Fascinating Poll results from the Napier debate:
If a General Election had been held yesterday, which political party would you have voted for, with your party vote?
National – 25%
Labour – 20%
Māori – 3%
ACT – 12%
NZ First – 5%
Green – 3%
TOP – 1%
Unsure – 23%
Based on last election, that is an enormous jump for the Māori Party (.28% in 2020 election), ACT (8.1% in last election) and NZFirst (2.1% in last election) but what is staggering is the unsure vote which almost 1 in 4 voters.
Candidate vote also had an enormous unsure:
National – 37%
Labour – 28%
Unsure – 18%
It’s when asked if NZ is heading in the right direction the numbers get really bleak, 60% of Napier voters believed NZ was going in the wrong direction.
30% thought the Government had done a good or fair job of the cyclone recovery, 29% thought it was average and 30% thought it was poor or very poor.
The Napier poll is an interesting electorate because result because it shows ACT.NZ First and the Māori Party being the winners in dissatisfaction with National and Labour.
The audience were lovely, very welcoming and we were surprised how many truly wanted insight and oversight from their candidates.
Our next live-streamed debate is 7pm Tuesday next week from Ilam, Christchurch.
Again – no one else in the news media is attempting 7 live streamed TV debates this election, we do it because we believe in the debate!
Oh, and all done without one cent from NZ on Air.
WINNERS:
Māori Party – Extraordinary jump in votes shows a new generation coming through.
ACT – Have made ground since 2020
NZFirst – Have picked up numbers but should be further ahead in Napier than just 5%
LOSERS:
Labour – they simply haven’t lived up the promises they made. What’s the point of bread and butter politics if no one can afford the bread or butter?
National – Should be romping home, but they are losing voters to the fringes.
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Was this a poll of people attending the debate, or a poll of the electorate by a professional polling outfit?
POLL DATES: Sunday 20 August 2023. The median response was collected on Sunday 20 August 2023.
TARGET POPULATION: Adults in the Napier electorate.
SAMPLE POPULATION: Adults in the Napier electorate who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone.
SAMPLE SIZE: 400 respondents agreed to participate.
SAMPLE SELECTION: A random selection of 5,000 phone numbers who live in Napier.
WEIGHTING: The results are weighted to reflect the overall electorate voting population in terms of gender and age.
SAMPLE ERROR: Based on this sample of 400 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 4.9%, at the 95% confidence level.
CODE COMPLIANCE: This poll was conducted in accordance with the Research Association New Zealand Code of Practice and the International Chamber of Commerce/European Society for Opinion and Market Research Code on Market and Social Research.
Martyn – 23% unsure/not telling – will decide Napier at this stage
Good point Nathan. Chimes with a RNZ report (Tues 23/08) on New Plymouth, not a poll as such, but bods on the street asked. The views reported could have been constructed to present the position of RNZ, but the guts of it was: those asked (1) were confused (2) were undecided (3) thought that voting for either of the two main candidates (it was more about the electorate vote than the party vote) was Hobson’s choice- as one person put it, two hands but the same body).
On this basis (and that of Napier) it appears it’ll be the swing voters who’ll decide the outcome. Possibly on the day! That’s not new. And two ticks not one. What is absolutely certain though is that result won’t be the huge swing to red in the last election under extraordinary circumstances (and arguably the ‘Jacinda effect’ in 2017 that saw Labor surprise the pollsters).
Bozo – Nicely put
If someone “doesn’t know” who they would vote for if an election was held tomorrow, either they wouldn’t vote or they plan to vote for ACT & aren’t going to admit it. Ask your friends & colleagues, see what they say, or more specifically, don’t say.
All very interesting, it should not be forgotten that the Natzos have accumulated around 8 $mill in campaign funds so far to Labours 1 $mill. Money bags donors compared to small donors.
Wealth tax-“nasty taxes, it burnsss us…” but the parasite class always has enough spare loot it seems to donate to Natzos/Act/NZ First (this time anyway in NZ1’s case). The ruling class wants to cover all bases in 2023 to preserve its position.
A bent election coming up with privately owned media channels and millionaires blatantly plugging the right wing and finance capital while the bottom 50% do it hard.
The undecideds are a significant group for sure.
Yep, money talks as it has always done and with that, the more the money the more corruption.
Just ask Winston and his mates in the racing industry
Chris Hip-titanic-kins – full speed ahead – Neoliberalism forever, or bust.
I’ve visited the area lately and the devastation from Gabrielle is still looking so, so bad. It will take years to make right. Th Esk Valley is, I’m told, much, much worse.
So… with what the locals have endured and will endure for years to come, I am staggered that they give the Greens only 3%!
There’s none so blind who will not see.
Vivacious Vivisectionist So true.
It almost sounds as if the Nats and Act are buying this election. One wonders why there are so many rich donors out there paying for a change of government. It’s becoming obscene because these donors aren’t in it for the workers. So if you are a worker be very afraid because if there is a change of government it will be run by Mowbray ( toy man who makes his toys out of plastic) I think no matter what happens this page has also been overrun by right wing zealots and charlatans posing as people who care.
Business people are supporting National because they can see the country going backwards in so many areas and this means their businesses will suffer and owners and workers will all be losers.
Going backwards in so many areas, Trevor? Here I was thinking we were going forwards, albeit at snails pace.
No Stu Nash is a shame. Not many character s left in the Labor Party.
The ACT party is Seymour and he is a disgrace. Without ACT there is no party.
So get Guyfawkes out to give Seymours office a blast.
as our esteemed Editor said previously…“Nashy got the slashy…” and it was well deserved
The ACT party is Seymour and he is a disgrace. Without ACT there is no party.
You might want to read what you wrote, as it doesn’t say what I think you meant. Unless you meant without ACT, there is no new government, there is no solutions & there is no future for New Zealand.
Very well picked up, A-. Without “Seymour” there is no ACT party. The rest you write is fictional.
Very interesting. Fact based, face to face feel, and more meaningful to me than regular polls which are not so personal. That’s how this appears to me. I don’t like the result, but the medicine is said to be good for you if it doesn’t taste nice!
i think that this result will be similar in all the other bellweather seats. The heartland knows what it wants as do many or most of the cities, but there are still many ‘mixed’ electorates where most people dont know which way to jump.
I think Katie Nimon will take Napier as she is a quality candidate although the Labour guy is not bad either since he was convinced to actually front up. ILAM will be interesting to see if RAF has made enough of a difference.
My prediction is the Election goes to the Nats and NZF will get 5%. However, there’s still 8 weeks to go and anything is possible if Chippie really wants to make a difference. I think he is a bit tired of the constant stream of bad news all year and the fight is going out of him.
The Mousetrap by Agatha Christie was said to be the longest running play ever in London. Our elections are on a par, there are minor changes in presentation and vocab but on they go stretching out to the moon. And we know who has committed the crime.
It would become interesting I think, if the whole thing was turned on its head and we looked to see if we could find our way back to where we came from. When we set off, like Hansel and Gretel, we scattered virtual crumbs to mark our path so we could find our way back to base, but the freemarket got at those people in our politics and admin who are evil warlords and witches and they scooped up all the crumbs, and sold them as quaint artifacts from the Jewel of the Pacific.
” Party donations are also starting to come in. By law, parties must report to the Electoral Commission within 10 days of receiving any donation of $20,000 or more. As the commission uploads this data, we’ll keep a running tally of how each party’s war chest ”
Total of large donations received in 2023 for NZ political parties.
$2,044,756- National
$1,455,000-ACT
$631,141-NZF
$546,260-Green
$458,804-Labour
$116,052- Freedom
$50,000-Maori
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/the-latest-election-data
” Farrar believes National is benefiting from a strong desire to change the government.
“I don’t think policy is a big part because a huge amount of donations came in before there was a lot of policy out there.”
So policy is about as meaningful as an honest politician.
And there are those who believe we participate and live in a liberal democratic society.
Its no surprise that so many are cynical and see no point in casting a vote when it is so corrupted in favour of a very small amount of parasites.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/in-depth/496383/national-banks-7-point-5-times-more-in-donations-than-labour
” Farrar believes National is benefiting from a strong desire to change the government”.
Spot on. The ‘change the government’ thing happens with regularity, at least in NZ, and the blue camp are riding the crest of the wave, fueled by a supportive narrative. Everyone likes to back a winner, yes?
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