The Poll no one believes, The Horizon Poll, says Labour plus Greens will be the Government…
The Labour and Green parties would be able to form a coalition government, according to the latest Horizon Research poll.
The May 12-17 survey of 1,563 adults finds that among those who are both registered and 100% likely to vote, Labour would attract 31.8% of the vote and get 48 seats in Parliament.
The Green Party would attract 8.5% of the definite vote and get 13 seats: a combined 61 seats and a majority in a 120-seat Parliament.
National would attract 23.2% (down from 25.4% in January 2023) and get 36 seats (three less than in a January Horizon survey).
ACT would attract 11.9% and get 18 seats: a combined 54 seats, 7 fewer than a Labour-Green coalition.
The seat results assume an electorate seat is won by Te Pāti Māori, giving it 5 seats for its 3.3% share of the vote.
…the self selecting nature of the Poll makes it a joke that no one takes seriously, but what it does show I think is the demographic challenges National face this election.
National have no political outreach beyond older white rural volk, and ACT are actually hoovering up that urban right wing vote.
There is a real danger that once right wing voters see Luxon can’t win, they will protest vote ACT instead. I think ACT are good for 15% on election day, but National will struggle to remain in the early 30s.
What the Poll does tell us is that the election is far closer than the Right believe it should be.
For the Right, every week brings an existential threat from the Left and they are genuinely bewildered that Labour are still competitive and this points to wider data sets showing National need to be polling in double digits above Labour to win (because National always over polls), the fact they haven’t is all pointing towards a Labour led victory post election.
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