The next election is 7 months away on Saturday, 14 October 2023.
National can’t believe their luck with Stuart Nash and are astounded that the Greens would start a culture war with white cis males.
Labour are raising benefits, Superannuation, minimum wage and promising vast new infrastructure upgrades. They are astounded that the Greens would start a culture war with white cis males.
ACT are promising the most extreme hard right political policy platform since Roger Douglas and they are astounded that the Greens would start a culture war with white cis males.
The Māori Party are the Kingmakers in the latest Roy Morgan Poll and even they can’t believe the Greens are starting a culture war with white cis males. The Māori Party be like, “Girl. Same. But come on, shut up’.
NZ First were asleep, but when Winston was woken up, he was confused by the words, “Green Party”, “Culture War” and “White cis”, which he took to be an infected pimple.
When you consider that in 2020 the polls were overestimating National by an average of 5.8 percentage points and underestimating Labour by 3.7 points, the election is wide open.
The question is does Chippy have the courage to bring real economic justice solutions to the table or will the election descend into a social justice culture war that only benefits National and ACT?
Here is the current Election Battlefield 2023 as TDB sees it.
LABOUR: 35% on election night
Bread and Butter Politics does two things, it puts delivery over ideology and because most middle class woke activists are gluten free vegans, they run a mile from Bread and Butter.
Unfortunately despite lifting benefits, Superannuation, minimum wage and promising to build a bloody second harbour crossing, bloody Stuart Nash is the gift that keeps giving.
The Nashy (Suns out Guns out) is not a grand chess master of the Dark Art of Grift, he’s thick as shit and always big notes to people he wants to impress.
That’s what he was doing on ZB when he bewilderingly boasted about interfering in the Police to challenge a judicial ruling, and that’s what he was doing when leaking Cabinet information.
The crazy shit he has said to the Forestry Industry will come out in the Slash Inquiry and THAT is when Chippy should dump him from the Party altogether.
Guyon Espiner’s exposure of Labour’s acquiescence to the corporate wishes of their consultant mates is galling. Watching Woke Wellington Warlords like the chinless wonder from down under, Big Davey Cormack, Clint Smith and Neale Jones all twist in the wind however is glorious.
This is all hurting Labour and because they don’t have any real policy solutions yet, they should start feeling nervous.
Labour had become bogged down in believing bureaucratic changes in the background was a means of delivering outcomes rather than actually raising taxes and paying for more social infrastructure!
Now Chippy has burnt off all the unpopular woke policy, he has to actually deliver on free public transport, free dental, free breakfasts and lunches in schools and more tax from the rich.
The rebuild from the cyclone demands more than the usual, A Ministry of Green Works must be back on the agenda!
Chippy denouncing the violence at the Posie Parker protest was the only political win over the last month and Labour will be hoping that holds the middle while picking up disgusted Green Party members who can’t believe Marama started a woke culture war with white cis males.
AAAP reports 120 000 kids are still living in homes who experience material hardship and CPAG once again point out that while they stats are damning, the truth is actually far worse…
“The trouble is, of the almost 9,000 households surveyed in this data, there was no inclusion of our most vulnerable families. Families living in motels and other emergency accommodation, as well as cars and other forms of homelessness were not included,” Prof Emeritus Asher said.
“The real picture is likely to be a lot more grim as anecdotal evidence suggests the numbers of families in these dire situations is on the increase.”
“We also know poverty is a driver of preventable hospitalisations, which is another reason to urgently address child poverty, for the sake of our overburdened health system.”
…the problem is that corporate consultants get in the ear of Governments and convince them to target welfare rather than provide left wing universalism because to fund left wing universalism you need to tax the rich.
If all Chippy is offering is ‘let them eat pie’, how different is that from National’s ‘Let them eat cake’?
Currently you could buy Labour a large red van, call them Pat and they still couldn’t fucking deliver!
NATIONAL: 33% on election night
I am Christopher Luxon, I am the leader of the National Party of Aotearoa New Zealand (minus the Aotearoa).
Here I am launching National’s new education policy whereby brain tubes installed in playgrounds will suck the succulent child brain matter into National’s new Education baby brain matter collection vat.
DO NOT ASK WHY WE NEED BABY BRAINS.
Vote National.
Luxon having Covid was probably the best thing for him because it meant he wasn’t fucking up every 3 seconds.
His anger towards The Nashy was righteous, his education policy struck a nerve with parents who are seeing the kids get dumber and National finally announced a policy about electricity that was smart and not dumb!
I know.
I’m as surprised as you!
National are finally getting some traction BECAUSE they are not getting involved in culture wars while the Left collapse into a self inflicted culture war!
The all important swing voter of those 50+ white tertiary educated women will have seen the violence at the Posie Parker event and as old school feminists themselves, won’t have seen ‘Pure Trans Joy’, they will have seen a women getting beaten up.
That is going to rush to National.
If National play a very straight bat, dump the more reactionary crazy shit, they might con enough voters to keep them in the low 30s which makes National politically relevant.
Thankfully National are shit and will fumble this when it matters most. Never undervalue National’s capacity for self harm and stupidity.
ACT: 17%
That ACT, a Party which was .7 in the polls 5 years ago (until the woke started their unwindable war on Free Speech), is now rating 13% in the latest Roy Morgan Poll and shows a polarisation of NZ politics we simply haven’t experienced from the Right since Muldoon.
ACT are the masters at using culture war friction and as the economy turns, as the Greens launch their war on white cis males, as ‘Pure Trans Joy’ looks a bit rough round the edges, the ACT electorate are going wild!
The problem is ACTs policy is so off the planet extreme, they have no comprehension what it would actually entail in passing it.
Imagine the following:
National and ACT win the 2023 election.
Because David Seymour is vastly smarter than Luxon, David gets everything ACT wants including axing the Ministry of Māori development, Ministry of Women, Ministry of Youth, Ministry of Ethnic affairs, Ministry of Pacific People, the Human Rights Commission and rewrites the Treaty based on nothing more than a referendum.
A hikoi of quarter of a million incandescent with rage Māori plus their allies descends upon Wellington in furious protest that makes the foreshore and seabed protest look mild.
They angrily start to occupy Parliament Lawns.
A spooked David Seymour and frightened Chris Luxon order the army to shoot.
Which part of that evaluation of ACTs race relations policy won’t happen?
ACT are going to trigger extreme policies that will in turn trigger even more extreme protest and when that gets to Wellington, it will be met with a frightened Right utilising the full muscle of the State.
This is going to get out of hand very quickly, you can not strip the Indigenous people of their political rights and pretend that won’t have an enormously violent backlash.
ACT are such pure eyed acolytes they don’t see their cleansing as something people would fight against, because ACT have no idea of the value of what it is they are burning.
The addiction to cancel culture and deplatforming by the woke has meant instead of debating the issue and winning people over, the Left simply rely on attempting to win the debate by strangling off any speech they disagree with.
David is a 100 times better campaigner than Luxon, the ease with which he shut down conspiracy theorists compared to Luxon highlights this. As the realisation that National are fading becomes apparent, ACT will pick up even more votes.
They are now established as the Right Wing Values Party and represent an existential threat to National in a highly polarised election.
They can not believe their luck with Marama attacking white cis males and the mob violence at the Posie Parker protest.
GREENS: 6% (+ 2 electorates) on election night
I’m not sure the Green Party and woke activist war on white cis males is the vote winner 7 months out from an election they seem to think it is.
It’s interesting the outrage towards signs at Groundswell vs the no outrage at some of the exceptionally violent posters and signs at the Posie Parker protest – the double standards are remarkable and I fear the voting public won’t see ‘Pure Trans Joy’ they will see the Thugs Veto and an attack on one of the foundations of democracy, Free Speech.
I’m a class Leftist. I believe the true demarcation of power in a liberal progressive democracy is between the 1% richest + their 9% enablers vs the 90% rest of us!
That’s why ACT and National are gaining millions in election donations from the richest New Zealanders!
While identity politics is an important personal journey of how you individually interact with power, if all you have is a tribal allegiance to your skin colour, genitalia or identity, then what use are you to the movement?
Identity Politics over class leads to an ever decreasing circle of exclusion and expulsion as the activists push for pure temple politics rather than Broadchurch solitary.
The greatest danger of identity Politics is that white cis men start seeing themselves as victims and appropriate the identity of victimhood.
Tell white cis males they are the problem long enough and they become the problem.
We have major issues with damaged masculinity in the West and adding fuel to that fire as the Greens have done is going to cause a terrible backlash.
Yes, Marama was stunned after being struck by a motorcycle handle 3 hours earlier as she was posing for selfies standing up against Brian Tamaki’s deeply repressed leather daddy motorbike club, but she claimed the statement as a Minister of the Crown and most now believe she believes that white cis males are the reason for violence in the world.
If I’m wrong, ACT will plummet, the Greens will soar and you can all laugh at me as we cruise to a 3rd election win.
If I’m right however, we are fucked.
The Greens are to political strategy what Today FM is to Talkback radio. The Greens are so incompetent they couldn’t get laid in a monkey brothel wearing banana costumes.
Māori Party – 5% + 3 electorates
The more feral the anti-Māori rhetoric gets, the more votes the Māori Party gain. They have a real shot at 4 electorates this year and their staunch policy like GST off food and military neutrality have a lot that left wing Pakeha will party vote for. They have a real chance of being the Kingmaker can could generate an MMP overhang making out more difficult for ACT and National to get a majority. Watch the way JT and David Seymour squared off on The Working Group last week to see there is no love lost between the two.
Part of this surge in support is demographics, Māori are a decade younger than Pakeha, part of it is the reconnection with civics the vaccination drive provided and part is the grotesque racism spewed out over co-governance and 3 Waters.
Māori represent the highest proportion of non voters, and the race baiting rhetoric is dragging those non voters over to being engaged, something we haven’t seen in the past.
If the Māori Party can hold up their Party vote they will become the Queen maker and the relationship between Māori Party President JT and Willie Jackson will become the most important one politically.
NZF 4%
Winston’s State of the Nation was Aotearoa New Zealand (without the Aotearoa).
It was a good speech to the Party faithful in Howick, well attended. He can still draw a crowd.
He was funny, he was mischievous, he ranted against Māori elites, demanded an end to Government Departments using Māori names and made some jokes about identity.
Classic Winnie.
Problem was that it just seems very tired now.
If you really hate Māori aspiration, you are voting ACT because you know David Seymour means it when he says he will disband Māori Government Agencies.
Winston is selling a watered down Redneck brew. Is that enough in such polarised times with a far larger youth voting demographic?
I’m not sure to be honest.
What we actually needed from Winston was a back to basic focus on infrastructure in the provinces and a demand to rebuild using some big new ideas.
He should have been arguing for a new Ministry of Works.
He should have been arguing for a stronger foreign policy to counter Chinese and American influence.
He should have been talking about a Bank tax and making sure NZ Corporations who are benefiting are returning more back into the community.
We needed the fearless Winston who championed classic Think Big Muldoonism.
Instead we get Government Departments not using Māori names?????
It was so underwhelming and I am simply not sure if his petty polices are the solutions desperate Kiwis are going to be taking to the Ballot Box in October.
There is an electorate that is seeking populist solutions, Winston provided them with very little reason to earn their vote.
TOP – Ilam + list Coat tail
The Opportunities Party leader Raf Manji has a chance of winning Ilam now Gerry Brownlee has stood down. Sarah Pallett won the seat in 2020 during Labour’s red wave, but Manji was competitive against Gerry back in 2017. If Manji can steal the seat off Pallett and against a weak National newbie, TOP could enter Parliament AND bring in 2 MPs off the Party list.
TOP are talking about Housing and the political tax impasses that prevent Housing from being built, if they can convince the public that he can win in Ilam, then a vote for TOP isn’t wasted. If Labour were smart they would consider talking to TOP and offering them an Epsom deal in Ilam.
Sub 5% Feral Antivax God Squad vote – NOTHING!
The good news is that Brian’s current umbrella of Sue Grey’s antivaxxers and his Destiny Church QGod squad aren’t nearly enough to get over 5%. However if they added Matt King’s vanity project and the anti abortion New Conservatives, that cavalcade of political circus freaks could get over 5%.
Thankfully they are all toxic narcissists who couldn’t work together if their lives depended upon it, if they do though, don’t underestimate how many feral Qanon antivaxers who have been brainwashed by social media hate algorithms there really are out there.
SPECIALS:
I think you will have so many people voting who don’t normally vote that the specials will be huge on the day, this, along with the unpredictable overseas vote this election could throw any election night result out the window when the specials and overseas votes are counted.
OVERSEAS VOTE:
The MIQ over subscription by tens of thousands hints at the incandescent rage many of our diaspora felt trying to get back into their legal home country during the Covid lockout.
There is no way their torture won’t have political ramifications.
Last election Greens did poorly in their usually high overseas support vote because Ardern’s global stardom eclipsed the Greens, this election however the frustration is directly at Jacinda’s policies so I think the Greens will take that vote back and then some.
Our diaspora are furious and if the Green Party rhetoric is too moderate for their anger, ACTs throw-open-the-borders-and-let-the-freed-market-decide-death policy is for you.
ACTs policy has the whiff of judgmental vengeance to it that is the perfect cocktail of payback people locked out of their own home want to inflict on those refusing to open the door.
My guess is that our diaspora are far more motivated to vote in 2023 than we have ever considered and their anger at being locked out will be sharp.
POLITICAL DOMESTIC TERRORISM:
I fear the combination of intense political polarisation, a steep economic depression and the explosion of disinformation via social media hate algorithms could generate political violence in the 2023 election.
I thought the immediate threat of political violence comes from the far right. The QAnon movement in NZ is disconnected from this dimension of reality, they believe in Sovereign Citizen Sherifs who are ’empowered’ to hang enemies of free people. They are fucking lunatics who are capable and philosophically compelled to commit an act of political violence. Add to them far right white supremacist bad faith actors and Alt-Right extremists and you have radicalisation combining with fear grifters to generate a febrile landscape of existential fears that can only be combated by justified political violence.
However, it was the woke Left at the Posie Parker event who actually started the political violence and are now justifying political street violence.
Out of this cauldron of self loathing and projected cultural hate is the possibility of a lone wolf actor or small cell group committing an attack on a Politician.
DEMOGRAPHICS & HIGHER PARTICIPATION RATE:
This will be the first election in NZ history where Millennials and Gen Xers are a larger numerical voting block than Boomers, because lockdown impacted so many, I think people who normally sit voting out will have a real passion to make their voice heard, even if that voice is an anguished scream of fear and nonsense.
POLITICAL POLARISATION:
Because the Political spectrum is so hung and the polarisation so extreme, nothing is being collectively done to solve the myriad of problems we are facing post-Covid from crime, to cost of living crisis, to climate change, to inequality and poverty. No big ideas and no real solutions to the challenges we are collectively facing as New Zealanders.
Our focus is on hating the person who offended us on social media. I just don’t think we comprehend what a distortion of reality Social Media generates and the new subjective rage it manufactures.
We will end up with a result both sides will refuse to accept if they lose.
PREDICTION:
The extraordinary rebuilding and adaptation costs NZ has to undertake in the wake of Cyclone Gabrielle must not be borne by the poor, it must be borne by this who have profited most from the pollution that has caused this dystopia.
Two of the largest global warming emitters in NZ are Z Energy and Fonterra. Last year Z Energy made a $269million profit and Fonterra made $583million in profit – shouldn’t they get a special tax to help rebuild from the climate change damage these companies produce?
What about Forestry and the slash they produce?
ASB made $822 million in profit alongside other Australian Banks making Billions. Shouldn’t those who have speculated pay for the poverty and inequality their profit margins generate?
Shouldn’t people earning over $250 000 per year pay a new top tax rate?
Shouldn’t we look at a financial transaction tax, sugar tax and wealth tax while reducing GST and taking not off food?
For a very long time, climate change has been some theoretical future threat.
The scientists have screamed at us.
The polluters have lied to us.
The politicians have failed to lead us.
Despite our denial and refusal to acknowledge what was coming, the speed of the changing climate means the climate warming future is upon us now whether we like it or not.
For too long the climate change debate has had little to do with the overwhelming science and more to do with the culture war.
Those who enjoy the lifestyle generating the pollution that is killing us don’t want to hear they are part of the problem and they don’t want to believe environmentalists they despise are right.
We are beyond the culture wars now because the reality of the extremes that were warned are upon us and denial can no longer blanket the truth.
Vast investment into adaptation is the only game in town and a vast upgrade of our reliance infrastructure alongside an enormous upgrade of State capacity is the only political solution to the future we now face.
This investment into increased State Capacity must coincide with the resilience infrastructure upgrade alongside the adaptation capital required.
We must look at more sustainable degrowth concepts because there is no more business as usual.
These weather events will simply get more intense.
The warnings are over, this is the age of consequences now.
Chippy has to understand that 2023 is a debate over State Capacity.
National and ACT want to amputate the State while Labour, Greens and Māori Party want to build State capacity!
The 30 year neoliberal experiment cut the NZ State to the bone and the political project for each National and ACT Government is to strangle off revenue to the State so the State can’t redistribute it. That way citizens don’t become ‘reliant’ on providing subsidy to every day living, because once people get used to having services that work, they demand it politically.
This story about Hospital capacity spells out we don’t just need more drs and more nurses, we need more hospitals!
We need more Nurses, more Drs, more hospitals, more police, more Army, more Teachers, more schools, more corrections officers, better public transport, better prisons, our own pharmaceutical industry, and we can only fund that by taxing the fucking rich!
Left Universalism is the way we bring electoral solidarity to beat National and ACT, alienating woke middle class cancel culture identity politics will only divide the Left and allow the most hard right Government this country has ever seen.
Poor people are not sitting around the kitchen table cancelling people for misusing pronouns, they are sitting around the table trying to work out how they pay the bills.
We must move towards Left Universalism if we have a hope of stopping ACT and National.
Chippy needs boldness if he wants to go beyond Jacinda’s rhetoric.
He needs free lunch and breakfast in every school, he needs public transport, he needs 30% stake in Supermarkets, he needs to implement all the welfare reforms, he needs to implement CPAGs Working For Family Tax Credit, he needs to take GST off food while putting a sugar tax on, he needs the Green’s wealth tax and the Māori Party’s financial transaction tax but most of all he needs courage or else all his bread and butter policies will never be tasted by the poorest children.
Unfortunately the Greens have declared a woke war on White Cis Males and the Left can’t win a culture war.
All ACT and National need to do is allow the Identity Politics activist base all the rope they need to hang the political left.
When people are anxious economically, culture wars become super charged.
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I think Chippy can deliver another majority on the night. Find the people something meaningful to do brother. New Zealand’s creative capacity has to be unleashed.
Sam, it’s April 3rd, not April 1st.
No he can’t. He is literally just J.A in male form and pretty much anyone knows that. Gaurav Sharma was just vindicated, his cabinet is empty and devoid of ‘talent’, and the people of this country have had enough of that social engineering of Labour. Besides, no one in this country earns enough to eat and pay rent. Go figure why you would want to vote for a clown brigade such as the current Labour Party shitshow. But then i guess its tribe above country.
Forex money is pouring into NZ.
” Besides, no one in this country earns enough to eat and pay rent. Go figure why you would want to vote for a clown brigade such as the current Labour Party shitshow ”
Can’t argue with that !
This, is mighty interesting. Russell Brand talks re Trump. Here, Russell Brand covers a wide scope of interest and much of [it] can be compared to post neoliberal, post MMP, all bought and paid for AO/NZ politics.
It’s very much worth a listen. 18:47 minutes. Check it out.
“As a grand jury votes to indict Donald Trump, how strong is the case against him and will this be Trump’s undoing or galvanise so much support that it hands him the 2024 election on a plate? One thing is for sure – the Democrats [are] more interested in bringing him down than understanding what led to his rise.”
https://youtu.be/RhsD3O5kYGE
The seemingly pointless rabble that comprises the teams of nuts titled MMP certainly do one thing. They deflect. They de-focus. As does Trump
Before this coming election, we’re governed ( Read exploited while being hindered.) by tag teams of greedy fervent, neoliberals wearing cloaks of many neoliberal colours. AFTER this coming election we’ll continue to be governed ( Read exploited while being hindered.) by tag teams of greedy fervent, neoliberals wearing cloaks of many neoliberal colours.
Labour. National. NZ First. The Green Party. The Maori Party. The ACT Party… they’re all the same thing. They all take bribes from lobbyists, they all manipulate our economy to enrich the already wealthy and they all disappear when real need and real people ask for the help they pay politicians to be able to have access to.
Yeah. Do you mean last night? When he was asked to define a female woman and he shat himself with his response on MSM live TV. And in the process of losing 2%-3% of labours’ real female vote!
Here comes an early election!
One error in this piece is to praise Labour for increase in benefits and superannuation payments. They are both linked to the average wage or inflation so would go up who ever was in power . Poor management of the economy and weather have caused record inflation and even with the rise many are struggling even with the rise.
Fossil fuels is dead. Or should I say cheap fossil fuels is dead. Inflation was always going to go up when everyone rejected electrifying the motor pool. After writing essays upon essays in the comments about what needs done it warms my cold little heart knowing that everyone realises how fucked they truly are. Have a nice winter 🙂
Trouble is that Labour has done nothing for the tax payer of this country. Higher living costs are only good for Government and their GST intake, the housing misery is now so out of control it will take something special to fix it in the meantime we warehouse people in rundown motesl/cars/caravans and ditches. Kids go hungry, have mouth full of rotting teeth but no one can afford a dentist, use pliers to get the rotting stumps out citizen that will do for you, kids die of tonsilitis in emergency departments because we have no doctors, no nurses and chances are no janitors either in hospitals and Andrew Little is no longer to be seen and thus will never be held accountable for the shit he rained down on NZ since his illfated attempt at pretending that he was good enough for PM, people are about to lose their jobs because no one has any money left to buy anything.
These people vote.
They are a disgrace.
People in New Zealand living in misery due to a complete disregard by this dreadful Labour (Lino) Government.
Mr Little the union man?
Where is he?
Usually that would be the case but because inflation is higher than the average wage growth they actually linked it to inflation rather than average wage growth this year.
Problem is without raising thresholds, msd will just deduct any increase to main benefits from disability allowance, tsa, or accomodation supplement, so most beneficiaries won’t see much of an increase.
every single time they do that.
It’s not always the government’s fault. Some people are just way to wonderfully intelligent
Labour/Green are unbelievable and hate women – human females and white cis males. Vote comrade. Vote.
Labour still haven’t repealed 3/5 waters and their fantasy ‘Maori religion is Science’ education reforms.
Well, today Chippie is having to have a mini cabinet reshuffle. I think that says it all for labour.
They don’t have enough gas in the tank to make it to October! They’ll run out of MPs to promote to become ministers by then the way they’re going with all of the retirement notices being handed in as well as fuck ups.
I’m guessing we’ll hear the call for an early election within the next few weeks, before the end of the month.
As for the Maaaaoris. Counting is important. There are not enough Maori voters that vote for them and very few others. They are as culturally woke as the green fascist nazis.
Act is Labours the other side of the brain so…
The Nats are the Nats. Labor in drag. Trying to be straight but they’re as bent as fuck!
TOP can win Ilam. Then they’ll pimp themselves out for a UBI for under 30 years because they’re James Shaw in casual clothes trying to be in with the mental kids.
NZF. Koro Winston is in! For everything the other parties aren’t, he is. If there is anyone who can manage a 3, 6, or 12-month hung parliament. It’s him! And followed up with another election!
NZ is a Banana Republic. That was declared at the riot by the mental yoofs, dudes bashing old women, and general fuckwittedness by the NZ public at a public speech for women.
This has been enabled by the greens, some dodgy refugee status peeps, and a whole bunch of retards of all ages.
We use to think countries like Hati, Columbia, SA, etc… were Banana Republics. But here we are, a backward and isolated country at the bottom of the world enabling mental people to beat up old-aged pensioners! What a fuckn disgrace!
Oh, I forgot the greens….nemind.
Too true 🙂
PS. Chippie just blew the election! He couldn’t define what a female woman was last night on National TV! There go his female voters.
The big bold move, the startling earth shattering, enlightened one National has come up with?
Education and teaching. There aren’t enough teachers. Boosted by Covid events over a couple of years truancy is a problem. Aberrant behaviour in schools is burgeoning. The number of children with severe problems, learning and behaviour, pose severe challenges on teachers and schools. Teachers want more money and resources.
The Grand Plan?
National is going to have a prescriptive curriculum so every teacher will have the recipe of what to do when. Blustering and Bullshitting Brilliantly.
Firstly, while the charade that we pretend is our politics remains the ever growing cancer known as neoliberalism made up of mutant cells like ACT, NZ First, The Green party, The Maori Party and TOP etc, all we will get is fucked without the kissing.
Secondly, I hope ACT and the Natzo’s make the gubbimint. It will serve the wankers who don’t vote right.
My prediction is that ACT and the Natzo’s will ‘win’. Then we’ll become the 51st state of the U$A, a south pacific state of Israel and a member of NATO. And, of course, a target.
Without wanting to seem doom profitie I think we, and our planet, are fucked. My only consolation is that I’ll get the last laugh. That, and I’m old. I’m done. I’m outa here in the not too distant future.
Watch this. This is good.
Russell Brand and Matt Taibbi.
“This week I spoke with Matt Taibbi. The “so-called” journalist shared his feelings on the congressional hearing and where this will lead…Additionally new findings on the Twitter files” https://youtu.be/3glp3PqzDik and this, his latest. https://youtu.be/3glp3PqzDik
Now? All you pro natzo pro act pro extinction nuts? Knock yourselves out. Get your little dicks out and fizz away.
“We will end up with a result both sides will refuse to accept if they lose”.
That’s a possibility but I guess we have MMP. There’s no hiding.
Martyn, some good thinking. So much to consider. I have no crystal ball but Oct 2023 is not going to be replay of 2020, or for that matter 2017. I don’t mean Labour won’t have a chance of 3rd term – they may well, in coalition. 2020 saw a landslide majority and we all know why. There was only one issue to vote on. Those swing voters will be looking elsewhere this time. Chloe Swarbrick won Auckland Central by the skin of her teeth but that needs to be repeated. She was only the 2nd to do so and the first since 2002. Two electorate votes in 2023? A bold call. Simply getting above the 5% threshold won’t do much for the Greens. Rawhiri Waititi surprised Tamati Coffey in Wairaki but the Maori voice we’ve heard of late is arguably the Maori caucus within Labour. Even more support this time? Another bold call considering the current discourse around co-governance and the status given to He Puapua. ACT is a one-man show in Epsom but a good many swing voters may go this way. NZ First didn’t get a look in but there’s a faint possibility they’ll get over 5% this time. Or some wild, unpredictable, happening.
Can’t fully recall the details of 2017 but what I do remember is that it was a personality contest, and Jacinda won. Good move by Labour in the 11th hour! Luxton vs Hipkins? Nah, a passing comment at most. Oh yes, Winston was the kingmaker! But that won’t be playing out in the same way. Maori Party you say MB. Now wouldn’t that be interesting.
Yes, voters in 2023 will have greater opportunity to vote on issues, real or otherwise. No pandemic and no personality contest but still very much tribal bound by ‘class’, wealth and personal interest. Two ticks or a bob each way? And much more media noise, both social media and msm.
Come on Martyn, most of us aren’t allowed to push back on some of the Left’s hypocrisy, otherwise the country will descend into a race war? How about the Left start fronting up and owning their large contribution to the current mess.
I think it will be fairly difficult for Chippie to win after the last 2 weeks. The whole country knows that the Labour Party are currently as dodgy as a 2 bob watch. Nashie, OIA’s, Police institutional capture, All those pictures of Chippie, Ardern and the Greens with Shaneel and Eli.
They have destroyed the female vote but Chippie chose the rainbow vote over the swinging women votes so he will reap what he sews.
However, a lot can happen in 2 weeks in politics and Luxon is still the original Lame Duck. The sinker on the fishing line which I think is stopping them getting 10% of the vote and could go more as we get down to it.
I had a thought though which could shake things up a bit. Shane Jones was on the Platform the other day and said some cryptic shit about his future.
Then I wondered what if NZF and Act did some kind of power sharing agreement ahead of the election. Dont know if its even vaguely possible but I think they could end up being the dominant party to the Nats (or close to it) if that went ahead. Get David to be just a tad more moderate, NZF braking hard and its sellable to an electorate looking for something different. Esp to National voters.
The Muppet Show how apropos!
The greatest danger of identity Politics is that white cis men start seeing themselves as victims and appropriate the identity of victimhood.
Tell white cis males they are the problem long enough and they become the problem.
_________________
White cis men have more than started seeing themselves as victims, they’re actively proclaiming and portraying it…That horse has bolted.
Davidson didn’t start a culture war. She challenged who drew the battle lines and decided offense is the best form of defense.
In Aotearoa, the culture war started with the disingenuous promotion of Te Tiriti that consigned Maori, inclusive of Pasifikans, to perpetual inequality and poverty, unless they were willing to become the poor man’s reflection of a White cis male/WCM.
Many have since woke up to the problems of WCM traditional dominance of the cultural and political sphere.
Telling them they are the problem isn’t the problem. Their reluctance and refusal to accept they are is the problem.
We’re at a tipping point. It’s up to WCM to determine how they react. Violent rhetoric as a response to their historic dominance is no longer acceptable.
Moderate WCM need to get woke, back the truck up, own their shit and quietly shut the front door lest it gets slammed in their face and they find themselves locked out of the house by the radical, extreme, violence of the white cis male identity.
It’s entirely WCM choice to escalate a culture war they started…
“National and ACT want to amputate the State while Labour, Greens and Māori Party want to build State capacity!”
Labour just wants to build a bigger bureaucracy and do nothing.
The Greens want to build a giant, carbon neutral bonfire (Burning “cis white” Man?) and burn everything.
The Māori Party want to add a layer of Iwi-ocracy on top of Labour’s bigger bureaucracy.
National wants a more business compliant State (as if it isn’t compliant enough already).
ACT just wants a more streamlined State that doesn’t just burn money on useless vanity projects and Idiocracy.
Well reasoned opinion piece.
Such eloquence, accurately creating facts and summation of how NZers really, really feel.
All fitted together with great skill and brilliant use of satire.
There are a lot of undecided voters out there and you are doing more than practically anyone inspiring them. … maybe not everyone, there are just so many shooting themselves in the foot these days and then of course there are Fake News merchants.
Racist woke wankers to the left of me and self-centred rat fuckers to the right of me . .
I am always amazed and appalled at the policies those of you on the left demand. You despise the “rich” yet want them to subsidise the lifestyle of those who do not have the ambition to join them.
Long term, your policies lead to the degradation of a society and the “creep” of welfare instead of the creep of ambition.
Only one thing, long term, will improve a society and that is education yet it is the one thing that all labour governments have sought to destroy and are still doing to this day. Creating division in a society will not improve it and pitting us against each other will bring the whole castle down in the end.
Imagine an All Black coach creating divisions within his team between the brown and the white, the NZ born and the immigrant, the smarter and the dumber and those who know how to invest and those who only know how to spend?
Now imagine a government that has not only aspirations but the ability to allow those aspirations to be developed. Sadly it was not this current one and i despair for New Zealand that there will ever be one again now that those idealogical divisions have been driven so deep.
Education is the key. We don’t all have to rocket scientists but we can be taught to think.
Education, education, education. I think I’ve heard that before: the knowledge economy, widening participation in tertiary education, and all that. Oh, then we found out that the trades had been hollowed out and had to scramble for skilled overseas labour – we’re still scrambling. Not that I’m against encouraging thinking, especially of the critical kind.
I’m not advocating that we all become rocket scientists at all but all the older tradies that I know are pretty smart people and can certainly add without a calculator and write a decent quote.
We are seeing kids leaving school without those basic skills and zero ambition to better themselves other than by joining a gang or as a certain green mp says, “be gay, do crime”.
Now I’m not blaming labour, National, unions or the teachers at the coalface. I don’t care who is responsible we need to fix it and so far the only party that has offered a semblence of an education policy is National. Love it or hate it they at least accept there is a problem.l
Well said.
I think it was Orwell who said, “the left don’t so much as love the poor, is that they hate the rich”
The problem with that, is that anyone one with a dollar more than me is rich, and rather than be happy for them or look to see what they did to become a dollar wealthier than I, it’s far better to steal than dollar from them, why should they have it?…and the fella one dollar less richer than me is also looking at me with envious eyes!
Nice analysis Bomber,
My prediction is that voter turn out will be historically low, as NZ politics degrades further everyday into fringe American style toxic cultural wars many New Zealanders will tune out in disgust at the worst excesses of left and right.
When we are in an economic, housing, healthcare, cost of living and climate crisis and everyone is hurting but media, politicians and activists are screaming everyday about fringe issues that won’t help anyone justifying violence and silencing opponents instead of talking about how to fix NZ, what’s the point in voting.
The Greens are toast imo. Atleast 30% of their vote is white cis men and after Maramas speech, they’ll have huge problems retaining that vote, as well as the huge swaths of old school Feminists who vote Green, who’ll probably choose to sit this election out,
Chloe was already going to struggle to get reelected due to all the problems with downtown Auckland and the large numbers of asian and indian voters (who almost unanimously, despise identity politics) in that electorate plus labour fielding a candidate, I think nationals going to take this electorate and even if Chloe becomes leader she double downed and supported everything marama said so… I predict a 4% turn out for the greens and a term out of parliament unless they win Welly central.
Labour was going really well under Hipkins, it seemed he was more practical and street level day to day than Arderns lofty vision based politics, And he won points for throwing out the woke image of labour, that all went out the window when he refused to fire a minister for racism and misinformation at a mob justice protest. Had he fired her he’d have really impressed a lot of middle NZ, not firing her has pissed off working and middle NZ, the Nash thing is beltway and is terrible but what working class Maori, pakeha, indians and Asians are talking about is Marama. His caucus cheering in the mob is a terrible look.
I think national and labour will poll about equal.
I think NZ first is going to get a lot of silent voters from labour and has as good a chance at getting back into parliament as the greens.
I think the Maori party is going to get about 3% but cause an over hang of two seats.
I think top is a no show without a seat deal from national in ilam (which is the bluest of the blue apart from 2020) or peter dunnes old seat.
I think act is going to get between 14-18 seats. A lot of people voting ACT think it’s an anti immigration party and a populist party when it’s just undiluted Rodger/ruthnomics and if NZF is able to really hammer act on its unlimited immigration policies, NZf could get some of that populist vote.
I think last Saturday killed the left. I think a national/act or national/act/NZf govt is likely.
I think a national/act govt with greens outside of parliament for a term reinventing themselves might be the best thing that ever happened to the left because the unadulterated vicious class war that a national/act govt will wage on NZ will be deeply unpopular and see poor, working class and middle NZ unite in rage we haven’t seen in this country for nearly a century and the labour party, will have to talk about class and left wing populist economic policies rather than identity and visions.
A Nat/act govt will hurt people but it may actually be what destroys neoliberalism and gets the lefts head out of the fucking sand
Excellent I 100% agree with all you have said.
Winston Peters NZF is going to be 10% + on the night. Just watch. He’s the only skilled politician and Kiwis are sick of this cultural Marxist rubbish.
TeTuiTeka – Correct
NZ First has never hit 10%.
You are both delusional.
Maybe not 10% but over the 5% – lots of the blue rinse brigade don’t care what he’s saying as long he’s anti left and on the telly.
How will you get more doctors by taxing them more?
I’ve done numbers:
National 47
Labour 27
Act 16
Greens 2
Nz1 6
Other….
Accurate scientific prediction!
The Kraut goes Wild – Looks good
No way in hell the Nats under Luxon will poll 47%.
Thanks Bob,I’m surprised you don’t have Nats on 90
We should be voting first and foremost for the climate change – the best policy is Te Pati Maori and I have joined and will support them as much as possible.
The other big issues for me are child poverty ABSOLUTE FAILURE BY LABOUR, and health which is appalling.
Martyn I enjoy reading your comments but wonder what your thoughts are based on . They sound good but as with many ideas fall down when you look at putting them into action
Free public transport great idea but only the larger city have public transport and there is an enormous difficulty in finding drivers. 1000 bus trip cancelled in Auckland on Friday alone .In Chch my friends child has been late for school many times and one night 3 buses did not come on the way home plus many people are too afraid to go to the bus exchange for fear of being robed or beaten up.
Free dentists.Where are the numbers needed to allow this to happen because even with the high cost it takes me weeks to get an appointment even for a check up ($120 for 15 mins)
Tax the rich sounds good but surgeons who are desperately needed could fall into this bracket along with the better managers that give NZ a leading edge in some areas
I think that unless the government completely b*ggers up the cyclone rebuild/recovery the Labour Party will go back.
Henry – maybe you havent noticed the various public meetings being held and the fact that the Govt has turned its back on most dirt poor people in rural Hawkes Bay/Gizzy. There are still villages out there today with no roads, no water, no toilets, no electricity and no comms.
And then you had Stuart Nash saying we cant bring in the Army because that makes it look like the Govt is failing.
I guess the people in the villages think the Govt is failing.
Not that many votes in rural Hawkes Bay/Gizzy.
Hmm, kind of think you got it right there. Only one thing you got wrong. David Seymour won’t rewrite the treaty, he’ll just burn them, and replace them with nothing.
I am now identifying as a white CIS male now. I have always been a lefty but was a swinging voter with my party vote. But what marama has said has stung me to the core. After nearly 50 years of faithful labour party loyalty I called into question about my affiliation to labour because it was my father and mothers to vote for party. I would have carried on but labour the left and the woke has put me right off them.
Now marama davidson says that I am a white cis male and a class enemy. so be it I and plenty other white cis males I am surewill vote act with our party and seat vote come polling day and may everyone reap the whirlwind.
I have finally had enough.
Forgetting all the ‘poor me WCM victimhood’ because one brown women called your culture out on global violence.
What does it mean to be a class enemy ?
If you’re a white cis male, you are only allowed to vote for ACT (unless you own at least 5 rental properties, then you can vote National). If you try to vote any other way, Marama will stab you in the testicle, in a completely non-violent way (as it is impossible for anyone other than white cis males to commit violence). Don’t risk it, vote sensibly & safely, vote ACT.
I’m quite worried about the increased possibility of domestic terrorism, especially as I just realized that my local supermarket has weapons of mass destruction on sale. Should I inform the SIS?
https://www.newworld.co.nz/shop/product/5005351_ea_000nw?name=juice-kitchen-premium-tomato-juice