BOOM: Roy Morgan Poll: MMP Spectrum Splintering: Labour Party Collapse

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It’s going to be a Splintered MMP spectrum election:

Roy Morgan poll for July:

National: 33.5 (3.5+)

Labour: 26 (4.5-)

Act: 14 (1-)

Greens: 9 (0.5-)

Maori: 6 (1-)

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NZ First: 5 (2+)

TOP: 4 (1+)

Labour are in free fall and total meltdown. Their tepid incremental meaningless bullshit and political cowardice has seen voters turn in disgust to other political options.

Right now, all Labour are impotently promising is GST off fresh fruit and vegetables, instead of utilising this leak and leveraging it politically,  they will just insipidly roll it out rather than surprise the Electorate by taking GST off ALL food, this after the disappointment of the Wealth Tax.

Labour have no policy and are as weak as the Greens. Political cowardice is never rewarded and until Labour grows a spine and makes an actual stand they will continue to slide.

This means we will see a splintered MMP Spectrum Election where neither main Party is in the 40s and where the Māori Party and NZ First cross 5% and TOP wins Ilam and also brings in MPs off the coat tails.

Labour either stand for something or they hang for everything.

The mood of the Nation is deeply depressed at the lack of real progress on the issues that actually matter, which is the cost of living crisis…

…60% now believe NZ is moving in the wrong direction and are throwing their votes around at anything that promises to be a solution.

Labour either grows a spine, takes GST off all food or they hand this election over to the hard Right.

 

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148 COMMENTS

  1. If there’s anyone with a spine, anyone actually left-wing, within Labour, they are obliged to roll Hipkins now.

    We’re waiting.

      • If they actually care about winning, Labour have to dump Chippy right now, and have a front bench clean-out. Like how Gillard was rolled by Rudd ten weeks out from the election.

        • And replace him with whom? They’re all progressive neoliberals Kristoff, and most of them are way too stupid to be trusted anywhere near the levers of power. LINO are a write-off.

        • Too little, too late Kristoff. People have had a gutsful and no-one believes in them anymore. they are beginning to see through everything that is done. The ten weeks out from the election might work if you had a fresh new star (like Kiri was once said to be) but petulant Parker and long termer O’Connor havent risen to the top during their 20 year? careers. Too little, too late.

    • They are poll driven. Labour will come up with something. How what the come up will hold up to scrutiny is the problem that they face. That is why they are playing for time.

      I would recommend to labour that Hipkins back flips on wealth tax and roll out the policies on tax reform (wealth tax) that Grant, Parker and labour have been working on for the last five years. At least they have some understanding of how these policies will affect society.

      Hipkins will have to stand back, do an Andrew Little, for this back flip to have any substance.

      • Good idea. Sarcasm. Strange how the massive drop of Labour in polls coincides with the Greens releasing their wealth tax idea!

        Not only does Labour take a dive, but Natz go up and people are already selling up their businesses in NZ. More jobs lost. But the echo chamber continues with the lefties echo chambers who seem to think the enemy of NZ is current people with money and jobs who they want to get more taxes out of! Woke thinking is to encourage more poor, gangs, crims, woke, fringe groups and takers into NZ to replace them.

        It is becoming clearer that Labour have not delivered and made worse everything they campaigned on, enabled more violence and crime, but also spent an absolute fortune and put the country into huge debt.

        The got their petrol tax in Auckland and then failed to actually spend it on trains for public transport – instead everything is worse because the Greens and Labour don’t even make mandatory climate change in their strategies. From free trade to Waka Kotahi, Labeen they have no climate change strategy that allows for much greater climate damage in their buildings and roads.

        Homeless didn’t get the 60 million allocated, as the committee too woke and lazy to get anything done. Probably trying to work out how their sidekick agendas like self ID gender, could get the cash and legal aid for aggressive activist woman beaters.

        Keep mentioning more and more taxes for projects that are absolute failures while costing a fortune, and guarantee that Labour fall further!

        • Come on, that’s unfair to say labour have not delivered.
          Even one of their most useless MP’s, Kelvin Davis delivered.
          He promised to lower prison populations, and he has.
          Promised – Delivered – success.

          • Yes, because cramming our prisons till they are are overflowing like what happens in the USA works so well. Unless you are comforatable with prisoners getting raped and shanked all the time.

        • Clearly obvious that you love the rich so much, that you don’t want them to pay a single cent more in tax to fund our public services and welfare system.

  2. Offering GST off selected foods is so silly that it shows how desperate Labour has sunk and are clutching at every passing straw.

    • Trevor. “… GST off selected foods is so silly.” Of course, but it’s a good example of the torturous level advisors and pr type public servants function at. Pollies should listen to the punters instead of the dingbats paid to tell them how to think.

  3. I’ve said this before and I’ll say this again

    Winston Peters will be 10-15% on the night..

    As the left crumbles further moderate Labour will swing in behind NZF to neutralise Seymour and Nat’s globalist BS

    Winston Peters last election will be his best

    • NZF has a main, populist policy of eliminating Te Tiriti and Te Reo. For some reason nobody wants to talk about that.

      • He has a policy of eliminating the Maaori language? And prithee tell, how does he plan to do that, JohnO?

        • He wants to get rid of all the Te Reo on government department names etc.
          Nobody in TPM or Greens talks about it. It’s as if Winston is a protected species.

      • Incorrect JohnO.

        He thinks Te Reo is for Maori (and I dont disagree, not too many years ago, Maori said encouraging Pakeha to speak Te Reo was ‘damaging’? the mana of Te Reo and I get this too.

        As to the treaty, he is in agreement with Sir Apirana Ngata on it’s purpose etc (Havent read this so dont know what he thought) However, I have heard Winstone quote Sir A’s writing on it.

    • Easily over 15%, Winston is just getting warmed up. A vote for anyone else is a vote for the segregationists who fervently backed Ardern’s covid doctrine of 2022. Dehumanisation, segregation and economic persecution do not belong in our land. There was much resistance at the time, far greater than the media would have you know. That bloc of the electorate aren’t in the business of trading off their’s, or anyone else’s rights.

    • I think National /ACT on 55% and 3Winston, if he gets in, sitting on the cross benches. One poll at just5% is no guarantee and once in the polling booth people vote for which government they want and this usually costs the minor parties.

    • Where will those votes come from Kirk?

      You could be right on the night, but those votes will mostly come from tribal Labour voters abandoning a sinking ship, but who wouldn’t go as far as to vote for their old ‘class enemy’.

  4. Ardern jumped like a rat from a sinking ship because she knew what the future held for her party. Pure vanity on Ardern’s part for not wanting her “saviour” legacy tainted by the upcoming election loss

    • Spot on Xs.

      She has, and always will be, about padding out her CV and building Brand Jacinda.

      Once that stops happening (wherever she happens to be), she’ll move on to something new.

      Of course, her brand had become so toxic that she had to go.

      I think we can thank to Wellington protest for a lot of that.

    • Ardern shows the weakness of voting for a celebrity rather than party. To me this makes a Luxon lead party a better choice because he is genuine .

      • I agree Luxon is a genuine scammer, saying what you want to hear, promising what you want to hear. Using well practised scamming methods, if he can fool enough people, if he can hoodwink enough votes, and scam his way into the election, before people see through it. He is genuinely good at pretending to be genuine. Like when he pretended to be in Te Puke, when he was in Hawaii. Like when he pretends to support NZ businesses, but badmouthed them to business audiences in the UK. Like when he pretends to be against the illegal war in Ukraine, but through his actions supported the illegal war in Yemen.
        Their will be many who fall for Luxons scam, just like the many who have fallen for phone scammers, handing over $millions to those scammers in the last year.
        Yes…. Luxon genuinely prays…. on the gullible.

      • Very true, Trevor. Noone will ever expect Luxon to competently emulate a touchy feely yet not substantively compassionate person like Ardern. He’ll always just be an unpleasant robot.

  5. Well many thousands of posts have been made re NZ Labour squandering their 2020 MMP majority, which may never happen again for any party. Labour should have gone in hard and done things for the working class, retired rogernomics etc. but of course they have been a multi class party for 39 years now and could not go there.

    So they have themselves to blame. It does not take a political genius to realise Cap’n Chippy will regret that call on CGT and wealth tax. And the Natzos are no better–pandering to brain dead boomers, truck love and international capital, rather than facing the change that is here thanks to “global boil”.

    It is amusing though that the usuals suspects that dissed the last Roy Morgan just love this one…

    Every party is fighting for their survival this time, and a more meaningful poll would be on the left/right balance.

    • Labour could have done all those things, except they aren’t a left wing party. They haven’t been since 1984. Maybe they’ll learn something from a crushing defeat? Probably not though. 🙁

    • Labour have no idea who the working class is. The working class is more likely to vote Act than Labour.

      Who, apart from Willie Jackson is working class in Labour. And in saying that he’s a multi-millionaire who used to send his kids to Kings while living in Mangere.

    • Labour should have gone in hard and done things for the working class, retired rogernomics etc.

      Absolutely agree – Unbelievable just how un-transformational they have been.

    • And this is what you get for attacking and canceling 15%-20% of Kiwi. It’s a go fuck yourself from them.

      • There is no Labour Party anymore in New Zealand this current lot have proven that beyond doubt.
        Seriously what does this Labour Government stand for?
        What does the Chipster stand for?
        Let’s take New Zealand back.

  6. I have never seen so many angry ex labour and Greens supporters. They shat on their voters and obsessed over fringe groups, blew billions of dollars with nothing to show for it, while discriminating against the majority of people living in NZ in favour of woke causes – generally pro criminal class, Woke Maori and Woke Pacific Islanders. I say woke because Maori and Pacific Islanders don’t actually get a say of what is happening in their name by woke NZ, it is fringe elitist working and getting funding ‘in their name’.

    There is a point where putting yet more woke everywhere is becoming a joke when they are completely unqualified and out of their depth, thus the advent of Karakia to fill in the gaps of knowledge. Instead of the Karakia being used for major events or deaths, now it’s Karakia everywhere, before school starts, (even though school is supposed to be secular in NZ), before council meetings, before justice meetings, before business meetings, nobody can get anything done, because much of the time now is spent on meaningless woke bullshit. Karakia is a popular manifestation.

    Most Maori are probably more interested in justice moving forward, health moving forward, councils doing their job for flooding and roads and their kids being educated, than 20% of all NZ productivity being thrown away by some grandstander wokie, taking up the time to wokify everything into non productivity.

    One of the problems in NZ is poor productivity, this has only got worse with woke bullshit Karakia being used as a political weapon in the public and private sector. It is similar to in China, Political Officers being everywhere and making sure someone is present to ‘oversee’ every part of NZ state life but in NZ it is an ethno woke grifter, being put on every group and committee with zero subject knowledge but a ton of power. If you watch Chernobyl with the ‘shoe salesman’ turned Mayor who didn’t believe in the nuclear meltdown and wouldn’t do anything that the scientists told him, because he was put in charge. That is NZ, committees structure. Woke, woke, woke.

    There is zero interest from government in finding out whose pockets the missing billions went into that they have nothing to show for. But pretty sure it went into the more and more powerful woke. The Maori and Pacific Islanders and homeless and criminal class they took it for, somehow have gotten worse off. Surprise, surprise.

    • Good comparison between the overuse of Karakia and Political Officers in PRC – Karakia and similar being used as a ‘cultural enforcement tool’ to try and weed out any dissenters to the current cultural indoctrination. Not everyone in NZ is either Maori or interested in trying to pretend they are.

    • Smearing all Maori as crininals. You are really showing your inner GOP.

      I suppose you want cops to give out summary executions then.

    • Missing billions of dollars….
      Saw a young Maori lass getting out of a brand new Range Rover at Mangere Bridge, last week, dressed like Kim Kardashian going to a party, about lunchtime it was.
      Something about the way she moved and deferentially spoke to the truck Sri er who was maniuvering nearby made me think it was aallll new money.

      Also heard through my Maori nephs that there’s so much extra money

      from very nice thankyou contracts and wages / salaries,

      that there’s a bit of weapons purchasing and stashing here and there…

      Missing billions.
      2017 to 2020 we knew it was the good contracts or settlement money buying the new cars range rovers even white Bentley aye uncle…

      But from 2020 on…
      Very good salaries,
      Thanks!

  7. Labour aye? Good ol labour. It, like all AO/NZ politics, is suffering from end-stage neo-liberalism.
    What’s maddeningly worse is that the scum who infected us with thatchers wig monster attached to regan’s withered little prick puppet where all the strings being pulled went all the way to milton ‘Oy vey! What a profitable shemozzle!’ friedmans wallet, are off. Gone with our money, and 39 years of our lives. The perfect crime. The Kiwi-As neo-liberals did a masterful head-fuck job of convincing us to throw ourselves under a bus immediately after we allowed ourselves to be *divested of our hard earned state assets to create within their covens and crypts a criminal and almost militarised underworld of now 14 multi-billionaires, 3118 multi-millionaires with wealth in excess of $50 million each and a shoal of foreign banking piranhas stripping our meat from our bones on an otherwise rich and fertile country while our people literally live and die in the gutters or in flop houses if they’re lucky.
    * “In finance and economics, divestment or divestiture is the reduction of some kind of asset for financial, ethical, or political objectives or sale of an existing business by a firm. A divestment is the opposite of an investment. Wikipedia”
    ‘A divestment is the opposite of an investment.’ It sure fucking is, aye boys?
    Solution? Is there one? I can think of a couple of courses of action but many of the commenter geniuses here will think of better ones I’m sure. Like doing nothing, or bash @ Maori or wring your Woke little hands or diffuse and confuse to create a vibrant move towards nothing much. Isn’t that correct?
    We should bury Buckingham Palace with urgent requests for Royal Commission’s of Inquiries while simultaneously crowd funding private investigations into who was behind roger’s neo-liberal treason and treachery.
    But of course we won’t. We’ll simply pull up the deck chairs and go down with the Titanic.

  8. Chris Hipkins is a colourless centrist politician.
    In the midst of a cost of living crisis GST off food is a no brainer for lowering food costs and winning the election.
    Hipkins is a centrist leader with with little enthusiasm for leading a left wing coalition.
    There is no way that the Labour leader will let his party take the front benches if he thinks his administration will be beholden to the Maori Party or the Greens.

    As Chris Trotter likes to say of the centrists like Hipkins, they would rather keep control of the losing side, than lose control of the winning say.

    The danger of Hipkins strategy for our democracy is this; As voters become disillusioned and turn away from parliamentary politics as an agent for change, that not just that the parliamentary Right will win, as they will. But that the extra parliamentary Far Right will grow to fill the political vacuum left behind by Labour’s surrender.

    • Yeah but Pat, there is always the outside possibility that we get a grand coalition. Where the bigger winners see the potential way forward together rather than at the fringes.

      2 little Neo Lib peas in a pod with a chance to really clear the decks in NZ who will most likely (if it ever happened) squander another three years pushing each other on ideology while keeping business happy.

  9. I guess the posters here will be loving this. They long for a Nact government that will impose payfreezes, cut the public sector, and launch programs against LGBTQ’s.

    • Instead of launching programs against woman which has now become the norm with Labour and Greens, such as language and freedom of speech.

      A little known woke fact that white, cis-gender males, are responsible for all the violence in the world according to Marama.

      PM doesn’t know what a woman is, and wants to stop woman’s rights groups from speaking and Marama thinks that heterosexual men are the only violent ones. Wonder why the polls show a drop when they seem to blame white, hetrosexual males for all violence and want to cancel biological woman?

      • Um, you do realise that white heterosexual males are Christian, and it is Christian doctrine for males to beat their wives and daughters. Says right there in the Bible,

        Why dont you just admit you are racist and homophobic.

        And you arent keen on women, I think I read you saying that abortion and birth control should be banned, and women should submit to God and Jesus our Lords and Saviour..

          • Yes millsy is the poster of the absurd.
            He/she is so dumb I can’t believe their childlike posts are published.
            Is it really bert?

            • One day, out of the blue, Blob might surprise us with something mature but I seriously doubt it. Now back on the kiddy website you go Blob.

          • Yep 100% – SaveNZ is a woman and I dont recall her ever saying anything of the kind. It’s all Millsy’s stock satandard paid for troll response.

            • Sounds like a Karen then. Probably would have had blacks lynched if she was around in the 1950’s. Just like that lady who got Emmit Till strung up

        • And Luxon has stated abortion is murder , women need to see the danger in these words. The nats have many right wing christian zealots who would change our abortion laws in a heartbeat. You right wing NACT gazers on here says it won’t be done well Just look what they did in America. Enough said. So women be very afraid if you think the transgender people are taking away your freedom just wait until the state gets started. You will start paying for contraception and lose your right to an abortion.

    • Noon wants to “launch programs against LGBTQ’s” but we are all getting a little tied of the radical reverse.

    • Poor millsy
      It’s a living nightmare for you. You should be safe unless you work at the Ministry of….aaah so many to chop!

    • Of course the Nats nor ACT would implement pay freezes – what utter crap. They are hands off by nature. Government control is a left attribute.
      Yes they will cut down the size of the State apparatus. That is exactly what their supporters (i.e. the voters) are asking for. NZ has never had so much taxation, so much public debt and so much government spend for so little delivered.
      No they will not attack LGBTQ – why would they?

      • ACT will freeze the minimum wage. This will flow up, as wages across all level are frozen. They will also let employers cancel sick leave and paid holidays.

  10. Yes X Ray. And the first thing Winston will do when he minister of foreign affairs is sack Mallard.

    We actually need his experience as Minister of foreign affairs right now.

    • Good. I am tired of these old hacks who have creamed off incredibly good salaries over many years then getting their snout into the ambassadorial jobs.

      No politicians should ever get these jobs.

  11. I bet Anker would be loving this. She is so LGBTQ phobic and racist, she is willing to strip thousands of workers of their wages and conditions to ensure they are kept down. She also supports police brutality, and imprisoning Maori without trial.

      • You are denying it…?

        And you go on and on about how wonderful Act is. If you vote for them, you vote for their agenda, that includes huge cuts to public service and working conditions.

        • Sorry, are not. Still, I believe that you wish to sign up to a far right Trumpist policy agenda that will inflict misery on society.

          • Millsy, as I have told you many times, I have a close relative who is gay and I noted their civil ceremony.
            I am married to a Maori. So don’t appreciate your assertions mate.
            I am gender critical and I think it is not possible for a man to become a women. I am very angry that tras want to disregard women’s sexed based rights and amongst other things enter our changing room. I don’t care if a man wants to wear a dress, just don’t come into the women’s change room where women and girls are in a state of undress. This should not have to be said. Oh and when women get beaten up for trying to have a rally to talk about this, that makes me angry.

            I probably will vote Act. They are not going to cut frontline services, but a number of ministries and bureaucrats. While I am sorry for people who might lose their jobs, I am pleased because I think many of these jobs are a waste of money

            • You do realize that ACT want to rip the guts out of wages and conditions? No sick leave, paid holidays smoko breaks or right to join a union. I cannot believe that you are that evil.

              And people who are married to Maoris are still fucking racist. You haven’t denied that you want to lock people up for being Maori.

            • Front line workers need those admistrators and cleaners and ancillary stuff to ensure the machine of state keeps running. Otherwise you will just have nurses and cops filling out forms.

              I would trust an administrator or public service than a nasty racist Karen who wants to lock brown people up anyday.

            • Plus I read somewhere you want to charge people for hospital visits. I wouldn’t be surprised if you supported Trump. The most racist president in the USA’s history.

  12. I hope so. Arden should not have smiled when she agreed that she was establishing the WEF’s two- tier society.

      • saveNZ. I’m angry with both Labour and the Greens, but Reti creeping around encroaching upon the privacy and the dignity of unwell ambulance patients is mind-bogglingly bad, more so from a fellow who’s had the supposed benefit of professional career training.

        The use of the karakia may be a passive-aggressive dynamic from righteous bullying public servants, and there seem to be times when it is as inappropriate as Dr Reti. Management in govt departments tend to go along with what their Human Resources people tell them to do , hence the Ministry of Education being run by “ Inside Out”, with their damaging Gender IQ lies. No surprise either to learn that Kiwibank, about whom Consumer has received the biggest number of complaints in the previous twelve months, is government owned.

        • Snow White I am sure if what Reti did was wrong, his professional body will investigate and discipline him

          • Ada In my experience, the consultant or registrar in charge, has always asked the patient’s permission for other/s to be present. I once declined, after the consultant, whom I knew well, advised that I could if I wanted to. When the trainee intern involved did visit my hospital bed for my permission, I said that I preferred not, and he was ok about it.

            Dr Reti is a qualified medical practitioner, not some trainee. If he still needs to be learning, then he should do refresher courses, and not indulge himself in haphazard ambulance chasing.

        • Yeah, heaven forbid that kids know that LGBTQ people exist. Much better for them to know that a dead Palestinian carpenter is in the same room as them and tells them what they can and cannot do.

        • Disagree Snow. I think Reti did the right thing and I do believe he is a principled person. You need to experience the front line if you are to manage it and hospitals will batten down the hatches these days if you turn up there.

          I also think if the patient was me, I’d rather a doctor on board than just a paramedic (No criticism of paramedics intended).

          • Fantail, You’re free to disagree. It’s not clear what Reti was doing, but he’s given the impression that he was out to learn about the state of our health system, rather than helping patients. The paramedics are very good, and with longish serious trips, for example on helicopter flights, there can be qualified medical practitioners on board, flown in and out specifically to help the relevant patient.

          • Fantail. Reti could also be trespassing on other doctors’ cases, which is a bit ethically dubious. Convention dictates that doctors, or their patients, invite second opinions. The bottom line is that he is a politician, many of whom are dubious per se, and being a National politician and being altruistic, isn’t a natural mix.

        • Reti checking out the actual conditions on the frontline of a public service and knowing what’s going on in his shadow portfolio is the job. Did Carmel Sepeloni go under cover to see how beneficiaries are treated in Winz phone que or Marama Davison spend a couple of nights in a Rotorua motel with a mum and kids and then take action back in Wellington to be transformative. Willie was the Minister for unemployment did he find or create work for the 140,000 unemployed or ensure they were up skilled? Was there any plan?

        • You think that vaccines are evil. Like science I guess. Maybe that dead carpenter can protect you. Karen or Jesus. Take your pick.

    • It’s hilarious that you people blame a weird economics nerd with a Col. Klink accent for all your problems, while ignoring the actual conspirators of finance capital.

      • It’s weird you think they’re not networked. Networking against us is all they do. Look at it from their pov. Of course they need to control us. We are all they fear.

    • Her mission to divide New Zealanders accomplished.An old left wing tactic practiced as part of some socialistic ideal. Aye Comrades.
      Look at the hate and anger she has engendered.

  13. Labour can eat shit for at least one election cycle and they deserve it.
    Abandoning their core base and not delivering transformational change is bad enough but their embracing of woke identity politics is the last straw.
    Good riddance.
    Dont get me wrong, life under Nact is going to be truly awful but hey thats Labours fault too.

    • That is it, innit. It’s not that National is winning, it is Labour losing. Putting Cunliffe to shame.

    • that’s why we all want the Gnats on under 35%. And as many small parties in Parliament as we can get in there . Clutter the place up and make it an utter nightmare for the NAtzos. Best possible result. Will sort the wheat from the chaff and the control freaks will have to work their arses off!

      • Shona. Not sure that I’d call NZ First a small party, and Winston Peters has never been a small man. I look forward to his return more than that of any other of the motley mob up there now.

    • They’re facing oblivion. Ardern knew it and thought pulling the plug on her brand would change it. But the rot is far deeper. There are too many fronts, one cannot keep up!

      • Looking at the polling graph, Labour was actually lower (25.5%) in November 2022 than it is now. That is when Ardern decided to go out.

        I don’t want to over-extrapolate the polling trend in the graph above, but the election can’t come soon enough for Labour.

    • I’m sure you stand for National and ACT finishing where Ruth Richardson left off. All you care about is getting tax cuts and are willing to plunge as many people in hardship as it takes

  14. One thing not helping Labour is the obscenely huge salaries some Public Servants (sic) are getting. See this piece* in the Herald, a photo of 4 grinning chaps heading the current iteration of 3 waters creaming between $602,500 to $815,500 p.a. Yes, really. And the boss of Te Pukenga on 2/3 of a mill, who has led the Polytech sector into its current dog’s breakfast state.

    My proposal: no public servant should be paid more than a Minister’s salary (unless there are the most extreme extenuating circumstances). If these public servants really think they are worth that much, let them head off into the private sector.

    *www.nzherald.co.nz/business/the-new-three-waters-bosses-and-why-their-pay-is-so-extraordinary/NA3WZXLF5FET7ACH3DMGCF5XEI/

    • Tom Gardener 100%. And this is the monstrous government which kneecapped the invaluable Commissioner for Vulnerable Children, and employs Gender ID extremists to run the Education Department and prematurely sexualise, damage and confuse young school children.

  15. Are the LINO MP’s feeling the pressure I wonder with these polls pointing to a defeat which will be an historical reversal from the Covid election just less than 33 months ago.

    Or is caucus nerves being soothed with cuddles and kindness from Mr Hipkins promising his MP’s he has it in the bag.

    A LINO MP I talked to recently admitted that they have made a number of serious mistakes that will cost them being re-elected and out of government for the next decade.

    It seems the NZLP has once again signed its own death warrant.

    The nasty NACT cum Winnie Jones will possibly make it in but only by default. Their current polling shows how like the imaginary left their vote is down and there is no enthusiasm or confidence for the Luxon alternative.

    It seems like we will just continue to drift with no change in the status quo for another three years while the same wealthy inhabitants and the Aussie shareholders continue to legally defraud vast numbers of ignorant Kiwis.

  16. ” By favouring its sitting MPs, Labour has clearly tried to limit any public backlash from those MPs headed for the exit.
    They are finished and Chipkins knows it and is already planning the eulogy’s for all his colleagues who supported his bread and butter back to basics leadership.

    Continue reading at https://www.politik.co.nz/hipkins-spins-the-list/ | Politik

  17. Pleased to see the popularity of your posts, versus the censorious ‘The Standard’ for the Rogernome Labour Party.

    The election is not lost by any means but the Left needs to ‘shout’ for reality now. Who would do that is a mystery. This is the end, the endless short-term shit is over and this is the last chance to do something about it. Maybe newly discovered Leftist Parker will start talking. If Rob Campbell can start talking for the people there are possibilities.

  18. I did say here that if nzf polled consistently and didn’t look like a wasted vote they would skyrocket. I like Chippie but Labour’s strategy of picking by diversity and Maori rather than talent has left them in a lurch. The incoming government will find the civil service has been culled in a similar fashion and will need to make big changes real fast.
    Let’s see if the polls continue in this direction or if this is an outlier.

  19. I would be interested to see a long term trend of the main two parties, since MMP’s inception.
    My gut feeling is the overall trend will show they are both declining. There will be the odd anomaly, for example Jacinda’s COVID election which was the result of two factors.
    1. COVID 19
    2. Green policy which scared the shit out of a certain % of non typical Labour voters, and made them vote strategically (for Labour) to ensure the Greens had no influence.
    Martin talks about the party/vote splintering, but I wonder hasn’t it being doing this for some time? We’re just getting back on track.

    Unfortunately under Jacinda’s watch, the pragmatic and or swing voter will look back and see nothing but a pile of empty promises, a total lack of delivery, and the claim it is possible to be a politician without lying, being a lie.
    It started with: “this will be the most open and transparent govt ever” and finished with I have nothing left in the tank.
    But I digress.
    Even if Chippie did an Andrew Little, and hired David Copperfield to conjure up another Jacinda, very few outside the hardcore blinkered Labour supporters (20 – 25%??) of the population will vote for them, for the above reason’s primarily.
    To me that’s the big question, what is the true Labour voter base number? I’m sure MB must have a good idea. It’s probably lower, could well be in the lower 20 percentile.
    But they aren’t the important group in an election, they have them irrespective. It’s the 15 – 20% in the middle the Chris’s are bidding for.
    And, if Hipkins pitches too far centre, he loses his far left spectrum to the Greens and now the Te Pāti Māori Party. Compounding his problem, if he doesn’t keep his Māori caucus and voters happy, he will lose both to TPM. (Martins splintering) this is no theoretical assumption. It is happening now before our eyes.
    Same to a lesser degree with the Green and green conscious voter.
    And, on the topic of the extreme left/green policy from TPM and the greens, As someone has already pointed out. It is not a coincidence Labours vote dropped with the announcement of the wealth taxes by both. There must be at least 3-5% of middle NZ who would vote Labour but don’t agree or support this tax. Turkeys dont vote for Christmas…
    It’s easy to blame Chippy or Kiri, but don’t underestimate how much of this vote will be strategically placed elsewhere to ensure labour does not get in.

    National have the same issue, but to a much lesser degree.
    They’ve always had a strong working relationship with Act, and their little “tea party”
    In a way the strengthening of Act works in the Nats favour. It allows a more moderate centre pitch by the Nats, the vote both Labour and the Nats need. They can comfortably leave Act to vacuum up the right side of the spectrum, and can they drop the distasteful little “tea party” charade, now Act stand on their two feet.

    In terms of what remains; Winston is certainly likely to gain his 5%, but only two things will save NZF beyond this next election.
    1. Houdini steps in to help because it ain’t Shane Jones
    2. Keith Richards gives Winston a blood transfusion
    Failing this; for sure their last election with any hope of power, and assuming they do hit 5% their last time in parliament.

    My guess is the two main parties are probably near the bottom of their decline, but there could be another 5% still to go, and this should be very concerning for Labour, as under the multitude of leaders following Helen Clarke there was a steady decline which from memory had them in the high 20’s.
    Jacinda pulled two anomalies out of the hat, the first forming a Govt with Winston. The second being saved by Covid 19. Assuming the trend goes back to post Jacinda, they may well be very lucky to hit the mid 20’s in this election. Unless there are some genuinely competent and capable new people in the wings i can only see darker times ahead.

  20. Either way another 3 years of neo lib bullshit. More wokester rubbish smoke screening real issues. Maybe the cruel reality of NACT indifference to the less privileged will do a power of good for the left. Maybe not.

  21. Meh. Hang onto your knickers and don’t lose your shit lefties. There’s only one poll that counts and this isn’t it. We’re at the beginning of a new 100 year cycle, so it’s choppy on everyone everywhere. Let’s try to get along now. There’s no left or right, nor fringes anymore. We’re all here NOW. TOGETHER at the SAME time! Let’s make THAT count!

  22. As the cost of living crisis deepens, as the climate crisis worsens, as the health system is left underfunded and short staffed. Chris Hipkins’ shitty little sell out on tax reform will come back to haunt him and Labour for a long, long time.

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