Let’s be clear, if you think things are and under Labour, it will get far worse under a National/ACT Government!
I don’t believe for one second that the vast majority of Kiwis have any true comprehension of just how radical a National/ACT Government would truly be.
If it’s a National/ACT Government, it will be Seymour calling the shots.
The quick yellow fox will jump all over the lazy blue log and David Seymour will get all his crazy policy passed without Luxon caring.
- Māori going to the Waitangi Tribunal over cancellation of 3 waters: The moment the National/ACT Government scrap 3 Waters, Māoridom will go straight back to the Waitangi Tribunal, win the Court Case and force Luxon into his own Helen Clark moment and be forced to pass law to simply confiscate the water. This will cause an enormous eruption of violent protest.
- Mass immigration: National will simply implement John Key’s pump and dump policy of open door immigration to inflate growth rates while causing enormous stress on the groaning underfunded infrastructure and send rents soaring. This will cause enormous social dislocation and a rise in race relation tensions.
- Expansion of Oranga Tamariki Big Data Experiment: National created the Oranga Tamariki Frankenstein and wants more welfare decided by algorithm as a means to de-invest welfare. Luxon has already championed this model.
- Mass Dairy intensification: It’s all National have as an economic policy.
- Mass Property Speculation: They will remove any of the bare tinkering Labour did and help the speculators spin prices higher.
- Mutilation of the State: ACT are serious about wanting to amputate the Ministry for Women, Youth, Māori, Pacific People and Ethnic Communities while slashing the Human Rights Commission. The resulting Public Service strikes will gridlock Wellington. If there’s one thing the Public Service can do well, it is protesting for their own interests.
- War on Crime: Expect the paramilitary police expansion to occur quickly with a whole dump of new civil liberty breaching powers to supposedly keep us safe but will almost immediately be abused as they increasingly get used on the protesting Left.
- Prison riot and explosion in numbers: The war on crime will see far more in prison and National prefers puritan counter productive prisons so expect them to be crammed full and explode in a seething chain reaction of prison riots once National grant Corrections new powers to beat prisoners with. Corrections are very corrupt and once they gain new powers to bash prisoners with, they’ll be some prisoner who gets beaten within an inch of his life which that will trigger prison riots.
- Rise of more Mass Surveillance & Political violence: The protests such a radical agenda creates will demand the State turn its attention back on the Left while National supporters clutch their pearls appalled at the aggression the Left are protesting with and rally around Luxon rather than criticise the policy. They will call on Luxon to spy on the radical lefties.
- Higher Government Debt: Luxon is no free marketeer, he believes he has 7 properties because Jesus loves him, if debt goes up to pay for the extra prisons, extra Police, extra dairy intensification, extra welfare experiments, extra fake growth, then so be it, he doesn’t care. Oh David Seymour will hate it, but he’ll be so fat and full on his amputation of 6 State agencies that he’ll only be able to mount a burp as a protest.
We have lived through a political period of time since MMP that has managed to dilute and temper the idealogical extremes of Left/Right politics in NZ. The need to compromise and pull punches is fundamental to the MMP dynamic HOWEVER that completely gets thrown out the window if there is no political centre left.
The political centre has been hollowed out so much under MMP that Labour and National are almost indistinguishable in their acquiescence to neoliberal mantra.
The far left and far right have enormous pent up political tension that will rupture once Labour or National are dependent on their numbers for a majority.
ACT’s rise is fuelling a toxic polarisation of politics and ultimately poses an existential threat to the National Party.
Line up Labour policy to Green policy and it’s 90% the same.
Labour and National vote together 70% of the time.
National and ACT policy are a billion light years away from each other.
ACT are no longer a snide political protest gesture from those whose rage leaves them impotent any longer they are a bonafide Right Wing Values Party and its double digit polling shows an electorate incandescent with vengeance and ready to lay a terrible reckoning upon us with a policy platform that is to the right of Caligula.
ACT won political ammunition from the woke cancel culture tactics of middle class identity activists who idiotically attempted to strangle free speech.
In doing so to calm the hysteria of the snowflake triggered, the woke signed the Left up to a culture war there was no fucking way we could win because free speech is sacrosanct you millennial clowns and the political backlash your attempts to censor it for identity dogma is as alienating as a cup of cold sick.
Because social media is so ubiquitous in our lives, all our timelines are a never ending algorithmically driven addiction of outrage olympics all holding their wounds up as legitimacy in a cacophony of intersectionist competition for social hierarchy.
ACT have benefited from this and because National stand for nothing more than Corporate Farmers, Bankers, Chinese Business interests, Corporate Farmers, Socially Conservative Christians, property speculators and corporate farmers, the rest of the right wing have walked away from the Grand old Tent that Don Brash and John Key held in place, and are now an existential threat to National in the immediate term, the medium term and the long term.
In fact, if National doesn’t do something very shortly, they will be dead in a decade.
Part of this is a demographic issue, there are more Gen Xers and Millennials than Boomers as a numerical voting block and National voters are getting older and older.
Part of this is a gentrification of Auckland suburbs away from Grumpy Christianity.
Part of it is rural farmers feeling ripped off by the big boys in the industry, part of it is their weird fetish with guns, part of it is the fury many Aucklanders feel at being sacrificed for the good of the country during the last lockdown.
Part of this is the culture wars the woke activists have chained us to.
Part of this is a leader like David Seymour who is magnificent on the campaign trail, so much so, he will eclipse Luxon.
A lot of it is males who voted Labour in 2020, but have been angered by the Green Party war on cis white males and have literally no idea how extreme ACT Party policy actually is.
We will know if ACT really are flexing in Tamaki where Brooke has every chance of beating local God Botherer and National Party stooge whatshisface. Internals suggest they are neck and neck in the electorate which should wake National out of their complacency.
This all adds up to an existential threat to National.
Losing the white working poor farming vote and the suburban soccer dad is an incredible double blow for National.
Internal polling suggests 1 in 5 rural voters are considering voting ACT and one in 3 Auckland voters are considering voting ACT.
Those are numbers that rob National of authority and leaves it a hollowed out movement.
If voters on the Right sense Luxon can’t do it, there will be a late protest surge to ACT that will swell them beyond 15%, cannibalising enough National vote to rob them of a possible majority.
If National fail, Luxon will be removed and the internal fight over what National is will begin again, while ACT will start operating as the de facto opposition, (which they pretty much do already).
While National staggers to define itself in any post election loss, ACT will ruthlessly exploit their weakness and look to actually over take the National vote in 2026, which will strip National out of the main cities and leave them a South Island Party pretending to be from Masterton.
By 2029 National would be relegated to the highlands of the South Island where the cream rises and become a weaponised Grey Power without the teeth.
The Chinese Business Interests that backed National will be disappointed with their return on investment while the Billionaire class will pile into ACT’s class war agenda with the gleeful abandon of billionaires in submarines.
Even if National and ACT win a majority and form a Government, Seymour is so much smarter than Luxon, he will get all of ACTs agenda through, and then some!
In power ACT would take even more energy off National.
National’s only counter strike that will preserve the status quo and at least buy some time to consider their next move is to give Shane Jones an Epsom cup of tea in Northland.
Dilute ACT by including a shot of Winston.
ACT are calling National out and are clear they intend to negotiate hard with Luxon because they are believers.
Fanatics to be more precise.
Luxon flips and flops on a good day. The pressure of a campaign is a unique moment and while there are a thousand reasons to hate Labour, they are still competitive and that’s astounding.
Because a National/ACT Government is so extreme, the middle have decided to vote Labour regardless of how many times Michael Wood didn’t do what he should have done!
Sure, Michael got 13 strikes and Kiri Allan yells at unaccountable unelected bureaucrats, but let’s not pretend ACT and National won’t inadvertently start a race war with a referendum that will enforce a new Treaty on Māori eh?
Yes, Michael silly and frustrating, but a hard Right Government forcing a new Treaty on Māori while cutting the Ministry’s of Youth, Ethnic Affairs, Māori, Women, Pacifica AND the Human Rights Commission???
So.
If National and ACT get in, ACT dominate Luxon and take votes off National and over take them in 2026.
If National and ACT don’t get in, ACT attack National openly and over take them in 2026.
Shane Jones might need a cuppa soon.
A competent National/ACT Government is far more terrifying and dangerous than an incompetent Labour/Green Government.
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don’t believe for one second that the vast majority of Kiwis have any true comprehension of just how radical a National/ACT Government would truly be.
But of course only a few, those who were paying attention, and not voting on personality and induced fear knew how, socially, radically and financially destructive the Labour government was going to be.
Most of these new A.C.T. voters are really Trump voters (who are often swing voters), but there is no local Trump to vote for.
Both the Tories and A.C.T. represent the same type of corporate donor interests. They are both desperate to make sure that the local Trump figure never emerges (or a Bernie/Corbyn-type one), because then the bi-partisan consensus of Reaganomics-plus-globalism could collapse completely. They are being propped up by the censorious monopoly press barons — who don’t even have any local Breitbart-style competitors to deal with — and hence ultra-parochial, low-information voters are in high supply.
The potential collapse of the Tories (and the very real collapse of such parties in Italy and France) isn’t really a generational phenomenon, it is an economic one. Living standards are now so bad that small farmers and working class swing voters will never be fooled again by a George W. Bush style candidate. The small businessmen are leaving as well. Most of these people are non-ideological, and are therefore potential voters for a Bernie-type candidate also.
Most of the problem moves you list I would see as a plus
3 Waters not required in its present state .Infrastructure needs fixing up not at the expense of state control
mass migration we need more people to get to the economy of scale .Here again infrastructure needs to be boosted
Cut the growing public service especially of consultant report writers
Tough on crime .Great news for the small business owners and law abiding citizens.
Prison should be there for those who break the rules .The time there should include education and training to break the cycle of offenders coming back
Mass serveillence .No problem with that .Works in Singapore to stop crime .
Do not know enough to talk about debt and the case for OT change
We need National /Act to stop the slide in standards across the board
Martyn – Everything you listed that National – ACT would do, Labour is doing…so what is the difference?
Is there a None Of The Above option?
You forgot to mention the death camps.
In Xin Jiang? *crickets chirping*
Oh good! Something to look forward too. But I guess it won’t be much different to what we have now?
I think the party pooper Winston might just mess things up for them all.
Why do people vote for neoliberalism when it’s delivered us the current state of affairs?
Even more weirdly……why do people think voting for an even more extreme form of it will make things better?
The easy answer is by voting for extreme neoliberalism will push people above and beyond their ability to live with it. Therefore mass violence and hopefully a civil war will hopefully get rid of the old system and wipe out and expel the elites from this country therefore ending the 40-year neoliberal political experiment and hopefully forming a fairer government for all.
Act and National want to lock up 17-year-olds but they don’t want to give 16-year-olds the right to vote what hypocrites.
The left want to give 16 year olds the vote but don’t think 17 year olds are adult enough to take responsibility for their actions. You can’t have it both ways.
Btw I think 17 year olds are too young to be held as an adult but that’s why I don’t think 16 year olds shoukd be allowed to vote.
Act and National want to lock up 17-year-olds but they don’t want to give 16-year-olds the right to vote what hypocrites.
Act and National want to lock up 17-year-olds but they don’t want to give 16-year-olds the right to vote what hypocrites.
God forbid a competent government!
Or a comment from you Xray.
The rise of ACT is largely Labour’s own fault. ACT hitting 20% might be the message Labour needs to get it’s ACT together.
Marco + Battler you are correct except Labour have no act,they are career politicians who aspire to be in power only.We have 6 years of proof.
Worst Government in our history.
100% Bob. Even Ivan the Terrible would be a worthy replacement.
And you Bob the worst poster in our history.
Now now BB you love me,otherwise you wouldn’t read my every post.
Thanks for your devotion old bean.
Yes I love the bullshit you right, it gives me relevance and thanks for loving me right back, my avid fan.
Labour needs to be punished, Greens put in the naughty corner, permanently. No one with a conscience could vote for the abolisher of the Commissioner for Children, politicians who celebrated women’s rights being crushed by transgender extremists, the shocking genderID scenarios being implemented in schools, secret agendas, nonchalance about the cost of feeding decent food to a family, the crappy shackled MSM. Vote Winston Peters and New Zealand First to bring basic commonsense and some sort of sanity back into the political arena. Peters is a freedom of speech person too, and that’s an essential bottom line for democracy, even if an anathema to Labour.
If you vote Winston Peters its akin to voting for Winston Churchill, Snow White you continuously go on about the children’s commissioner, the transgender extremists etc etc. Voting Peters and co. will condemn our children and grandchildren to a fate worse than no commissioner. Our children will be subjected to old fashioned neoliberal ideals, all with backward thinking from yesterday’s men. They don’t care about our children’s climate, they don’t care if they lock the brown children up, they don’t care if they try and wipe the treaty of Waitangi off the statute books . In their policies the rich will be enabled to “inherit the earth”. So be careful what you wish for.
The game is up for Labour. They were headed for a one-term defeat because of their incompetence but for the weird Covid phenomenon that saved their 2020 bacon. But toward the second half of 2021, it was clear we had made a terrible mistake with those of us in Auckland and as a side effect, Northland, cut off from the outside world paying a heavy price.
Their one chance at redemption after the failed Ardern era was Chippie. He seemed to know what was ailing voters with Labour, 3 Waters, fanatical Waka Kotahi, the 30 billion light rail farce, plus sundry other shit policies. But he failed to address the vast majority of them and then achieved the impossible and doubled down on making 3 Waters worse. Then he showed that he was as clueless as Ardern because he ignored or was oblivious to the law and order problem (hidden away in Wellington) and appointed a previously failed police minister and when he had to be sacked, appointed someone as bad as Poto as a “who wants to play police minister” type appointment.
So there is no plan B, their caucus remains especially talentless as a default setting, and no hope Labour can improve. And anyone half awake does not want to repeat the last failed 6 years. Bonito Mussolini would be downright attractive in comparison to another 5 minutes of this government. And ACT just look as cute as kittens right now!
the eu deal is NOT a free trade agreement it’s a reduced/no tariffs deal in certain catagoiries most of our produce is NOT up to eu standards…..get used to it
and natrs/act have no policies only failed buzzwords
Sadly, your right Bob the First.
Labour will never get there ACT together, because leadership, talent, aspiration, competence.. are words they don’t understand anymore… And remarkable as it may seem, some swing voter peeps see ACT as having and displaying those 4 attributes.
This is just pure fear-mongering. Face it things are crap because Labour is crap. Will they change? Have you seen any evidence this is likely? Of course not, they are completely useless and judging by the number of ministers exiting in disgrace, corrupt as well.
We have a revolution happening now. That’s what’s breeding a counter revolution.
I believe the correct quote is ” they have sown the wind and they shall reap the whirlwind “
So, if Labour have gone that far right that they are hard to distinguish from National, why’s nobody raising the spectre of a Grand Coalition then? We haven’t had one of them yet.
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