The Poll no one believes says Labour/Green Government

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The Poll no one believes, The Horizon Poll, says Labour plus Greens will be the Government…

Horizon Poll: Labour And Greens Could Form A Government

The Labour and Green parties would be able to form a coalition government, according to the latest Horizon Research poll.

The May 12-17 survey of 1,563 adults finds that among those who are both registered and 100% likely to vote, Labour would attract 31.8% of the vote and get 48 seats in Parliament.

The Green Party would attract 8.5% of the definite vote and get 13 seats: a combined 61 seats and a majority in a 120-seat Parliament.

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National would attract 23.2% (down from 25.4% in January 2023) and get 36 seats (three less than in a January Horizon survey).

ACT would attract 11.9% and get 18 seats: a combined 54 seats, 7 fewer than a Labour-Green coalition.

The seat results assume an electorate seat is won by Te Pāti Māori, giving it 5 seats for its 3.3% share of the vote.

…the self selecting nature of the Poll makes it a joke that no one takes seriously, but what it does show I think is the demographic challenges National face this election.

National have no political outreach beyond older white rural volk, and ACT are actually hoovering up that urban right wing vote.

There is a real danger that once right wing voters see Luxon can’t win, they will protest vote ACT instead. I think ACT are good for 15% on election day, but National will struggle to remain in the early 30s.

What the Poll does tell us is that the election is far closer than the Right believe it should be.

For the Right, every week brings an existential threat from the Left and they are genuinely bewildered that Labour are still competitive and this points to wider data sets showing National need to be polling in double digits above Labour to win (because National always over polls), the fact they haven’t is all pointing towards a Labour led victory post election.

 

 

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69 COMMENTS

    • With the way things are, Winston doesnt need to say anything. He will get the FSu and many of the old Labour votes without active campaigning (Which he is doing fairly successfully just you wont see it reported in the MSM who have black listed him as well as many others).

  1. Seriously who is National going to replace Luxon with? I think Nicola Willis went backwards over this budget period. Surely if they are going to move then they need to do something soon. Or maybe throw a Hail Mary and do it close to the election.

    • They used to until it became the fastest rising category with the numbers into the 100’s of 1000’s so they stopped it. They used to include it in the post election survey as well but again the numbers got to large.
      I think that all happened in the early 2000’s but that would need to be checked.

    • shhhh, we are to be happy about the idea that the current lot with its full majority will be exchanged to a Weimarer Republic type coalition.

    • ” Those who cannot vote for any of them. ”

      Yes the No Politicians party.

      A lot of people out there have had enough of not being fairly represented and can see the how fixed the system has become.

      Nothing ever seems to change except the wealth and protection of the monied class at the expense of so many of us.

    • In the last few elections, those who choose not to vote, for all reasons, was way bigger, over twice, than the number of those who voted for the 3rd biggest party.

      Those who choose not to vote for political reasons only would still be more than those who voted for the 3rd placed party.

      The Govt asks these things after each election and use to publish them very openly but since around 2005 (that date probably needs a check but it was around then) that transparency was removed. When 100’s of 1000’s respond ‘We think the quality of politicians offered is that abysmal we just can’t support any of the dickheads’ the powers that be got very nervous the general drone like voters would start to think why. Can’t have them voters thinking too much or we’d have none.

  2. (……National have no political outreach beyond older white rural volk)

    I guess the rural folk spelling was deliberate as an indication off, that they are racist?

    You are also forgetting the very large urban Chinese, SE Asian, and Indian voters. All for Labour?

    Has any polling company asked how these New Zealanders, born of the land, feel about co governance?

    mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm; thought not.

    • I’m a fourth generation white kiwi and my family have benefited from land and gold that was taken from the Maori. I’m in favor of co-governance in the hope it bring some equality.

      • Give it back then.
        I didn’t benefit from any of that. I’m white and I grew up with Buggar all. I owe my (student loaned) education for where I am, and hard work and a willingness to move around the country and overseas.
        I don’t want my democratic rights trampled so rich white guilters like you can feel better about yourselves.
        Gift your house and lands to the local iwi. My family took nothing from anyone.

        • I wouldn’t hold my breath for that to happen. Talk is cheap after all.
          Does it beg the question though, just how much does ones position in society/privilege/inherited well being stem from institutional bias or communal exploitation or whatever it’s called and how much for ones own decision making?

      • I think youll find Maori never used or valued gold prior to the arrival of Irish gold miners. Just saying.

  3. Will those effected by crime, homelessness , lack of medical help, unable to feed their family disrupted schooling want to vote for the party that has caused all these events back into power for another 3 years of poor govanance

    • Even less likely they would want to vote for the opposition, Trev…… out of the frying pan….

    • I’m with you Trevor,no one of sound mind is going to give this lot another term following 6 years of complete failure.Even their boss abandoned ship.

    • My favourite is that government and woke have rebranded at great cost government departments to te reo, but weirdly the ones they are trying to get through are all in English like the Affordable water reforms aka 5 Waters are not branded in te reo.

      What no te reo leading the charge to get everyone on board!!!!

      Same with corporates. Vodaphone now One, always complaining about their “racist” customers leaving them, but somehow does not rebrand in Te reo.

      Tired of woke, performative outrage, that is driven by getting government funding that somehow does not follow through into actually doing what they say, and instead seems to be about believing that they are superior and are outraged about others perceived flaws.

      It is very fake, cynical and questionable. Either you believe in te reo or you don’t as a government and woke.

    • More transparent than the Coalition of cuts, the so called brighter future party.

    • The lies told to win elections is disgraceful.
      Ardern admitted to Jack Tame “aspirations only.”

  4. I think a lot of people are unhappy with the current political parties.

    NZ has become a Ponzi with more and more crime, fraud, climate disruption and worker dysfunction to get anything done. When things are done they are done expensively, poorly and without transparency. There are extremes everywhere from extreme woke to extreme right wing ideology – who seem to have merged to essentially believe the same ideology of global neoliberalism.

    Most people want middle ground and practical solutions, not constant ideology that hasn’t worked in NZ for 30+ years.

    NZ media is a joke with the same articles with the same (paid for) quasi adverterial solutions that are not working and paid for woke articles that increasingly nobody wants to read.

    Government is spraying money around that doesn’t seem to work, and instead seems to enable it as more go into professional managerial class in NZ, increasing the growing dysfunction in a ponzi like expansion.

    Real innovation, workers with real skills, real academics with real research are being squeezed out of NZ, as the professional managerial class take over the money, and process of money for everything, and create more managerial jobs and ‘innovation’ in the middle with increasingly bizarre, identity criteria – that produces nothing while resources don’t get through to real workers and real products.

    There is push back around the world, but slow to come to NZ.

    Then there is the mass immigration that proceeds neoliberalism to hide the results of individualism vs society that creates widespread dysfunction in a country.

    Britain can’t sustain this level of immigration
    The government must address our reliance on cheap migrant labour and foreign students’ cash
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/britain-cant-sustain-this-level-of-immigration-dlctxljpk

  5. The real danger is that we will have another three years of Labour/Greens.

    Signed former Labour Party member and voter

    • Me too. Confession time – I voted for the mid-wit Ardern in 2017.

      Our institutions are failing, and LINO thinks the solution is Critical Theory, Te Ao Maori, and The Disinformation Project.

  6. Yeah, whore-rise-on poll(s). FFS. You know with this lot you can have 50 accounts! I have! Theyre a survey-er, not a pollster. Their surveys come-poll-halfway through the survey is heavily biased and loaded with leading questions before you choose who you will most likely vote for. Moreso than most pollsters.

    I would say their margin of error is 5%-10%.

  7. I think National and Luxon will make sure that Labour wins. Can’t see them doing it unless a miracle happens. Their strategy is fucked.

  8. I think National and Luxon will make sure that Labour wins. Can’t see them doing it unless a miracle happens. Their strategy is fucked.

  9. The poll no one seems to be aware of reveals a fact no one would want to consider even if they were.
    Any government we get will be a neo-liberal coagulation of creepy money fetishists.
    My prediction:
    We’ll all continue to slid towards a pathetic republic with a limp banana and once that happens we’re done for. Kia Ora will be gone and shalom will be in. Oy vey!

  10. It’s all John Key’s fault. Especially after 6 years of Labour.

  11. “National have no political outreach beyond older white rural volk, “
    Mmmmm. Would there be one small business owner who would not vote for them.

  12. Methodology

    The onlne survey has 1,563 respondents. Results are weighted on, age, personal income, party voted for in 2020, employment status, region and ethnicity. At a 95% confidence level the maximum margin of error on the results overall is +/- 2.5%.

    Horizon asks respondents if they are registered to vote, how likely they are to vote from 0 to 100%, and then reports results by those who are registered at 100% likely to vote.

    Respondents are grouped by region, not electorate, to provide more reliable sample sizes though results are indicative only where 50 or fewer have responded in a region.

    Horizon has no political party client for the poll and conducted the survey as part of its public interest research programme.

  13. We need good people standing as independents in electorates
    When these people hold the balance of power we may see some transformation

  14. Doncha love those people who say they once voted for Labour but never again. By the way I used to vote National but never again.(Have a grain of salt).

    • Considering the destruction National created and Labour still trying to clean up, how would anyone in their right mind vote National. You would have to be simple like Bob.

  15. Yeah National at 23% is waaaaay too good to be true… Here’s my personal prediction at the moment

    Labour: 34% + 30 Electorates
    National: 32% + 33 Electorates
    ACT: 13% + 2 Electorates
    Green: 9% + 2 Electorates
    Maori: 4% + 4 Electorates
    TOP: 2% + 1 Electorates
    NZ First: 3%

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