BOOM:
New Taxpayers Union Poll is out and it’s a hung Parliament!
Labour: 31.1
National: 33.3
ACT: 13.2
Greens: 8.9
Maori Party: 5.0
NZF: 3.3
This shows the Maori Party strength shown in Roy Morgan and backed up with the Talbot Mills is real.
The increasing racist rhetoric of National and ACT is creating a political backlash and that backlash will see a hung Parliament!
Game on!
As TDB has pointed out all year, this election will be decided by who scares NZ most, a Labour/Green/Maori Party or an ACT/National Government.
What must shock the right wing strategists is that a a staggering 64.5% (+7.1) say the country is going in the wrong direction and yet ACT and National still can’t get a majority!
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Martyn – Hmmmm
But what will the next polls show?
Hipkins continues Jacinda Ardern’s betrayal of the poor: no capital gains tax or wealth tax.
Meanwhile 15,000 people pour into New Zealand every month on work visas to revive the housing shortage and boost property prices.
“I’m confirming today that under a Government I lead there will be no wealth or capital gains tax after the election. End of story.”
Do NOT vote Labour as long as Hipkins is leader.
If you want change, you’ll vote for Greens, Te Pāti Māori, or TOP.
However, TOP has moved to the right under Raf Manji and looks increasingly like a natural partner for National.
And the Greens have been only too willing to capitulate to Labour in exchange for ministerial posts, so can we really expect them to say NO LABOUR-GREENS GOVERNMENT WITHOUT A WEALTH TAX? I think not.
I guess that leaves Te Pāti Maori.
So the protest vote is at 31%, vs. Tory 33% and Labour 31%?
Has there been a better case for a new Third Party since 1989? (Or even two? One lead by Matt Robson, and the other by Hamish MacIntyre?)
And below the surface, there are also an unknown number of people willing to dump Labour or the Tories in a heartbeat — but only if an impressive populist alternative actually existed. (Surely nobody still believes that there is any genuine popularity or loyalty remaining, for any of these current parties.)
In that scenario, there might be no limit to how far the others would fall (despite the inevitable smear campaign, that the corporate press would certainly launch against the new party).
And all this prior to Chippy being gutless and ruling out a CGT so they can be drongo’s like NAT ACT. I guess the brightline and interest deductibility are the only differentiator.
BOOM!
Nope. Vast majority saying the country is going in the wrong direction. It was a 50/50 at the last election. This government will get rinsed at the election and the pollsters wont see it coming.
I agree. The same thing happened before John Key was elected to public office in his first term as PM.
A poll with a 2 in front of it saw Angry Andy resign. Will the boy from the Hutt do the same.
If National get back in, workers will see their wages and conditions go into free fall. They will alse so privatisation of health care, and slashing of welfare.
Problem for a lot of Labour voters is there are far more appalling travesty’s of neglect from Labour than wages and conditions.
Could you please elaborate on said claim re- appalling travesties.
Of course wages and conditions are pesky little issues, akin to the dregs in a glass prematurely taken from the top of the bar by the wait staff.
Except that wages rose under National without inflation cancelling those increases out.
Except there were no wage rises, Bill even said he believed in a low wage economy, so National made it so. Wrong so Far right.
Yes, this would be after all the rises from Labour in wages which have contributed to high inflation, made it near impossible for families on low incomes to get ahead, and made it more difficult for every ordinary kiwi worker to save for their first home.
So you think wages should be held down then?
No, keep wages low so they can get ahead, now there’s an oxymoron, or in Daniel’s case just a moron.
People like Daniel always blame the workers for all the ills in society. I wonder who actually makes the wealth for the wealthy who quote “ are such a hard workers “
Then why is the right track/wrong track so vastly skewed towards wrong track?
It’s not game on – it’s game over
Saaaay whaaaat??! Hehehe!
Both LGM and NACT scare the bejesus out of me and I’m not the only one.
me too……
Me too. Peters and NZ First.
Yep why are there so few choices of NZ policy and two political extremes that seem to have many similarities – different ideologies but same polices, growth, growth, growth, tax, tax, tax, divide, divide and divide, low and no wage migrants (50% dependants/kids/parents applying for visas) to be bought into NZ in record levels while expelling those with skills out of NZ with little interest in retention of them.
People with skills are leaving NZ in droves and often leaving professional jobs that actually have a skill and experience in that skill and don’t need translators for day to day life or have no or little incomes.
We are bringing in students for quickie student courses that end up with yet another high need or middle/lower manager job in takeout/retail/government that seems to be helping fuel the chaos and lack of achievement at great cost.
Apparently Labour just spent 1 million on communicating about kids not going to school, without actually increasing the numbers of kids going to school, same with housing, state house waiting lists getting longer, hospital waiting lists getting longer. More money, but not very efficiently spent. Essentially wasting money and creating more jobs around more managers wasting money.
Annual migration inflow reaches second-highest level on record
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/economy/annual-migration-inflow-reaches-second-highest-level-on-record?utm_source=nzh&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=nzh-home
181,000 new migrants, 103,000 leaving NZ.
So do government track and report the skills and type of people coming and going from NZ?
Nope!
Failing the basics of running a country because they don’t want anyone to know that the neoliberal, global ideology doesn’t work very well for skills!
Same happens to the UK,(700,000+ migrants per year) they have more and more migrants coming and those leaving are the people they want staying. Often the migrants coming, are a burden or dependants that need support (medical, housing, social services, education) that is now shared between more and more people.
That’s why nothing works very well anymore. Success is not bums on seats.
hipkins shits out on GST, say hello to our very own starmer
Yes, disappointing from Hipkins. They ain’t called LINO for nothing.
I agree Hipkins always sells out,he’s a career politician,his only goal,win the election at any cost. Forget the principles upon which the Labour Party was founded.
Who are the current Labour Government? Who are they and what to they stand for?
Yep 3rd time in a row! I particularly loved Ardern doing it before the last election when it was so obvious they were going to walk the election.
Cunliffe was right way back when but these muppets stabbed him in the back. How different NZ might be today if he’d got over the line. More hospitals, more housing, more roads instead of a now rapidly imploding black hole!
Really makes you think.
Why is Deborah Hart- an advocate for outlawing all criticism of ‘israel’ as antisemitism- trying to get rid of the so-called ‘coattail’ rule? Is it solely because she wants an excuse to screw over the Maori party- the only party in Parliament that advocates for an independent foreign policy- if they don’t quite meet a certain threshold, or is that only one of her reasons?
I think I’d prefer a “hanged” parliament to a hung parliament. I’d spare a few – but not many.
64.5% polled thinks NZ is heading in the wrong direction. Woke so popular!
So who will win the election in 2024?
Yes. If National were to win, which is highly unlikely when considering what is to be revealed over the coming weeks, then they will be the first N.Z government to not see out a full term. A one year wonder no less….
Popcorn anyone….
It doesn’t matter any more. Hipkins’s renunciation of wealth tax and CGT, just as Ardern did before him, make it clear that Labour is a morally bankrupt party that should be consigned to history.
Vote Greens, TPM, TOP … even NZ First. But boycott Labour.
One genuine take away from all polls and there can no longer be any doubt, is Luxon is absolutely killing National. Old news maybe, but it just won’t go away, in fact becoming self fulfilling. And they must know it!
If they have any real assured hope, a 2017 Labour like leader deputy exchange is needed. Willis is no Jacinda but she is far more politically aware than the Lux and way less annoying.
Otherwise it looks like voters are none too impressed with the total offerings either way. And in all this apathy looking for a home, NZF are flat lining strongly suggesting Winston is now yesterday’s man.
After 3 years of a majority government the Labour Party has no excuses . Now they have to work out who they want to appease and who they can piss off with their policies over the next few weeks . National did the right think to hold back on policy announcement as Labour is starting to steal them .No wealth tax no CGT that’s good bye Greens and TMP if they stick to their guns .
Good lord what a juvenile thought process you have.
No, National haven’t held back on policy.
They have announced tax cuts for the rich to ‘stimulate’ an already over stimulated economy and put $7 extra into the back pockets of the poor as a token gesture.
Yes that’s bound to do the trick… wish i’d thought of that one….and they are not even in power yet !
However, their biggest one to date, to apparently ‘turn the country around’, is to sling more people into jail. One big flaw…they forgot to do the the math and the costs have already ballooned out by 100% …and they are not even in power yet!
Oh dear…
and that was also supposed to keep unemployment down as well by having less people in the workforce…it’s what’s commonly known as a double- wammy cluster -fuck…and they are not even in power yet!
Oh dear….
Not sure Labour have “stolen” Nationals tax policy or even their “sling more people to jail policy” which renders your comment Trevor, invalid.
You are absolutely correct Trevor but don’t expect any support from Labour’s radicalised fan base that rant on here daily.
Compared to you with your wankfest comments that’s a compliment Bob.
Wow Trevor you have to be joking. National haven’t held back on tough on crime bs policies. They haven’t held back on the Luxon investment fund enhancements , with their brightline and interest deductibility announcements for his seven or so properties.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/07/jenna-lynch-chris-hipkins-cowardly-robin-hood-tax-backdown-what-does-labour-stand-for.html
Along comes….Winston and his merry men.
I have a band of men and all they do is play for me
They come from miles around to hear them play a melody
Beneath the stars my ten guitars will play a song for you
And if you’re with the one you love this is what you do
Oh, dance, dance, dance to my ten guitars
And very soon you know just where you are
Through the eyes of love you see a thousand stars
When you dance, dance, dance, to my ten guitars
Guitars are made for love my band of men will always say
So give each one a pretty girl and they will start to play
Beneath the stars my ten guitars will play a song for you
And if you’re with the one you love this is what to do
Oh, dance, dance, dance to my ten guitars
And very soon you know just where you are
Through the eyes of love you see a thousand stars
When you dance, dance, dance, to my ten guitars
Ooh, let me tell you now
Dance, dance, dance to my ten guitars
Hmm, come on, everybody,
Dance dance dance to my ten guitars
That song goes so deep in memory that my mind plays the music as I read the words. Lovely song, but it couldn’t be sung by Labour as it is primarily heterosexual – ‘give each one a pretty girl’. National’s primary pulchritude-passing-level would mean inspecting her hocks and teeth, and/or wealth accumulation before passing judgment. Axe wouldn’t care too much but probably prefer partners who are double-jointed gymnasts (a bit like Putin?). They may be best too at making people see a thousand stars, perhaps wielding Maxwell’s silver hammer as well as the ceremonial axe!
At this point if Shane was to whip out his guitar in parliament and sit around singing this with the rest of NZF throw in a few other oldies like Knock 3 times and Cheryl Moana Maree, I’d call it good and a better govt than the current one!
After the utter debacle of Jacinda Adern (that Chippie has to pretend is still good policy), this election was always National/ACT’s to lose. Still if anyone can fuck up a sure victory, it’s politicians. I’m not convinced that New Zealand can survive another 3 years of ruinous economic policy. Still, maybe the WEF’s planned “Great Reset” is inevitable (hilariously people still think this is an alt-right “conspiracy” despite being on the WEF’s own fucking website)!
https://www.weforum.org/focus/the-great-reset
https://www.weforum.org/videos/series/the-great-reset-863c8ea2d4
At least we will get payrises, a social safety net, abortion on demand, free health care, LGBTQ rights, and low rents/mortages under the great reset.
All you “freedom” lot will give us is coal. But at least we will be able to hassle the trannies online.
Interesting assessment. I think I’ll go for the information being output by the government’s own pollster and the Herald’s “poll of polls”, which this far out forecasts a centre-right coalition.
I think things are only moving in the ‘right direction’ from here on out, especially when you consider that between now and election day, the economic news is set to get worse and the government’s failure in k̶e̶y̶ all areas becomes increasingly apparent.
The consistent output, as you put it, is that TPM will be king maker which forecasts a centre-left coalition.
Fortunately most of us are aware of the damage and destruction of Nacts 9 years of separatism and low wage economy, that much was apparent.
The failure of this Labour Government is already apparent,with much more to come.
Look it was so apparent their leader abandoned ship.
Yep Key jumped ship, well said Bob.
Isn’t “Decided party vote” the more misleading metric?
Margin of error shuffling from last Curia poll but-
Two important things here:
1) Hipkins popularity in the tank:
Incumbent PM should be miles ahead of unproven challenger Luxon, isn’t, is plummeting
2) wrong direction vs right direction of country is huge.
Pundits are in for an exciting night if they reckon a government is going to get re elected when 65 percent of decided voters think they stink.
It’s likely people are thinking fuck the polling companies, just like the census , why should they tell anyone who they will vote for when our actual ability to influence the government is a joke – we’ve been locked down mandated, had co governance forced on us, gender ideology in primary schools, we can’t even comment on news stories anymore without censorship, the media is bought.
So don’t expect anyone to line up and tell you nicely who they are voting for.
The mood is get fucked and that is highly likely to apply to the government.
Fucking brilliant! Mandated, co governance, gender identity. It’s like you just arrived back from your parliament anarchy protest KeepQanoncarryon.
Very well said Keepcalmcarryon,we need to return to democracy,universal suffrage,before this Labour Government takes it away.
Many who comment here put no value on the rights of the individual instead they want Government to control everything, they need someone to tell them what to do.
Your comments here offer no value Bob , that much is true.
No, National haven’t held back on policy.
They have announced tax cuts for the rich to ‘stimulate’ an already over stimulated economy and put $7 extra into the back pockets of the poor as a token gesture.
Yes that’s bound to do the trick… wish i’d thought of that one….and they are not even in power yet !
However, their biggest one to date, to apparently ‘turn the country around’, is to sling more people into jail. One big flaw…they forgot to do the the math and the costs have already ballooned out by 100% …and they are not even in power yet!
Oh dear…
and that was also supposed to keep unemployment down as well by having less people in the workforce…it’s what’s commonly known as a double- wammy cluster -fuck…and they are not even in power yet!
Oh dear….
I feel that Chris Luxon’s definitely earned this result as have a great number of National MP’s. It’s a really good effort all around, though. My only concern is nothing to do with the poll or the leaders but rather the defection of some of the Labour MP’s lately. It doesn’t show a lack of commitment, I feel, but rather a tired third term government.
“I feel that Chris Luxon’s definitely earned this result as have a great number of National MP’s. It’s a really good effort all around, though.”
Really. What have Luxon and his MP’s done, seriously?
The only thing that National’s Tama Potaka for Ham West has done is spent most of Nationals 2.5 million wealthy donations war chest on full page ads on Stuff.
But when you say “earned” I guess that’s what 2.5mill in donations earns you. More wall to wall footage which to the casual observer makes it look like their doing something. Remember one thing, Nationals tax cuts will contribute $2 a week to the lowest income earners, not really a “really good effort all around” is it.
Inflation leaves the poorest of New Zealanders hardest hit.Inflation greatly contributed to by dreadful Labour Government policy or lack of policy.
To make life better for all New Zealanders we need to build a healthy robust economy and that is way beyond the skill set of the current Labour Government.
Inflation means payrises, and more social spending. When inflation was running low, wages were effectively frozen, and health was drastically underfunded. A bit of inflation is needed to ensure benefits can flow through to the lower paid workers and the poor.
Politics NZ is way above your intellect Bob, can I suggest you stick to Teletubbies, it’s more your age range.
It isn’t policy that is a really good effort. It is the teamwork in the campaigning and lead up to the campaigning that I was referring to. Aside from a small number of labour defectors. This is impressive. I recall Helen Clark having a much messier caucus at the end of her third term. As I’ve said all along, it’s going to be close.