The situation in Kherson changed suddenly this week. Instead of the predicted withdrawal, Russia reinforced the area. The Russians now appear to be planning to fight for the city. However, there is a catch – the reinforcements crossing the Dnipro River and digging in are mostly recently mobilised conscripts. Russian heavy equipment, experienced soldiers and senior officers were withdrawn in previous weeks. Essentially, recently mobilised conscripts who are less well equipped, trained and led are expected to dig in and die defending the city; while more experienced and better equipped soldiers are withdrawn to safer positions.
This action demonstrates Putin’s cruelty in a manner different to the actions we have already witnessed. A recently mobilised conscript is a person, who a couple of weeks ago was living a normal life; working in an office, on a farm, studying or engaged in some other civilian occupation. Years or even decades ago they served in the Russian army for a short period and now after a short period of training are being sent into Kherson, expected to defend the city against a skilled and motivated enemy. Further, winter is fast approaching and the new conscripts are poorly equipped and conditions in the area will soon become dreadfully cold. So not only will these soldiers be fighting the Ukrainians but also the weather.
At this stage it makes tactical sense to withdraw in good order across the Dnipro River and establish a defensive line on the east bank. Instead, Putin has made a cold, cruel calculation that he may be able to hold Kherson long enough, that if NATO support fails, he may be able to retain the city and therefore a foothold west of the Dnipro River in a peace settlement. The cost is sacrificing soldiers. Being the pragmatist that he is; he has chosen to sacrifice the least useful soldiers; his fresh conscripts. It is a cruel decision, that demonstrates the disregard that he has for human life. The world already knew that Putin is willing to butcher enemy civilians, indiscriminately bombing Chechen, Georgian, Syrian and Ukrainian cities. Further, he allows his soldiers to pillage, rape and murder enemy civilians. But to callously sacrifice freshly mobilised Russian soldiers, while allowing more experienced troops to withdraw confirms that even Russian lives mean little to him.
Now, we know that Russia’s tactical objective is to hold the city for as long as possible, aiming to prolong the ground battle for sufficient time; that their wider strategic initiatives can impact on NATO and Ukraine. Putin wants the war to slow down because internationally he is gaining ground. If the Republicans win in the American mid-term elections, then United States support is no longer guaranteed. A winter with out cheap Russian gas could sway European resolve and abroad China and North Korea are creating diversions that may draw Western attention away from Ukraine. He may also expect his attack on Ukraine’s infrastructure to sap the country’s morale. Further, within Europe there are weak links, in Hungry there is discontent about NATO strategy. Italy’s new government includes Silvio Berlusconi, Putin’s friend.
Perhaps the best example of Russia’s current strategic focus is last week’s ‘information operation’ designed to fuel Western anxiety about nuclear escalation. The Russians claiming that Ukraine was poised to use a nuclear ‘dirty bomb’, set off considerable disquiet amongst Ukraine’s supporters. Many believing it was a prelude to a ‘false flag’ attack – Russia detonating a nuclear weapon and claiming it was a Ukrainian attack, thereby setting the conditions for ‘legitimate’ nuclear escalation.
The operation started by targeting France’s President Emmanuel Macron. Clearly Russia has appreciated that Macron is a weak link; and afterwards the claim was extended across a range of forums. Unfortunately, the discussion escalated keeping the nuclear threat on the table, a win for Russia.
In 1950, Bernard Brodie a Yale political scientist articulated the key tenet of any nuclear strategy. That a nuclear weapon’s effectiveness is not in its use, but rather in the threat of it being used. Regardless of their rhetoric the Russian’s have neither used a tactical nuclear weapon nor changed their force’s posture. At this stage in the war, suffering conventional defeat after defeat; and facing the imminent prospect of complete defeat there have been a number of opportunities to use tactical nuclear weapons and force NATO to reflect on its support for Ukraine. None have been taken so it is unlikely that the Putin has the political support he needs to take this step. However, from Putin’s perspective making sure that the threat exists is important because it creates uncertainty within NATO.
People like President Macron start to worry, then seek to appease Putin; for instance by breaking with convention and confirming that even if Russia uses a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine, France will not retaliate in kind. This provides Putin with certainty and a key fact he can plan on. Further, he could interpret the statement to reflect that this is the agreed policy of the United States and the United Kingdom as well as France. Macron’s statements reduce the uncertainty that NATO’s response may be nuclear, thereby diminishing the inherent risk of Russia using its tactical nuclear weapons. NATO needs to project strength and resolve because Putin sees anything else as weakness to be exploited.
Ukraine’s offensives are not gaining large amounts of ground at the moment, but are maintaining pressure and there is no doubt that Ukraine still has the initiative. Russia’s army in Ukraine is in trouble; it is an army designed for the 1980s. Poorly trained and led; but most importantly it has missed recent developments in war-fighting especially ‘mission command’. A doctrine embraced in NATO armies that emphasises junior leadership and devolution of authority. The genesis of modern mission command doctrine is Germany’s Blitzkrieg tactics of World War Two. Blitzkrieg tactics required armies that were flexible and agile; able to take immediate advantage of changes in the battle. The best way to achieve this objective was to train and empower junior leaders, so they could make immediate decisions and manoeuvre quickly on the battlefield. This style of fighting was studied and emulated by NATO armies during the Cold War and eventually by the 1990s and 2000s was being used in United States and NATO operations.
Modern technology and the Internet provide communications infra-structure that allows an incredible expansion of the basic tenets of mission command. The Internet allows instant transmission of pictures, video and large quantities of data; further enabling frontline decision making. The swarm of Ukrainian light vehicles carrying soldiers equipped with light weight but highly effective anti-armour weapons like Javelin and NLAW is connected by radios, cell phones and the Internet allowing them to immediately share information across the force. Tanks can be brought forward to attack a weak point, anti-armour weapons can be concentrated to stop a counter attack and most importantly key enemy targets can be engaged by precision guided weapons like HIMARS.
The Ukrainians are currently taking the principles of mission command to a new level. A level that has been predicted for a long-time. The United States Striker Brigades of the early 2000’s with their emphasis on high speed, data driven operations are an example of forces developed to fight this way. The Striker Brigade used fast, wheeled but lightly armed vehicles that could rapidly move well-trained and equipped infantry across a large and dispersed battlefield. Ranging over a wide area; they were designed to spread out to find the enemy, concentrate to fix them in place so they could be destroyed with precision guided weapons or bypassed, the operations tied together by advanced digital communications. Another example is the British Army’s recent Strike Brigade concept, another fast moving lightly armed organisation designed to fight the same way.
The Ukrainians are another step in this evolution moving even faster and with more dispersion. An army of highly motivated Internet savvy soldiers able to transfer information about Russian forces immediately within their force. Access to this type of information also allows their commanders to have a very high level of battlefield awareness so they can think ahead and provide the support that their frontline forces need; or quickly change the focus of an operation – switching the main effort to take advantage of changes in the situation. Hence, why Starlink is so important!
This is a style of fighting; that it looked like the Russians were going to use in the first days of the invasion. However, it quickly became apparent that their military is trapped in the 1980s. That Russian units did not have competent junior commanders or good communications. And; that is why the Russians are going to lose the tactical battle, they are fighting yesterday’s war while their Ukrainian enemies are fighting tomorrow’s. It took NATO fifty years to build their mission command capability. Ukraine has built their capability quickly from necessity; and because after the 2014 Invasion of Crimea they were able to start from scratch supported by the United States and United Kingdom both countries that have spent decades mastering the art of mission command.
Although Russia is doomed to lose the tactical battle; it still has the ability to win strategically. We have discussed Putin’s plan, to sacrifice Russia’s inexperienced recently mobilised soldiers defending Kherson. A static defence is the easiest type of battle for an inexperienced soldier and across the frontline from the Kremina / Svatove Line in the north-east to Kherson in the south-west we can expect the Russians to dig in their ‘expendable’ newly mobilised soldiers. The more experienced (and useful) soldiers appear to be being pulled back and used to rebuild while their colleagues are sacrificed. Buying time, while Putin tries to break NATO’s commitment by continuing to scare the weaker members of the alliance with nuclear rhetoric, by starving Europe of Russian gas and by working with allies to destabilise the international community and world economy.
So in coming weeks, expect to see the following activity:
- Russian drone strikes against Ukrainian civilian infrastructure will continue.
- Kherson will be defended and the question is whether the Ukrainians will attack the city; or bypass it. A bypass could include opening another front, perhaps a drive south towards the coast from Zaporizhia to split the Crimean land bridge and further isolate Crimea.
- In the north-east Ukraine is already putting pressure on the Svatove / Kremina defence line that roughly follows the P66 highway. This is an area that may see a Ukrainian breakthrough in coming weeks.
- Russian forces will continue to attack Bakhmut, in the east. This activity is driven by Russian internal politics. Wagner Group mercenaries attacking the city to give their owner Yevgeny Prigozhin a political win by demonstrating that his private army can succeed where Russia’s conventional military failed.
- Putin will continue to work strategically to divide NATO members by playing on their fears and to build alliances with other non-Western countries. Many nations dislike the progressive West; and respond to Putin’s anti-Western rhetoric. Russia will continue to try and position itself as an underdog struggling against a morally corrupt and overbearing West.
In summary, it is important that the world appreciates the tactical situation and that Russia is losing the war. Now, Putin is playing for time and changing his focus to the strategic arena in which there are still opportunities. NATO need to respond appropriately, the path to peace is convincing Putin there is no way he can conquer Ukraine; and that any future aggression will be defeated by a united NATO.
Ben Morgan is a tired Gen X interested in international politics. He is TDB’s Military analyst.
Queue the dancing Cossacks in three, two, one…
And first out of the gate is Fran quickly followed by Nick+J & B Awakesky * . . all three clearly delusional more than happy to advertise the fact.
Agreed JB – they are indeed delusional.
“many nations dislike the progressive west”
Do you think it’s the “progressiveness” they dislike, or the murderous pillaging and colonising ways of the west
The human rights records of the US, Australia, Canada, France , Britain, as it applies to “foreigners” is not something to be admired.
Anyway Ben, several weeks ago you were saying Russia’s defeat is imminent.They are exhausted and scared and running out of ammo.
How do you define “imminent”?
now we have the woke trying to colonise the world
Good point re the predictions of Russian demise….if you search all of Bens headlines they can be described as “hope shines eternal”.
I think the Ukrainians have a plan to capture the filth occupiers and their equipment so they want them to stay and fight so they can smash the occupying cunts.
Disgusting language.
Its ok we are talking about Russians like you Ivan
The human rights record of the West is a darn sight better than Russia, China or Iran. Why did Putin close down Memorial? Have you ever heard of Memorial Francesca da Rimini?
Thanks Ben.
I see Ukraine is now claiming they’ve received thousands of Russian soldiers surrendering with more coming over every day. That would be my first choice if I was one of those conscripts.
Believe nothing you hear ,,, and half of what you see ,,,, did you forget to put in video/photo links showing these mass surrenders Andrew?
A month ago I predicted that by the end of November the Russians would be in Odessa. There’s nothing I have seen to suggest otherwise. Seems to me that the forces now being arrayed against Ukraine and NATO are getting superior by the day. The best thing that can happen is that Ukraine negotiate before Russia decides to impose a settlement. How the “West’ explains that will be interesting, another “win” such as Afghanistan I expect.
And just how will that happen?
It would require a powerful armoured thrust supported by infantry with complete air cover. The Russian military only has one of these things, and that is infantry. In addition the main route to Odessa is via Kherson across the Dnieper River. But the bridges on that river have been largely destroyed.
The other option would be a seaborne invasion, which is simply beyond the capacity of the Black Sea fleet.
I am surprised you are prepared to go out on a limb to make such a prediction.
Wayne, if you look at the balance of forces post mobilisation Ukraine is up against it. I don’t accept that there is any “Western” superiority in tactics, doctrine, weaponry. Consequently it comes down to logistics and numbers. Why do you think Ukraine / NATO keeps escalating by mentioning Nukes, blasting bridges and pipelines? It is because on the field the scenario is hopeless. That is why negotiation is a must before there is nothing to negotiate for.
Nick J’s ‘projections’ are getting more and more absurd as time progresses. Most of it is wishful thinking it seems – and yet he denies that he is pro-Putin.
I would shudder with horror if Odessa is captured and so should Nick J!
More accurate than Ben, that’s not hard. Come back on that one mid to late November.
Cuckoo Cuckoo
Good and bad analogy’s
A ‘bear trap’ is the perfect analogy for what was prepared and set for Russia in the past in Afghanistan ,,,, and in Ukraine in the present…..
…. “The US deliberately provoked this war. The US is keeping this war going. The US is using this war to advance its geostrategic interests in Europe and Asia. These are facts. When facts are taboo, you are living in a world of lies.” https://caitlinjohnstone.com/2022/10/27/the-boy-who-cried-hitler-notes-from-the-edge-of-the-narrative-matrix/
A bear trap is just like a filthy big gin trap with it’s chain attached to a giant stake driven into the ground/country where the bear is to be caught maimed and killed https://www.nzherald.co.nz/resizer/owON1VF8r2B0ao9e_MTMk2aLUAU=/992×558/smart/filters:quality(70)/cloudfront-ap-southeast-2.images.arcpublishing.com/nzme/DARF5UZ7TY7YORZYVDGTYV3VJU.jpg
A caught bear will rampage around the ground/country where the trap has been sprung ,,, flattening everything until the Bear either dies ,,, or slinks off wounded bleeding and missing a few claws,as happened in Afghanistan…..
So the people are the blades of grass, the city’s and their society are the shrubbery, and they count for nothing ,,,, the sole purpose is to wound and kill the Bear….Nato trappers know this.
Pretending to care about the ground or country/people where the trap was laid is either dishonest or stupid ,,, again and demonstratively, they count for nothing.
“New Zealand has enjoyed excellent relations with the United Kingdom while Boris Johnson was Prime Minister. Under his leadership we’ve cooperated with the UK to provide military support to Ukraine; “ https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/pm-congratulates-next-united-kingdom-pm
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Gaddafi being sodomized with a bayonet and murdered ,,,, is also a perfect analogy for what Nato members did to the whole of Libya ,,,, anyone calling for Russian repatriations to Ukraine without demanding the same for Libya, from that countries western destroyers ,,,,is nothing more than a ruthless hypocrite….
“sheep-dipping” is a bad analogy I’ve heard,, it describes soldiers of a country such as Poland/UK etc ,,, changing uniforms and becoming Ukraine volunteer fighters ,,,, ‘costume changers’ would be a better descriptor.
‘very convenient blackouts’, is something many murderers employ when they confess to their crimes, leaving out and not remembering the worst bits ,,,,here’s our Ukrainian very convenient blackout https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/002/328/648/0ad.jpg
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Zelinskys right hand man Arestovich, has grim news for Ukraine near Kherson https://youtu.be/tJEkvlzUpiE?t=2362 ,,,, upping the pressure and need for their hail Mary ‘dirty bomb’ false flag ,,,, allegedly.
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Here’s a a former Mossard/Israel official ,,,, speaking his personal Jewish opinion about Zelensky , “the most disgusting, the sneakiest representative of my people, who builds his career supporting those who are the successors of those who were destroying our people” https://youtu.be/tJEkvlzUpiE?t=2195
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Finally ,,,, People can have differing opinions on the professors opinions in the first 4 minutes of this video ….. but the last statement he makes is indisputable https://youtu.be/Ec2E4k1K52E
So what? It’s MOSSAD actually. Get it right!
I saw a report that says 4,700 US troops from the 101st Airborne have arrived in Europe.
Apparently the U.S has almost 100,000 ‘defence’ personale already in…Europe.
And what exactly your point Blazer?
Have you really only discovered that the US bases some of it’s forces in Europe?
My point is that there are signs of escalating the conflict…not seeking mediation.
Ok fair enough – thanks for clarifying.
I just reads Bens column again, just looking for the rationale behind his thinking. The detail about tactical doctrines and developments, about the internet and how it all fits together left me questioning what exact evidence there is to back up all this theory about a wonder army backed with wonder weapons. To be brutally honest the first Ukrainian army was wiped out by superior Russian artillery. The second NATO trained and equipped army counterattacks and suffers massive losses…they are being wiped out as well.
Id conclude that as normally happens in war both sides believe their own bullshit, and the bull that we in the West are used to is our own exceptionalism. We cannot accept that our forces and weapons are not superior. The enemy are made out to be chumps, kick the rotten door down untermensch. Meanwhile we through Bens columns engage in wishful thinking.
If the first Ukrainian army was “wiped out”
1. how did Kiev survive and push back Russian forces
2. how did Ukraine retain positions in the Donbass
Who was rearmed (those not army or reservists mobilised inititially – John boy and his Auntie Leah Lvov)?
3. so that Kharkov did what Kiev did and then push back into the northern Donbass
4. so that Kherson is being liberated (the former Russian forces there rested back in Crimea or too defending the central southern front because the Kherson line is exposed) from the less capable new conscripts/Russian reservists.
SPC
1. Fixing action to hold Ukraine troops away from Donbass and / or extreme bluff to panic Kiev. If fixing a success, if bluff a total failure.
2. Positions in Donbass fortified over 8 years, they have been slowly ground back by Russian artillery and Donbass militia. As a Special Operation it has been severely under manned, a huge mistake now rectified by mobilisation.
3. The Russians as above never had the forces to cover the front and Ukraine (NATO) attacked the thinnest lines. Tactically smart, strategically mad. Ukraine recaptured land Russia deserted whilst the attackers were mauled from a distance, huge losses for a propaganda coup. So now the attackers are diminished, at the end of logistical lines, facing a mobilised Russian army.
4. Reports from Kherson show that Russia has reinforced and rebuffed assaults. Propaganda tells us Russian reservists are ill armed and raw with low moral. Yeah right, I’m sure Russia says the same about Ukraine.
Hope that helps, I’ve read both sides claims, run Occams Razor over them, done the cynical crunch. The ground is muddy, watch for ice. Things will move then.
Bollocks Nick J – you couldn’t be objective if you tried. Odessa will not fall!
The Russians have won! Get over it! It’s all downhill for the Ukies now. By all means keep on deluding yourselves with your warped propaganda and distortions! You’re basically up your own asses. But comforting No!?
There is always one nutbar on a blog.
Zrada will no doubt be a sentiment Ukrainians are feeling.
https://euromaidanpress.com/2015/11/12/zrada-the-ukrainian-talent-of-feeling-betrayed-whenever-wherever/
But do they have the intelligence to know who the betrayers are? And can they accept any personal responsibility for what has unfolded? If only the west had supplied more HIMARs (a number way more than production capacity) they will wail.
They do not seem to be the kind of immigrants NZ needs.
Thanks Ben.
“More Austin Powers than James Bond”. George Galloway described Liz Truss phone, hacked by Russia using Israeli software. She apparently texted Blinken one minute after the Nordstream explosion, “It’s done”. Nobody else knew or had reported it at that point…..
The Russians know Britain was involved in the Nordstream, Crimea Bridge and Sevastopol naval base attacks.
This raises questions. Truss texted Blinken. Was she acting on his orders? Is Britain a mere vassal? Why don’t the USA do their own dirty work? As only Congress can authorise an act of war are these acts illegal?
Maybe Putin is right, the USA is a criminal terrorist country.
More delusional conspiracies Nick J. You need to get out more!
is it possible russia did nordstream…yes
is it possible the west did it and is telling porkies, on previous performance highly likely
we don’t know
we won’t know till years after the conflict is over.
When the volk of Duetschland are cold hungry unemployed and broke who will they blame. Russia at that point may offer gas, oil and grain. Who “wins”?
Not Russia
In your sick little brain you couldn’t conceive that everybody loses.
Only Russia is going to lose Ivan.
Troll
You are the troll I am on the side of right.
As in extreme Right wing?
Ask George Galloway, I’d say he’s got big balls if his sources aren’t reliable.
Sitting Ducks
– the reinforcements crossing the Dnipro River and digging in are mostly recently mobilised conscripts. Russian heavy equipment, experienced soldiers and senior officers were withdrawn in previous weeks……
…. Essentially, recently mobilised conscripts who are less well equipped, trained and led are expected to dig in and die defending the city; while more experienced and better equipped soldiers are withdrawn to safer positions….
A recently mobilised conscript is a person, who a couple of weeks ago was living a normal life; working in an office, on a farm, studying or engaged in some other civilian occupation….
….now after a short period of training are being sent into Kherson, expected to defend the city against a skilled and motivated enemy. Ben Morgan
Putin is filling Kherson with expendable conscripts. This is now the perfect time and place for a false flag dirty bomb attack.
Putin’s other false flag option is to blow up the Kakhovka dam and drown the conscripts.
Putin’s motive for sacrificing the conscripts would be to shore up flagging Russian public support for the war against Ukraine, by blaming the deaths of their conscripted sons, husbands and fathers on the “Ukronazis”.
The best strategy for Russian conscripts about to be sacrificed as pawns in Putin’s propaganda campaign, would be to get the hell out of Kherson through whatever channel they can, before Putin can drown, or poison them with a dirty bomb.
The major strategic weakness will occur if McCarthy and McConnell return to GOP leadership in Congress.
I suspect their Trumpian strategy is to undermine Biden and NATO’s liberal western leadership regime (allowing defeat in Ukraine probably by making support for Ukraine conditional on things Biden will not do domestically) to build a Christian strongman/authoritarian nationalism alliance to isolate China/defeat the secular left worldwide.
Since 2016 there has been a GOP tilt to Russia and against China (a reverse of the one to China and against the USSR/to defeat the secular left worldwide – neoliberalism and the global market resulting that time). Putin knows this and thus the attack on Ukraine. If gridlock in DC weakens US support, then the winter of discontent and prospect of continuing economic hardship will cause significant division and the secular left order of the EU will be in disarray. Given the prospect of Trump’s return, the EU will have to rethink its Ukraine policy and or NATO itself.
SPC interesting perspective, quite conceivable post midterms.
What seems likely to me is that the moment has passed for the isolation of China and Russia from one another. They are thrown together in common cause against a common enemy, the USA. The war against US$ hegemony might not have begun without the sanctions but it was always going to happen. It will be interesting to whom the solidarity Brazil and India goes.
The moment for isolation of Russia from China to enable a continuing American supremacy may be over (possibly as early as the court action in 2000 that led to the Bush presidency decided that – the financial deregulation that led to the GFC, Gulf War and the subsequent no fly zone betrayal in Libya misrule instead of management of global warming). BUT nations (Russia, India and Brazil) have interests. And while they will involve a questioning of the Bretton Woods+ international regime, it will also include preventing pax China.
After all there is now a very real prospect that the USA itself will not endure – the New England original colonies and the West Coast could join Canada. Apparently the Canadian who wrote the Hand Maids Tale was prescient. The GOP states are building, not waiting for, a 1000 year reich Christian dominionism. There is no way the other states are going to remain in union with them.
SPC, yes some nations may wish an end to Pax Americana, but Pax anybody else is a problem. So many emerging powers, balancing it will be tricky. That’s why I advocate NZ follows non alignment and armed neutrality.
The US may tear itself apart, I think they are still cogent enough to endure.
More batshit crazy from the Russian imperialists;
Russia has deployed missiles to Belarus in what is likely a desperate attempt to intimidate the West while its forces flounder in Ukraine,…
….the missiles, also known as Kinzhal or “dagger” missiles, can carry conventional or nuclear warheads and are hypersonic, since they are reported to travel at over five times the speed of sound.
Ukraine’s current air defenses can’t detect and destroy them, according to Hromadske, which could raise alarm about whether Russia intends to use Belarus as a staging ground for an assault on Ukraine,….
https://news.yahoo.com/putin-parades-missile-nightmare-latest-182410020.html
It’s to continue the destruction of power generation for heating and to the three waters (sewage/waste water and drinking water) over the winter, despite upgrade of air defence systems.
The Syrian strategy – destroying a city as place to live to “liberate it” from any rival/alternative regime.
Pat, what do you do when an enemy parks a nuke missile in Cuba (if you are American)?
Or if an enemy parks one in Finland, Poland, Ukraine (if you are Russian)?
Get thinking Pat, unless you are of that “better dead than Red” school of thought.