GUEST BLOG: Ben Morgan – Ukraine ready ‘to take back what is ours’

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In the first war of the Information Age, it is only fitting that Ukraine’s Chief of Army used a well-edited and inspiring social media video today to announce that Ukraine was ready ‘to take back what is ours.’ Even the tagline is well-crafted! This video is a clear statement of intent and fits into the wider picture of Ukraine ‘shaping’ Russian forces; or weakening their enemy before they strike. 

Last week, the pre-offensive shaping battle saw Ukraine turn Putin’s own hybrid tactics against him when on 23 May, a group of anti-Putin Russian soldiers crossed the border near Belgorod and spent a couple of days wreaking havoc in a couple of small villages near the border.   In and of itself this raid is nothing militarily, the area captured is small and tactically unimportant and eventually the raid was easily repelled. It is also not a new occurrence the same group have launched small cross border raids before, most recently two months ago in Bryansk oblast (region).  

However, this raid is different because it more directly links to Ukraine’s larger strategy to shape Russian forces for their coming offensive.  It is part of the wider pattern of activity that this column has been describing for a couple of weeks; and recently Ukrainian shaping operations appear to have shifted from weakening Russian forces physically with long range missile attacks or winning the propaganda war, to a new area of focus. The new focus appears to be imposing ‘simultaneity’ upon Russia’s command structure.  The term ‘simultaneity’ is used in Manoeuvre War theory to describe a situation in which an opponent’s decision-making processes are overwhelmed.  Generally, simultaneity is created by using tactics like attacking in multiple places so the enemy is left guessing where the real blow fall, or by exhausting a command team by making them respond to many small attacks over a long period of time, or by using deception to create surprise.  Essentially, overwhelming the enemy’s ability to make quality decisions by providing too much information with too little time to consider it before reacting. 

Earlier, in the shaping campaign we saw Ukrainian activities designed to wear down Russia’s frontline soldiers. In recent weeks, Ukrainian long-range missile strikes have targeted Russia’s depth, the area behind the frontline.  Command centres, fuel dumps, ammunition dumps and barracks have all been hit slowly but surely isolating the frontline soldier.  The Ukrainians physically demonstrating to the Russian soldier on the frontline that nowhere in Ukraine is safe because their supporting units far behind the frontline are being destroyed.  So that on the frontline, soldiers are not getting the support they need eating away at their confidence and undermining trust in their superiors.  A poorly fed soldier, short of ammunition can still fight effectively if they are well led and feel that they are fighting for a good cause.   The question is whether Russian junior leadership is effective and can counter this tactic because if they are not their soldier’s moral and motivation decreases. 

It is a clever psychological tactic.  By attacking their enemy’s logistics Ukraine aims to undermine their will to fight, shaping the coming ‘close’ battle. The aim being that when the Ukrainian tanks cross their line of departure, they meet demoralised Russian soldiers ready to surrender rather than fight. Tired, young men that have not been resupplied recently, do not have the ammunition or fuel they need, cannot get medical support and whose leaders are confused and inept.  

At the command level, we can see that the ongoing fight in and around Bakhmut is clearly providing an opportunity for Ukraine to hamper effective Russian decision-making.  Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of Wagner Group turning the battle into a political feud and filling social media with statements that undermine trust and confidence in the Russian command structure.  Statements that are sure to be circulating on the front lines and contributing to lowering the moral of soldiers who will soon face the Ukrainian attack.  

Further, Prigozhin’s politicisation of the military creates an unhealthy, uncollaborative environment within Russia’s command structure.  His friends and favourites, like General Surovakin on one-side; Defence Minister Shoigu, General Gerasimov and their supporters on the other.  It is impossible to see how such a fractured command team can work together to make quality decisions.  Prigozhin’s threat last week that Wagner Group will withdraw by the start of June, handing the city over to the Russian army demonstrating just how broken the Russian system is.  Imagine being in Gerasimov’s situation, trying to organise replacement forces to take over the still contested city as the Wagner troops holding it withdraw without reference to you; or your planning!  And; at the same time being relentlessly politically attacked in the media.  

It is a very tough situation one in which Gerasimov, the overall commander is trying to juggle an enormous number of tasks including military ones like figuring out where Ukraine plans to attack and how to defeat them. And; political ones like managing Putin and Prigozhin.  Russia’s military command structure is more like an episode of Succession, rather than the workings of a professional military.

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And; it is with knowledge of this situation that Ukraine subtly changed their focus this week.  Bakhmut is already serving as a distraction, bringing a range of political problems into military decision-making, creating difficult dilemmas for Gerasimov and his staff officers to try and manage.  Imagine how difficult it is to organise a relief in place of the Wagner Group forces in Bakhmut. First, where will the soldiers come from?  How do you get them to the city? Finally, you need to coordinate a difficult evolution like a relief in place with a group of semi-professional thugs, who only care about getting out of the city?  

Then this week, far from the current battle a group of anti-Putin Russians crossed the border and created havoc near Belgorod.  The raid created a social media frenzy and spurred a mass evacuation of civilians from the area.  The ease of the crossing makes it obvious that the border is lightly defended, and that Russia’s commanders had thought that the area was safe. That Ukraine would not risk the ire of its NATO allies by crossing the border.  Unfortunately, Ukraine has obviously studied Russia’s ideas about hybrid war known as ‘Gerasimov doctrine’ after its key proponent; and found a way to cross the border without upsetting their allies.  Ukraine, recruited a third party to use as a proxy providing a level of ‘implausible’ deniability.  The third party being a group of loosely affiliated Russian anti-Putin groups; the Russian Freedom Legion and Russian Volunteer Corps.  

The raid was a propaganda success because although footage of the raid did not make it onto Russian state media news, we can be certain that it circulated widely on Telegram.  That Russian soldiers looking north in Zaporizhia waiting for the Ukrainian offensive will be watching it and wondering – Why are we here? Shouldn’t we be at home defending Russia?  Civilians across Russia will be looking at the video and questioning whether their faith in Putin as a protector is justified.  And; in the Kremlin people looking for an opportunity will be watching it and seeing weakness that could be exploited. 

However, regarding the coming battle the impact is much more than just propaganda.  By providing base areas, weapons and training to these small groups Ukraine has created a proxy force that can pin down large numbers of Russian soldiers along the previously uncontested stretch of border.  This attack doubles the length of frontline that Russia’s military needs to secure.  And; this forces an already over-extended Russian command structure to have to make more difficult decisions because the simple fact is that every soldier, or tank taken out of Zaporizhia is one less soldier, or tank able to stop the Ukrainian offensive.  

By putting ourselves into Gerasimov’s shoes we can see the effectiveness of Ukraine’s shaping operations over the previous months. The physical shaping such as attacking logistics hubs and probing attacks are easier for a professional soldier to deal with, they are trained to anticipate this sort of activity.  Bakhmut however is a different kind of shaping operation and is a demonstration of hybrid war. This battle evolved from winning a psychological victory by holding a small, relatively insignificant city into an example of blending political, propaganda and physical effects to shape the enemy. The evolution saw the operation’s main effort switch from defending the city; to one that I argue, is designed to target Russia’s command structure by reinforcing existing political divisions.  Essentially, Ukraine realise Prigozhin is a weak link and has fought the battle specifically to create the conditions for him to undermine trust and confidence in the conventional military chain of command. 

Hence, the recent counter attacks in the area to keep the battle going forcing Gerasimov to pay attention to it and to manage Prigozhin.  Attention that would be better employed elsewhere planning and figuring out how to defeat Ukraine’s offensive.  Then the next layer of hybrid pressure was added with the Belgorod operation. Again, an operation that blends political, propaganda and physical effects to shape the enemy.  This time forcing Gerasimov into a series of resource and planning dilemmas as he tries to figure out a way to secure another 900 km of frontline from possible attack. 

In summary, it seems likely that Gerasimov and his staff are close to simultaneity, that they have so many different problems to manage that they are overwhelmed and that their decision-making will deteriorate and become ineffective.  If command breaks down completely, Russia will not be able to move reserves to counter the Ukrainian attack contributing significantly to the likelihood of a large victory.  Next week could see the culmination of Ukraine’s shaping operations taking us a step closer to the transition to offensive operations. 



 

 

Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer and TDBs military blogger

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132 COMMENTS

      • What he describes does seem to fit the situation that we see playing out in front of us. War is a long game. The Russians called this war a military operation that would last a few days.

        There are no winners in this war, only losers.

        Russia is becoming more volatile every day that this war continues. Hopefully the diplomats are beavering away in the background and bring this war to an end, for the sake of Russians and Ukrainians alike.

          • With drones the value of traditional warfare is becoming obsolete.
            The 3:1 ratio is applicable to traditional warfare. Disrupting and protecting supply lines will always be essential to warfare of any kind.
            Sue for peace.

          • Funny you should mention that. Erdogan just won the election in Turkey against a US backed opponent , the Bosphorus stays open.

        • Oh, there are winners!
          Famous quote: “Who won the Iran/Iraq war? Saudi Arabia, because they weren’t involved in it.”

          The potential winners here are all of NATO and China.
          NATO because this war has sapped Russia’s military power and shown it to be incompetent and corrupt. Also, NATOs military planners will have learned an awful lot about modern warfare using Ukraine as a petri dish.
          China because a broken Russia gives China the opportunity to walk in and take Eastern Siberia almost unopposed.

          • The “almost unopposed” Andrew speaks of,,,, is the thousands of Nuclear weapons Russia has.

            Seems like a MAD amount of opposition to me.

            Seems like Andrew is totally stupid too.

          • Nato wins until next time round, just like ww1. Europe loses as its economy takes a big hit. The best solution is now no longer an option – ie accept that Russian concerns were valid. Russia will rearm and come back and they will cause trouble elsewhere – eg kosovo is starting to bubble again.

          • You are correct.
            It will be interesting to see how this military operation will affect the psyche of disaffected Russians. I think one will see more unrest inside the Russian “empire” once the victims of the war settles back into society.

          • Russia isn’t isolated there’s scores of nations about a hundred and twenty still trading with Russia. There’s like maybe 50 against Russia. Russia should be welcoming foreign investment.

        • Blimey Johan. With diplomats such as Lavrov or the head of the Russian UN delegation, Russia’s diplomats hardly inspire confidence!

  2. It seems to me that further cross border raids into Russia itself makes sense to keep the Russians guessing and to further weaken the Russian frontline (in Ukraine) as soldiers have to be withdrawn to protect what is in effect a wider front.
    Ukraine should also take the opportunity during these cross border raids to illustrate how an invading force can in fact not harm the resident civilian population and by doing so even further reinforce their own moral legitimacy over the Russians.

    • Freedom fighters generally target authorities and “collaborators” not the people.
      Unfortunately circumstances often cause serious discomfort for ordinary people as it is often difficult to distinguish between ordinary people and collaborators.
      Terrorists on the other hand….. To create terror you have to target the people and infrastructure.

    • One side will call them terrorists and the other side will call them freedom fighters.

      Some will say Putin falls into the same category, I will say there is a different category for him. Targeting the people and civilian infrastructure makes you evil.

  4. lol, hilarious. As Russia continues to liberate more of the Donbass, all NATO-loving losers like Ben can do is cope.

    • Not hilarious.
      People are dying.

      Do not be surprised if we see more terrorists activities inside Russia. Terrorist activity inside Russia is escalating. The military operation was a failure!

    • Mohammed Khan, Ben is coping very well! Russia not so much and they are not continuing to occupy additional areas of the Donbass. Just lately they have been largely static and in May Russia have had a net loss of ground in the Donbass. You may LOL all you like (a sick reaction by the way) if the counter offensive by Ukraine fails and Russia indeed advance again in the Donbass but no sane person believes other than that the most optimistic outcome for Russia is a stalemate and freezing of the current front lines. I’m of the opinion that the counter offensive will be successful and Ukraine will recover a considerable area of their territory just like they did in the previous counter offensives. That may not be war winning but will be a big step in the right direction. Knowing that Western aid and weaponry is not going to dry up is a nightmare for Russia as is the low moral of their troops. Russia’s poor military performance must be a great disappointment to you Mohammed.

  5. Mr Morgan clearly takes all of info from a small subset of western media.

    The actual reality is the complete opposite (regardless of our thoughts or wishes). Take a look at articles from Simplicius, for example; scours the net for articles far and wide – including western media – and points out the obvious conclusion.

    Russia is destroying Ukraine.

    At the beginning of the conflict I noticed that every article only said good things about Ukraine and how evil Russia was. How Russia was out of ammo, Putin was sick, he was threatened, he fell down some stairs and pooed his pants. How they kill innocent people. They send waves of their soldiers to their deaths in meat waves. On and on.

    Ukraine were winning. They were brave. Fighting for freedom and justice etc

    Propaganda alert.

    If anyone is interested; read Simplicius or watch Alexander Mercouris or Colonel Douglas Macregor on YouTube.

    • Well the Russians are killing innocent people and the Ukrainians are fighting an invading nation. They are the facts regardless of the outcome

    • You can scour the net for lots of information but that doesn’t make it correct. Ben has been accurate with his observations so far so that is worth something in the credibility stakes.

    • Is this the same Colonel who stated, three days after the war began, “The battle in eastern Ukraine is really almost over,” and predicted “If [Ukraine] don’t surrender in the next 24 hours, I suspect Russia will ultimately annihilate them.”
      A few days later, he revised his prediction: “The first five days Russian forces I think frankly were too gentle. They’ve now corrected that. So, I would say another 10 days this should be completely over…”
      In March 2022, Macgregor said a ceasefire was close as Ukrainian forces had been “grounded to bits. There’s no question about that despite what we report on our mainstream media”.
      Hardly a reliable source to quote from I would have thought.

  6. Now for a completely contrary view.

    Ukraine can not win this war because the kill ratio in this war is in its disfavor. Mearheimer estimates that two Ukrainians die for one Russian soldier but says that many of his friends think that the ratio is more like 3:1 or 4:1. Mearsheimers Latest Talk On The War In Ukraine, May 28, 2023

    https://dainikbidyaloy.com/2023/05/28/mearsheimers-latest-talk-on-the-war-in-ukraine/

    Neither side publish an official death toll. Both sides claim an equally favourable “kill ratio” compared to their opponent.

    But that’s not the point.
    The Vietnamese lost 3 million people to America’s 63 thousand killed in the Vietnam war.
    Russia lost 25 million people to Germany’s 4 million killed in in WWII.
    “Kill ratio” (Mearsheimer’s term) is no indication of who will win the war in Ukraine.
    John Mearsheimer is a fool.

    What Ben Morgan calls hybrid or unconventional war is what I call people’s war.
    Regular army massed assaults can be rewarded with great victories, but always entail big losses and come with high risk of failure. In the battle of Dien Bien Phu, the Vietnamese defeated the French defenders. In the Tet offensive the regular Vietnamese NVA were defeated by the American defenders.
    Vietcong guerilla fighters fighting behind enemy lines were much more effective in wearing down the US military war machine. And affecting the Americans will to fight.
    Will the much hyped Ukrainian counter offensive be a conventional frontal assault on the Russian lines, or a ‘hybrid’ people’s war fought conventionally but also behind the lines?
    I think a conventional counter attack will come, but it will be only when the Ukrainians are completely confident that they have overwhelming dominance in military hardware and manpower, in the meantime the hybrid people’s war will continue to harry and degrade and pound the Russian forces.
    The people of Ukraine will never surrender to the Russian invaders, they have suffered and sacrificed too much to give in, every new atrocity committed by the Russians hardens the Ukrainian people’s will to fight back.

    Nixon’s mass genocidal bombing campaign against Vietnam, aimed at destroying the Vietnamese people’s will to fight, were the desperate last throw tactics of a president losing the war.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-ukraine-war-biggest-drone-attack-on-kyiv-claim-ukrainian-officials/#:~:text=Russia%20carried%20out%20overnight%20the,air%20force%20wrote%20on%20Telegram.

    • Indeed. Terrorist operations inside Russia is escalating.
      Anyone who believes that all Russians support this fight is deluded.

    • Only Pat has the balls to call the French and Americans “defenders” in Vietnam, call it for what it was Pat yet another example of Western imperialism

      • Only Pat has the balls to call the French and Americans “defenders” in Vietnam fingrinn

        Probably your most stupid slur so far.

        When I used the word defenders you know very well that I meant it in the tactical sense in relation to the Vietnamese offensives in Dien Bien Phu and Tet.
        That the French invaders were on the defensive in Dien Bien Phu is a fact. That the US imperialists were on the defensive during the Tet Offensive is also a fact.
        Just as it is a fact that the Russian imperialists will be on the defensive during the Ukraine counter offensive.

        Do you really think our readers would be fooled into believing, just because I wrote the French invaders were the defenders during the battle of Dien Bien Phu, that I believe that the French colonialists were not the aggressors and invaders in Vietnam.
        Because I wrote that the US was put on the defensive by the Vietnamese during the Tet Offensive, that I believe that the US imperialists were not the aggressors and invaders in the Vietnam war.

        • Stick to your Vietnam theory’s Pat, in the really real world we have drones, hypersonics and Nuclear powered underwater drones.
          Cool story Bro, needs more Dragons though!
          This is a slog fest and currently Ukraine’s on the ropes.

          • I will stick to my theory. Just like B52s dropping bombs from the stratosphere on Vietnam, cannot hold or take territory. Neither can drones, hypersonics and Nuclear powered underwater drones.
            One side can deploy all the wonder weapons they like, but it is little more than hi tech terrorism, it can’t take or hold ground. The only purpose of such tactics by Nixon was to terrorise the civilian population to sap their will to resist.
            It didn’t work in Vietnam, it won’t work in Ukraine.

    • Putin isn’t giving up the ethnic Russians in East Ukraine, or the tartars further south, maybe give some land to Moldova to retain a more homogenous ethnic Ukrainian state out of what’s left.

        • Exactly. I’m not sure the descendants of those shipped off to Siberia look back upon their history with Russia with such fondness. That’s why I have said before, people underestimate how much many people in Ukraine hate Russia. Not just the army, but every Russian person on the planet for appearing to side with Putin.

          Anyone that thinks Russia is going to “win” is insane.

      • What the hell Sam? What substance are you on? The Crimean Tatars support being part of Ukraine not Russia! How could you get this so wrong!?

  7. Crikey this is the best I have read yet.i think I may be close to really getting it. i
    Belgorad invasion, give them a taste of their own medicine.
    I notice it took place on the 23rd.Was that deliberately ironic..?

    • I am not sure Ukrainians having anything less than a sunny disposition is justification for invasion. I am quite there are loads homophobic, racist whatever in Russia too.

    • Anonymous pro-Russian troll Francesca tries to convince us that Ukraine and Ukrainians are ‘Fascist’.
      The purpose of unjustly smearing a whole people with a hateful label in this way is to justify every vile crime and atrocity committed against the Ukrainian civilian population by the Russian Federation.

      From the url supplied by Francesca.

      links have emerged between the shooter, Brenton Tarrant, and a Ukrainian ultra-nationalist, white supremacist paramilitary organization called the Azov Battalion.

      There is no evidence that Brenton Tarrant ever visited Ukraine. Though a neo-Nazi group that were supporters of Tarrant was uncovered operating in Kiev by Ukraine security services, who raided and shut them down.

      Ukraine raids houses of neo-Nazi followers of Christchurch shooter
      Latika Bourke, Sydney Morning Herald, June 18, 2020
      https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/ukraine-raids-houses-of-neo-nazi-followers-of-christchurch-shooter-20200617-p553p8.html

      Ukraine’s secret service has discovered guns, explosives and ammunition at the headquarters of what it says is a neo-Nazi cell whose members were followers of the Australian man who carried out the Christchurch mosque terrorist attacks last year…..
      ….Tarrant’s manifesto, which he published online shortly before carrying out his attacks, is banned in New Zealand….
      ….Bellingcat links the spread of the document outside the English-speaking world to neo-Nazi group Wotanjugend.
      ….it’s clear that the Kiev-based, Russia-rooted neo-Nazi group has been at the forefront of promoting it online,” Bellingcat reported.
      There is no evidence of Tarrant having visited Ukraine where he is said to have inspired the neo-Nazi cell. Tarrant had travelled to Russia, according to a letter he wrote from prison.
      …..A statement by the SBU said the group was headed by a Russian and shared extremist literature online, at secret meetings and theme parties as well as with up to 3000 people via secret groups on the messaging platform Telegram and social media networks.

      Yes, Ukraine does have a neo-Nazi problem,  but to smear a whole people as fascists to justify Russia’s invasion and slaughter and destruction in Ukraine, that’s a pretty long bow to draw. Especially since the far right got less than 3% support in Ukraine’s elections.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Far-right_politics_in_Ukraine

      Taking historical examples and isolated events from the past to smear a whole people to justify war and occupation is not a new tactic, the Israeli Zionists use the same smear to justify their crimes against the Palestinians.

      https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2015/10/22/the-real-reason-a-palestinian-mufti-allied-with-hitler-its-not-so-shocking/

      …..Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivered an address to the World Zionist Congress in which he made the very controversial claim that the Holocaust was instigated by a leading Palestinian cleric…..
      …..There is, to be sure, a fair amount of historical research into the mufti’s ideological proclivities and his abhorrent views toward Europe’s Jews. He helped the Nazis with wartime propaganda directed toward Muslims and called for the destruction of Jewish settlements in Palestine in radio broadcasts…..
      …..”Islamofascism,” a concept sometimes invoked by Netanyahu, his supporters and American neoconservatives when speaking of the evils of Islamist extremism.

      Netanyahu and Putin’s success in demonising Ukrainians and Palestinians as fascists, acts to dehumanise them, making the slamming of missiles into civilian apartment buildings in Kiev and Gaza seem necessary, even just.

      A number of impassioned liberal Western polemicists have fallen for this sort of hate speech against Ukrainians.
      Many of these impassioned liberal polemicists have spent their lives documenting the crimes off Western Imperialism, some have paid a price for it. I can understand their bitterness to the West. But there is no excuse for them losing their objectivity toward Ukraine.

      In their own words, here are some of the rationalisations given by some notable liberal apologists for the invasion of Ukraine.

      Noam Chomsky:
      https://therealnews.com/noam-chomsky-ukraine-climate-crisis-and-declining-empire

      John Mearsheimer,
      https://www.eui.eu/news-hub?id=john-mearsheimers-lecture-on-the-causes-and-consequences-of-the-ukraine-war

      John Pilger:
      https://consortiumnews.com/2022/09/07/john-pilger-silencing-the-lambs-how-propaganda-works/

      John Pilger in particular has been one of the more vociferous Left voices to defend the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
      In an essay, entitled, ‘How Propaganda Works’, John Pilger writes of a ‘void inside the German people’, a void ‘especially’ among liberal and educated Germans that Nazi propaganda filled. The Nazis answer to British Imperialism was German imperialism.
      Educated liberal polemicists like John Pilger and others who have dedicated their lives to exposing the evils of Western/US imperialism, also have a void inside them. A void that Russian propaganda fills. They cannot see that US imperialism is not the only evil in the world, they believe that Russian imperialism is a lesser evil, that the answer to the scourge of Western imperialism is Eastern imperialism. It isn’t.

      These liberal academics need to get down from their ivory towers and listen to the Ukrainian people suffering at the sharp end of Russian aggression.

      “It’s you that’s fascist not us”

      Unarmed Russian speaking Ukrainian protesters confront armed Russian troops before being dispersed by Russian gunfire.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PgmKygmkqSA&ab_channel=RadioFreeEurope%2FRadioLiberty

      Scenes like this were repeated all over Ukraine. Sometimes as in Bucha the Russian forces resorted to massacre against Ukrainian civilians opposed to their invasion. Confirming in the Ukrainian people’s minds that, “it’s you that’s fascist not us”.

      • Bit of a rambling screed there Pat and I have to say its a typical Western narrow minded view that doesn’t explore the deeper issues and demonstrates why Russia has labeled the West as “agreement incapable”

        You are correct the Neo Nazi right only garnered 3% of the vote however that 3% turned it into over 20% of the new governments positions after the Maidan and what did they do beside taking over major positions like defense and justice? they enacted racial laws discriminating against ethnic Russian speakers, subjected then to discriminating laws and designated their own citizens in the Donbass as “Terrorists” stripping them of pensions, education and state entitlements. Their crime? refusing to recognize the illegitimate Government that came to power by Western color revolution/Coup.

        These are facts, so here’s a question for you Pat.
        At what stage do we recognize a Country is becoming fascist?

        Is it when 3% far right Neo Nazis get the vote or is it when the country is infected to such a stage it spawns Azov. Kraken and other far right units that openly sport Nazi memorabilia and Ukraine being the only country in the World to have known Neo Nazi units embedded in the Military with a well documented history of Nazi worship and indoctrination of their youth into their racist beliefs?

        Russian propaganda! screams Pat so here’s another question for you.
        How do you explain tonight’s report on TVNZ about the war on Ukraine clearly showing a Ukrainian tank with the German iron cross painted on the front which is clearly a Nazi symbol, Whats the odds? Should be 3% right.

        Bellingcat? intellectual laziness there Pat quoting it as a source. Someone once told me that eventually people hit their peak and that’s as far as they go. May is suggest you look outside your echo chamber, test the water? I cannot recommend Simplicious76 enough.

        Finally Bucha that old Western Canard. Why is it nearly one year later Bucha is not mentioned by the MSM? One would think with all the western posturing about Russian “War crimes” one would be making hay while the sun shines? Much fanfare with MSM at the time now “Crickets”
        I seem to recall another one 6 months ago with a mass grave with “hundreds and hundreds of bodies” another war crime apparently. Sorry to say it was Russians who buried all the dead Ukrainians, it appears Russian gave then a good religious burial after Ukraine refused to collect their dead.
        Ghost of Ukraine?
        See the Pattern here Pat?

        • And you Finngrin are spouting theories that are akin to holocaust denial. You claim to be anti-Nazi and yet you are so immersed in Putinist agitprop that you are denying war crimes. You are one of them finngrin! Shame on you!

          • Seriously Ovid that’s another brain dead comment, disappointed your “PHD” didn’t contribute to a higher IQ but yet again there’s always someone who slips between the cracks. Are you on crack Ovid?

            • You have a massive chip on your shoulder Finngrin! You say some stupid, ignorant and sometimes downright mean things. Start reading some history books and demonstrate that you know something about Russia instead of repeating Putinist propaganda slogans.

            • Finngrin, to have to put up with an arrogant, ignorant idiot who assumes that he knows more about Russia and Ukraine than I do is beyond the pale.
              I was born into a Russian family so I automatically know more than you even without the qualifications I hold. I don’t know the reasons behind your pro-Putin stance but I base my opinions on an infinitely broader knowledge of the region than you can ever dream of!

      • Francesca has never claimed all Ukrainians are fascists/nazi’s,,, she’d care more about peace, and the well being of the 70% of Ukrainians who voted to end Poroshenko’s coup regimes long ATO/Civil War ,,,,
        Launched when he/it, with Nato support, attacked Eastern Ukraine,,, who rejected the illegitimate coup Government,,, with it passing discriminatory laws against them,,,,, and it also rehabilitating mass murdering monsters as ‘Hero’s of Ukraine’,,, 9 years ago.

        The shelling and killing of civilians in Ukraine started in may 2014. ,,, targeting Donetsk Airport and the civilian surrounds,,,

        Poroshenkos’s Govt/regime also cut Water, Electricity, Food, Pensions etc,,, targeting civilians,,, https://youtu.be/zr7TzPYiSQg?t=4147 More comprehensive and malicious, than Russia’s ‘destruction of infrastructure’.

        The regular Ukraine army performed poorly at Poroshenkos starting of the present Ukraine war,,,, with motivation to wage a war against fellow Ukrainians Low,, even if they were culturally/ethnically Russian.,,, Because most Ukrainians are not Russian haters like Ukrainian fascists or their neocon backers.

        The Odessa April 2014 mass murder/burning and beating to death of old men, women, peaceful protestors etc,,, committed by Russian hating ultra-nationalists and far right extremists,, Remains UNPUNISHED in Ukraine to this day…
        Burnt alive in Odessa (Warning Graphic Violence ) https://www.bitchute.com/video/rClEjAewFRaR/

        Discrimination in Law?….. “The deputy minister of the Interior—which controls the National Police—is Vadim Troyan, a veteran of Azov and Patriot of Ukraine. In 2014, when Troyan was being considered for police chief of Kiev, Ukrainian Jewish leaders were appalled by his neo-Nazi background. Today, he’s deputy of the department running US-trained law enforcement in the entire nation.” ,,, https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/neo-nazis-far-right-ukraine/
        “The fact that Ukraine’s police is peppered with far-right supporters explains why neo-Nazis operate with impunity on the streets” .

        Anyway Far-Right, ultra-nationalist, and neo-Nazi types came to Poroshenkos rescue after the failure of Ukraines regular army at his starting of Ukraines present war,,, they formed volunteer formations/Militias such as Aidar,, C14,, Dnipro-1 battalion ( accused by Amnesty of “using starvation of civilians as a method of warfare.”),, Right Sector,, Tornado,, etc etc ,, and It was they doing the bulk of fighting and killing for the first 5 years and more of Poroshenko’s and then Zelenskys corrupt Governments Military conflict/war ,,,

        ,,And the most famous/influential of them all,,,,, are the AZOV Fuck-wits,, ,,, who feature in Francesca’s link from 2019,,and are fascist Ethno-Nationalist s,, just like the self admitted one,,, who they admire,,, Brenton Tarrent.

        Pat o Dea has previously disputed the killing and maiming,,,,, or Even the Existence of Children victims from Poroshenko’s ATO war and his fascist fighters,,, directed to Francesca no less ,,,

        ,,, Pat wanted the names of the children killed ,,,or it’s all Russian propaganda according to him ,, https://youtu.be/1Y9bdqZgUko?t=199 ,, Is he fucking serious ???.

        and 2014- 2021 was Bucha before Bucha according to Pat ,,, with Russians targeting/killing ethnic Russians in Donbass ,,, at least that’s what Pat see’s when he watches old Grishanov video from the early days of this war,,,https://rumble.com/v23t8nw-toys-for-poroshenko-war-in-ukraine.html
        ****************

        Pat white-washes and down scales Ukraine’s fascist fighters from Regiments and Battalion size ,, to only a few bad eggs of no consequence ,,,, and never mind their penetration of Ukraine’s security state.

        He’s Helping to cover up their/Ukraines war crimes,,, such as executions of collaborators, deliberately targeting civilians in shelling/bombing etc.

        A “Safari” is the Ukraine extremists term for hunting collaborators ,,, Such a ‘safari hunt’ WAS carried out in Bucha ,,,, but only Russians murdered Russian supporters there,,, according to Ukraine security forces and our western propaganda/media ,,,

        Around here,,, believing due to repeated evidence that Ukrainian fascists can and do murder those they deem collaborators, ,, stating they could certainly have done the same to some of the murdered in Bucha,,, is the equivalent of “Holocaust Denial” ,,,, and Russian propaganda …. What a insult to the Holocaust and it’s Millions of victims this Ukraine/Western propaganda is.

        Finally,, Pat o Dea has a habit of purposely misquoting what people have said ,,,, so he can then tell a pack of lies about them built on his deceit.

        Perhaps the means justify the ends when it comes to Evil ? ‘Putin’s Plan for Ukraine Now’ https://youtu.be/lQzRtyqyIUk?t=34

        ,,,,

        • Total hyperbolic unadulterated rubbish Awakesky. The Orcs actions in Bucha are a war crime and if you don’t acknowledge that then you are no better than David Irving and the rest of the holocaust deniers!

          • actually Ovod with the four user names ,,,, white-washing and ignoring the well documented war crimes of (Ukrainian) Fascists,,,

            Places you in exactly the same camp as David Irving ….and both of you are idiots ,,,,

            or with your 4 user names does that make 5 ?

            • Ovods 5th user name should be ‘Total Bullshitter’ 😉

              March 7 2022 – Early in the war…. Torture and murder of a ‘collaborator’ ,,,, (MMA) athlete Maxim Ryndovskiy

              “#MMA fighter was tortured to death by #Ukraine. now the video of the crime has surfaced. They made an example of him for training in a gym with #Chechens. He was not in the military, he was an athlete. Who wanted to keep sport out of politics. A civilian. His death was brutal.”

              “Ukrainian neo-Nazis torture Jewish anti-war MMA athlete” https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/03/09/umma-m09.html

              “Ryndovskiy apparently became a target for Ukraine’s various far-right political forces after visiting the separatist-controlled Lugansk People’s Republic and Donetsk People’s Republic in eastern Ukraine. He had trained at a MMA gym in Chechnya along with Russian athletes”…
              https://www.bjpenn.com/mma-news/ufc/ukrainian-mma-fighter-maxim-ryndovskiy-reportedly-tortured-and-executed-by-neo-nazi-group-for-training-with-russians/

              So to say “total bullshit” is clearly total bullshit …

              And there is hundreds if not thousands of examples of Ukraine extremist (let alone the extremists known as NATO), bombing and shelling civilians,,, from 2014 on-wards…..

              Certainly there is Thousands of victims.

              Ovod-‘that’s total bullshit,,, Orc’s/Russians can’t be counted as real victims ,,,, and they can piss off to Russia where they belong,, slava ukraine’,,,,,

              ,,,the clown.

              • World Socialist Web Site is hardly a reputable authority. It is hardly Amnesty International or the OSCE! What’s more you have only quoted one case!
                You are definitely full of shit Awakesky and a holocaust denier as well!

            • You are full of crap Awakesky. Your so called atrocities have not been confirmed by any neutral bodies. You are just peddling Putinist propaganda.

            • Ovod with the 4 user names is the one who claimed that the existence of Ukraine Nazi’s,,, and their torture murder of “collaborators”, was “total Bullshit” ,,,, so even one example proves Ovod with the 4 user names wrong and being a bullshitter.

              Here’s a Russian ‘collaborator’ murdered/executed. https://i0.wp.com/cms.sofrep.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Fao0ZEVXwAIypeG.jpg?resize=1024%2C768&ssl=1.

              One of Ovods three other user names (I can’t remember if it was Cantabrian or Gadfly), accused her father of murdering her.

              Presumably because Ovod with the 4 user names is a Ukrainian nazi white-washer,,,, and he’s stated his beliefs that all Russians who support Putin ,,,, are Orc’s.

              No harm in killing non-human Orc’s according to Ovod …. and every fascist with the ‘purge the sub-humans’ mindset preceding him.

              Finally 4face-Ovod denying the torture and death of Maxim Ryndovskiy,,, is all the more like David Irving, ,,, as Maxim Ryndovskiy was a Jewish man murdered by (Ukrainian) fascists.

        • The Vagner Group is a neo-Nazi private army fighting for Russia. It uses Nazi insignia and is named after Hitler’s favourite composer. It is financed by a notorious criminal who is now a billionaire. Explain that Finngrin and Awakesky or will you deny it?
          The Vagner Group is far larger than the Azov battalion.

      • Good post Pat. Pilger is a journalist not an academic. Chomsky is an academic but his specialty is linguistics and he may have strong opinions but politics is not really his forte. Mearsheimer is a political scientist but he is well past his use by date!
        All these guys are well over 70 and senility is setting in!

  9. The whole thing with Prigozhin is bizarre. A whole Army recruited from Russian jails, that sits outside the command structure, but which has direct access to Russian logistics and equipment. With a commander who says whatever he wants on social media, including attacking the command structure. Presumably funded by of the books Kremlin funds.

    By definition, that can’t end well. Armies succeed best under a unified command structure. As for casualties, surely they are higher on the Russian side. They are the ones who have been on the offensive in Bakhmut.

    Notwithstanding the claims on both sides of fighting for decades, I think the upcoming Ukrainian offensive will be the key. It will ether succeed or it won’t. Either way it will lay the foundations of a peace settlement (or at least an armistice). If it succeeds, then Russian will settle for keeping Crimea. If it fails, Russia will keep most of what it has already got.

    • It’s difficult to instill a national spirit into a bunch of mercenaries doing it for money I agree. Historically Mercs were hired to protect the king which I think is more inline with Putin’s goals. I don’t think Ukraine has a mandate to cross over Russia’s border and invade. Or at least I don’t think Ukraine has the Mongol spirit in them.

      The Mongols was known for incorporating technology into there own ranks to because it way easier to replicate back then.

      The Mongols also showed up to a siege with so many resources they could just sit there and wait for everyone to die without firing a shot.

      I don’t think a settlement is possible while Russia has access to warm water ports (China).

      Russia still has Nike and iPhones on sale and a rebranded Russian McDonald’s. There’s a whole another side to this picture we’re not seeing.

  10. Oh… and here’s me thinking [it] was an un holy alliance of NATO members taunting Putin from Ukraine’s borders with Russia while pushing for war because of the insistence of the U$A’s military industrial complex to turn millionaire investors into multi-billionaire investors…
    Doesn’t that make Ukraine look less like an imperilled country being bullied by an aggressive super power and more like a Western gun nut Mafioso’s lap poodle?
    While I have no real idea what the fuck’s going on over there but I do suspect that we’d best not poke the giant sleeping Russian bear lest it wake up and start creating a global fuss.

      • So an opinion that doesnt conform to Cantab/Gadfly/Ovids narrow world view should be silent? GO Ovid, you really have some Ukrainian Nazi mongrol in ya!

        • And you Finngrin are a brainless moron so I don’t need to overcomplicate your tiny brain with valuable information.
          Vlad Vexler on YouTube is required viewing for you but I know you won’t bother.

          • Hypocrisy meet cantab/gadfly/ovid.
            No honesty so you have to post under multiple names to cause disruption. Any you want us to believe you have a PHD?

  11. To my mind the attack on Belgorad says it all.And anti Putin Russians attacked it not Ukranians.
    Attack took place on 23rd, this being a significant date.
    Russia mainland not safe from attacks itself.

  13. So as long as we the rest of the world pays for the hardware the Ukraine is going to die for the US/Nato. Until the last Ukrainian man is dead. Can we call it ‘genocide’? Or would that be rude to the US/Nato in its proxy war against Russia?

  14. March 13 headline Ben Morgan – Russia dying, slowly impaled on a town called Bakhmut

    Says it all really, well done Ben.

      • Instead they’re buying US shale gas at exorbitant prices.
        “democracy is saved”. Or “Europe loses it’s mind.” You decide!

        There’s a sucker born every day. And they suck anything if it’s wrapped in a US flag.

    • Lucky Ben can always count on his Dad to give him a thumbs up.
      Ben and Ukraine…. Like the chubby kid always coming last in the running race. If you frame it right and squint hard it can look like they’re winning!

  16. What? Do you mean.

    The proxy war btw the US, NATO using Ukraine and it’s people as cannon fodder against Russia?

    Who’s winning? Not the US, NATO or the Ukranians.

  18. What a blight on the original spirit of The Daily Blog this column is. World Peace is what is needed, including Ukraine, and some concrete assistance to help that happen, not war mongering on behalf of US Imperialism, or war as spectator sport, from armchair generals that would likely fill their pants if ever put on the front line.

    It is stunningly obvious from a distance that Russia should not have moved into Ukraine, BUT…in Aotearoa NZ we are not landlocked or surrounded by the military might of NATO and and USA. So it is easy to have an opinion here. And it is also easy to recycle US military crappola.

    Does anyone really think Russia blew its own pipeline? There is immense pressure on Russia from US Imperialism and major arms and tech support.

    What NZers can do is pressure all the politicians to urge peace negotiations–no training, no technical assistance, no more sucking up to 5 Eyes–get some talks going.

    Neither Washington, Moscow or Beijing is the principled internationalist position.

    • Tiger, I’m with you in spirit, the support given by TDB for warmongering viewpoints is indeed a blight.

      I disagree with you that Russia should not have moved on Ukraine. When the “empire” moves it’s military alliances into neighbouring states threatening your security, cutting the time for Nukes to transit to your cities, and you warn them for years not to and they don’t listen, WTF would you do? Give us an alternative.
      When the “empire” runs colour revolutions in neighbouring states and creates hostile regimes who bombard Russian residents for years, how would you react? Tell us, what alternative?

      • What a totalitarian view you express Nick.J. I can’t believe you would think that! You and your crony Finngrin sit way outside societal norms. Do you realise this? Such hatred!

      • Look Nick+J, it is hard to cover every angle every time on blogs, if you just write one liners you miss detail, and if you go into too much detail it is often a wasted effort…SO…I do not blame Russia at all for reacting to the encirclement and aggressive US/NATO positioning, and the colour authoritarians, I just think tactically they made a blunder on the ‘how and when’.

        I was a supporter of the USSR as a multi state entity, but not the beauraucratic machine the later leaderships ran after Lenin’s death. It was a shameful sell out post ’91 of the peoples assets (advised in a minor way by Roger Douglas at various seminars), WWII war veterans lost their pensions, bank deposits and more.

        People will wise up to the reality as NATO and the yanks ramp it up.

        • Thanks Tiger, the response wasn’t personal or a criticism. It was really just me putting on the record unpalatable questions for the unthinking jingoistic goons that exist on this thread. Notice none attempted to answer.

          • And NickJ you support Putin’s SMO against Ukraine and yet have the gall to criticise those of us who support Ukraine’s struggles against tyranny, calling us ‘unthinking, jingoistic goons’. Your attitude is utterly contemptible. Your arrogance is unparalleled.

    • No Tiger Mountain you can’t sit on your hands and wish all the evil would go away. It doesn’t work that way.
      Like it or not we are a member of the 50 country alliance supporting Ukraine. You must confront evil and FSB controlled Russia is an evil country.

      • Sorry Son 2/3 of the global south doesn’t agree with you in fact they are going there own way. Guess who controls the majority of the world’s resources? The global south. Geeze and I didn’t even need a PHD to figure that one out. Proof that sometimes a higher education is wasted on some people

        • Really? You demonstrate that you have appalling spelling and grammar – and this is when spellcheck is available!
          The problem you have Finngrin, is with comprehension. How many years did you stay at school?
          You can’t expect to understand a complex subject such as Russian history if your comprehension is bad. Walk before you run.

  19. We’ve been hearing that Russia is on the verge of defeat ever since this war started. There is reality and there is Western propaganda. Guess which this blog is?

  20. The Ukrainian counter offensive could well end the war. If they punch through to the Black Sea with a powerful force the Russian conscripts occupying the trenches will be fleeing with their tails between their legs! Putin’s days are numbered.
    Слава Украіні!

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