BOOM: New Taxpayers’ Union Poll puts Labour on Top but Greens in danger of falling below 5%



Labour is back on top in the latest Taxpayer’s Union Poll

Labour – 35.5%

National – 34.8%

ACT – 9.3%

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Greens – 5.7%

NZF – 4.2%

Māori Party – 1.4%

For the first time in a year, Labour has taken the lead on 35.5% up 1.1 points on last month while National is on 34.8% up 0.4 points on last month. 

ACT is down 2.4 points to 9.3% while the Greens have dropped 2.1 points to 5.7%. This is perilously close to the 5% threshold for getting seats in Parliament (unless Chlöe Swarbrick can hold onto her Auckland Central electorate).

New Zealand First, on the other hand, sees a boost of 1.3 points to 4.2% – within striking distance of re-entering Parliament. The Māori Party is on 1.4 per cent – down 0.7 points – and will again have to rely on holding at least one electorate to get any list seats.

Other smaller parties were the New Conservatives on 2.5% (+1.7 points), TOP on 1.7% (-0.3 points), Vision NZ on 0.8% (+0.6 points) and Democracy NZ on 0.5% (-0.4 points).

Chippy’s move from ideology to delivery, from social justice to economic justice and his competence with the storms are all giving Labour strength, but as TDB has been warning, the Greens are in trouble and their alienating identity politics is coming home to roost.

ACT will be disappointed to lose their double digit shine while NZFirst are hovering at the threshold.

Look at these favourability numbers for Chippy…

…even National voters like him!

I’ve previously argued that Chippy was connecting with Kiwis on a deep level…

Chippy’s leadership has been helped immensely by Wayne Brown’s train wreck interview during the Auckland Anniversary Flooding and the enormity of the challenge in front of us post Gabrielle demands a practicality that Chippy exudes.

…I’ve also argued the Greens are in trouble politically

The lack of policy traction, the total capitulation to alienating woke dogma and identity politics activists talking over all the internal mechanisms of candidate election and policy control sees the Greens stall and they might actually get less than the polled in 2020.

…after the Greens changed their leadership rules to push males out, why would any self respecting left wing man vote Green? Woke activists are always identifiably Green, so when they cancel they make enemies, not recruits.

It is going to be a crazy and wild election.

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    • Gullible? Or those that believe in a better future for New Zealand. One nation, one people, one leader!

    • In recent years Labour has been the most racist party in NZ, plenty of gullible still supporting it.

    • None of ACT’s policies stand up to any serious scrutiny!

      Once the media really start to drill down into the detail and ask the vacuous “now your putting words in my mouth”,(que goofy grimace), Seymour, for his quid pro quo cost ramifications and the obsequious Brooke van Velden to show some proven working projections, it’s going to be a long painful compaign for them.

      Popcorn anyone !!

      • Grant thank you for that interpretation of the ACT “gruesome twosome” its about time the media highlighted David Seymour’s absolute nonsensical questions at question time in parliament , a complete waste of taxpayers money. Did he even acknowledge the disaster that affected almost half the north island. No he went politicking down to Christchurch. Its also about time this blog acknowledged their failings. They have almost become cult heroes on this blog getting space and airtime they don’t deserve. The ACT party has been proven over time as a dangerous entity in both climate denial and the covid pandemic response. At the end of the day this smart arse little man could be in government and that’s a frightening thought.

        • Totally agree.
          He is as big a mystery as John Key , Jenny Shipley, Paula Bennett , Ruth Richardson and now Luxon as to why they were /are allowed anywhere near the Beehive.
          Of course the answer to that conundrum is money!!

          Money and corruption are never far away from each other. That’s why the human species is on a rapid trajectory to extinction.

    • Strange that Act can be labelled a racist party when it’s leader has Maori heritage? Or are you thinking of the Maori Party?

      • The leader who does not acknowledge Maori as needing the most assistance to the degree Seymour does not want the Maori Party to exist. Yes Seymour and Act are racist.

  1. As the climate becomes worst Greens drop in appeal as people reconize that a serious problem needs a party more concerned in getting results and less on making sure no one is offended by anyone else .

  2. Wow these are horrible results for every party and are only bolstered by redistributing the 9.7% wasted votes.

    No disaster boost for an incumbent govt is shocking. Chris Hipkins best rule in or rule out three waters and fast and stop talking in circles about it because his honeymoon may end up being as short lived as a Kim Kardashian marriage.

    Imagine what this graph would look like if NZ first vote wasn’t wasted.

    Greens should be in panic mode, these numbers entitle them to only six seats and they usually overpoll compared to election results.

    Labour and national are within the margin of error and National is actually starting to sound like a government in waiting while Labour just defends everything going wrong with the country.

    Hipkins appealed when he looked like he was anti woke but a month in he hasn’t done anything to differentiate himself from the previous prime minister apart from say New Zealand. He needs to step up.

    I was not expecting National to start bashing the banks and corporate consultants and health system chaos while offering cheaper childcare while Labour defends dysfunction and the status quo.

    Seymour is sitting pretty.

    The Maori party will probably earn an electorate two extra and cause an overhang.

    Winston at 4.2% is back in parliament and that changes the seat number of every party.

    A national/act govt is likely but a national/NZ first govt supported by act is starting to look just as likely as a Labour/green/Maori govt (which is increasingly unlikely)

    If I were national I’d be tempted to give NC not an electorate deal but just not run a candidate in a safe blue seat for NC to win, they’d bring in three seats and I’d give top an electorate deal, they’d bring in two seats.

    Labour and the Greens best up their game. Now. A third term is becoming more unlikely every day and now they may have to fight like hell just to save the furniture, doubly so for the greens (though they could benefit from losing some of their furniture)

  3. Mostly margin of error stuff but mainly a few voters going back from greens to Labour.
    1% for Labour is a disappointing new leader bounce, one of the smaller ones in NZ history.
    NZ First threatening to be viable which will be interesting

  4. National + ACT = 44.1%
    Labour + Green + Maori = 41.1%

    So the center right ahead by 3% and we are looking at a massive wasted vote on this poll which will spark discussion about lowering the 5% threshold and leave a good chunk of the electorate not represented in parliament

  5. NZ First will easily get above 5%, if they are 4,% already. The country will be over joyed to have them as Kingmaker again.

  6. BOOM??? What’s BOOM about this? A bit of over exitement I guess. The only thing that’s BOOM is your dream going bust of TPM being the Kingmakers…dream on.

    • The BOOM !! is that Luxon and National have peaked at 38% and are now on the way down …

      The momentum is all going the wrong way for him and his cronies heading into the election and looking at that pathetic, cliched, uninspiring speech he gave the other day finishing with an inauthentic wiggly smile, he’s got nothing to offer, (except paraphrasing Trump that he is going to ‘drain the swamp’ and give tax cuts to to the richest most privileged), and he knows it.

      Out of his depth! He talks about running a country like it’s a business. How naive can you get.
      They had Erica Stanford , (one of their supposed ‘rising stars’) on T.V the other morning, whose answer to not having electric rail in Auckland from the city to airport, was up and coming new technology like driverless cars and flying drones. None of any have been proven to be viable means of working satisfactorily on any scale let alone transporting thousands of people a day. But there it is! That’s their policy!!

      Their idiocy is breathtaking and there for all to see and they are to get seriously exposed come election time.
      All those millions that people have donated……. Squandered!!

      • Thank you once again Grant. Christopher Luxon is thick. He couldn’t even be let out on his own after his “ big “ policy announcements. I have said that from the very beginning. New Zealand is a country ( warts and all ) not a business. In a business you can get made redundant, sacked etc. etc. No room for bottom feeders in his world, no room for women as decision makers as per his christian tenet. ( the little wife at home in the kitchen). No room for the disenfranchised, just lock them up and throw away the key. I am hoping that people are beginning to see them for what they truly are and only the rich people they represent.

    • Kraut, TPM will do a lot better than the polls suggest. Especially polls run by a white bread conservative grass roots astroturf “think tank” who conveniently forget that Maori even exist.

      • No-one suggests (other than you) that Curia is not highly skilled in doing political polls that reflect actual voter intentions. Curia has an extremely good track record in being close to the actual result.

        • The Curia polls are accurate for the main parties, however like all the pollsters they consistently get minor parties wrong. NZ First are always underpolled, greens overpolled, and as I stated TPM are going to get auch better result than the Curia poll suggests.

  7. It would be nice to see Chloe making use of the fact that she’s the only thing standing between the neoliberal scum who make up every other Greens officeholder and total electoral annihilation to push them to promote decent economic policies which help normal New Zealanders instead of bankers.

    I’m not holding my breath.

  8. We are heading to be a true blue Pacific Islands….How long will it be until we get loans from China that we can never pay back, aid from Australia and the IMF , and the few that stay will be classified as ex-pats on 12 month visas….Vote Labour…What could go wrong…???

  9. Boom? Whimper more like. Anyone for a wager thin margin. Also are the Greens heading out the back door?

    • If it’s a whimper, why are you believing the poll results for the Greens? Is Act heading out the back door?

      • ACT at 9.5 are quite secure into making it.
        Greens at 5.7 will certainly not feel secure about anything.

          • So you do understand the difference between a “Boom!” and a whimper. Congratulations on a reasonable pay rise, definitely better than many got..

            • Thanks and just proves how horribly wrong you are, again, about what is a boom and a whimper.

      • ACT will be steering the ship in the way the Greens could have never managed. Labour’s ship is sinking, and they are busy rearranging the deckchairs. The Greens might go down with Labour’s ship, trapped in steerage, still trying to cancel each other, and everyone else.

        • Here’s to you Mrs Robinson have they raised Nationals and Acts titanic corpse yet, it appears not.

  10. 50000 unhappy teachers on strike next Thursday will show a light on how well Hipkins ran his ministry. Faulty figures from hospital reporting shows this lot cannot be trusted . The slow action in getting the problems caused by Grabrielle is starting to cause more complaint re the inaction of this government. Policy is starting to come from National and bit is being received favourably by voters .The next poll will be a game changer.

    • National are organising a poll here in Hawkes Bay to try and make Nash include our region in the “inquiry” into forestry slash and it has caught people’s attention. I’ve never voted Nat in my life but I signed the petition. I think you’ll find they have done their research and Labour are wide open to damaging attacks like this – no matter how good Chippie is Labour have shot themselves in both feet and the opposition will make the most of the opportunity. I despair.

    • Trevor do you how can you justify your comments about a slow response to the biggest national disaster the country has ever experienced. I hear they are still rebuilding Christchurch and how long has that been . The teachers have been offered a good offer ( note the actual figures haven’t been published) I know what they are. The policy from National is based on shifting sands they have not been costed, they are wanting to cut consultants at a time when New Zealand needs them the most. Christopher Luxon is not allowed out on his own because he stuffs up all the time . Christopher Luxon called his consultants “ support people “ so good luck with him and his so called popular policies.

    • I’d suggest Nationals drop and Labours gain is not on the back of Nationals “good policy”.

    • I’d suggest Nationals drop and Labours gain is not on the back of Nationals “good policy”.

  11. Bigly shame I don’t really like popcorn.
    I think maybe we’re going to have to wait till October before the political class get a grip of themselves. Unfortunately if it all goes tits up because the political class failed to do so, the electricate might also have to get off their chuffs and resend the message.
    The thing that worries me is that the longer the political class fails to respond to electricate’s perception of reality, the more violent the outcome they wish for will be achieved.
    Diddums. Cudda Shudda Wudda. Running on the failed religious ideology that is the economic orthodoxy of the past near 40 years ……… we’ll have get gotten what we deserve

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