Bakhmut has fallen claims Yevgeny Prigozhin, and he may be right. A couple of weeks ago we predicted that Bakhmut would hold for as long as Ukraine wants it too; and this change in the situation is very interesting. Especially, because if you closely study the Ukrainian axis’s of attack north and south of Bakhmut these attacks could be either; the start of an encirclement or spoiling attacks to secure the flanks of a withdrawal from the city. It seems likely that in the next few days we will find out more about Ukraine’s plan.
And; Russia is on the wrong side of history politically, morally and militarily. The coming Ukrainian offensive is likely to demonstrate just how far Russia’s military capability has deteriorated in comparison to NATO. ‘Manoeuvre Warfare’ theory, NATO’s doctrine; or how NATO trains to fight has had a big impact on Ukraine. Specifically, this war provides a study of how since the Second World War, NATO armies have re-designed their tactical thinking. This operation may also help answer a current debate in military circles – Does modern technology make a strong defence impossible to defeat?
Manoeuvre Warfare theory is a doctrine for fighting wars developed in NATO armies after World War Two; and started to gain wider acceptance in the 1980s. In layman’s terms Manoeuvre Warfare theory aims to disconnect military planners from mathematical attrition; or “winning by killing the enemy and destroying their stuff” and instead to encourage them to think of winning by “destroying the enemy’s will to fight.” It has theorists like John Boyd, William Lind, Robert Leonard and Richard Simpkin as well as practitioners influenced by these theories that have applied them in battle; like Generals Rupert Smith and Barry McCaffrey.
It is of particular interest in the Ukraine War because this war is a culmination of generations of thinking and testing military theory. The irony being that the Soviet army was studied at length by Manoeuvrist theorists, it was an exemplar. The Soviet defeat of Nazi Germany, included many examples of Manoeuverist tactics. Some NATO strategists, like English brigadier Richard Simpkin, learning Russian and spending their lives analysing Soviet concepts like using large ‘operational manoeuvre groups’ to advance deep into an enemy’s rear areas cutting off supplies and forcing them to withdraw rather than attacking frontally. The use of massed artillery to isolate frontline forces from their logistics hubs; or maskirovka the art of using propaganda and deception to fool an enemy. This research included studying the works of Mikhail Tukhachevsky, a 1930s Soviet general executed by Stalin in 1937 whose doctrine was the basis for Soviet tactics in World War Two.
English and American strategists studied the Soviets; not only because of their success against the Nazi’s but also because during the Cold War, NATO was preparing to fight them. Over generations the NATO’s armies studied and tested this set of theories slowly developing a concept of war that seeks to defeat the enemy’s will to fight by:
- Planning in terms of ‘effects’ rather than ‘activities;’ or to paraphrase Simpkin: Although vastly different activities, a bayonet charge and an artillery barrage may have the same ‘effect’ on an enemy, by driving them off an important piece of ground. Therefore, planning should start by identifying the ‘effect’ or the impact a force wants to achieve on its enemy. Planning and thinking this way, rather than systemically allows for creativity and innovative use of resources.
- Taking a multi-domain approach; or in plain-English understanding that an enemy’s will to fight can be compromised as quickly through propaganda or by overwhelming their ability to make decisions as by inflicting casualties on them.
- Understanding tempo and controlling the pace of battle in order to maximise your effect on the enemy. Specifically, by streamlining planning and communications processes so that your side can decide what to do quicker than the enemy and then choose when a battlefield ‘effect’ (artillery fire, an infantry attack etc) will be applied against them; rather than allowing the enemy to set the pace of battle.
- An emphasis on intelligence; or making sure that you know where the enemy is located and what they plan to do so you can avoid their strengths and take advantage of their weaknesses.
In essence, Manoeuvrist thinking is the basis of NATO’s modern tactical doctrine. A method of war-fighting that has been successful in a range of conflicts since the 1993 Gulf War and that since 2014 Ukraine’s army; mentored by the United States and United Kingdom has adopted. In the opening days of the war, Russia’s swarming Battalion Tactical Groups looked like they were the modern, dispersed and digitally networked successors of Tukhachevsky’s operational manoeuvre groups. Swarming through Ukrainian defences, dispersed during infiltration to avoid destruction of large elements but then concentrating in Ukraine’s depth for decisive battle. But this did not happen, forty or fifty years ago Simpkin expressed concerns in his essays about the Soviet’s ability to deliver on their own Manoeuverist concepts because of their poor training and motivation. It is interesting to ponder the effect of Putin’s era of corruption on Russia’s military, and wonder if the Soviets would be as inept as their Russian successors?
Manoeuvre War theory has its critics and this is a reason that the forthcoming fight in Ukraine will be important for military observers. In 2021, retired United States Marine Corps colonel and now defence academic, T X Hames argued eloquently in an article ‘The Tactical Defence Becomes Dominant Again’ that new technology like the ability to use digital networks to gather and share information backed by precision strike and drones gives significant advantage to the defence. Regarding land warfare he states “The very act of moving will create a signature. While attackers will retain the traditional advantage of selecting the time and place of attack, the advantage of physically massing either offensive or defensive forces is declining as weapons ranges increase dramatically. Mass can be achieved by assembling long-range fires rather than massing forces. This
favors the defender since attackers may well be forced to pass through restrictive chokepoints, while defenders can disperse to the maximum effective range of their weapons.” Essentially, Hames posits that ‘if you can see it, you can hit it;’ and that with modern precision strike weapons able to hit targets a thousand kilometres away it is very difficult if not impossible for even a Manoeuvrist attacker to gain enough of a local advantage to be successful.
In terms of the coming battle, Russia is defending; and simply by concentrating forces for their attack Ukraine provides targets for Russian artillery, missiles and airpower. Combine this technological trend described by Hames with old-fashioned trenches, dragon’s teeth and ditches and we can see that Ukraine has a significant challenge to overcome. And that is why this battle will be interesting – Can Ukraine breach Russia’s defences?
We can see that Ukraine is using Manoeuvrist strategy to build the conditions for their attack; and has been for some time. Ukraine is using multi-domain effects including propaganda, deception and long-range missile and artillery attacks to eat away at Russia’s people and their soldier’s will to fight. Some examples are:
- In the information domain, Ukraine is winning the battle for international public opinion. This week at the G7, more sanctions were imposed on Russia making supplying the frontline harder and reminding Russians how isolated they are. Another win for Ukraine in this domain this week is the shift in discussion about supplying F 16 fighter planes to Ukraine. Once, a taboo subject, supplying F 16 fighters is slowly becoming an inevitable reality. A reality that is synchronised with information painting the offensive as a first step, one to be followed by longer-term plans to secure Ukraine that include new F 16s.
- Ukraine is controlling the tempo of the campaign, raising expectations of a spring offensive however drawing out the period between the attack becoming likely and it happening. The effect is to keep Russian soldiers on-edge and anxious, so when the attack does comes, they have suffered a long-period of stress.
- Isolating Russian front-line troops by using long-range missile strikes targeting logistics hubs and transport infra-structure to disconnect them physically and psychologically from their support.
- Denying Russian forces safety in depth by using long-range missile strikes targeting barracks to reinforce to Russian soldiers there is no safe place in Ukraine.
- Fixing Russian forces near Bakhmut, first it was to hold Russian forces in place and more recently attacks in the same area force Russian commanders to make tough decisions. Is it better to withdraw; or send more forces to the area? Responding to the attacks tests already tense command relationships, creating a strategically important political battle within Russia’s elite as Yevgeny Prigozhin and Sergei Shoigu compete. A political battle that undermines the integrity of both military and political institutions; and makes commanding the campaign more difficult for Russia.
- In recent weeks, Ukraine has been ‘closing the gaps’ not just near Bakhmut but with Russian forces across the frontline. Denying the Russians freedom of movement by attacking positions and forcing them to remain static and defend; allowing Ukraine to probe for weak areas. Like a wrestler clinching with their opponent Ukraine is engaging to restrict the movement of Russia’s frontline forces, stopping them moving elsewhere and gently feeling for weak spots in the defence.
However, Hames’s argument is strong and Ukraine’s Manoeuverist tactics may still amount to nothing if the argument is correct. The Ukrainian offensive force, prevented by Russian artillery and missile fire from being able to concentrate enough force at any point to achieve a breakthrough. However, my appreciation of the situation is that Ukraine will prevail, although not because Hames is necessarily, wrong but rather because the Russians will prove too weak to adequately test the hypothesis. My reasoning is as follows:
- Russia’s communications technology is poor. Dr Michael Clarke, ex-Director of the Royal United Services Institute a very old and well-respected English military think tank, recently provided good insight into how Russia’s technology problems effect the battle. Speaking on Sky News he discussed a key issue with Russia’s artillery fire control, stating that throughout the war Russian response times for artillery and missile strikes are slow. Measured in hours rather than minutes. He observed that the time between a Russian observer seeing a target and hitting it was too slow to hit moving targets. This demonstrates that Russia’s digital communications network is not competitive; and will compromise the defender’s ability to disperse and still achieve mass at a decisive point using long range artillery and missile fire. Essentially, Russia is not technically able to use their artillery and precision-strike missiles in the way Hames describes to counter moving armoured columns.
- Ukrainian air defence is too good. Ukraine’s air force may not be able to compete with Russia and achieve air-superiority yet. However, the introduction of layers of NATO air-defence missiles and guns provides defence against air attack for a ground offensive. Russian aircraft are increasingly observed flying missions that do not cross the border. Indicating that over Ukraine they are simply not safe. So, although Ukraine will not be able to use airpower to attack it can block Russian air intervention in the ground battle.
- Ukrainian (NATO) intelligence superiority. Ukraine and its NATO allies have decisive intelligence capabilities. Starting with space, the United States dominates space and controls a vast array of orbiting intelligence satellites able to constantly monitor and target everything moving in Ukraine. Ukraine is supported by NATO intelligence planes constantly operating along the NATO border, monitoring Russian air and ground movement and listening to Russian radio and digital communications. On the ground, Ukraine has received large numbers of modern sophisticated radars and electronic warfare capabilities. All of which are now targeting Russian activity. Russia simply cannot compete because with NATO’s support Ukraine sees everything and if it wants to can hit it; almost immediately.
- Ukraine’s proven ability to disperse, infiltrate and swarm. The Kharkiv Offensive, demonstrated that Ukraine can coordinate dispersed and highly mobile forces able to infiltrate and then swarm around a targeted unit. Armoured brigades with modern NATO equipment operating like this could be a formidable opponent. The question is if these tactics can be applied in the ‘congested’ landscape of a heavily defended area; in which routes are canalised by obstacles or blocked entirely by defensive trenches. All under observation and therefore able to be attacked with long-range precision guided weapons.
The coming offensive may prove Hames correct, especially if despite the points identified above the weak Russian army is still able to stop the Ukrainian offensive. This outcome would generate considerable discussion about Manoeuvre War theory because it could prove that the power of the defence has increased and greater innovation is required. However, I remain optimistic that the Ukrainians have the creativity, equipment and technology to inflict a large defeat on Russia.
The final thought is that the Ukraine War provides opportunities for policy makers; and the wider community to gain a better understanding of war; and hopefully how we can avoid it. Or, if we must fight how to do so in the most effective and humane way.
Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer and TDBs military blogger
First of all they denied it was a proxy war …. hands up all the ‘slava ukraine’ crowd who did that around here …..
….and now it is being admitted the usa/NATO are directly involved in the fighting — “the United States dominates space and controls a vast array of orbiting intelligence satellites able to constantly monitor and target everything moving in Ukraine.”…… . For the ‘it’s not a proxy war’ crowd who will now claim that’s not an admission of direct involvement in fighting the Ukraine war ,,,, I say try shooting your neighbor”s gun ( because Ukraine fights with NATO’s weapons), with a blindfold on,,,, this gives an idea of how involved and essential NATO, and Nz is a NATO Partner, are in fighting this new ‘Eastern Front’ war against Russia.
Humorous ,,, https://odysee.com/@Overthrown:6/IMG_7689_MP4:6
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdabb3aba-38b2-4ad9-8dbb-bde68f69da2a_1133x1280.jpeg
Serious … “list of units which were broken over the Wagnerian rock”
Brigades:
45th Brigade
43rd Brigade
26th Brigade
28th Brigade
62nd Brigade
63rd Brigade
53rd Brigade
60th Brigade
24th Brigade
57th Brigade
30th Brigade
Advance Rubizh Brigade
Advance Azov Brigade
Advance Uragan Brigade
Advance Spartan Brigade
109th Brigade
116th Brigade
119th Brigade
241st Brigade
93rd Brigade
77th Brigade
46th Brigade
4th Brigade
17th Brigade
61st Brigade of Jaegers
Special Forces and Spetsnaz Regiments:
5th Assault Regiment
8th Regiment of Special Forces
Kraken Battalions:
122nd Battalion
68th Battalion
214th OPFOR Battalion
49th Rifle Battalion
15th Mountain Assault Battalion
Omega
Border Guard Donetsk
8th Regiment of the UDAR UAVs:
Shershen
Adam
Karlsen
Terra
Skala
Madyar
Khartia
Kep
Seneka
WASP Legions:
Dudaev Battalion
Georgian Legion
Mansur Battalion
Shamil Battalion
Gonor
Normandy Legion
Most of these battalions have suffered more than 70% casualties just against PMC Wagner.
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F38b2bf74-77ab-4ccb-b06a-337009f07ed4_1110x733.png
i am a proud member of your ‘Slava Ukraine crowd’ and of course Nato countries will be directly involved just as the USSR was directly involved in earlier conflicts such as the Vietnam War.
Nato countries would be stupid to not to be directly involved and I for one would like to see them increase this involvement.
I agree with you James. More NATO involvement would be welcome!
Well I wish NATO would get more involved, defeat the Orcs, kick Putin out of the Kremlin, and put him on trial for war crimes. And that includes the whole lot of the siloviki – Shoigu, Lavrov. They are rotten to the core!
Well according to you Gadfly,,, Putin, Shoigu, Lavrov are not even human ,,,, they are ‘Orc’s.
If you called them ‘Snow Niggers’ it would be less de-humanizing ,,,,, and a clearer indication to the rest of us of where you are coming from.
Well put.
No surprise to see vile and violent racism and chauvinism come out in defence of a nation that has been subverted by vile and violent racism and chauvinism.
Russia’s attempts to prevent this war is years long and on record. As is the WEst’s continual baiting provoking and gaslighting to this very end.
Putin started the war.
Putin still calls it a military operation.
Putin is bombing civilians and civilian infrastructure.
No, this is yet another US created conflict. Still, Russia is fighting this ‘conflict’ with kid gloves on and no, once you look past the US-led mainstream media, aka, step inside the US-led independent media world, then you are drawn to finding out the truth for yourself.
Glory to Ukraine.
Thoughtless response, why, because Ukrainians are being slaughtered, all in the name of US interests and mindless slogans. Call for peace my friend, call for peace. Glorious peacefulness.
spoken like a true Banderist !
And you are a racist Francesca or whatever your name is. Francesca da Rimini is burning in hell as we speak. Read Dante if you don’t get the connection!
You mean the world according to Putin. Haven’t you heard of agitprop AO?
In the war of stupid
You just won
All the ‘vile and violent racism’ has come from Russia. Calling the Ukrainians Nazis and Banderites is a classic case of schizofascism.
Normal people support Ukraine, weirdos and social rejects support Russia.
So we have the execution of Ukrainian civilians at places such as Bucha and you object to the perpetrators being called Orcs?
Thank God for Jame Brown ,,, I thought it might have been AZOV type far right racist fascist’s who view Russians as subhuman Orc’s,,,, and those they deemed collaborators/supporters, as ‘filth’ to be cleansed from the lands,,,, who might have murdered the Russian supporters in Bucha ,,,,
It does not make much sense, the Russians killing those who support them ,,,, but then tedheath has repeatedly told us how stupid they are.
Personally I’m sure James Brown is as honest as the day is long,,, in an Arctic winter…..
….James, calling out in the dark ,,,, “look look,,, those bloody Russians,,, see what they are doing!”
As coherent as ever B Awakesky.
The point is, it is the siloviki and their blind followers who are the Orcs. It is not a description of the Russian people holus bolus. Can’t you Putinists get it in your heads that Putin is bad for Russia.
Orc in the Ukraine usage is a three letter word for untermensch ,,, and all Russians are Orc’s to the Heirs of OUN/Stephan Bandera ,,,,
How many statues have been erected to this Hitler equivalent in Ukraine since 2014? ,,,, Someone should ask the large number of NZ Defense Force observers observing over there,,,,,but they wouldn’t answer anyway..
Because the ultra-nationalist fascist fighters/units such as Azov, Right sector, C14, Kracken, Aidar, etc,,, are among the ones we (5-eyes/NATO) are training and arming….. thats a simple fact.
These are the true ‘elite and committed soldiers’ we are being told and hearing about …. ,,,
they would also be among the 30% who voted for War,,, when the 70% of Ukrainians who voted for Peace were betrayed in the Zelensky election fraud.
Germany/Hitler had such elite units/troops too ,,, with the same racist ‘exceptionalism’ ideology providing the same fascist fanatical commitment,,,, ,,, that is why they have kept the same Insignias, Flags, and language ,,,
Although Orc is a modern three letter word for saying ‘Subhuman Russians’ ,,,
Slava ukraini is still the old OUN Slava Ukraini ,,,
Here’s the emblem of the (Ukrainian) 14th Waffen Grenadier Division of the SS (1st Galician)… in Canada https://canadiandimension.com/images/made/images/articles/_resized/Galician_monument_480_800_90.jpg ,,, Being SS would they say Sieg Heil instead ,,, or maybe both?.
Nowadays ,,,, with the OUN stylized iteration of the Ukraine trident kept on… . https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coat_of_arms_of_Ukraine#/media/File:Lesser_Coat_of_Arms_of_Ukraine.svg ,, It’s Orc killers Insignia ,,, and they also killed the subhuman Jews, Roma, Poles etc ,,,
************
Putin saved Russia from the malicious and corrupt free market ‘shock therapy’ fraud/crime being perpetrated against them ,,, https://youtu.be/B3B5qt6gsxY?t=2341
Every usa President from Truman on-wards has been trying to harm or destroy Russia ,,, in unchanging officially documented Usa Govt policy,
National Security Council,, NST 10-2 & NSC 20 https://youtu.be/XiFgrXnSH4g?t=2388
Modern Usa/NATO/5-eye neocons are psychotic megalomaniacs,, who are insanely mad and quite frankly “ashes in the mouth”stupid,,,
Russia is part of MAD,,, neocons don’t have a cheat code to escalate around that…..
Thankfully Putin has made the Bear strong enough that the neocons defeat should only destroy where and who their NATO support is directed at, as usual…. Poor Ukraine.
https://rumble.com/v2fcljs-from-russia-with-love-grishanov.html
Putin is an Orc the same as his cronies are: Shoigu, Lavrov, Patrushev, Medvedev, Prigozhin, Gerasimov. They are all Orcs as are the people that support them!
The siloviki are inhuman. Look at what they are doing to Kara-Murza who will die in jail, Navalny, Nemtsov – all the Russians who dare to state the truth about the regime are either imprisoned or assassinated.
Righto Ivan, Russia so good why dont you move back and pick up a AKM72
teddyheath- “Russia so good why dont you move back and pick up a AKM72”,,,
My kiwi wife works at the Nz Ministry of Defense so I’m far more valuable here ,,,, :0
Oh Shitski!, thats the Vodka in me talking again,,.
Forgive me Papa Pu.;) .
Ted’S so stupid the simpleton may inform the SIS about me,,, with the ‘proof’ I just provided ….
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Septic Ted calls the Russians pests and expresses his wish to “trap and kill the filth”
Sieg Heil/Hail Victory/Slava Ukraine indeed Teddy,,,
It does appear that Bakhmut is now completely occupied by the Russians (or all but) and how much (if at all) is this an intentional act by Ukraine to draw them in / encircle them on the flanks and cut them off a la Stalingrad?
It would seem hope springs eternal, its all a plot to trap the Russkies. How about asking why the hell did the Ukies / NATO not fight a manoevre battle in the first place? If as Ben says they are so good at that why didn’t they? With all the wunderwaffen that have performed so admirably (sarc).
I said prior we would have to await the outcome of the offensive to draw any conclusions, I’m still waiting. So where is Shrodingers offensive?
Russkie and Ukie are racist words – I find them offensive.. I think you are a racist Nick J. Then again it is hardly surprising from an alt right, Trump supporting extremist.
Read your comment on Orcs above you cretin.
An Orc is a mythical race invented by Tolkien. I really can’t see the problem in calling evil forces that. If you don’t like it too bad. But Ru…kies and Uk…es are offensive terms. You are on the wrong side of history NickJ and you know it!
You really are pathetic.
A racist is gonna be racist ,,,, how convenient that that Ovod aka Cantabrian aka Gadly aka Kikimora’s schizophrenic multi-poster names all agree with each other ….
80% of Russians support Putin over solving the neocon NATo/Ukraine problem ….
They are all Orc’s according to the poster known as Gadfly/Ovod/Cantabrian/Kikimora.
Ukraine used Bakhmut as a Russian pest control area now they will circle round it trap and kill the filth. Seems pretty clever to me Ivan.
You call yourself a German scholar yet you can’t even spell an echt German Name ‘Schrödinger‘ correctly! You are full of shit Nick J!
I taught German for many years here in NZ; lived in West Germany for 2 years, and probably know the German Language just as well as you, Ovod.
Everybody knows that when writing in English we conveniently leave out umlauts unless the writing is for formal publishing.
Ovod: you are a shameless bullshitter: you would have done better to lament the omission of the apostrophe before the final ‘s’.
Silly fool.
And you In Vino are a bad tempered idiot. Nick.J did not only miss out the Umlaut if you care to notice he left out some consonants as well.
Umlauts only for formal publishing? You really are in fantasy world!
Perhaps In Vino=Nick.J.
He left out a single ‘c’. Pettifogging Ovod..
and who do people suspect you re doubling as?
And you are the chief hairsplitter around here In Vino.
Bakhmut was destroyed by Russian aggression.
Viva la, aggression.
The “unfortunate” that have survived will now live unfortunate lives somewhere else.
dream on james but it’s good to see you trying to make the best of a bad job
” My assessment is that Bakhmut will fall relatively quickly to Ukraine, based on Russian command issues and logistic weakness.”
Ben in his last installment shows all the arrogance and delusions of the collective west
More selective amnesia .Wishful thinking will not do the trick Ben
As for Russia being on the wrong side of history, that depends on whose recording of history
The racist west, who chauvinistically believes themselves to be the apex of civilisation , or the emerging global south, who have had it up to the neck with the rampaging Eurotrash colonists
The times they are a changing
Hannah is that you?
Feminist ✅
critical theory ✅
anti-capitalist ✅
Post colonialism ✅
Marxism……. I think that box can also be ticked.
The Russians have only one option and that is to dig in for the long hall. Neither them or any other lot can sustain that type of warfare. History tells us that much. Vietnam, Afghanistan…. name them ….
Well, Johan, it is nice to know that the Russians have a nice, comfy, long hall to shelter in..
Too much wishful thinking by many pundits here, especially that noble poet … tedheath. (sarc)
Homonyms have never been my strong point.
I would prefer hole to haul.
The sooner we get beyond this conflict the better.
Francesca I don’t think the west Is anymore racist than the Russians.
Did the Russians murder more than 4.5 million people in the Middle East, like the Yankee scum have done in just the last twenty years alone?
You tell us!
How many have the Russians killed in Afghanistan, in Syria ……..
It will not take much to research the number of wars and conflicts that Russia has been involved with since 1992.
Glory to Ukraine.
Quite right Johan! Stick to your guns! Слава Украіні
And that means Russia is less racist? Unjust occupation of Iraq by the ‘coalition of the drilling’ doesn’t make Putin less of a wanker.
4.5 million you do exaggerate Mo.
You really have a jaundiced outlook Frank.
This is true….
The problem is Ben Morgan is that “WE” the collective russian trolls have been wearing our tin foil hat conspiracy theorists saying that the west is lying about Russia imperialism, their vast superior weaponry and the reasoning for attacking the 4 oblast which it will eventually incorporate into Russia.
It a war of attrition, and the factories in Russia are churning ova their weaponry systematically not to mention that it helps the Russians that Ukraine is right nextdoor.
and exactly how many times have the TDB military ‘experts’ declared russia to be running out of this or that and being on their last legs?
Perhaps if we used the correct terminology you would be happy. Russia has culminated and will lose this war.
The military industrial complex trots out war propagandists to shame the anti war movement (where the fuck are you lefties?) with ‘you want to be on the wrong side of history?’ by not supporting escalation and potential nuclear fallout.
Bored Gen Xer ffs.
“where the fuck are you lefties?”…where are the Lefties – watching/listening to the fucken media. Enough said.
The Russians are digging in for the long haul.
And history tells us that Britain, America, Russia and others that have tried this, failed.
The Russians will retire from this intervention with or without Putin.
Unfortunately, a lot more blood will probably be shed before this eventual defeat.
Ben says In the information domain, Ukraine is winning the battle for international public opinion. This week at the G7, more sanctions were imposed on Russia making supplying the frontline harder and reminding Russians how isolated they are.
Ukraine and the Western media are indeed doing a great job in the West. The “Golden billion” are lapping it up.
The other 7 billion aka G7, “global South” aren’t buying it. Significantly this year the GDP of BRICS has exceeded that of the G7, and there’s another 30 or more lined up to join. Trade is increasingly not in $US, the rest of the world is sick of the weaponising of the dollar. The sanctions have only accelerated the process.
Europe by forcing the Russians to look east have written their way into the wrong side of history. Their industrial competitiveness has dissappeared with cheap Russian gas and oil that isn’t coming back.
In terms of supplying the front line there is no noticeable supply issue with Russian ammunition and equipment whereas even the Western militaries are screaming out lack of the same.
I’m sure the West will pull out all stops for the long advertised offensive, and when that fails what next? The one thing I do know is that will be spun as a glorious victory by our media.
Glory to Ukraine.
Seems like glory is about to feel the wrath of a Russian winter with no Ukrainian oil, wheat, electrical grid, or Europe’s reliance on Russian gas. Honestly I wish NATO would withdraw or at least fuck Russia up. They really are useless can’t do nothing fuckwitts.
It is strange how humans perceive and respond to adversity. Those close to the action keep ploughing fields, planting and harvesting crops. They generally show compassion to the enemy. (Some individuals act very differently.)
From a distance, outside the direct threats, they act with little compassion, despair and grandiosity. (Some individuals act very differently)
And you are inclined to the grandiosity, aren’t you?
Glory to your Migraine !!
How very droll In Vino!
Ukraine is not an oil producing nation. Where did you get that idea from Sam?
Google says Three Ukrainian regions contain hydrocarbons resources: the Dnipro-Donetsk basin, the Carpathian region in western Ukraine, and the Black Sea and Crimea region in the south. The Dnipro-Donetsk basin is a major oil and gas producing region accounting for 90 percent of all current Ukrainian production.
Well done PhuD, accuracy not your strong point. Still only one of the three regions is Ukrainian any longer.
Well Nick J, (stands for jerk), you may be technically correct in that Ukraine produces oil. But it certainly doesn’t export it! Ukraine produced approx the same amount of oil as New Zealand last year and is 76 in oil production. We are number 77. We are not an oil exporting nation and neither is Ukraine.
You are well aware that Sam was under the impression that Ukraine was a major oil exporter. He was totally wrong. Don’t be disingenuous.
I’m sorry but whilst I agree with a lot of what you say, there is precisely zero reason to think a Russian defeat is imminent.
Yes, the Ukrainians are likely to make significant gains over the coming months but short of nukes from Russia, this war will not be settled any time soon.
One thing Ben Morgan is right about is the West’s strategy relies on wishful thinking – what looks good in the media and what they can sell to their publics to maintain support for the Ukraine war effort. Along with the latest one-day-wonderweapon.
( Kindhjal 1 – Patriot 0).
The Russians are fighting a war of logistics and attrition.
When Russian theatre commander, General Surovikin, said he was going to grind the Ukrainian army down, this is exactly what happened in Operation Bakhmut Meatgrinder. The only surprise was how willing the Ukrainian army and presumably their astute NATO advisors,
Morgan raves, about were willing to oblige them.
Correction Patriot 6 Kinzhal 0.5. Get it right!
Nick+J. What are BRICS doing for Russia? China and India don’t overtly appear to be supporting Russia militarily and at the UN have formerly recognised that Russia have “ïllegally” invaded a sovereign country (Ukraine). They are happy to take oil and gas from Russia at below market rates and their recent diplomatic initiatives with Ukraine indicate they are willing to let things play out and accept a weakened Russia after the conflict is over. China and India’s posturing of wanting peace and having humanitarian goals for this conflict is just rhetoric IMO. They are not confident Russia can win and therefore will not back Russia in a meaningful military way and get dragged down as well. Interestingly both India and China have let a French plane transporting Zelenski to the G7 meeting in Japan fly over both India and China. It looks like these big two population centers have read the tea leaves and do not want to antagonise the G7 who strongly support Ukraine. Russia on the other hand has few allies. Despotic countries like Iran and North Korea are the two strongest supporters of Russia. India and China are being smart and are not backing Russia militarily whom they see as bound to lose this war. Long range missiles which are already in Ukraine plus the yet to arrive F16’s make Russia’s job of holding illegally occupied territory in Ukraine look both very difficult and very temporary. I may be wrong but I don’t think so. Lets see where things sit at the end of summer.
You’re misreading the transition.
The US has no friends, just countries that couldn’t say no to it. That has changed. The BRICS is establishing a new order. China is already in a symbiotic relationship with Russia where each supports the others weak areas. Russia has accepted the duty of breaking the empire on behalf of us all, although many fat ignorant Westerners of course would prefer to continue to suckle on the centuries old colonial teat. All the US is left desperately trying to do now is make countries bridges with Russia, but only the Western vassal states and dupes like NZ are falling for it. The rest are just watching and waiting, letting the US think it has the numbers when really its existential axis of war and greed is about to crumble beneath it.
We may not like what comes of this collapse, but it is no doubt just. Only question is how much death and destruction and suffering the US and its lackeys cause on the way down. At the moment they are continually forcing escalation in Ukraine instead of accepting inevitable defeat. It is their actions that will lead the Russians to make a strike on these arms or airfields or ships or war rooms beyond Ukraine’s borders. Will they listen to a conventional strike on a Nato base? Will they need a nuclear one?
We’d have to find a sane Nato warshipper to find out.
What a load of bollocks Paul/Pavel who alleges he is Ukrainian. Prove it! You are just another Putinist Ruzzian troll. I have every right to call out Putin because Russian blood courses through my veins!
Still awaiting the proof of your PHD there Cantab, anything? Something? What are you so embarrassed about?
Why don’t you do some research finngrin? If you are capable of it that is. My theses are in the UC library. Happy hunting!
I have nothing to prove to net entities.
You, however, have proven you have no non-ad hominem argument. Consistently.
If I could understand what you are saying that is Paul. Your Ukrainian links seem to be made up. You haven’t told me where your Ukrainian family comes from. My grandmother was born in the Poltava oblast so I have links to Ukraine.
Far be it for me to know any more than you Trev so we can wait to see how it plays out. I’d suggest that you reconsider China’s position vis a vis the “pivot to Asia”. They cannot afford Russia to lose, as cannot Iran and the Arab oil producers. There’s a lot at stake.
Russia is just China’s and India’s gas station and mineral suppliers at rock bottom prices.
Johan, in a previous post I got the impression that you grew up in an apartheid state and understood the shortcomings of legalised racial discrimination. Am I correct?
If so how do you reconcile support for a state that has made one ethnic group (Russians) second class citizens and banned their language?
Maybe Nazi sympathisers are setting europe up again.
As usual your description of Russians as second class citizens in Ukraine is simplistic, generalistic and plain wrong! The only Russians being targeted will be collaborators but that goes for Ukrainian speakers as well.
Get a brain Nick J! You obviously haven’t got one!
Indeed.
94% of those who live in Ukraine choose to speak Ukrainian and 59% of Ukrainians can communicate in Russian.
These statistics changed since the “fall of the wall” for some reason?
Ukrainian was adopted as the official language of Ukraine in 1989.
Johan that’s the disingenuous answer that I used to hear from supporters of apartheid. I’m not buying.
The truth is uncomfortable?
In SA the oppressed used language of the oppressor as a battlecry.
Inform yourself.
Come on Gadfly try to be intellectually honest instead of using a sock puppet account, it shows a measure of a man when he has to pretend to be someone else to continue to make his weak arguments.
What the hell is a sock puppet? You have zero authority in this field finngrin. You are just a Putinist idiot. Au contraire I have written two theses on the subject and published one book.
There are very few scholars who write favourably about Putin’s Russia. The ones that do have supped at the master‘s table. Stephen Cohen, now deceased, attempted unsuccessfully to justify Putin and Richard Sakwa has been thoroughly corrupted by Putin’s bribes.
Слава Украіні!
Sock puppet: Often used by a person who uses multiple usernames for the purpose of deception. Cantab/ Gadfly/ Ovod most respectable blogs ban sock puppets. If the shoe fits!
Total bollocks and you know it.
Normal people support Ukraine, weirdos and social rejects support Russia.
Intelligent well read people support Russia, the MSM Plebeians are well, Plebeians. To quote Forrest Gump, Well you can’t fix stupid.
Why would well read people support an authoritarian regime?
Following your example?
Although I am not really convinced that you’re well-read (it should be hyphenated, you know?)…
Convincing argument!!!
The real question is, what makes you think you know anything about Russia and what Russians want?
By reading the blood-drenched RaRa 500 years of reininventing global imperial oppression “Free” Western press?
You are existing inside an Orientalist bubble. The only thing we really know about Russia are their states words and actions, which have been entirely frank and open and appealing for their own security needs since MUnich 2007. The West have always taken that as a sign of weakness, and are pissed they didn’t carve Russia up uner Yeltsin. That is all we collectively “know” about Russia.
Speak for yourself.
Ho, ho you have shown zero evidence of being intelligent finngrin. How many languages can you speak? How many books have you written! None? You are the stupid one. We are the intelligentsia!
Слава Украіні!
PhuD strikes again, how dull.
Change the record Nick J. You are full!
Every time I take on you Putinist pillocks I think of my colleague at NCRE Iana Sabatovych who was chased out of her home in Mariupol by Ruzzian Orcs. This is not a theoretical exercise it involves real people -life and death!
Whats your name???????????????
By that I mean Gad, Ovod, Cantab etc. And I hope your colleague approves the ethics of you putting her name out there. Did you even ask her?
You talk about ethics NickJ what a hypocrite you are!
Nick. J. If you took the trouble to research my names, you would discover that a gadfly and овод are the same thing! Then again you are not likely to be familiar with the film scores of Dmitry Shostakovich are you?
Who cares?
Obviously high culture is foreign to you Nick.J. Who is the intellectual light weight now?
Two very different issues.
In SA. Education caused people to question and revolt. The language of the “oppressor” became a battlecry for the oppressed.
Ukrainian became the official language of Soviet Ukraine in 1989 by decree and 94% of the population communicate in Ukrainian while 59% of the population can speak Russian. If there was oppression in the Ukraine pre 2014 it was nowhere near what was experienced in SA.
Glory to Ukraine.
Still disingenuous, not buying it Johan.
Not asking you to accept my answer to your question.
Your argument in this post demonstrates your reluctance to engage considered rational discussion.
Short of ideas?
Johan, I asked the question as a challenge to your intellectual honesty. The claims about Russian language being suppressed don’t match with established facts (as your comparison with it “not being as bad as South Africa “implies). I will leave you to decide.
“If there was oppression in Ukraine pre 2014 it was nowhere near what was experienced in South Africa.”
And I stand by that.
‘Established facts’ Nick.J. What a misnomer. They are your opinion of the facts. The only way they are established is in your own mind! You have to do better than that! What are your sources for these ‘established facts’?
Quite right Johan. Nick.J finds it very difficult to accept rational arguments. He is fond of using emotive Putinist epithets to attack those of us who support Ukraine and hope for a decent, civilised Russia.
So so dull PhuD.
Convincing argument N+J.
That begs the question are cult like military super powers correct for engaging in imperialist conquest, war and colonisation. Yes as a Maori I make this comment in defence of my colonisers.
It’s not going to be difficult making my argument considering Maori became a putrid philosophical treatieist running and hiding from ones enemies I feel the more pressing philosophical issues lay with the justness of colonisation and imperial war.
While manoeuvre warfare may not be deep intellectual fare the questions Ben asks in the later subtext are. There are no easy answers because warfare posses real moral conundrums in this regard.
Readers should know that I try not going into philosophy with any bias now does it bother me that colonisers go around with deeply held vitriolic tendencies I guess.
Do Maori go after adopted children in state care after living with loving pakeha families. I guess they do.
And just because my grandfather’s and grand uncles were members of the Maori battalion doesn’t mean that I’m some insufferable fan boy of NZDF.
I just see question and try to answer question.
Nay my motivation for defending colonisation is not born of passion however much my jingoistic comments may try me and such reasons are three fold.
The first reason I am loathed for defending colonisation is because Chinese, or American or Russian or who ever colonisers is not born of frivolous motives. Earth is dying after all and the colonisers are in a powerful position to industrialize new areas being opened up to urbanisation and agriculture thanks to higher carbon levels in the atmosphere thoring out previously uninhabitable land.
Now I readily admit it maybe our fault that earth’s resources are being depleted and the earth itself is declining towards uninhabitability.
How ever blame for earth’s habitable decline is one that more blames past people than present people for there rapturous motivation for war and to sustain billions of people.
Yeah China and America possibley mismanaged there resources but does that mean they should accept declines in the population or quality of life how past empires like Rome took it or should they do whatever they can to maintain a first world living standard because after the fall of Rome came something that was much more terrible the dark ages the only thing that ended those deadly blood feuds was Nuclear Weapons.
I posit that anyone drawing the former motive be most optimal is not drawing from the ultimate conclusions by drawing from a human perspective.
If the consequences for not settling New Zealand was lesser than I’d agree that the colonisers were wrong to invade.
But if the consequences for remaining wedded to one geographical location is population decline, resource depletion and death is in my view always the most irrational view to advance upon as it involves the elimination of the self.
However there are alternatives to colonising Ukraine. There are huge areas available for urbanisation in Siberia and Antarctica now considering there are no roads in these areas there’s an abundance of natural resources that stand as a pretty good reason to urbanise these areas. At the centre of these resources lay gold, iron ore, natural gas and rare earth minerals related to a variety of modern life sustaining purposes related to conducting energy.
Green Party defence, foreign affairs and trade theory activist would posit that there are alternatives to waring over modern life sustaining resources and suppress alternatives which if true would hinder Putin from going to war he could have just urbanised Siberia. It maybe true that we can’t make simplification and we can’t make assumptions about the feasibility of urbanising Siberia with out being fully informed about the motives for invading Ukraine.
What we do know is Ukraine oil fields could provide western oil companies a chance to survive Americas debt default. President Biden last week cancelled a speech to the Australian Parliament affirming the AUKUS deal because he has 30 days to refinance Americas 30 trillion debt ceiling. Yup, America is screwed.
If Americas debt collapsed and Jeff Bezos offered a plan to urbanise and industrialise modern life sustaining resources in Antarctica wouldn’t you want him to do it?
The second reason I position myself as an apologist for colonisation is military AI which is being tested in Ukraine can produce an artificial super Intelligence that could crunch the numbers and reverse aging process. Let me repeat – “reverses the human aging process.”
The reason I’m about to go over reversing the age process is related to the first because it’s an argument about resources. So feel free to label it 1.b instead of 2 if you are that sort of captive, sophist…, Douche.
Putin may be committed to hostility but the colonisation efforts for humans more broadly seem to be focused on more of a range of ligitimate life sustaining efforts. Granted such efforts are killing and destroying parts of organised human life. And in Ukraine Russian troops are being hunted and it’s not easy to watch. There’s no way around this the Russian and Ukrainians are being massecered for the sack of humanity. How ever and I know how awkward it is for me to inject a “however” after that last sentence but the product of this massacre could potentially be an anti-aging-syrum!
And while humanities continued existence may not rest on the data obtained from testing killer AI in the field as is true of obtaing Ukrainian oil. The attainment of eternal life does sound like it would solve the whole we are trending towards extinction problem. More over the discovery of an element that could grant eternal life would likely have an impact on the future of humanity and the future of the universe more broadly that I think we can atleast say the moral implications that sending flesh into the clutches of killer AI to produce an anti aging syrum is not entirely clear.
(Sigh* how did I make another comment that could get my head kicked in. I really tried for that not to happen) I could imagine that if it was discovered that a mutation in my DNA was discovered that was capable of curing all forms of disease there would probably be a more than a few people that would be a bit peved at me if I was to refuse to allow my blood to be harvested for the benefit of the human race overall. Or better yet what if my brain produced a cancer curing substance and in order to be replicated I have to be killed or atleast lobotomized.
I really hope for my personal sack this doesn’t happen but for the rest of you I rather morbidly sort of hope it does. Would I run from y’all like a man framed for murder does of course. Would I get the impulse to struggle while I’m strapped down and turned into a blood bag? You betcha.
Would it be awesome if Green Party defence, foreign affairs and trade theory activists let me live? Yes, that would be oh so beautiful and collectively redeeming for the entire human race. But it would also be incredibly dumb. Not that a panasea for all disease would assure in noval problems but we should probably ire on the side of obtaining said panacea.
Look capitalism could have produced a cure that was less profitable for there shareholders and more lucrative for humanity for instance they could legalise weed arousing humans who enguest it into a state of euphoria. Then western corporations seeking to control cheap to extract Ukrainian oil would be way more morally retched. But our boy uncle Sam didn’t do that did he. Instead Uncle Sam decided to endow Ukraine with God like killing powers. And by the way I’m not sure manouver warfare decerns an easily repeatable moral conflict.
The right thing to do with the War in Ukraine is not clear either way but that doesn’t mean niether is the wrong thing.
That said I do have questions for Americas DARPA researchers before I conclude that ripping human flesh apart with killer AI is an acceptable way to proceed. First I would want to know if there was away of extracting the special substances from the data without killing humans. If there is a more feasible, even if more difficult than expensive method for extracting the formula for anti aging that the Pentagon is refusing to acknowledge. Then we could condeme the entire juxtaposition to using manoeuvre warfare as a justification for expansionist war. I also wonder what steps U.S. officials have taken to negotiate a transfer of Ukrainian oil to western companies. If no such efforts have been made then again we can condem the war in Ukraine. Of course if it’s not possible to extract Ukrainian oil without speaking to Putin then negotiations is probably not possible. Although without a peacesumit involving all participants I’m not sure of what’s possible.
The third and final reason I’m acutely rapped up in remonstrations for the sack of the much meligned soilders conducting the war in Ukraine is well the Ukrainians seem rather belligerent. I don’t want to be disingenuous and say we can pinpoint the violence that errupted in Ukraine. And certainly Russia Treaspassed into Ukrainian territory first. But the conflict in Ukraine does not seem to be at all defined by unilateral violence on humanities behalf. It is clear that Russia is an invasion force in this case but it isn’t entirely clear that Russia could have approached Ukraine more deplomatically when NATO have inched so far up Russia’s boarder they’re firing missiles into russia. In many cases Ukraine lashed out at a referendum to anex Crimea. And some of the dialogue used to contain Russia was not used against force exacted by Russia but an attempt to set up an over watch outpost in Ukraine of China’s silk road because y’know, the other overwatch position Afghanistan wasn’t as capable or as willing as Israel overwatching middle east oil.
Now I’m not saying Ukrainuans are depraved killers they have a right to protect their homes whether western corporations have desire over Ukrainian resources or not. We may just be witnessing the age old motive where the welfare of opossing factions is either somewhat or totally mutually exclusive hence, much of the violence that takes place in nature. We can sympathize with both sides Russia and Ukraine. We can recognise the destruction and damage being dealth to organised human life while also acknowledging that Russia trying to invade Ukraine are trying to survive.
In this way I offer another paradigm in which to look at tactics of war. Is Russia a violent colonisers overrunning a peaceful and generous Ukraine and destroying the world’s beautiful natural habitat for the sack of pushing there own debt ceiling higher? Or are Russians technically refuges.
Perhaps it was Generals Rupert Smith and Barry McCaffrey intentions that we grapple with these difficult questions later on while having trouble decerning right from wrong. War actually underscores that great truth that energy is constantly being converted for the sack of survival. We are all resources and everything and everyone needs other resources to survive. Everyone and everything needs other resources to be destroyed in order to gain the nessecary energy to survive. To me this is the most thoughtful goal conveyed by maneuver warfare theorists.
There is infinite energy in the universe but finite resources and finite viable habitats and species fighting to obtain the requisite share of resources needed to ovoid dying out. And success in pursuit of resources is achieved by construction, not destruction. In other words the war in Ukrain is reflective of the universe fundamental principle that it is a battle for energy.
Now coming back down from the ether you’ll notice I haven’t spent much time on the machinations, composition or what ever of maneuver war fare as if only soilders would move in a particular way they could win a war. Manouver warfare isn’t supposed to present any path to a divisive victory that would be a premintive strike. Russia could just inoculate it’s population from a militarised ebola strain and release it into the atmospher how ever I’m more focused on the larger implications of the war in Ukraine.
After all Putin is not completely devoid of a conscious especially at the behest of Russian speaking Crimeans or Russian speaking nationals he’s willing to send the army to save civilians and he’s shown mercy numerous times.
Correct me if I’m wrong but I have not seen Putin comit murder wantingly or without hesitation. But still it is Putin’s pursuit of power that instigates conflict and ultimately results in death and destruction. So no one is completely absolved here but the actions of war mongerers are consistent with the universes natural laws which are morally ambiguous questions of right and wrong.
So big ups to Putin there is no way he doesn’t recognise the morally ambiguous questions that is obvious military adventures. Or I find it difficult to imagine that any devious intentions hasn’t been devised by him.
Anyway the only way to defeat manouver warfare is to cheat. It’s not possible to make decisions faster than killer AI there end game prowess at narrow to general intelligence is to far ahead they will always consentrate forces where you are weak quicker than humans and by the time the pieces are set your forces are so far distributed they release weapons of mass destruction.
I know it’s not the best model but try taking on just one brutal killer AI on Red Alert 2 Yuri’s revenge.
Don’t make Putin cheat.
“Away” I guess you meant “a way”.
And “decisive” not “divisive.”
Thanks for sharing your thoughts. It was a slog but I am glad I read what you wrote.
There is some interesting ideas in your essay.
Many scholars are worried about the same stuff.
Go and meet some Ukrainians and talk to them. There are Russian Orthodox churches in Auckland and Christchurch.
I’m not in some cultural vacuum thanks to the war, Tinder has been matching me up with many, many beautifullly soft and generous Russian and Ukrainian woman here in Australia.
Most of my comments are critical of the powerful but that’s because they’re easy targets. Y’know Hitler, Stallin, Pinochet etc was just so obviously evil.
Cult leaders are clearly a cautionary tale. Say hello to any poor and vulnerable European they’re full of sales pitches about why you must support them and why the nation they are trying to flea from is so terrible. Or maybe social media have shown them easy suckers and unfair expectations.
I guess cautionary tales go over the heads of the well housed and well fed which is fine but you look at cult leaders like Hitler, Biden, Xi or the Kim’s Kim jun un (Even Kim Kardashian) they’re really not that happy. Even after grabbing all the power and embracing the Darkside it’s still not enough for them. They’re always after one thing which runs counter to isolation and conquest. I mean seriously do these guys hold the elixer to eternal life, is economic prosperity just around the corner? Who’s got my bong and wheres all the snacks? I thought all we needed was high in fat, sodium and surgery snacks.
Well some might say that modern day emperors are just trying to lure soilders in with there own goals because the snacks are just a lure it’s a lie. The problem is most humans are not psycopaths y’know people become soldiers out of love or patriotism who will do anything in there powers to protect their brothers and sisters at arms. It really is beautiful how manoeuvre warfare specialists embody this goal to protect the ones they love. A competent General does not seek out powers the way psycopaths do they do it to protect the ones they love. You can say that about soilders they don’t do it for power itself they do it in the face of hypocrisy and defending the powerless but unless you are a complete psycopath then power will not nourish you it just leaves you disappointed.
In fact power will not empower soilders the media can take character flaws and amplify them to look ten times worse.
Generally humans do not suit psycopathy they only adopt psycopathic traits to survive but it’s not truely who a soilder is. Y’know Most people are uncomfortable rapping and killing. I’m not talking about laws or the justice system I’m talking about that constant reminder in people’s heads that might preclude them from entering the gates of heaven.
We should always be conflicted individuals and I’m sure Ukrainian and Russian people have these thoughts.
So when Putin asks people to rise up against Ukraine he is being manipulative but when a competent general does it, it, is, for, a, different, reason. The obvious reason is a competent General wants help ending an enemies ability to conduct military operations as is military tradition. But ultimately a great general wants a circle of friends who are nearly as equal to them as possible.
War is an extreme institution that only really suits people with extreme personality traits. The weakness of cult leaders are they only think about saving themselves. Power inflates a cult leaders ego to the point where they can only rely on themselves to provide assistance. Or maybe you end up like Hitler moving imaginary pieces around a dinner table. And so they begin to believe that they are all powerful and unstoppable and isolation usually follows after that.
But these characteristics just underscores just how unatural soildering is to normal human culture and behaviour we need social interaction we don’t just need soilders to protect civilians from cult leaders and enemies most humans need social interactions to lead a good healthy life. Because humans are intelligent we have to seek out others to have conversations with.
Even Hitler who retreated so far into himself at the end still needed to have interactions with other people. I mean Hitler was a far more effective politician when he had to meet with generals, politicians, scientists, economists and the public. I mean having to meet and have daily meetings made Hitler a more cunning and pragmatic individual. But after making europe into his personal holiday destination he basically became a hermit to the point he was rarely seen in public. And in the later days of the war was obsessed with complete nonsense like ancient artifacts and super weapons. In Hitler’s isolation he also missjudged the threats against his rule which lead him to believe in foolish individuals like colonel klinct instead of generals like Erwin Rommel.
Erwin Rommel wasn’t just a Nazi he was the best Nazi Germany had to offer and for that reason Hitler Destroyed him. History later recognised Rommel had nothing to do with a plot to kill Hitler. He was busy organising the defences of Nazi France that almost defeated the D Day invasion after his death. So close but no cigar general.
Generals want to surround themselves with a component leadership but this is ultimately at odds with cult like political leaders because ultimately the goal for people like Hitler, Xi Xingping is to rise to the top of the pyramid which is a very lonley place to be.
Those individuals that worhip power in order to rapidly climb the pyramid don’t really understand the consequences of taking on that much responsibility. It’s good to have aspirations of achieving greatness in life but not at the extreme persuit of one’s life goals it can become toxic.
A Leader chosen by the people to lead the military and the economy can not ignore the maintenance of relationships with family and friends in the same way that they can not ignore trade relations and military pacts.
New Zealand’s military and culture makes us one of the most respected nations in the world. A place where everyone wants to come just look at the immigration numbers. But that culture of success at any cost leads to a broken and toxic culture of broken lives and a much more unhappier nation.
I mean hands up how many have seen those cringy sigma male meme posts with Patrick Bateman from American Psycho. Some people have empathiesed with Patrick Bateman because to survive in the world one has to be cut throat. But they fail to acknowledge that Batemans character lived in the American finance world of the 90’s a cocaine laced nightmare of greed wealth and basically all the worst aspect of our system rolled up into one proffesion. It’s because of characters like Bateman why we got the dotcom bubble burst and the mortgage crises that’s turned into the great recession that we are currently dealing with. Now that’s a scheme that would make Hitler proud.
People that see Bateman as an admirable figure miss the point that the luxury status and wealth, the shredded body is ultimately meaningless. He’s not winning he’s just doing those things to survive. He’s not getting one over anyone else because there’s not really any such thing as a sigma male. He’s a loser and he’s dead inside which I would have thought it obvious if you’d have seen the movie. I guess a lot of people only saw those clips on Instagram.
A lot of things that attract young audiences to things like power trip Bateman are the same things that attract people to climb up the pyramid of power. And the Sith path can only lead to death and destruction 😀
I mean take a look at Erwin Rommels death he was trying to change the Nazi system because he knew it was toxic and idiotic by nature. Rommel new the toxic relationships Hitler had created was going to destroy Germany. Rommel also realised that the Aryan race wasnt a system raising the best up to the top.
Arguably manuevre warfares greatest general Erwin Rommel injoyed Hitler’s praise. For a while manuevre warfare worked, but eventually Nazis would collapse under the shear weight of the natural order of things. But for awhile Nazi GDP went gangbusters y’know there where actually individuals in there willing to co-operate to a certain extent. But eventually some of the most brilliant ideas of science and military tactics Nazi Germany could produce would collapse under the weight of the natural order of things.
But the natural order is how things really work. Cooperation can never truely work and whenever there is cooperation between two or more nations it’s never really done with true good intentions. Instead it’s done because both sides seek something from one and other.
Being kind, compromise and being empothitic and open minded are not really signs of a weak person but isn’t actually signs of a good person either. It’s just logical behaviour and takes into account the natural, order, of things. We are social creatures and in order to do something great it will always take more than one individual to do something great.
Sorry Sam, but from what I have gathered over the years (I am 75) I believe that Rommel actually was implicated with the plot against Hitler. You happened to find some rogue, upstart historian, sorry.
Thank goodness you didn’t pick me up on colonel clink. Hitler could have listened to Rommel instead of Guderian. The most over-hyped German commander ever, who only got famous because he published a memoir before anyone else.
But you’re right about my revisionist history. A little wiki searching and the only thing Guderian contributed to tank design was insisting that all tanks have a radio in them.
Rommel on the other hand, it would be interesting to see how he’d react to the histories written about him. Like how historians attribute his success to the total penetration of allied intelligence early in the war and his strong logistical network.
How much of his experience can be useful on a “play” field would be interesting.
It’s difficult to analyse the war in Ukraine and conclude that an invasion of Russia or meeting a Chinese invasion force in Taiwan would “play” out in any logical fashion.
There is something delightfully absurd about these invasion plots.
The fact that they seem plausible.
Monster Trucks, E-gaming and world of tanks and such are big now, proving that general population is interested in this sort of thing.
Likely the entire cold war had a different vibe to that of the killing fields of Rommels North Africa campaign with Tankery matches in cold war Europe as an outlet to the tensions instead of total war.
Add to that the list of evolving battle tactics and I could just as easily spend weeks studying butterflies instead.
Of course mastery over the Darkside happens to.
I’ve never been a military officer. I’ve never studied military history or battle tactics and stradagy as part of a military organisation. I just have a brain.
People who follow orders can not create the conditions in which war can conclude. That is in the purview of the people elected to lead the military.
The simplest answer is maximalism vs minimalism in terms of fleet sizes and battle formations. Most Kiwis are minimalist interms of resources and time they’re willing to contribute to national defence, and conflicts that have a technically regional or global impact are scaled down to have a personal impact over time.
While NZDF has 2 battle ships and no fighter jets and no armoured tanks they’re are being required to have a regional impact on global players. In New Zealand though this limited view has been effectionatley coined as “sea blindness.”
As with so many things explaining debt and poverty gripping New Zealand being explained more “sea blindness” should be the essential guide in examining national security risks to New Zealands economic prosperity and way of life, even more.
One of the relevant areas are manuevre warfare specialists who don’t give that much attention to economics or whether or how badly thier homelands are fracturing.
For a lot of anti defence force activists the fall of the Berlin Wall is a defining period.
But the American Empire that underpins that soft and cuddly green parties safety and security blanket is coming apart. And a lot of that socio and economic fracturing can be placed at the feet of feminist and transactivists and there woke sympathisers.
A lot of wokies will say NZDF are warmongers which is used under their proper title at its peak rather than small groups fighting much larger and extremely resourced super powers namely Russian and Chinese soft power in a naive plea to deny China’s expansionist goals. China isn’t our friend. Theyre not our ally but niether are they our enemy. Feeding a billion isn’t a very good reason to go to war they would say but how much of thier propsperity are they willing to sacrifice so China can grow. The answer I guess is China harvests organs they can just eat those. A very naive point a view.
According to battle tactics as it evolves over time the intentions is to join AUKUS pillar 2 which is cyber space and space technology transferes to do with targeting solutions for nuclear weapons. And that’s closer to the thing ruling governments have to suppress global conflicts into regional proxy or even personal conflicts untill the fall of the wall till now when China popped up on the radar.
Prime Minister Chippie is now in-charge and atleast his reputation is enough to keep Chinese and American interests apart and atleast his reputation has been enough to keep defence force and police commanders out of the public eye expressing concern over building tensions. The difference between NZ intelligence services and Chinese equivalents is New Zealand has to keep it all hush hush. China doesn’t have that imperative who conducts espionage and counter espionage operations in New Zealand quite openly. Remember they started off there expansion after some of the worst fammines in history now they have to feed a billion people.
Not only does Prime Minister Chippie have to go into the APEC leaders meeting with New Zealand national interest at heart but also with the interests of the wider south pacific at heart. Basically the Pacific leaders forum are going to have to join up under Chippies leadership in the APEC meeting. Australia is already in the American camp and some south pacific nations are already with China. There for New Zealand has to remain neutral.
This would make it seem like New Zealand has far greater resources in which to engage with China and America or any other emergent super power how ever in reality the Pacific leaders forum is an incredibly tenuous and weak alliance. For one thing all of them are incredibly concerned about climate change and war and demand financial aid to fortify there existing holdings a strategy which has been used to successfully align with China. In some ways it’s hard to fault that logic especially considering Chinas recent reversal on renewable energy. Almost importantly China wants to insure as much political favours are on there side as possible.
So Chippy will be walking into the APEC leaders forum with a pool of shrinking resources due in large part to internal jealousies and internal divisions down from a potential pool of 16,000 defence force personal to less than 8,000 only 200 of those Chippie could fully trust to conduct operations in the region with the resources that the Public could be ass’d to provide.
According to anti defence force activist essential guide to warfare this suits the Green Parties theoretical defence policy pretty well and I think this synthesis between minimalists and maximalists works with what we see through Sea Blindness to.
We will kind of never really see NZDF engage in full open campaign against a worthy foe.
Chippie, or his successor will have to perform a lot of hidden fad attacks (ah, gotta love the Darkside) securing the loyalty of security and economic partnerships for fear of being mualed by toothless sheep but the damage will always be shown politically rather than militarily. This can be taken as softening up the South Pacific and galvanizing desires to strip the region of its resources and a proper resource war still to come.
NZDF are held up as necessary peacekeepers turning the tide of war towards Green Party theories of conflict resolution and non-combat roles. But the region’s resources go into the global supply chain giving resources to those who desire an even larger share of our own resources it doesn’t have to be China it could be any number of competing interests given the blurred lines of hybrid warfare I touched on earlier. But it doesn’t make super powers overwhelming powerhouses we see something similar with the war in Afghanistan or Vietnam how ever it is desirable to reduce casualties even further where the battle for hearts and minds was won with propoganda and the television.
Where NZArmy / NZDF personal try to take larger formations they have to ato take those tactics and grow NZDF direct force personal without pulling resources away that is under command by the rest of the government. That would be done in the hope that as NZDF tactics and strategies evolve over time it’ll free up more resources as an adversary becomes even more solidified.
Any conflict over resources under the control of the Pacific Leaders forums must result in the end of that adversarial actors ability to be useful for any conflict at all and encourage political favours towards our own government but particularly NZDFs side more actively. The discovery of the 5eyes network might just end that cooperation and fracture the south pacific even more.
But defence minister Andrew Little would insist that The Labour Party now recognise that the region is not benign after all they did sell the Skyhawks and only buying two frigates instead of four based on that assumption. To me that sounds like a Party who says I was just about to clean that when Jordan Ramsey asks why this fridge is now a mold storage device on Kitchen Nightmares. But I think it does point to regional unity that is being built by government actions. Andrew Little may exacerbate the will to rebuild NZDF but I do think the sentement is there.
There is a wider context to battlefield tactics embedded in strategy that strategist can’t create perse. I mean how do you create drills that predict how Richie McCaw did a forward flip over an opponents back while holding the ball and gets a turnover. Brilliant battlefield tactics and manuevre warfare is very specific. It’s not just grit and determination or logistics or whaty it requires a national spirit that decides if you’re just going to run it up like a green party defence minister or run it up like you mean it.
Personally I think this is a better way of building up the NZDF and give wider context to defence capabilities, tactics and political strategy.
Thanks for a thought-provoking essay, Ben. Keep them coming please!
I would be happier about the situation if Ukraine had a couple of squadrons of F16s, but that is a couple of months away. Pity the West has dragged its collective feet so much.
How do you get to post a comment on this fucking useless Daily blog website!
Say something intelligent – for once.
It auto moderates out rubbish posts so you are buggered Ivan.
Then Tedlensky, Slava Dumbkraina, why are your shithouse comments not auto moderated out?
Maybe because Ted is on the right path. You, on the other hand, have a tendency to abuse those who don’t agree with you.
Got to have the force muh G
an “understanding of war” has to look at the whole context including economic
this is essential reading/listening
https://geopoliticaleconomy.substack.com/p/ukraine-neoliberalism-europe-economic-suicide?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Thanks CP, Hudson is pretty much unmatched because he has hands on as well as academic experience in finance and government. He will tell you where theory and reality diverge. His godfather, a friend of his parents was Lev Bronstein, hard to beat that. A close friend was Minsky. Hudson is hard to match, a true giant.
On the contrary Hudson is off his head! Trying to say that Bucha and other war crimes are fabrications! The guy is 86 anyway. I think that senility has set in. Hudson is an economist not an historian and it shows!
Denying war crimes such as those committed in Bucha and Irpin is akin to holocaust denial. Remember Joel Hayward?
Throwing a tantrum PhuD, poor little diddums. At an 86 year old no less who has probably forgotten more than you will ever know. You are an intellectual midget.
And what does that make you Nick.J.? I’m not criticising Hudson’s economics with which I am generally in agreement. It’s when he ventures into the political space that the problems begin. The same as: Mearsheimer and Chomsky, who are senile old academics who cannot adjust to the rapidly changing dynamics of this war.
And I reiterate: to deny the Bucha and Irpin atrocities is akin to holocaust denial.
Who is throwing the tantrum Nick.J? I think you are. I have many strings to my bow.
You are just intellectually bankrupt!
So are you denying that Russian forces committed war crimes in Bucha Nick.J? You are on a slippery slope …
Well Nick.J, I am entitled to call myself a Doctor and you can’t.
Also I did rather well in University Challenge some years ago. I tend to win my battles.
Thanks CP, Hudson is pretty much unmatched because he has hands on as well as academic experience in finance and government. He will tell you where theory and reality diverge. His godfather, a friend of his parents was Lev Bronstein, hard to beat that. A close friend was Minsky. Hudson is hard to match, a true giant.
Great piece. Just a pity the guy that can make a real difference chooses to invade and destroy Ukraine.
Putin can withdraw his troops from Ukraine. The UN is willing to step in and keep the peace between the Ukrainian government and the paramilitary fighting on behalf of the aggrieved. Then the rules based society will sanction Ukraine into adhering to the rules.
Now there is Russian on Russian violence, terrorism escalating inside Russia, in Russia. What is new?
“Peace lovers” depend on a rules based society and the war in Ukraine is unlawful and awful.
For a new world order to rise that can effectively counter American interference, Putin needs to show restraint and sit down at the table with BRICs+. That is our best chance. I am not hopeful as one can see that those in BRICs+ are there to further their own interests.
You are right Johan, those at and joining BRICS are there to further their own interests. That’s exactly the point. They are there because the alternative (G7, World Bank, US$) does the opposite, wishes to keep them as subsidiary.
So you are an old Bolshevik are you Nick. J? In my book the Bolsheviks and the Nazis are just as evil as each other. The breakup of the Soviet Union came when Gorbachev, Yakovlev realised how morally bankrupt Marxism was. Hastened by Afghanistan and Chernobyl not to mention a massacre of demonstrators in Lithuania. The clock is ticking on Putin’s regime.
So far I’m a Nazi, racist, Bolshevik, Putinista… You make big assumptions PhuD. On the basis that you are totally inaccurate I’m going to have to assume that the veracity of your purported thesis is questionable in the extreme.
Please carry on making a fool of yourself and academia.
It is important to understand who you associate with. Your associations may well taint you.
Johan, look to yourself. To imply “associations may well taint you” is Orwellian in the extreme.
I am. R U?
You made racist comments about Russians and Ukrainians so I think your racism is proven Nick.J.
Ditto your comments about Bronstein aka Trotsky. Need I say more?
A jury would not only throw out your “evidence”, they’d throw you out too.
weak NJ – weak!
You certainly are sounding extremely authoritarian.
Hello pot
For someone who supports Putin, calling Johan authoritarian is extreme hypocrisy Nick.J.
There you go again making assumptions PhuD. Have a fine day.
Further to my earlier comment about kinzhal missiles being shot down by the patriot system here is a a You Tube link explaining that the kinzhal’s are not even “proper” hypersonic missiles. Also interesting is that three scientists that worked on the missile programmes have now been arrested on undisclosed treason charges. (This is widely reported even by Russian media). Putin, just because he has been embarrassed, by his hype about the kinzhal’s not being able to be shot down has now deterred his scientists from contributing to developing weapons for fear of treason charges. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xzCcvPvCXuI