Labour dropping below 30% is a psychological kick in the guts for Labour, but after terrible months of self mutilating Minister after self mutilating Minister, Labour is pulling back.
If you remove the don’t knows from the most recent Guardian Poll, Labour does better…
…however the most recent internal Talbot Poll is even better for Labour…
…combine this with the fact Labour underpoll and National overpoll and that the Māori vote is always underrepresented (as is NZ First) and the outcomes are still too close to call.
When all is said said and done I think whatever faction wins it will do so by a one seat majority.
Despite capitulating on a wealth tax, Capital Gains Tax, cutting beneficiaries out of working for families, only taking GST off fruit and vegetables instead of taking it off all food – despite the lack of transformative change, Labour can still snatch mediocrity from the jaws of defeat.
Watch for Coat tailing, the threshold and overhang all playing a role in an MMP election this polarised.
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Tip the balance, vote on the periphery.
Even if you your old gran voted Labour all her life. Even if your family are all vehemently ‘Tribal Labour’.
Martyn – Any poll that has the Greens at 10%, or Labour over 30% at this stage is a bit rogue.
It’s the Talbot Mills survey – Labour’s own
Andrew – Now I get it!
Dead cat bounce. Labour don’t deserve even 15% and the opposition aren’t doing enough wrong to allow Labour to be at 30. No government this bad, the worst ever in my experience, can be allowed to get near power again!
So why are National and Act so appalling and don’t have a total polling above 90%?
Actually I answered my own question, so all good.
To get near power again?
I would have thought 240v DC would be exactly what they need…
+1 JSB.
If you continue to believe in the invisible flying wizard, I suppose National has a chance.
100% xray
Agree completely. It’s been nothing but a total debacle the day Jacinda took office.
Apparently their only hope of victory is an immediate switch to “Parker/O’Connor 2024”, but I suspect they are too incompetent to even attempt that.
Labour have pandered to increasingly marginal identity woke groups and alienated many of their supporters who are very angry now. Woman used to like them, but Labour seem to support the Greens in thinking that stopping freedom of speech and supporting men who punch out older ladies at protests is ok and trans woman refugees can just leave the country after an attack, think again.Plus the constant pandering and funds to sex criminals who want to change their gender.
Im not fan of National, but the concern of how much much Labour will rack up in debt for their wokesters getting billions if they get in again and how the other 75% of NZ have to fund it and get state crumbs is hard to bear.
Meanwhile recently reported that a sick Maori family with 3 small kids tried 3 times to access a housing grant aimed at fixing Maori housing but got nothing. Mental health billions spent, nobody seems any better. $40k is the send off for Pacific Island people ministry. Money no object in Wellington for parties and cultural events. So much so they are even planning 13.2 billion for a new health system – think how much money these bureaucrats can waste – just like the housing! Kids still in motels, Maori still in damp houses, Gangs everywhere, shootings becoming more common and gangs join in the funding lolly spree and have 2.8 million from proceeds of crime too.
Chipkins and Labour are Fried.
You miss the mood of the country. People just hate Labour. Trust needs to be earned and this takes time. No matter what Chippy says, people don’t trust Labour after the Labour brand has become toxic for well over a year. In contrast, National can say the dumbest things (like ban cellphones, ban anything!!) and people will still vote for them.
that’s sounding a bit like Chemical Ali ‘ there are no American tanks in Baghdad!’
We can criticize poll results according to who has paid for the poll and their historic reliability but there is one fact we can’t hide from.
The supposedly worst government of all time filled with incompetent ministers who have not achieved anything in 6 years except lead us to financial ruin and generational debt is still in with a chance to win re-election.
Why Nat/Act aren’t ten points ahead or 15 is the real question that should be asked.
2032? A new hope?
A new hype…
Can dead people cast a vote?
Even dead cats bounce
Bad by who by you XRAY many of us still prefer Labour with mates. National have a very inexperienced and unpopular leader who despite all our mainstream medias hype and a…kissing many NZers cannot relate to him he come across as false, fake and flaky.
Labour would have to change the leader to poll over 32.
Either Parker or bring back Angry Andy.
… To win in 2053! 😉
Hope dies hard, and painfully.
The taxpayers union poll is Nationals polling themselves.
Glimmers of hope for Labour…..Good one Martyn……I laughed and laughed….
“David Parker will not say whether he thinks Labour’s GST policy will work.” Yep, a faint glimmer of no hope…
” Despite capitulating on a wealth tax, Capital Gains Tax, cutting beneficiaries out of working for families, only taking GST off fruit and vegetables instead of taking it off all food – despite the lack of transformative change ”
That speaks volumes to me that they have failed to be in any way transformative with a program with a MMP MAJORITY to boot.
Sure the ministers that have had to resign does not show a disciplined well manged team and Chipkins is responsible for that reality including David Parker to add to your list Bomber who resigned the revenue portfolio in disgust at the failure of his Prime Minister to push for long overdue tax reform that shows how bad the system actually is. Mr Parker is a formidably intelligent man and probably one of the best brains in the cabinet.
Not much was made regarding David’s decision to resign that portfolio because he is still a member of cabinet and did not resist arrest but his decision was hardly even analysed because his action in resigning did nothing to harm the people on six figure salaries or those with immense wealth….Chipkins saw to that.
Notice how TPM have been quite since their hopeless tax policy was put out.
Er, no, they operate in a parallel layer known as the Māori world, and have been very busy day in day out doing the hard yards in communities around the country you would probably not be aware of.
Have you ever been on a marae Trev? or had any ongoing contact with Māori people? because if your main source of information is media channels you will be under informed on such matters.
Andrew – Now I get it!
Chipkins and Labour are Fried.