The Political Right punditry have been freaked out by the latest Polls showing a surge in Labour, this is very difficult for the punditry because they had already popped all the champagne bottles after sleep walking National to victory.
They are already claiming that this is just a leadership bump for Labour and they will still win.
Nonsense.
The surge is because the manner in which Jacinda was hounded out of Office sparked a backlash amongst swing voters against those types of tactics and because ultimately the electorate still want the transformational policies they voted for in 2017, not the rich prick policies of ACT and National.
There’s another reason to be sceptical of the Right winning in October because as the last election showed us, the mainstream polls overstated National and understated Labour support…
As Labour’s trend in the polls since mid-2020 was already downward, 45% looked plausible. But predictions based on the opinion polls were significantly wrong. Labour’s election result was 50%, National’s only 25.6%.
The polls in the final fortnight were overestimating National by an average of 5.8 percentage points. They were underestimating Labour by 3.7 points. The Green and Māori parties were also underestimated (1.1 and 0.7 points, respectively).
There were even bigger failures in polls showing Green candidate Chlöe Swarbrick running third in Auckland Central with about 25% of the vote. Instead, she got 35% and won the seat.
…the political momentum is with the Left and it is up to us as left wing supporters to demand Labour + Green + Māori Party do something transformative on economic justice rather than allow the middle class woke identity activists to drag us down a social justice ideological cul-de-sac where we end up championing land rights for gay whales.
The woke Wellington Twitter activists alienated Left wing voters, let’s not allow them to do that again.
The sudden snatching of defeat from the jaws of victory from the Right however is about to unleash a tsunami of frustrated hate from those who despised Jacinda and expect that to fuel a terrible radioactivity in what is already a toxic debate.
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You are looking at a hung parliament. I would not call that Labour winning.
It would be another Julia Gillard administration — a leader nobody particularly likes, unable to come up with any policies that are actually popular, leading a zombie government just waiting to be put out of its misery.
Of course what followed was a merry-go-round of hopeless Tory prime ministers, also with no real popularity to speak of, who kept getting sacked. Luxon & Co. are on track to repeat that sorry take also.
Interviwing the crystal ball again?
@ rb . I’m reading your feeble attempt to derail focus from the reality-narrative. We’ve all had enough of the kind of logical fallacies espoused by Machiavellian Confederates such as yourself, but don’t go away, we all need a laugh in these heady times.
And that, is THE problem actually. Douglas’s dirty deeds set loose a disaster of trust. Good people could no longer trust Labour so where were they to turn? To National and how desperate they must have felt then. After dirty, dodgy, Roger Rat ( No disrespect to actual rats.) fled the Labour Party after mercilessly demonising it then gutting our country of our taxes-paid-for assets for his now nine multi billionaires to greedily feast on we’re slowly, ever so slowly learning he also stole away with our trust and is our trust returning?
Thirty eight years later an entire generation of AO/NZ’ers only know mistrust of THEIR politicians.
I’m bitterly critical of Adern for not opening up a Post Roger dialogue with us. Why? Was it because she couldn’t trust us to react in a reasonable and stately fashion? Probably not, come to think of it. People tend to react passionately when they come to realise they’ve all been fucked without the kissing.
The Kiwi version of neoliberalism fiasco was entirely right wing and the way the now nine multi billionaires used Trojan Horse tactics in the shape and form of a small moustache wearing a nasty little creature who sold us a deadly idea about how greed was good is now old and close to death while our kids carry the can and it’s no longer a fucking secret Aye Boys?
When you struggle to pay your power bill, your phone bill, your internet bill, your rent, your mortgage, for your food, your fuel etc etc, think of Roger Rat back in 1984 and ask yourself, is it safe to vote for National, AKA ACT, AKA neoliberal labour, the carcass Natzo maggots have been burrowing through for nearly forty years.
It is a hung parliament. No wins for anyone.
You keep banging on about Roger Douglas coubtryboy, the obsession is a bit of a worry. Do you have his picture on your dartboard or in your wallet? Roger Douglas gets the blame for the 80’s reforms but it was Treasury driving it. Their ‘Economic Management: Briefing to the Incoming Government’ in 1984 was the driving force of the deregulation and opening of the economy. Wouldn’t have mattered who the finance Minister was, the beauracracy was driving the changes.
Roger Douglas was just a result of the wider Neo-Conservative movement happening around the Western World at the time that started with Thatcher and Reagan. We were bound to get coerced/forced into this new ideology sooner or later and almost every country eventually did. “Rogernomics” was NOT exclusive to New Zealand but rather a wider systemic policy, and we definitely didn’t vote for it.
Roger douglas ruined a lot of things. He caused chaotic competition in education and destroyed an excellent system. Lange was too weak to stop Douglas and Prebble with their ludicrous right wing act ideologies.We are still recovering from their criminal actions.
These ongoing articles on poll results and the responses make me laugh. They are breathlessly announced like holy writ coming down from the Mount but will likely be meaningless in terms of what happens in October. But, depending on poster’s tribal allegiances, each will either be written off as an aberration or seized on as proof of a new dawn.
The reality is – most voters don’t follow sites like this, don’t get involved with political parties and discourses and will vote primarily on self-interest. Contrary to Martyn’s assertion – Ardern’s popularity dropping was largely not the result of some toxic campaign – it was because she didn’t deliver. I know many who voted Labour who were gutted at the lack of help for those at the bottom while the likes of banks and supermarkets have profited. And contrary to a lot of statements I’ve read on the blog – the harshest critics of Ardern that I’ve personally heard are not old white boomers (most I know were besotted with her including one staunch National voter who switched allegiance because of her) but younger and middle-aged women.
If Hipkins does do a reset of 3 waters, co-governance etc, how is that going to play out with the Maori MPs. There are many unknowns that could impact on an election result.
The question I’d ask of posters to this blog is – Do you really think a Labour/Greens/Maori Party – and whatever else or a National/Act/Maori Party coalition is going to make a major difference to the issues and inequality that exists? If a party that has had a clear majority can’t enact transformational change then what hope for a 3 way (or more) coalition? The only difference is that the first option will likely spend the first year having endless meetings trying to get a consensus whereas the latter would likely come up with some actions – be they good or bad -a lot sooner and be a bit more pragmatic.
Unfortunately, most of what happens in NZ is determined by the banks, large business and government agencies – especially the professional managerial class, certainly not by those at the coalface. And any proposals will then get sent out to external consultants to spend millions on, writing reports that will lead nowhere.
Like the US, NZ has 2 main parties that essentially are the same, keep business as usual while pursuing vanity projects and sometimes hidden agendas but their underlying way of running things is little different. Their social agendas can vary a bit but essentially the people at the bottom are still treated the same. All we get is tinkering around the edges. Which means that NZ is ripe for some new messiah like Trump to make an impact as people realise their votes at present are meaningless in terms of creating any change that will result in any measurable improvement in their personal circumstances. Maybe not this election but in the future unless there is significant change.
“hung” is that like Ze Beeg Sauzage?…
Little realized Labour would not win with him as leader, stood down and Adern emerged as a breath of fresh air. She came to the same conclusion and now we have Hipkins. Hopefully he can form a capable Cabinet, develop meaningful policies and achieve tangible results before October. Then I won’t have to protest vote Te Pati Maori.
Ardern was a liability to Labour.
There is a huge disconnect between the PMC and the everyday people that make up the electorate.
This is the real message here.
Labour acted very late. But they acted to stem a crisis that became undeniable.
WN, Just in time then?
Is it possible that Luxon’s belligerent dog whistle attack on co-governance and the Maori health authority was too much for NZ voters who, in large part, are not opposed to uplifting Maori communities and voices?
Is it also possible that we have moved beyond falling for that particular dog whistle and NActionals strategists have over-estimated it’s effectiveness on the NZ public? I hope so. That would restore my faith in humanity at least in NZ.
Before you become too optimistic regarding race relations in NZ/Ao check out the reaction to the suggestion of changing the name of Maxwell and of the plan for a settlers (only) day in Kimbolton.
they live among us – you only have to peruse a few social media sites to see that Labour haven’t caused division – they’ve exposed it.
polls are useless why do you bother?…it’s at the level of sports reporting.
Gaga, ooh is it really? I’d love to punt on it… TAB doesn’t do it… you know someone?
Overheard in a supermarket queue: ‘The prime minister should have hair. Look at Jacinda’s beautiful hair.’
Did they say anything about ginger hair?
Draw a line down the middle of ginger hair, it’s still ginger hair. Draw a line down the middle of someone with no hair and they become an arsehole. I rest my case.
Just wait until the next round of deck chair rearranging is done, then Labour will be back on track for another glorious victory!
Jacinda was a celebrity politician who was good for the party and the country for a period of time when both was needed during the bleak time of covid .As her popularity dropped her and the party realized her time was up .I find it hard to believe the whole change over was not totally planned . I know nothing about the backroom of Labour but that is just my feeling and as an ex salesman know how to present an offer to the clients that looks good (in this case the client is the swing voter)
Trevor, so what if it was tentatively planned? If so, more kudos to Labour for pulling it off quietly.
Gillard’s govt was one of the most effective(in terms of getting stuff done) in recent memory. They may have had a shelf life, but they certainly weren’t zombies awaiting the coup de Gras.
Nickolas, relevance? This is NZ not AU
In my opinion Chris Hipkins has the potential to be a good PM however he won’t be able to impliment any socialist policies that cost money because there is none. He will tend to backtrack on existing policy to avoid becoming unpopular so will be a soft version of Luxon. Left voters who want a left government even if they are a right government won’t mind, but any real lefty will get nothing but disappointment. As the year progresses and the Auckland bill adds to our indebtedness the budget in May will be more about austerity than good social outcomes. A hung parliament is no good to anyone even though labour will see it as a win NZ will lose. Luxon has the potential to do a bit better but he gets the same budget income. The NZ public have had enough of printing money for the wrong people so there’s no happiness for anyone that I can see. This is not even taking into consideration those who will lose their homes to the banks and their jobs to recession. Sorry to spoil everyones day.
If Labour are serious about winning the election via their Cabinet reshuffle, their number 1 priority needs to be replacing Andrew Little as Minister of Health with Ayesha Verrall.
Andrew Little was a terrible choice for their role but they couldn’t elevate a first term MP into such an important role. That has since changed. Andrew Little was an unpopular leader of the Labour Party and the way he has disrespected medical professionals across NZ has been shocking to witness. He comes across as extremely arrogant and a bully. He has to go. Verrall has shown herself to be extremely competent without even a hint of arrogance. Labour simply can’t afford to press on with the worst Minister of Health I’ve ever witnessed. He makes Jonathan Coleman look like he was an excellent Minister of Health when he very obviously wasn’t.
Your wish has been granted Thinking Man!
Yes great move by Chippie. Verrall has already shown she’s got the goods. Little although he had the brain didn’t admit to any of his failures and was and is an AH. In my righty opinion.
FWIW, I’ve always liked Andrew Little. He’s not naturally skilled for front of house verbal, but I still have huge respect for him, and trust. I also hope he can get stuff done. Go Andrew!
Sinic,
Many people believe John Key was the second coming….while a meaningful number were adamant he was the antichrist. It’s common for different people to view the same thing / person in a completely different way. I for example detest Andrew Little. Any respect I once had for him has long since vanished.
He should never have been Labour leader. He has zero charisma and always appears “disconnected”. When he did become leader via his Union Support in November 2014 even blind Freddy could see Labour would be going nowhere. He relentlessly showed nothing in the polls. Had he remained Labour leader for 20 years that would be a guaranteed 20 years Labour would be in opposition. His obvious plan always appeared to be offering zero and hoping he’d become PM via Kiwi’s turning on John Key. This never occurred even for a millisecond. NZ continued on it’s track under National while Andrew Little selfishly held the Labour leadership role. Even when John Key resigned as PM in December 2016 Andrew Little still didn’t improve at all in the polls. Little should have resigned in early 2017 but he selfishly stayed on convinced Bill English would have limited appeal and his plan to become PM via default would succeed. He finally saw the writing on the wall in August 2017 and fell on his sword only weeks out from election day. These were not the actions of a man of honour. It was more a selfish man who’s backbone melted and he threw the towel in regardless of consequence to Labour and NZ. The moment Ardern became Labour leader you immediately had droves of Labour Party supporters wake from their slumber and voted with their dosh. Had it been anyone other than Ardern, Labour would not become Government under the circumstances Andrew Little dumped on them. His were not the actions of a man worthy of respect. He should have resigned 18 months before he finally did. Had he done so he would have shown himself as an unselfish man of integrity.
His role as the Pike River Minister highlighted a man who would say anything and just postpone failure. This became his modus operandi and still is. He’s viewed with contempt by many on the West Coast. He was their best mate and fed them hope despite there being compelling evidence there was no hope. He played politics with families that had already paid an extremely high price and then the moment it suited him he dropped truckloads of excrement on them and walked away. Contemptable so “Go Andrew” became very appropriate words for West Coasters….only with the words “fuck yourself’ tucked between Go and Andrew.
I witnessed his appalling performance as Minister of Heath from day one. I have multiple senior health professionals in my family and circle. The way he treated them both in actions and his words was appalling. There was routinely a high level of arrogance on display and even to the point of attempting to bully these highly experienced health professionals into submission. I witnessed first hand the contempt he displayed for the Nurses Organization. It became clear he had a personal agenda and hated those that had the audacity to go up against him. Had he yielded to demands on behalf of all NZ nurses and do the right thing he clearly felt it would be a victory for an organization he despised.
Our hospitals are now in crisis but Little still refused to admit it. Instead he arrogantly claimed all the ill timed and ill advised changes just needed time to take effect. This of course is total bullshit and nothing more than Andrew Little postponing epic failure….as always.
I rate him a clear 0/10 in everything he’s attempted as a Minister. The only area he’s lead the way with is by being “unavailable for comment” more than all other Ministers combined. That is the status quo for Andrew Little when yet another of his fails is highlighted. Ironically, it appears he is always available for what he perceives as a photo opportunity.
Thanks Thinking Man, your comment landed and has made me think back. I’d forgotten he was minister for Pike River – that was awful. They should have gone in at some stage. I recall there were even volunteers.
I wasn’t aware of how Andrew Little treated people in person. He’s always given me a “nice but no nonsense uncle” vibe from the TV, busy busy in the background getting stuff done. That’s how he comes across to me. I see I may be wrong.
I thought he didn’t get interviewed much because he’s not popular. Makes more sense now, the way you tell it.
I don’t know anyone in healthcare, so thanks for your insights. I’ve been waiting to see what he does with the health reforms. Perhaps he won’t deliver on that either. I do hope Hipkins government gets something chunky and meaningful over the line this year. Health sector reform would be a massive tick.
I’m a bit sad that my impression of Andrew Little may be wrong. He was my under dog MP who I liked to cheer on. No matter, I can adopt another 🙂
No politician admits to their failures, I thought you were better than that NV.
I stand corrected. Of course you are right, and most say things are being put right when they’re not. Little made that an art form.
All I’m saying is … Winston Peters.
Watch and learn.
Yeah we have already, for many decades now. He’s had his time.
My prediction is that Chris Vs. Chris is not going to fare any better for the political right of this country than Chris Vs. Jacinda.
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