BREAKING: New Newshub Poll – Labour Crash! National/ACT Government – Winners, Losers & Predictions

Labour have crashed in this Poll and the reality of a National/ACT Government is now upon us.



Labour – 32.3%

National – 40.7%

ACT – 10%

Greens – 9.5%

NZ First – 3.3%

Māori Party – 1.9%

Labour have crashed in this Poll and the reality of a National/ACT Government is now upon us.

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Chloe Swarbrick – She is more popular than the actual co-leaders! Why isn’t she the leader?

Hamilton West Byelection – This poll makes the byelection even more important and symbolic with momentum going into the Summer of an election year hinging on who will win and by how much.

National – Despite the bullshit of their taxation policy for the 5% richest and Luxon working at McDonalds, the anti Labour momentum has given National an enormous psychological win.

NZF – If Winston’s 3.3% this close to the election, he’s 5% on the day.


Labour – Their caution has cost them, the lack of transformative change has finally caught up to them

Jacinda – Her popularity is Labour’s. Her popularity wanes, so does Labour’s.

CTU – Maybe if they had worked a tad more on getting that fact showing $6Billion of National’s tax cuts will go to the top 5%, Labour wouldn’t be haemorrhaging votes. Less time on bullshit things like the PSA gold plated holiday theme and more focus on the actual issues confronting all workers, not just their mates.

ACT – 10% is pretty low for ACT, they would have hoped for a far larger share.

Greens – Who? And I make that joke as an actual Green voter.

Woke Identity Politics Activists – Well done comrades, you’ve alienated and cancelled almost every voter. I’m excited to see how you will win them back using hate speech legislation.


I think the Roy Morgan Poll is out tomorrow and the next TVNZ Poll will be out within a week as well. If they confirm Newshubs, there are real problems for Labour.

Today’s conference saw Labour finally move towards subsiding universal services that can directly save people money rather than simply lift welfare which gets clawed back by WINZ and MSD.

To combat the cost of living crisis Labour must look at free childcare, free breakfasts and lunches in school and free public transport because those benefits help everyone, not just the incredibly low thresholds that welfare provide.

By subsiding universal services and making them free, Labour would put money directly back into the pockets of those needing that help the most without MSD and WINZ getting in the way.

National’s counter offer is to put over $5Billion into the pockets of the richest 5% of NZ, once voters appreciate the enormity of inequality National are intending to implement, they will give Labour a second look.

I appreciate Covid has hurt us, and I appreciate that many former Labour voting males have walked away in disgust at the woke madness, but don’t pretend that voting National is a solution to being pissed off with Labour because an ACT/National Government will only make inequality immeasurably worse in this country.

Don’t buy Chris’s de-unionised Happy Meal, it’s poison.


SPOT THE DIFFERENCE: One is a corporate clown, the other is Ronald McDonald


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    • What does that mean? I did not sow anything, and don’t deserve to have an evangelist as my Prime Minister. Luxon is not even remotely credible. Go on about Ardern all you like, but that bloke? Can’t National find anyone in their ranks?

      • Luxon was credible enough for Jacinda to make him the chair of her business advisory council. It’s not Luxons fault that Ardern and co have failed to deliver for kiwis. They promised to be truly transformational and then dropped the ball, no one else.

        • Yes now he is inexperienced and useless. I cannot believe Jacinda is this naive. She is being advised very badly by Roberston and Willie in my view.

        • MB you are confusing the old conservative default that running a business is the same as running a government or country. It’s not. I am talking about credibility in that sense.

          If you are going to go down that tired old business route you better forget David Seymour. The only thing he has run is a bath (perhaps).

    • The Anyone but Labour (in name only) force is strong. ABL.
      I agree NACT are awful, BUT what can the public do to show their HORROR and distrust/annoyance/anger (etc etc) with a LINO Govt with ‘unlimited’ power that have done absolutely NOTHING to help the 90%.
      If they can’t do it now they will NEVER EVER EVER do so. And that means the END of the Labour party !!!!
      So the question is who is the ‘negative’ vote to go to?
      Most people aren’t too well educated, read or knowledgable in politics, so it makes sense that they will vote for the other big party, and that just happens to be Natz.
      If there was a known REAL left wing party that had a chance to be over 5% I believe you’d see that they would have absorbed the ABL vote and not mainly Natz.
      Please please start up ‘your’ Pa Aotearoa party, so we can vote for a REAL left wing party. NOW is THE golden moment to get momentum for a fledgling left wing party, and another time in history will invariably NOT be so. IMHO.
      I agree with 90% of your views Martyn. So let’s not let our difference split us, as you say about Labour; hunting down and removing the non-100% believers.

  1. Look around the world, voters are fed up and getting rid of their governments because of the economic mess we are going through. There’s nothing Labour can do about it. Minor policy changes or announcements won’t change a thing.

  2. Will be interesting to see if it’s backed up by the other polls.
    Richly deserved if true, refusing to listen or even explain co governance, 3 waters, hate speech take your pick.
    Cost of living ridiculous and government about to tax farmers.
    So, so arrogant, so, so dumb.

  3. “I think the Roy Morgan Poll is out tomorrow and the next TVNZ Poll will be out within a week as well.”

    Who’s up for the trifecta?

  4. ABA – anyone but Ardern gaining momentum. How long till the ‘2’s begin.

    Will Poor man’s Gordon Brown start sharpening his knives?

  5. The thing about big mac!s, they look bigger than they are and the soft ice cream cone starts to melt afore your hand touch.

  6. Of course there are poll anomalies, but I can’t help but feel the Working for Families increase just announced is not going to help break the downward trend.
    Just like the Nats tax relief to the top % this is just another tone deaf misstep, which will have a very limited positive effect.
    Will help fuck all of the voting base, yes will put a nice chunk into the banks of a few, but from what I’ve read so far; a few!

    I guess it’s going to come down to the classic left v right standoff.
    Labour: we know how to spend your money best, so we’ll take as much as possible and give it back in handouts, so you feel grateful.
    NationalAct. You keep your money and spend as you see fit.

  7. This poll is interesting in that Labour’s actual vote share is very similar to other polls, and the National vote share is well above the other polls. The losses from Labour appear to have been gained across ACT and the other minor parties. Does make one wonder … is it one standard polling error (which would place NACT at 48% and LabGreens at 45%) or an opening chasm that’s getting baked in.

    Either way, Labour has about 6 months to move the needle before the momentum is completely beyond recovery.

    The major issue here is that all the proposals to combat the cost of living will have to be countered by the RBNZ because their solution to inflation is to reduce demand. However, the demand they are trying to reduce is for basic necessities and it’s not demand driven inflation (in that demand on a per capita basis had not materially changed since 2020, 21 etc).

    So the “demand” that needs to be curbed is excess profiteering. The rest of inflation driven by external factors will remain as long as those factors remain – however, addressing the profiteering allows for direct assistance to people to make a material change without having to have the RBNZ counter that by increasing the OCR etc.

    • you need to remember house holds have taken on a mountain of debt and intrest rate rises are killing them and nothing the government can do about that alot of that pain is self inflicted by borrowing beyond your means

  8. Labour still my party.
    But this unfathomable co governance and unelected getting a free ridec
    will cost us dearly.
    If Winston offers us pensioners a deal that will make the pension livable that Also will hurt labour.

    • Richard Dahlberg. What about the children though ? Axing the much- needed Commissioner for Children is a brutal and unfathomable blow, and for that alone, I think Labour deserve to be history.

      • what about the parents and the childless ones? What about all the people on food parcels form charity and rundown motels to call home?

        • RB I wouldn’t concern yourself with those you mention if you vote NAT/ACT. They will make Labour look positively benevolent.

            • I didn’t say it made Labour look good at all. I am saying it won’t change. Maybe they will spread the motels around more.

  9. Hard to pick on one particular failing because there so many with Labour but from crime to Fenton St, to people dying in emergency departments unnecessarily accompanied by the cost of living, it’s all bad.

    But the biggest killer is they can promise what they like, we all know they are too inept to deliver.

    Willie is fast running out of time to implement his master plan!

  10. The future for Labour in several elections into the future will be severely compromised by the type of policies that they have followed…..The side show off touchy-feely culture , aggressive so called Maori advancement and obsession of peoples genitalia , green policy , will be used time and time again in the future by many political parties. … election slogans will read….do you really want to go back to this…with photos of 3 waters , cows , trans folk hardship and so on…..Sadly it seems we are probably going to replace the underachieving thumb twiddling Labour Green lot with the , go to church on Sunday and take the shirt off your back on Monday goons….Either way the rich get richer and the poor get same , same , but different….

  11. Polls go up and down, and swings about. No reason to panic just yet.

    Looking at your list of freebies, won’t it be better to help families look after their own children till they start kindergarten, instead of subsidizing childcare centers.

    There is need to support families, whether by income splitting, paying families a grant for up to 4??? children to help with additional expenses, community support groups and free classes for at home parent to upskill themselves etc.

    • Benny. Yes Yes Yes. Babies and toddlers being “ looked after “ by paid strangers, the whole day long, before they can even walk or talk, is not good news, and bad for the littlies. Local research carried out here in New Zealand records not just tardy milestones, but other negative impacts such as failure in particularly mother- child bonding, for the under two year olds. Pre-schoolers booked in from 8am – 6pm have less home time than many teenagers. The nuclear family unit can be hard, but it’s not so very long since families could live on one income, and kids not have to leave home so very sadly early. Many mothers cherish those early years spent with their children, but some now have few choices.

      • And what’s really depressing is that the Nats under Luxon and Willis are singing the same tune. They fully support out-sourcing of parenting.

      • Mums have no choice but to go out to work in order to pay the very high rents or huge mortgages, because we are short of houses and apartments therefore it became a sellers/landlord’s market, because we listened to the NIMBYs and anti-development Greens.

        We also left land supply up to local Councillors, who mostly want to keep out new housing and especially apartments.

  12. New Zealand is heading down Donald Trump pathway. NZ own Fox News will always bad month the Left. Melissa and Ryan will be jumping for joy.

    • 100% correct Antony. The Fox Am Tory show, Tory talk ZB, Tory times Herald with the guidance of the NATZ Dirty Politics Team will be salivating over the polls. Willie, how do we get a raving Left wing talkback or TV station like the Natz and ACT have. I dont want my taxes going to the Tories – they are getting millions of dollars of free political propaganda. Wait until Luxon confronts Jacinda on the election trail – Luxon cant keep making up figures and numbers. He and Willis are hopeless and the natz are the do nothing party. The Natz wont make the tough decisions. They will be borrowing $3bn for tax cuts for the rich and inviting the speculators in again to rip off our housing market. They never added to the social housing supply in nearly 30 years.

    • Well, we all know that ‘righties’ have become deft at stealing the money of others, mainly because they’re too lazy to work for it themselves and their greed amounts to a psychological dysfunction probably best illustrated in the studies into narcissistic sociopathy. Keep the money @ SK. I’d prefer to keep my sanity and my pride.

      • Not wrong CB. While it is true that some business owners work hard for their money, there are many others who just take every tax break and dodgy deal and sit back and make money off the backs of others.

        But this is what’s wrong with NZ today. We reward the wrong things and we applaud it. National comes along and targets those who have already made it and then Labour Govt targets the people who aspire to be these people.

        I still dont know where my vote is going and for the first time I am seriously contemplating not voting at all.

  13. ACT was 3.6% lower in the last Reid/Newshub poll. National has only gone up 0.2 on the last one.

    The pertinent detail

    then L/G/MP 48.5 NACT 46.9
    now NACT 50.7 L/G/MP 43.7

    NZF will do well in the next poll as those in the National camp wary of ACT influence move to them – indicate a preference for the type of National government.

    For Labour, the incremental measures to maintain support announced at the conference will keep them in the game till parliament returns in 2023, but no more.

    • NZF will take votes from Labour not Act. If you want a change in govt why vote Winston, he’ll just put Labour back in again.

      I know he said he won’t work with a party that promotes co governance but we’ve heard bs promises from him before.

  14. Woketards, Tribalists and SJW will be having knife fights in the dark, only one way out of this during a time of economic hardship and that is with economic solidarity. Time to shitcan the lot of them or the public will do it for you.

  15. I think the childcare subsidy increases are smart policy for Labour for a variety of reasons. However, let’s call it what it is – middle class welfare. It won’t do anything for those on benefits apart from make it easier to get a job perhaps which is helpful for some and the economy in general. There will be some support for those at lower levels in work but why the F do we have to pay for families taking in $125- $140K a year, more than double the average wage.

    If I had 3 kids and couldnt make ends meet on $140K then there’d be something wrong with me (especially if that $140K comes with the better tax treatment of 2 incomes, a max of $174 net a week better off).

    I’m not saying childcare isn’t a good thing (especially if you want people to work longer hours because, you know, there aren’t enough skills to go around) but the main reason Labour is doing this is so it can massage the PMC vote. It is basically a COL allowance for any salaried worker.

    Also, it’s a bit underwhelming compared to something like fuel tax rebate or free public transport.

  16. Don’t believe anything you read. Including this. These, are the times of the liar and the fucking right wing are very, very good at lying.
    Adern does a good job, particularly considering the shit she has to wade through that’s been left behind by the creepy natzo’s and their sweaty, money fetishist fingerings. I just wish she’d be crudely honest with us. Stop protecting us Adern. We can take it.
    You’re immersed in a liars world of crude theft left behind by a cadre of vulgar old men, mostly, who arrogantly helped themselves to our money. Get over it but remember, the past is not yet the past. Deal the death blow. She’ll be right.
    This is bloody interesting in the way the piece touches in similarities found here. I really like ol Rus Brand. He’s a bloody bright bugger and has a team of highly motivated PLU’s. Watch this. And make the connections. And can I say… told you’s so. x
    “Is Rishi Sunak, as Britain’s first Hindu Prime Minister, a cause for celebration, or should we instead be wary of his ties to the WEF, and his policies around austerity and surveillance? ”

  17. Kiwis waking up and finding the one true source of disinformation. Finally. Be gone fascists, we’ll say on Election Day.

    • Well it happened with Trump and his disinformation and still it continues. So we should expect the same here, right?

  18. “National’s counter offer is to put over $5Billion into the pockets of the richest 5% of NZ?”
    The poll results suggest that’s what people want.

  19. Labour and their supporters will not accept the result of this poll. Anyone who has the audacity to point out why support for the Ardern Government has fallen so dramatically since 2020 is “right wing”…beep! wrong! I’m not right wing. I voted Labour in 2020. I couldn’t stand Judith Collins and find Snookerballhead truly nauseating.

    Labours best and main weapon was Ardern herself. Now a growing number of people are recoiling when she speaks. That spells the end of the Ardern Government.

    They did do some good work and that should be acknowledged…..but they are taking our country down the wrong track and that will be reflected in the 2023 vote. Can you imagine just how badly Labour would be trounced if National had a decent leader?

    • “Can you imagine just how badly Labour would be trounced if National had a decent leader?”

      Yes TM. Considering the open goal presented by the incompetence, dishonesty and contempt for ordinary Kiwis shown by this government, 21% support for Humpty Dumpty as preferred PM is tantamount to a vote of no-confidence. Hardly surprising, considering his preference for corporate-speak and his apparent fear of offending anyone.

      Though the problem goes much deeper than Luxon, in that the differences between LINO and the Nats are now rather slim. They both look to me like globalist progressive neoliberal parties. The Young Nats want a “more treaty-focused” party. The Nats’ pitch to the electorate seems to be a “better” status quo. They’ll trim spending (mostly from areas that need more – not less – support), dilute or scrap Three Waters and the Maaori healthy authority; but they won’t change the overall settings of the course we’re on. There will be no move to break the stranglehold of CRT or radical gender ideology on our institutions, unless Seymour and/or Peters have the votes to force Luxon’s shaky hand.

  20. Poor man’s Gordon Brown is another one the voters are annoyed with I am afraid. Would have to be Stu Nash as leader to have any chance in next election. & Bring back Louisa Wall, one if the few good Labour MP’s.

  21. I think my favourite song has a niche for itself again.
    From Oliver – ‘I’m Reviewing the Situation’ and it’s the sing- a-long version so Labour MPs and fellow travellers can sing it together or separately. The words are strangely appropriate considering it is about a robber trying to do his best in a harsh world, with his young underlings.

    Left without anyone in the world,
    And I’m starting from now
    So “how to win friends and to influence people”
    So how?
    I’m reviewing the situation,
    I must quickly look up ev’ryone I know.
    Titled people — with a station
    Who can help me make a real impressive show!

    So where shall I go — somebody?
    Who do I know? Nobody!
    All my dearest companions
    Have always been villains and thieves…
    So at my time of life
    I should start turning over new leaves?
    I’m reviewing the situation.
    If you want to eat — you’ve got to earn a bob!…

    I’m reviewing the situation.
    I’m a bad ‘un and a bad ‘un I shall stay!
    You’ll be seeing no transformation,
    But it’s wrong to be a rogue in ev’ry way…

    This rotten life is not for me.
    It’s getting far too hot for me.
    There is no in between for me
    But who will change the scene for me?
    Don’t want no one to rob for me.
    But who will find a job for me,

    (It’s time for some new blood in Labour before the aggrieved alienated
    are tempted to spill it.)

  22. Labour are desperate enough to give a family earning $108000 a year help with child care and you Labour lovers say they are good with our money . I am happy for support to go to those in true need but why is someone earning $108000 need help and you complain about the rich getting some tax breaks .
    This poll is great news but you can see from this move the only thing Labour can come up with is giving money to all and buying their way back to the treasury benches

  23. ” National – Despite the bullshit of their taxation policy for the 5% richest and Luxon working at McDonalds, the anti Labour momentum has given National an enormous psychological win ”

    Looks like the Hobbits are warming to Luxon and Seymour so expect to see more poor mans restaurant’s being used to talk directly to the people who will be easily manipulated.

    Trends are important even a possible year out from the general election that must be held by the 18th of November and the coming economic carnage will dominate all of next year right up to the vote.

    The LINO caucus will begin to get edgy and the coming by election result won’t help after the massive majority they won countrywide barely two years ago.

    The biggest majority since 1990 and under MMP which is incredibly rare. Seems like a mighty storm is coming for LINO and their lack of transformation , delivery and deliberately driving many of their supporters away.

    Imagine the horror of gifting the Nasties the next government after a massive majority and endorsement in 2020.

    One budget to go and it seems that’s all they have left.

    Its all on Robbo’s shoulders from here on in.

  24. So Labour should bribe the electorate with tonnes of free stuff?

    The left’s go to policy is to bribe people with their own money, until they become addicted to the sugar rush that it can no longer be taken off them.

    There’s a simple ideological difference. “Vote Labour is you think Jacinda and Grant can spend your money better than you, or vote Nact if you think you can.”

    • Well BG you can just easily point out that the rights go to, is to f*ck over the majority of people who actually work to make sure the well off continue to make money. Luxon and co will be spending peoples money alright, just proportionately it comes from the middle to lower class.

      • 54% of New Zealand are getting some govt assistance.

        Good luck taking any of that back. The left keep loading up assistance (free stuff) so much, that people now expect more free stuff. It’s like giving people drugs and they’re now addicted to govt handouts.

        This trajectory will have everyone relying on govt handouts. Labours wet dream.

  25. Some rather shallow comments above, politics is much more than the parliamentary variety. Polling is in a parlous state in NZ compared to just a few years back when there were so many that Collin James used to run his “poll of polls”. To state the obvious, polls are great when they line up with an individual’s preferred world view, and rather suck when they don’t.

    Labour has done this to itself, they had a blank cheque in 2020 and refused to cash it in favour of the working class and alienated. And…the dirty Natzos and ACT have made it quite clear what they will do if they are able to grasp the green leather benches with their munted orcish claws and mutated bal’heads. Being pissed at NZ Labour is no reason to welcome the rightwing filth tide back into Govt. Tens of thousands more people would likely have died during COVID if they had been in office in 20/21.

    But in any event, voting for the lesser evil of an NZ Labour led Govt. with hopefully a strong Green and Te Pāti Māori element is the only option for politically literate non Natzos in 2023.

    We need a new left campaign to boot Rogernomics in 2026, along with a rejuvenated NZCTU that takes it to the Labour Caucus and tells them how the world works.

  26. Chloe Swarbrick – She is more popular than the actual co-leaders! Why isn’t she the leader?

    A). Too lazy – opportunity in the leadership challenge, but why bother when you can loll about writing books and memes about yourself and all your problems, when being an MP on 6 figure salary in early 20’s, after coming 3rd place in mayoral elections.

  27. Labour killed of by Labour. Not a worker in sight, maybe they just don’t have any clue as to how to labour.

  28. Interesting to see Ms Lynch proudly supporting ACT – well, she is married to the Chief of Staff, Mr Ketels …so it is to be expected. #DirtyPoliticsPersistNZ

  29. Was always gonna happen, 3 Waters, hate speech bill, more mass immigration of migrants below average wages and no wage dependant migrant pensioners/children, more and more restructuring of a system when the restructures make everything 1000’s times worse, like the war of private landlords to create the business-led/foreign led landlords gobbling up taxpayer money for disgusting accomodation.

    More and more sales of foreign assets like forestry, even though many of the assets being sold offshore are neglected and have to close down.

    Foreign property investors and backpackers getting NZ cost of living payments. They just can’t wait to give more money/assets away to foreign wealthy billionaires and bring more high needs people into NZ gobbling up scarce resources, in some virtue signalling woke stupidity.

    Typical woke media post is something like, why some high needs health relative can’t get NZ residency for example and free benefits and health care in NZ (Discrimination!!!!), while not pointing out in other countries the entire migrant family working in NZ needs to pay health insurance, let alone give migrant workers free health/education from day 1, then complain because more and more family members can’t get more free care!!! Wake up NZ, nobody else is so stupid in the world!!! The only other dimwit foreign interfered nation, giving away free welfare to all was the UK, which is a disaster with inflation and high cost of living, too.

  30. You know if you make the main focus of your party to rebrand New Zealand as some fictional name while simultaneously attempt to socially engineer things so a small racial elite are suddenly (and seemingly) running the show there is going to be a push back.

    Kiwis as a whole don’t like racist, elitism and nor do we like being dictated to be any elites Kiwis also are on the whole very proud of New Zealand and her historical identity

    No society is ever perfect but Labour have managed to inherit a fairly cohesive and stable society in 2017 and turn it into a chaotic divided mess all within just a few years.

    Identity politics is cancer

    meanwhile banks, petrol companies, electricity, supermarkets and the like are making record profits

    Go figure

  31. We are in the middle of a woke useless shitstorm with the self-serving rat fuckers riding to the ‘rescue’.

  32. Well. Bring on an early election because they’re out of ideas and are only offering more of the same incompetence and more trickle-down economics!
    National are pretty much the same! Neither have realised or are willing to be brave enough to admit laissez faire Chicago school of economics died at the GFC! SO we’re all pretty much fuck’d!
    And all they can come up with is, ‘but think of the widdle babies we’ve impoverished … so we’ll throw them a bone!’ And their ‘karen’ mom’s will bully their eunuch partners to vote for them too!

    Seriously! We are really, really, really,really, really, really, really,really,really, really, really,really, really, really, really,really, really, really, really,really, really, really, really,really,really, really, really,really, really, really, really,really, really, really, really,really, really, really, really,really,really, really, really,really, really, really, really,really, really, really, really,really, really, really, really,really,really, really, really,really, really, really, really,really, fuck’d folks!

  33. It must be hard for the well to do people in the Labour and the National party to realise that their own kids can’t afford a house in NZ, can’t afford to have a stay at home parent and pay the bills, have heating and food at the same time, thus the help to working people with two incomes to raise their children in ‘early’ child care.
    Also stay at home parent is something to be worried about, i mean they may knit or have a penchant for kale chips and braided sweet bread.
    Now, not a word on the people that are living with no income to very little income, and how receiving any ‘increases’ on the main benefit cut their fringe benefits. And these would be the ones that need help.

    There is a gold coin, on one side it says National on the other side it says Labour, and we are squeezed by both of them to an inch of our lifes in the middle.

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