Boom – the new Roy Morgan is out and it shows neck and neck race between the National/ACT block and the Labour/Green block!
Labour – 29%
Greens – 15.5%
National – 32%
ACT – 12.5%
NZ First – 3.5%
TOP – 3%
Māori Party – 3%
Luxon continues to flounder as an unauthentic leader, NZ First and TOP rise.
With the 2023 election now being so close, Labour must again look to using MMP dynamics strategically and tactically to ensure they can win.
To that end, Jacinda should consider using the same tactic that National and ACT do in Epsom and have electorate coffee dates to let Labour voters know who to electorate vote to maximise the MMP dynamics for a win in 2023.
Waiariki – If the Māori Party gain more electorate seats than party vote, they generate an MMP overhang that makes it far more difficult for the Right to win a Parliamentary majority. Retaining Waiariki and picking up two more electorate seats would be essential for this.
Tāmaki Makaurau – Peeni Henry has already intimated he would prefer to be on the list than run in this electorate, John Tamihere would clean up if Jacinda had a coffee with him.
Te Tai Hauāuru – It is tradition for the Speaker to step down from an electorate and be on the list only, Adrian Rurawhe has yet to make that decision, but if he did, a coffee between Jacinda and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer would win it for her, which if taken alongside Wairiki and Tāmaki Makaurau would give the Māori Party 3 electorate seats and they are likely to win sub 3% Party vote thus creating an overhang.
Ilam – This is where it gets interesting. Gerry has stepped down from the electorate (he is fancying his chances as Speaker in the next Parliament) so if Jacinda had a coffee with Raf Manji from TOP and directed Labour voters to electorate vote him and he wins, he would also bring in MPs using the coat tail dynamic meaning TOP wouldn’t have to get over the 5% threshold.
At this stage a Labour/Green/Māori Party/TOP Government is the only chance for the political progress on the big economic issues we need.
A National/ACT Government would be the most right wing since Roger Douglas while NZ First’s inclusion would just be another 3 years of hand breaks for Labour.
It’s time to use MMP strategically using the very tactics National and ACT have used for decades in Epsom.
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“Labour/Green/Māori Party/TOP…” You forgot to thrown in the kitchen sink!
Dont put it past them. They will promise Winnie the Kitchen sink as well if it suits them.
Fantail Indeed, the WEF’s ‘Great Reset’ now being played out enables anything, but Winston Peters isn’t a fool, and hopefully he probably isn’t the sort of sociopath who’d go along with their controlling anti-sovereign state agenda.
I do agree that a National/Act coalition government would be right wing, although I do feel as well that this isn’t an altogether negative thing.
Labour are getting old and tired. What vision they’ve had has died. It’s not just because of covid-19. It’s because governments rise and fall.
Of course Jacinda Ardern deserves a third parliamentary term but does she really want a third term?
The mainstream media have conjured up imagery of Ardern as a populist leader but have always undermined her intellect. That’s my opinion anyway. As for Chris Luxon, they the mainstream media appear to be doing the same to him at the moment.
I don’t think that the 2023 general election is going to be as close as this poll suggests. In political terms, the 2023 general election is still a long way off. Labour have got one more major budget that they’re going to absolutely nail National with!! It’s not going to be a merciful slaying either.
“Labour are getting old and tired”, and so is the ancient meme you mindlessly repeat.. You actually give a great example of why it is so important to keep the two dimensional, reactionary, cretins away from what little we still own.. It’s become obvious that those who still cling to exploitation economics like it’s some sort of economic rationalism have no grasp of how a healthy society is supposed to work.. Earth to colonial cling ons… British economics don’t work unless there are enough bodies to feed the machine.. Isn’t it time we started thinking for ourselves, and stopped pining for the Empire to come back and save us from the rabble?, when the rabble is our own “betters”?
I actually support Jacinda Ardern and the Labour party.
Newshub poll was rogue poll in my mind Lynch Bridge and Chan Green showed there true colors Act and National Government is what they want.
Jenna tilts well to the left as does Chan Green. Bridge does tilt right but very cenralist.
Completely wrong, all right leaning.
Labour are eroding all their political capital and will be destroyed for the next 15 years after losing in 2023. We need to vote for anyone but Labour. A three or four party coalition would be weak but there would be checks and balances and maybe more asking before doing.
A majority government cannot be trusted in the modern age of deceit, secrecy and lying. I can’t stand the sight or sound of JA.
Right let’s all vote for an evangelical rich dude and someone who promises to make todays social problems look like a pinic, because Magit can’t stand Ardern and sounds perilously close to donning a tinfoil fascinator
Yes although the sight of Magit adjusting its antenna and repositioning its magnets to block Ardern would be a sight to behold Wheel.
I think the best government was Labour/NZ First/Greens because they cancelled each other out.
I agree majority governments are becoming dangerous as they seem more likely to go off on ideological journeys and refuse to listen to the public.
We had rogernomics, now they are back with privitising state house land with Kiwibuild, more NZ assets sold off shore than ever before, cancelling biological woman and language, having Stasi hate crime police, the largest mass immigration levels per capita in the world just like the Natz, and now NZ is a mess with low wages, crime everywhere, professionals and experts leaving being replaced by mountains of idiots everywhere (someone was saying that ministry of education staff has doubled from 2000 to 4000, at the same time our education is fast going down the toilet with more and more kids illiterate, innumerate and mentally ill with all the woke shit they have to endure). Everywhere there is dysfunction, related to increased head counts at the top, Kainga Ora, Auckland council, health care the list goes on. Remember 1000 monkeys can’t create Shakespeare (also cancelled for kids by creative NZ – you don’t need that shit in your minimum waged job, woke government manger or dole which seems to be the go to aspirations, for NZ future careers).
https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/luxon-misspoke-by-saying-national-would-keep-government-s-ev-discount-scheme/ar-AA149BEM?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=bd3b7b610d3040b4b01ff77e44721180
Lying is the new misspealing. Good luck with your new leader Magit. How do you know when Chris is lying…his lips move.
Anyone with a heart capable of breaking cannot vote Labour or any party that might prolong its hypocrisy of caring.
“Anyone with a heart capable of breaking cannot vote National or the ACT parties that might prolong its hypocrisy of caring.”
I don’t feel as though Labour are eroding their political capital any more than what National are!
Meh. Same shit different smell. Sack em all.
Self-serving rat fuckers to the right of us and useless woke losers to the left of us with hard working Kiwis stuck in the middle.
Sad but true JB.
Boom – whatevs. I’m still not voting Labour again.
I am in Ilam electoral area. Those that voted for Labour have been let down and I doubt if they will, be tempted by another gamble .Raf will be tainted as a Labour want to be as he was close to Dalzell. National is standing a strong candidate and with the expect swing to National will get into power.
Labour has 4 Chch members but we do not get any favours from them being at the table and I think they will lose at least 2 of those seats if matters do not change.
15.5% for the Greens seems optimistic.
a coalition with L/G/TPM/Top would not last 5 minutes.
But according to this scenario L is being saved by G with 15.5 %. Which is again, overly optimistic.
L can not be happy with this poll.
At the moment, you’re seeing all the I’ll not vote for Labour again voters drifting to the Greens as the only real alternative. If Greens fuck up between now and the election a lot of that support will move to the centre and if Nats were to turf Luxon and get a charismatic Leader, then that support could land on the Nats. (5 of that 15%)
I find Christopher Luxon really disturbing and I cant see him being able to bring in more votes than what we see here. They should’ve stuck with Bridges or found someone else.
The 7 still in the race, the rest pretenders.
Tango.
Isn’t the elephant in the room that Labour have lost 2 out of 5 of their voters? To drop 40% of their vote in quite extraordinary.
Added to the fact, that as Chris pointed out Jacinda is just another populist Machiavellian politician, and yet she’s holds all of Labours hope in her hands.
Yes Luxon isn’t much better.
My prediction: the Nats and Act will form the next govt, and Luxon will be rolled during the first term.
Luxon isn’t much better yeah! your right but he is much worse BG
Hmm did you read Chris’s post? At this stage Luxon is the best of the worst.
I’m not tribal anything, and a swing voter. No way will I vote Jacinda.
Yes BG – Bomber assiduously skirts around the main story here – Labour on 29%.
Get excited if you wish, but Roy Morgans bounce around a bit and this one has bounced high for the Greens and low for National. You’d be smart to put money on a “reversion to the mean” in their December poll.
I mean, this poll has reported the Greens with twice the support they received in the Curia poll from a few days ago, and 6% higher than Kantar and Reid had them. Meanwhile, National is reported 5-8 points lower than all the other major credible polls.
If you take the mean result from the four major polls – N/ACT have a 3.5% lead over L/G.
Another vote of no-confidence in Luxon.
15.5% for the Greens is frankly alarming, but perhaps not surprising considering the growing influence of CRT and radical gender ideology on NZ’s public education system. The last thing NZ needs is more Elizabeth Kerekere and Ricardo Mendez clones in parliament.
A LINO-Greens-TMP government would see us well on the way to the Third World.
Agree.
There seems a fair bit of variability between polls at present , the message I read is people don’t like the status quo on either side or the main parties particularly, they are flirting with various minor parties.
It does look scarily like it might be a closer contest than it deserves to be.
Pope Punctilious 11. Nurse who gave my shots last week said that she’s working under a third world system now; enumerated the worrying number of vacancies in her field, and yes, we do not need any more polarising people in Parliament – covert or transparent.
Second poll that has Labour with a ‘2’ in it. How long till Robertson’s knife comes out.
There’s a few spare knives in Collins back or Bridges or Muller. Fuck the whole of Briscoes sold out there were that many.
Too right!
They borrowed the Labour knives of which there were many.
Pedophile Dulwich Bob, you still commenting on this site with your embarrassing posts? I’d be keeping my head down with your reputation.
All the “right” talk about is money. It is so boring. They are the biggest dorks and are incredibly homogenous. Ignorant, unevolved, Pakeha Palagi that think 2050 will be OK to save the planet from its’ idiots. By then we should have a 15m sea level rise which could wipe away Omaha. Not a bad thing but by then they would have secured their ivory towers against Moana. Prepare for Altered Carbon. That is the least fantastical future that a Netflix producer ever proposed. Season 1 was better by the way. Season 2 was too woke hahahaha
Is there a single left commenter in this thread apart from me? Not at 8.01 in the am there wasn’t.
Polls are great when they support your particular world view, and suck when they do not eh lads.
Newshub was the word according to ze beeg sauzage, rotten cabbage et al, but Roy Morgan has it all wrong–uh huh…–ok that’s settled then.
It will be a volatile election period, and I predict that like the US mid terms, that new gens will start to make their presence felt, and that ZB and the rest of the tory media are distorting that reality with their white bloke focus.
100 % Tiger, nailed it.
There are quite a few lefties commenting on this thread i would assume. They might be disappointed lefties, lefties without fucks and bothers, lefties who expected better and lefties who don’t or no longer like what the establishment left has become.
But just for sakes sake, Define Leftie.
One of the ‘wurst’ comments here today ‘frankly’, my dear old ‘Boerewors’.
The fucks and bothers went after National lost in 2017, poor, poor little righties.
They should have lost in 2017 simply because they offered no alternative.
Right now you are in 2022 and you realize that the smidgen of difference between red and blue is nigh on invisible/gone, and that for some reason the ruling party running this country atm seems hellbend on losing the next election.
Go figure.
RB are you bored or just very fed up with your esteemed leaders chatter today.
Can you define lefty?
JT would be more likely to stand for the Natz these days surely.
He thinks Michelle Boag is just a westy chick that grew up in Glen Eden,and endorses far right mayoral candidates AFAIK.
If its true that WWIII has started by the time you read this….
Somebody been lobbing missiles in to Poland again?
Yep and Ukraine are winning against Russia, if you believe the press that is.
More chance Sharma will win Hamilton west.
Russia claims they weren’t doing any operations in the region (and Ukraine/US has yet to prove they were). Of course Ukraine has a LOT of Russian/Soviet era missiles they can use for “black flag” (i.e. own goal) events to escalate the war in their favour (i.e. forcing NATO involvement).
Tinpot
Bradbury makes good sense!
After all that National party wank luxon’s finally got something to show for it.
The Green at 15.5%? You have got to be joking! Green Party voting history has demonstrated, repeatedly, they won’t break double digits. They’ll get the usual 5-8% in 2023, just like always.
It’s going to take more than a few coffees.
After showering the Kiwirail fiefdom with dough they are going to repay the Government with closing down the Auckland rail network in election year and in Labour electorates. Guess who gets the blame?
Michael Wood wants to be investigating non-disruptive alternatives (they exist) to strengthening and future proofing the Auckland rail network (and then the rest of the country) instead of listening to KiwiRail and their National party acolytes within.
The Michael Wood of the Bike Bridge and the Rivers of Filth? I can see that working out well.
Car-mageddon in West and South Auckland (because of no trains) should focus the attention of the local MP’s – even if it’s too late to put KiwiRail on a short leash or kick them in the a. The ghost of JB Gordon rides again. Hang on – I wonder if David Gordon is related?
I agree, Luxon and National are floundering.
Luxon still believes that the treaty is a “ partnership.”
Worse, he publicly supports co – governance as it applies to DOC land, rivers, lakes, the seabed and National Parks.
FFS grow a paint and support ALL New Zealanders and not the 1,000 unelected Maori elite.
Simply cannot and will not vote Luxon or Seymour. Their policies are appalling. They would seperate N.Z.
The country, once known as New Zealand is already fractured by Ardern’s separatist policies.
In your rented out head John.
No, in reality NASC. Not that ideologues are very interested in reality.
Reality is a construction of ones mind, read Bob’s posts, his mind is gone.
Yes correct JJH we’ve never been so separated.
Note you can spell separated correctly others here less educated or just a bit slow.
Wont mention who but a clue they don’t like National but have adopted their name.
Really funny.
“Note(comma”
Eistein you are not.
And kill off all the oldies and disabled if Seymour has his way
So if you have watched ‘In someone else’s country’ you’ll know that Labour and its sister party Act and the greens, National and every other dog in the race are cut from the same cloth. Neoliberalism.
There is no difference between them all.
Time for a change in how we are governed. Try governance by referendum I recks.
https://www.nzonscreen.com/title/someone-elses-country-1996
Labour giving voting rights to foreign NACT voters. Genius.
Arrest Jacinda for destroying this amazing country and I will vote Labour again. Don’t do that and I will vote for anyone who doesn’t own 7 houses who wants to cut taxes for ppl who own 7 houses.
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