
Firstly Chris Hipkins had to apologise for claiming during the first leaders’ debate that Labour had removed fizzy drinks from primary schools when it emerged the government had thought about it but never followed through.
Secondly we all remember the weeping and gnashing of teeth two years ago over the appalling dawn raids of the 1970s – which included a formal government apology. But following the apology it was found that immigration officials continued with the practice and only this week Immigration Minister Andrew Little has announced the intention to legislate to restrict the practice. But not till after the election – goodbye to that idea.
When you can’t protect children from the most basic of corporate predation and you don’t follow though on protecting families from what amounts to practices of state terror then you have forfeited any right to public respect.
At the moment hope for progressive change rest solely with Te Pāti Māori and the Greens.
I hate it when you make sense, as usual, John. When you express in clear simple terms the problems facing us.
It is depressing to think that we might need a right wing government to further highlight the inequalities that continue to build in our society.
The problem is can a decimated (in this case halved) Labour caucus and a demoralized Labour party rebuild themselves
Corporate-controlled New Labour will have to go the way of the Whigs and disappear. Old Labourism can only return as a new Third Party.
Totally agree Kristoff.
I hate it when you make sense, as usual, John. When you express in clear simple terms the problems facing us.
It is depressing to think that we might need a right wing government to further highlight the inequalities that continue to build in our society.
The problem is can a decimated (in this case halved) Labour caucus and a demoralized Labour party rebuild themselves
Maybe Labour should stop recruiting political careerists like student union leaders then becoming ministerial staffers into safe seats without any intervening time outside of the political system?
But you just know they’ve gone so far down the identity-race-gender route that Labour as a entity is stuffed. It’s that same righteous attitude of the “we they know best” that will prevent the party rebuilding it’s way out of the black hole it’s fallen into. And even scarier is that they are a mild version of the real thing, the Green Party!
For former Labour supporters, I think we are all demoralised but for different reasons. Do I think they will learn? Probably not, they are way too arrogant. And worse, they will likely be left with dead wood like Twyford and Wood in the caucus which will not help. Hard to see an upside here!
Dead “Wood” haha.
Sad but true.
Any organisation is only as good as the individuals in it & Labour totally failed to select people with the correct public service attitude with a few exceptions. While I have voted Green in the past they suffer from the same problem so TMP is the last party standing which does not say a lot about the quality of democracy available in NZ. Thankfully I know that a better world is coming though.
The Labour lineup is embarrassing.
Governing a country is serious there are so many critical issues at stake,I get the strong impression the current Labour lineup treat it as a game.
Agree with you John.
Labours new policy look like the boyfriend whose treated you badly and you are telling him you are leaving saying “I’ll do the cooking honey, I ll pay the rent”
Ankler. No. They’ve suddenly realised they need the punters’ votes to get themselves re-elected, and treating us like stupid, because they’re stupid. “ Hey ! Here’s a gst-free carrot.” It is profoundly irritating. The transparent sole source of truth scarpering was the opportunity for a reset, but I doubt they were particularly motivated or interested. They’ll be fine, they’ll stay buffered; man-hating Marama will munch her chocolate wailing colonialism like a Shakespearean witch, and I may even get to glimpse the invisible Wellington Central Labour chappie of whose existence I was unaware until reports trickled out concerning who or what he won’t debate or talk about when there’s so much which needs to be discussed, and not just by the media sycophants.
… and you can expect to be smacked hard if you let them back in.
/agree @John
Nothing will change unless certain people in the Labour Party are delivered a strong message.
As things stand, Greens will be getting my party vote, and Ibranim Omer my electorate vote.
What has changed my support for the party vote?
– allowing senior public servants to advise and enforce based on what is easiest for them rather than what is best for the public in a supposed “egalitarian” society (it no longer is)
– failure to make any sort of meaningful progress at OT AND neutering the role of the Children’s Commissioner
– Sensible Immigration policies that don’t keep changing based on which way the wind is blowing and which have, and continue to encourage worker exploitation
– pathetic progress (if any) with improvements to health and education
– continuing to allow the NZ public to be exploited and ripped off by supermarkets, oil companies, power companies, ISPs and telco providers
-etc, etc, etc
Having said that, Labour/Greens/TPM are going to be the least worst option but it may take a shock (delivered by the revenge voter and the relatively well-to-do) to obtain the necessary “learnings, in this space, going forward”
Oh well, fait accompli it is then. Certaily looks like much of the Party vote captured in 2020 is gone. Well, that was always on the cards wasn’t it. Swing voters are so fickle. And have short memories. And it wouldn’t be the first time a once majority government has squandered its mandate. Brian Easton’s fine book tells it all. But this current chapter has yet to be written. What would be the guts of it? The backdrop being a surprise victory in 2017 virtue of an 11th hour move, followed by a 2020 landslide during a global pandemic. Modest gains but too little too late? Too few capable ministers? Too much to do after the years of neglect and underinvestment by the previous government? A strong Maori caucus and a sympathetic ear to past injustices and current realities, resulting in the public accusation of separatism? The disruption of global pandemic and pushback against a perceived heavy handed approach? The weight of big money against them? A mobilized right?
But it is mmp. So after the big day we can look forward to the post election drama.
The real tragedy is that National know they can enact pretty much any bad laws they like and there is almost no chance of a future goverment repealing them. I can only think of the Clark governments rollback of ACC privatisation, the list of untouched terrible legislation is endless. One likely result will be full privatisation of those power companies that have already been part privaatised with the resultant power price increases etc etc so it does matter.
Yep, it is TPM or Green if you regard yourself as progressive voter.
A Nashnull Govt. if it happens, will be fun for a certain coterie of sadistic torys on October 14, but reality will impact starting on Sunday 15th for the bottom 50% of working class people.
The Natzos will not institute cheaper petrol or food, they will union bust and take measures that will adversly affect children, young women and adult women–and a head on attack on Māoridom.
Yes and it will all be run by 7 homes, 50m black Mercedes travelling Luxon. A middle of the road, down to earth kiwi(sarc)
To right John Labour are no better than National they’re both the same with continuing the status quo.
I’m sorry @ JM. But when I got to here I had a stirring in my gall pot. “Labour hasn’t had the desire or the ability to bring meaningful change in all but a couple of cases. The task has been beyond it.”
There’s a reason for that as I’ve exhaustively tried to point out in TDB’s humble yet potent comments section. ( As opposed to me personally. I’m all potency and no humility, just ask anyone? )
To be clear. ‘Labour’ isn’t Labour and hasn’t been so since the resignation of David Lange in protest at Natzo’s tiny hit-thing Roger douglas and his pirated thus now far Right caucus’s disemboweling of Labour in 1984. Surely watching douglas go on to create the fascist and parasitic ACT in harmony with the terminally psychotic Natzo Mafia would be self explanatory?
David Lange was the last frontiersman. He shared his DNA with Norman Kirk, Green Rod Donald and dear ol’ Jim Anderton and in so doing he set himself up as an exploitable target for soulless douglas and his greedy cronies to Trojan Horse their way into Labour, the last Party standing between the microscopic disease that was the wannabe neo-liberalism’s 14 multi-billionaires, 3118 multi-millionaires each with $50 mil nett and their minions doing the dirty work, the four now foreign owned banks making $180.00 a second in nett profits 24/7/365. And that, dear John Minto, is where we are today. We’re fucked and they fucked us and all without the kissing. If the natzo’s and their hangers on get in and lets face it, they’re now all the same thing, that’s clear evidence that AO/NZ is an irreparably unthinking, lazy, greedy, gimme-gimme country that’s abandoned all hope and with less Class than the cloned front lawns of the plasti-mansions in Westmoreland, Ch Ch.
But even in these dire times there’s always hope. I see Chloe Swarbrick as being a distant star that’s staring to shine ever brighter. I met her once with her lovely young friend type people in their cafe/gallery a few years ago and she’s a brilliant delight because she came across as whip smart, honest and kind. A rare Wee Beastie indeed.
What a wondrous thought… that if every voter who wasn’t a rich, greedy, neo-liberal, arse hole wanker voted for Chloe. That, would tip the world upside down and put AO/NZ on top.
Labour don’t have policies only promises they don’t keep.
“I will not raise gst”…John Key, a promise he did not keep
I wouldn’t go there ..
100,000 homes
1,000,000 trees
A 2nd fuel pipeline from Whangarei
You went there…
“a brighter future”
“closing the wage gap with Australia”
“we will sell off state housing”
And announcements, Labour just love announcements. It makes them appear like they’re doing something .
Yes the bogus announcements of this Labour Government are now legend.
Speaking of bogus…”I will not raise GST”…John Key
9 times National “announced” they had a new leader.
The alt-right Labour Party likes low low-hanging fruit policy. Meaningless drivel.
They’re heading into third party territory now. Most likely never to recover.
This proves that Populism is temporary in global politics and an unnecessary (miss)adventure.
NZ is worse off for it.
Bring on a Double Banana Republic!
With the cream of whipped NZs on top.
Graffiti for the day:
Was Brit but it will do –
The Tory party is the cream of society –
thick and rich and full of clots.
Luxons wealth increased dramatically thanks to Jacinda refusing to introduce a CGT. Now he is about to introduce tax breaks so his wealth increases even more. He fails to see how a beneficiary recieves a miniscule amount compared to the free money Jacinda gave him? Jacinda Arden’s legacy is a disaster for the poorest and most in need members of society. She basically set up the red carpet for NACT to crush the poor. It’s time to set up a lottery as to whether Jacinda should be allowed back into NZ. She obviously would think that is fair. Tony Blairs spawn is the real smiling assassin… SHAME!!!
Love nationals talking points “Tax cuts for the low and middle income” Nothing about tax cuts for the rich strangely enough.
Yes and love how National talk about “targeting” when attacking Labours policies yet open slather for the wealthy to reap the most rewards on tax cuts.
Never Again The rot preceded Ardern. Clark was a similar authoritarian who some think emasculated the parliamentary Labour Party. There are still leaders who proclaim something will never happen on their watch like fascist dictators flying solo – and the hidden agendas aka aspirations.
It’s not an easy luxury to enjoy voting for what you truly believe in when the necessity to avoid falling into the hands of the 3 lords of hell necessitates that you continue to place mud bricks into the only crumbling levy that has any hope of even impeding them.
Good heading John. I like this –
People who have been paying attention won’t regret the loss. Labour hasn’t had the desire or the ability to bring meaningful change in all but a couple of cases. The task has been beyond it.
You missed out a word of description – that is ‘principles’. They had a modicum of them once pushing Labour along. Now that they look set to lose for the reasons you have clearly stated, why not blunder back into the principles field, at the last moment and surprise the enemy (if the Right are the enemy) – after all WHAT HAVE THEY GOT TO LOSE by seeming to be ‘muppets’ now. At the present Labour is more like an enema, not where they ought to be!
We could find a renewed enthusiasm for good-wishing muppets, hobbits or wombles, one or all. All connected with positivity and Oh God help us to have positivity, drive and good works. Sounds prosy and preachy, but if its different from what we have said or done till now, it’s probably right. Because we need a new tack, we need to set sail on a new course, we need to turn the ship around etc etc (on a sea-going theme but you get the picture).
So Labour don’t give us the bloody lies of the past about housing, actually bloodless lies! If talking housing tell us the difficulties of doing what is needed but tell us how you can encourage training schemes for building tiny houses, and offer some money to Councils to set aside some suitable and – not on a flood plain or side of a moveable hill – to build them.
And also go through your portfolios you Mini-ministers and see a way to manage something better that can be done and go around obstacles that will remain in the short term. Don’t show us your smiles, and lie in your teeth, which are false!
Do the hard bit that you need to do, change your approach, fight the good fight as we need you though you need R&M badly, you are a vehicle from the past that was good and we can work on you and help you to be the last flying-machine in the world even. We’ve got the will and technology. (Think Sir Peter Jackson and his flying machines. We can do this but it needs will and verve, repeat this 100 times.) Grab victory back from the jaws of the monster, and leave it snarling in defeat. Make no mistake fellow citizens, we are looking at a monster which will reveal itself as evil as the scales fall from our eyes.
At least Labour and National have reached an accord for first home buyers and long term renters=FOTA!-‘Fuck Off To Australia’.
Yep. Paper tigers, every one of them…
Not excuses as such but two massive factors will be part of a Labour loss. Paula Bennett soliciting herself for the wealthiest New Zealanders donations and New Zealand’s media which has ha strong right wing leaning.
Tiger food the lot of them.
And if TPM is your forlorn hope, be ready for disappointment.
A Winston-led collation has no merits – maybe we’ll see a few populist revolts at last – the thing the clownvoy pretended to be.
Thanks for the autopsy, John.
Well people considering all the moaning and groaning since the Labour government was elected in 2017 are you even surprised we are where we are. Do you want this Labour government to go down in a blaze of glory with failed left wing policies. Can you honestly see this country accepting a true left wing agenda. “ pretty little communist comes to mind “. The truth of the matter is , is that NZ is no longer the friendly isles. People would rather see people actually lose their jobs so that they can get a tax cut. People are happy to see the unemployed beaten with a stick if they don’t or can’t look for a job . That woman from Taupo sits on her high horse looking down her nose at the bottom feeders in their pajamas. They want to send all the brown kids away to boot camp.They will be bringing back work houses next, that’s how archaic their un costed policies are. They can actually get away with a one line modeling of their tax plan because the right wing MSM are only allowed to push them so far. This is what a left wing agenda is up against . Jacinda saved us from covid , she saved the tight arse businesses who happily accepted the handouts and who are now complaining about overspending etc.etc. while donating big to the right wing bloc. Look what happened to her with the blessing of the right wing who openly supported the misogyny and the hatred spouted against her and her family. Let’s ask these businesses who are now doing ok thank you very much to pay back the money. That would pay off a lot of debt. Labour unfortunately are probably going to lose this election and history will show that this will be the worst political catastrophic event ever to hit NZ . At the end of the day with Luxon Seymour and Peters in the mix , it will not only be the coalition of chaos it will be the coalition of “egos “ and I can see that we will be fast heading for another election in 6 months time .
Your conclusion is right, as usual.
Now if we weren’t silly-arses , who are humanly worried about costs rising, this election would be about the last chance to fight here on our isles the early death of our children and grandchildren, let alone, much more importantly, me at 57.
That I put this subjectively is the aptest evidence of our soon end.
We, at our best, were intermediate thinkers, our evolutionary advantage, but never long-term. We have to be cornered to do right, and that’s not how nature conducts itself.
This political campaign is ludicrous, but all the polies are too schooled to say it. Alice in Wonderland basis.
Drink from the small bottle sumsuch and be well I hope.
Strict reality about reality. Like many you haven’t watched a climate change documentary. Never had regard for you.
Your serious truth about matters is a solid line. 15 years doing that on blogs has delivered me to solid reason. You should have seen me at the start.
The only prob is this is the end of times. And a people’s govt is required.
Yes and it will all be run by 7 homes, 50m black Mercedes travelling Luxon. A middle of the road, down to earth kiwi(sarc).
And to add, Luxon must win with the amount of Paula Bennets wealthy business donations and NZs media bias to the right having such an influence over the gullible, how can he possibly lose, right?
Agree he can’t possibly lose,Labour though incompetence have gifted National the win.
Oh Bob you’re so naive .
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