National: 35
Labour: 26.5
ACT: 14.3
Green: 12.7
NZ First: 3.9%
Māori Party: 2.9
The Right wing Media tell you a National/ACT victory is a formality, National’s Tax policy which is stealing from 2 year olds, public transport and climate budgets for rich landlords certainly tells you National aren’t even pretending to hide who they are because they are convinced voters hating Labour is enough.
Truth is the entire election is on a knife edge.
NZF aren’t doing what they should be doing suggesting Winston’s lurch to the anti vaxx is deeply off putting.
There Greens have found a secret strategy of being slightly less ball less than Labour and because Labour are so spineless, it’s working for them!
Maori Party are set to generate an overhang.
Labour needs to do better in the campaign.
Whoever wins, Labour/Greens/MP vs ACT/National – it will be by one MP.
That’s how close the election actually is.
It ain’t over until the fat bigger sings!
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Will you still have hope when Labour & ACT are neck and neck? It’s over.
(:
Rat in a cage – So true
Stay in your cage rat. You should have kept to the woodpile.
Not matter how you scrub, the filth of ACT’s history will haunt it, and us, until The Twerker’s little tights fall off.
roger and derek are ACT. The twerker just picked up the sticky neo-ACT dildo and can now be seen running around with it while giggling. Roger was a two term finance minister within Labour who then went off to his crypt and started ACT to an orchestra of thunder bolts, mewling kittens and the smell of sulphur. ACT, the far right wing Greed is Good party was scripted using the blood of the very, albeit ignorant thus easily influenced people who voted for [it]. Now, if that’s not the very definition of traitor I don’t know what is. ACT is a clone party to National and National is dodgy as fuck but don’t take my word for it. Do your research? Look out the window? Do you see them? 14 multi-billionaires, 3118 multi-millionaires each with wealth in excess of $50 million each ( Got your lotto ticket yet, you lovely people trying to stay afloat on an ocean of heaving greed? ) And four foreign owned banks quite literally stealing $180.00 a second in nett, post tax profits every fucking second! 24/7/365. Do you really want ACT and it’s cloner donor Natzo scum back in power, slithering around your money? ( And if you think Labour’s most recent tenure as our government created the billionaires, millionaires and the foreign banks then you really should stay away from sharp objects.)
The reality is simple. We’re a small population of people of whom only about 50 K are farmers and those farmers create our export product from which we derive our income. From the revenue created from those exports we support ourselves within what could be reasonably described as a first world economy. At least until roger rat ( Perhaps they’re related? ) came along. But I’m tempted to digress.
If our farmers can bring home enough bacon to keep we 5.2 million souls plus 14 multi-billionaires and 3118 multi-millionaires with in excess of $50 million each while freely keeping the useless, pointless cadre of swine aka the four foreign owned banksters in lavish profits ( I read somewhere that the banks here get a greater return from we Kiwi’s than anywhere else. Am I correct?) then imagine if we, the people of our AO/NZ said STOP! No you fucking don’t, you cunts! Our money comes back to us. Not you. Not them, but us. We earn it. You manage our local political affairs. That, is all you do. Keep the fuck away from our money. Or fucking else.
And what might that “or fucking else ” be? Farmers? You make the money, they spend your money. What would you do if you were all to suddenly wake the fuck up at once? Whine? Moan? Drive a tractor slowly while looking surly? Blame them Mowries? Punch a cow? Swear at your dogs? Smack the Missus? Sulk on the kids? Have a heart attack? Commit suicide? Or would you simply do nothing unless you thinking striking is something. All that world class product and produce you give to Natzo-ACTzo crooks for fuck all? Don’t. Don’t give it to them. Don’t give it to anyone. Just stop it would ya? If the banks start threatening you? Then strike for another year. Honestly, it’s that simple and there’s great beauty in simplicity.
Take this rant from CB as seriously as a right wing rant that communism is coming to Nz should labour win, crazy stuff
I take him more seriously than your rant.
You could learn a thing or two.
Killing the banks dead CB is what would happen in short order if everyone paid off their mortgages ASAP and did not go into debt again. It’s as simple as that! It is entirely in our power but what is the chance that everyone would co operate?. This is because almost all our money was issued by banks as loans. paying it all back collapses it as mortgages as they are paid back to a bank are no longer in the money supply. The money you pay back repaying that mortgage is eliminated, as the system recognises that it still exists in the system in the hands (or actually the bank accounts) of the people you paid with it when you took it out. If it were not eliminated at the point of repayment the money supply would expand exponentially .
This would result in the govt needing to issue real new money that the banks have not created in making loans so they cant profit from ; and defacto a sovereign monetary system would emerge with the banks participation reduced to an accounting role for which they would have to charge for the service but not for the interest.
The idea of the state controlling the money supply is currently being talked about in horrified terms but this is because we have become so untrusting of government. The state should control and own the money supply, if nothing else, rather than private organisations with only their own selfish interests to concern them.
D J S
Countryboy – So true.
A National and ACT government will give us a world without public services, pay rises, unions, rest breaks, evolution in schools and civil rightd.
We can but hope haha
Millsy you along with all New Zealanders will be better off without a
Labour Government.
How will I be better off with having my wages frozen, my sick leave taken away and my access to healthcare restricted? O
As opposed to the bullshit Maori ‘science’ spruiked in schools now thanks to the ginga minga PM during his term as education minister?
That is fake news. Anyway, NACT want Evangalical Protestant Pentecostal Lutherians to run our schools, which will teach kids that the etheral father of some dead carpenter in Palestine (some drunk Roman soldier probably) created all of life on earth 6000 years ago, and that holding hands makes girls pregnant,.
Also from the looks of, they want to give state housing to the likes of Destiny Church, so you get kicked out if you are gay and stuff.
We will be able to eat the locust .
They are nutritious & full of protein.
Dont worry, when National have ripped the guts out of welfare, social housing and working conditions, we will indeed be eating locusts (though I guess with the dropping of the GE ban, at least they wont be eating our crops).
As usual millsy the opposition followers typically dismiss what they already know National will do, with sarcasm. Yet there will be many thousands who will suffer.
Many thousands are suffering now. And no, I’m not saying National or Act have the answers but what’s happening now is not working. That’s for sure. We have a sorry list of choices and I don’t see much light at the end of the tunnel with any of them. Just that Millsy’s idea that we are in some kind of nirvana with Labour and will all get to the Promised Land with them and it will all go to hell without them is tribal naivety. We’re already on the road to hell.
… and that road was paved with Labour’s “good” intentions.
Very well said Chris R.
We need to make allowances for millsy he’s been indoctrinated to a false train of thought from which he can’t break free.
We were already suffering under the 9 years of Nact, well before Labour. It is tribal to suggest otherwise.
Hyperbole, tell your kids never to rely on government from any stripes from an individual perspective if you want to get through life To think they give a fk about you individually is delusional
And what are the negatives
Evolution in schools? Heaven forbid
I hear AirNZ are selling a lot seats to yoofs, 12-35s and the managerial class who’re heading off to Germany, UK, and the US on one-way tickets. You have to wonder why.
Perhaps because NACT will be the most right wing government ever. For starters, wages will fall right thru the floor.
That’s OK, National will flood the country with immigrants and depress wages again, and we can then look forward to the good old days when we had the cost of living crisis which will be tame in comparison to the cluster fuck about to be reamed up our orifices.
That probably includes at least 25 Labour MP’s
Under 35s bad migration, PMC -, good migration.
The Eurozone is in for a big wake up when they figure out how crappy these so called Consultants and Managers are. Most of them wont last 12 months in the real world and sadly will be back here before long plaguing us once again.
I too thought this would be a ‘close’ election Martyn!
BUT over the last month or so of polls, I believe Labour are in the Bill English low bar of 23-26%, and the greens will get around the 10% mark.
national and ACT will get +50% plus on the day….Labour (the left) will be crushed, maori party will not reach the 5%, but will gain a cpl more MPs, and NZF will hit 6%.
Its clear NZ voting public want Labour gone and have clearly turned their backs on them. (with just cause, broken promises!)
Every party has rusted on supporters, I believe Labours is around 20-22% the extra 2-3% will come from voters that just vote as their parents have voted for decades.
You read it here first people….
We read your right wing trolling here first. Nah read it on Whale Oil before!
WOW….2 days to reply Squeaky, leaving a message after every non lefty comment on TDB?, C’mon that’s getting sloppy taking 2 days!
Were you busy down at WINZ, did you have to prove you were looking for work and promise to move out your mother’s basement..ohhh wait, under Labour you DON’T have to look for work D’OH!
Wishful thinking imo.
The left are polling lower every week.
The Eve of the War ~ with apologies to H. G. Wells
No one would have believed in the early years of the twenty first century that New Zealand was being watched keenly and closely by sociopaths with greed greater than the average man’s and yet as mortal as him; that as men busied themselves about their various concerns they were scrutinised and studied, perhaps almost as narrowly as a man with a microscope might scrutinise the transient creatures that swarm and multiply in a drop of water. With infinite complacency men went to and fro over this globe about their little affairs, serene in their assurance that whilst the All Blacks had the odd win, they could still afford beer, & they could keep the tank full in their Ford Ranger, all would be well (so long as “the bloody Maoris” didn’t control anything). Yet across the gulf of class and wealth, rapacious minds that are to our minds as ours are to those of the beasts that perish, intellects vast and cool and unsympathetic, regarded this land with envious eyes, and slowly but surely they drew their plans against us.
HG Wells was a big thinker (got involved in the League of Nations and then withdrew because the energy for thinking change wasn’t to be observed) and he was quite a lover. We could do with more like him around, a rounded person. Good person to think about.
NZF is a mutant head sprouting out of its neo-liberal clone- parent, the national party, so who cares.
I’d love to see/hear chipkins drunkenly denounce his New Neo-liberal Labor then try and woo Chloe Swarbrick over from the Seedy Greenies. In the ensuing confusion Chloe breaks Chipkins’s nose with the freshly picked organic sex carrot he witlessly took to the party.
Anybody seen a film titled ‘Holy Water’ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holy_Water_(film)
We need something like that. Anything but this. A humourless, witless, pathetic little road show of media egos with their even sadder wit desperately trying to hide common criminals and their common criminalities from their victims so bored they barely care whether they got fucked on the deal or not.
Thank God no one’s come up with the idea of taxing boredom.
These are the trends:
– Labour dropping; Greens are increasing but not at the same level as the drop
– Act/National have hit a ceiling of 48/49 but not 51/52
– NZF there or thereabouts
National/Act with NZF on a confidence and supply agreement with a foreign minister outside of cabinet with a side of fried duck.
Its not a single seat, its more. But its getting weird.
Those numbers add up to 95% of the vote. Remove NZF as wasted vote and its 91.5%. Do the maths and its a 65/55 right/left split.
Overhang is the biggest problem for the Right now. TPM will probably create an overhang, but the real oddity is that Labour might create one too, if their party voter keeps tanking but they hold electorate seats.
Glad to see NZ First drop, Winston is so desperate
Raijin, Winston will be back for certain sure.
Winston will be 7-8% for sure, NZF is the Thinking Man’s Party, so long as Winston and Shane Jones don’t go putting their foot in their mouth’s and start shooting themselves in their feet which they normally do around voting time. NZF have got good policies and good people.
Isn’t that a bit problematic? The party’s leaders can’t be trusted when opening their mouths? I think the country would be unanimous in pleading with Shayne Jones not to sing again.
I usually rate Curia poll and looking at this, I think it is spot on in all respects except that NZF will get 5% or more on the day. In which case, expect that increase to come at the cost of Labour. Maori Party at 2.5 – 3.5.
Now that it seems RAF definitely wont win ILAM, it’ll be interesting to see how much the TOP vote holds up on the day? Will they move to the Greens or splinter between Greens and Nats?
The reason NZF scores low in the Curia polls is because they’ve only just started including them in the last 6 or so months. So their average polling number will be lower than all the others that Curia polls have captured since 2020.
Martyn – Labour MPs still lying about National – ACT??
Fuck off Labour, te party maari and gweens better pull there fucken thumb out there arse.
It’s never a sure thing in an MMP election: Too often it produces random results based on tiny vote margins of the minority parties.
Perhaps Winston’s chances have gone down an incredibly well guarded toilet.
Let’s hope so Wheel!
26 % .. bring back Angry Andy. Him and Cunliffe were gone on that number.
The Labour back bench is so spinless and devoid of talent, that they are instead stuck in the headlights and…lambs to the political slaughter.
Andy better than angry Bishop, National so devoid of any talent they still have old age pensioners Brownlee and Collins still sucking on your tax payers title.
Sorry to burst your bubble, but National’s flagship policies are full of holes. Inflationary tax bracket changes that will give a pitance to those on minimum wage, but much more to those who have much more, with the main source of funding for their promises and their new roading plan, being overseas foreign money magic fountain slight of hand. If it wasn’t serious, it would sound like a scam that should be reported.
National plan to spend quarter of a billion on more plug in electric vehicle chargers, when some of the main car makers are now developing wireless charging systems, including BMW, means that the chargers National roll out may quickly become obsolete white elephants, like backing beta when everyone moves to VHS. But hey, it’s ONLY quarter of a billion, from the party that claims to be financially responsible.
Being finacially reponsible, would be for the govt to put money into the superfund to fund retirees, yet that got curtailed last time National was in govt. What will happen this time?
National are making spending promises like white collar drunken sailors with no thought for tommorow, epitomised by National’s disdain to do anything meaningful to address climate change. It would certainly be ironic if another cyclone bears down on NZ on election day, but then again, god moves in mysterious ways, and what connection is there between cyclones and climate change anyway. Just because the last decade has been the hotest recorded in human history, may just be a conspiracy by the suntan industry.
The main type of finance National knows about, is how to swindle and buy votes by promising lower tax. But even my rudimentary maths knows that less tax, but promising new spending, just doesn’t add up, without cutbacks. If it’s so easy to buy voters, by promising to tax foreign speculators, to then fund tax cuts, then off course Labour could make exactly the same promise. But would it be responsible? Would it be commonsense? Would it be financially prudent at this time? Of course everyone thinks low taxes are great. Post war USA actually had a 70% top tax rate all the way until the eighties when Reagan reduced it to 28%, and now there are whole city blocks in America, where thousands of people live in cars and tents with minimal public health care, in the richest country in the world. I’d rather live in a pre Reagan housing project than out on the street. BTW when the USA tax rate was 70%, there weren’t droves of rich Americans trying to emmigrate to lower tax countries.
Slash and Burn Chainsaw Luxon, needs to explain what he’s cutting. It certainly won’t be the new mega prisons. And it certainly won’t be the number of prisoners. And it certainly won’t be the $110k cost of keeping a prisoner in prison anually. On that I’ll admit, National has always been generous splashing the cash, or can they ask foreigners to cover that bill also? Why not send prisoners to some cheaper prison in China that might only cost a couple of thousand anually, maybe Nicola’s wet dream, not that I want to know what goes on in her head, apart from waiting for her chance to stab her boss in the back.
When govt departments cut back office staff, they can’t do everything they used to do properly. Easily seen with Police, who are mainly there to maintain order rather than solve the most complex offences, for which they would need far more back office technical people, accountants,scientists,computer experts, than they have.
The main benefactors from National that I can see will be landlords, by welcoming back foreign buyers, and making the very lucrative business of owning rentals more lucrative, with the bright line and tax deducibilty changes, and importing cheap labour who will need accomodation. It’s simple supply and demand, that translates to higher rent and lower wages, to get more growth. They have mentioned nothing on state houses, so if they get in, then presumably it will be business as usual, with the selling off of state houses beginning again in earnest, and of course, making the state house waiting look better by kicking people off it, is their usual way of improving the books. Personally I’d prefer more practical things, like help with paying for the dentist, and cheaper fruit and vege, and not being a serfe to the whims of my landlord.
Like all encumbant govts under current economic pressures, unfortunately Labour have it all uphill, because the inflation rate is not set to come down substantially until next year, meaning that cost of living and interest rates are relatively high for those having to refix mortgages, and I can’t see petrol prices coming down either, when you have conflict in Europe and opec cutting production. Not good factors for Labour, but completely out of their hands, though their clean car discount which National plans to ditch, is addressing it a little.
The polling closer to the election will be telling, when more of the undecideds become decided, after viewing the TV debates. Also telling will be how many voters will remember how Labour guided NZ, through the pandemic with health outcomes and economically better than virtually all comparable countries. If my memory serves me, National wanted to open the borders up, before NZ had even achieved a high vaccination rate…talk about commonsense.
I’m still waiting for either of the main parties to make some noises on canabis law reform, and I’d like to see National be more sensible, and strongly rule out the ACT parties policy of letting military weapons back into the hands of sporting shooters, since there is good reason why those weapons are called military.
Also like to see Labour pull it’s candidate from Ilam to give Oportiunities Party a boost. Labour won’t win Ilam anyway. As for NZfirst, if they get back in, this time they may go on the cross benches because NZfirst when part of govt, are always voted out at the following election, so the cross benches could be beneficial for them no matter what the govt is.
On the bright side, if Luxon doesn’t make it, then there will always be an opening for him on the comedy circuit, after hearing National complain about Labours attack adds. National wrote the book on attack politics, although technically it was Mr Hager. As well as trying to make NZ a tax haven for dirty money, they were feeding information to bloggers, playing games with OIA requests, attacking top public servants, and even getting the NZ secret service who of all the govt departments, need to be seen to be absolutely the most politically neutral, to help with attacking Phil Goff, was a new lowpoint. In any transparent democracy there would have been an inquiry into it all. They were Kremlin Stasi tactics in plain sight, yet National are now whinging about Labour, is a bit rich. Do they think Jason Eade has moved back into the Beehive, and is orchestrating Labours adverts? And because anything cam happen in politics, is there a rumour that Woodhouse has begun transitioning, to achieve a higher list ranking? Time will tell.
But National aren’t Labour, so there’s the counter.
Yeah well fuck labour allowing black rock in the door. “ it is estimated that by 2030 black rock will own 60% of rental properties in the US”
Blackrock is planning to invest in the environmental and green energy sector, not in residential housing. NZ is not the US. It’s speculators from China who want to invest in our houses.
You sound sure Kim – can you quote the relevant bit from the report you have – and source?
Turnout will favour right, Labour support is low but overstated, its going to be a bloodbath
Are you 3 years old?
History tell us National always oversold.
How do these comments not get screened for intelligence?
The left bloc will win. TPM first $30K income earned tax free. That’s between $90 and $120 extra for everyone earning between minimum wage and $70K PER WEEK.
Calculator here:
https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/tax_calculator
Have “we” had 15 years stuck in Austerity? Because it seems like it.
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