The unemployment rate, the coming Immigration Tsunami & why Orr raises by another 50points

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No sign of jobs slowdown as official unemployment stays at 3.4%

The expected economic downturn has failed to make a dent in the jobs market, with official unemployment unchanged and other measures of the labour market stronger than ever.

Stats NZ reported official unemployment in the three months to the end of March was static at 3.4% but the labour utilisation rate, which is a broader measure of the proportion of people wanting work or more of it, fell to 9% from 9.3% in the December quarter.

The labour participation rate increased to 72% and the employment rate increased to 69.5%, which in both cases were the highest rates recorded since Stats NZ began keeping comparable statistics in 1986.

The working-age population and the number of people in employment both increased by about 22,000.

Infometrics principal economist Brad Olsen said the figures showed the labour market was not only tight but getting tighter and there was less spare capacity.

The real pressure comes on when the predicted 100 000 exploitable migrant workers arrive in record numbers to jam up our infrastructure that is already in gridlock.

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The resentment this will bring is going to be enormous.

America is facing banking contagion (again), the war in Ukraine keeps rolling on with the possibility of nuclear escalation and Australia just did a surprise OCR raise.

Things are about to get worse, not better.

Cost of living: Inflation rates underestimate New Zealanders’ true pain, data shows

New Zealanders have faced a higher rise in costs than the official inflation rate, data from Stats NZ shows.

The latest Household Living-costs Price Indexes (HLPI) showed a 7.7 per cent increase in costs for the average New Zealand household in the year to March 2023.

The official inflation rate for the same time was 6.7 per cent.

Increases in the cost of food, rent and interest payments were the main contributors to this increase.

Official Inflation went from 7.2 to 6.7 and the Peakers are out in force claiming inflation has been tamed and we can all get back to the orgy of capitalism fuckfest we all know and love.

These Peakers are wrong!

Dig into the Official Inflation numbers, food inflation is exploding above 20%, the drop was due to petrol prices down over 8%.

This was driven by Biden tapping his oil reserves to bring in global price stabilisation.

OPEC responded by announcing global cuts which take effect next month in May.

This at the very same time as the Government’s subsidy comes off petrol prices.

What this all means, is that as the full impact of the cyclone on horticultural industry hits food prices, we will have a spike in petrol prices.

Orr will raise by another 50 points because he knows what is coming.

 

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17 COMMENTS

  1. “The real pressure comes on when the predicted 100 000 exploitable migrant workers arrive in record numbers to jam up our infrastructure that is already in gridlock.”

    We should be so lucky! If the current government is reelected, there will be a stampede over the Tasman, thanks to their booming economy and Albo’s gracious provision of citizenship within 4 years of arrival.

  2. Why keep protecting the value of the dollar?
    Who benefit most?
    Importers or exporters?

  3. The reason unemployment is not increasing is because of the departure of the skilled [tradies nurses and the willing workers] to Aust. The number on the ” job seekers” benefit, the unskilled unemployables, fairly much remains fixed.
    The tighter the economic conditions get, more of the skilled will leave.
    Thus the RB rate lifts are not creating job loss unemployment, but they are shrinking the productive economy to the detriment of the country as a whole.

  4. don’t care about colour or religion but where physically are we going to house the influx??
    and no the market that loves mc mansions will not/cannot rise to the occasion

  5. The solution is to move away from low wage economy. Raising minimum wage is good…as long as that trickles up the education and skills levels.
    High wages will than drive investment in increasing productivity, education included.
    Businesses not able to cope with that should fail.
    It worked elsewhere.
    Will that happen in NZ? No.
    We prefer to blame the migrants – of course, they were not good enough for countries they came from.

    • Agreed, raising the minimum wage would help, but unless it leads to increased productivity, those wage costs just get passed on in price increases. We are a nation of many small businesses, increased wages without said increased productivity would cause many if not most to fail. If they do, where do all those employees go? If they can’t find a job and have to go on a benefit, then one day taxes are going to have to go up on top of what’s already proposed and the tax payer ends up paying these unemployed people their wages – that is the benefit in other words. I suppose some of that extra tax will come from you too. Who knows, it may be that you, Lightbringer, are in a government or protected job and can’t see the issue from any other angle….

    • Unfortunately we import too many low wage workers to keep our low wage economy going.

      • Interesting fact.
        Most imports make a better living than Kiwis holding down similar position. While most Kiwis fare better in Aussie than Aussies that hold down similar position there.
        The ability to match expenditure to income is often more of a challenge for residents compared to expats.

  6. Migrants often come here for a holiday see how lazy and unmotivated some bosses and workers are and think they could do well if they came here . In the UK AND Australia NZ workers are sort after as hard workers so being lazy is not THE NZ way it is a state of mind . This is the same where ever you go.Some migrants are held back in their own country by religious bias or the cast system as in India .

  7. He should raise the interest rate to 10%. That would sort it out once and for all.

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