Analysts react as Aggressive Fed hikes rates another 75 basis points
The Federal Reserve raised its target interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point to a range of 3.00%-3.25% on Wednesday and signaled more large increases to come in new projections showing its policy rate rising to 4.40% by the end of this year before topping out at 4.60% in 2023 to battle continued strong inflation.
The U.S. central bank’s quarterly economic projections, meanwhile, showed the economy slowing to a crawl in 2022, with year-end growth at 0.2%, rising to 1.2% in 2023, well below the economy’s potential. The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 3.8% this year and 4.4% in 2023. Inflation is seen slowly returning to the Fed’s 2% target in 2025.
Powell spooked the bejesus out of the Market again today by hiking another 75points while telling everyone he is gripping the helm as the economy goes over a cliff.
He was very clear that they were in uncharted territory and that he was aggressively pursuing inflation.
It has all the ingredients of hyper inflation.
As the markets were reeling, a desperate Putin mobilised his army and threatened nukes.
Shit just got real in the Ukraine.
To date, Putin has mutilated his own small invasion force mainly made up of young recruits from the provinces and rural sector, now he’s recruiting from the cities, from the main centres, a far larger army.
He invaded with 150 000, this mobilisation gives him another 300 000.
That’s an aggressive ratcheting up of military hardware and resources to an already war damaged region alongside the economic carnage in Europe for gas prices alongside Middle Eastern dependence upon Ukrainian food.
As this is happening, the first suggestions of US Military becoming involved in the Ukraine is being voiced on CNN.
This is deeply troubling.
The argument on CNN is that the US should supply military inside the Ukraine to aid in the repair of damaged equipment from the frontline to repair stations in Poland.
To argue for US Military inside the Ukraine regardless of their nature would I think be a dangerous provocation at a time when Putin is already threatening nukes.
The danger Putin has put his nation in now is extraordinary. The fear that has seen Russians flee the country to avoid being conscripted is enormous and real, the fractures he is willing to put his country through for this drive for legacy is not being fully comprehended.
This emboldened manoeuvre by Putin means Xi has a free hand to attempt something in time for the November Congress, with that in mind, note how many times Biden has now publicly said he will send US troops to defend Taiwan.
There is a pressure cooker of global events all arriving in November from the US midterms, to Russia’s first waves of newly mobilised recruits hitting the Ukraine, to the Chinese Communist Party’s Congress.
Grant’s optimism for the NZ Economy seems stuck on two Monty Python settings.
‘Tis just a flesh wound’ and ‘Always look on the bright side of life’.
Increasingly having independent opinion in a mainstream media environment which mostly echo one another has become more important than ever, so if you value having an independent voice – please donate here.
If you can’t contribute but want to help, please always feel free to share our blogs on social media
Can’t control what you can’t control. Putin simply won’t be “allowed” to nuke anything. He’s no doubt signed his own death warrant in this. Plus he’s dying anyway from disease. He must have an ego the size of a small planet. Madman.
how many times in the last 6 months has putin been on the verge of toppling?
It’s constant, just amazing he’s still alive
The idiots who believe the establishment media’s American false narrative that noone in the world outside middle class white colonials is stupid enough to believe sound like libertarians predicting a recession. Yes, Putin at some time will pass over power to his successor. No, predicting it constantly for years doesn’t make you more believable.
Quite agree Sinic. I’m sure Putin has enemies in the Kremlin who would decapitate him if he tried the nuclear option.
The big unknown for Putin is the motivation for the 300k to fight. Will they simply turn up at the front and surrender? Logistically he has to get them ready to fight and that is going to take time and not an inconsiderable amount of material, effort, resolve and resources. One thing to conscript, another issue altogether is the prowess of those troops in a do or die battle situation.
Take at least the winter to train, transport and disperse the 300K into the front line. Then the 300K have to engage an enemy that has had those winter months to regroup, rearm, entrench, rotate, replenish and refresh. Will be a battle between the experienced conscripted and motivated Ukrainians versus conscript Russians with possible motivational issues and no experience of a real live battlefield.
I get the impression that that this will be Putin’s last throw of the dice. If he issues the command to nuke Ukraine he has to ask; will de command be followed by his generals? And is he ready to have Moscow nuked in retaliation? Are the Russian people prepared to let Putin nuke Ukraine and in return have Moscow nuked? Another issue for Russia is the annexation of their only Northern warm water port. Leaving only access to the world through a hostile Black Sea and Mediterranean.
The winner in all this is China who will take Siberia for no effort to become self sufficient in oil, gas, coal and timber. Lose lose all round for the Russian Federation.
Only the removal of Putin, withdrawal from all of Ukraine and billions of dollars in repatriation will save what once was Russia.
New Zealand will be OK mid term until a self sufficient China comes a calling to take over the farm.
100% Gerrit!
“And is he ready to have Moscow nuked in retaliation?”
Would there be retaliation? Or would the would-be retaliaters be prepared for counter retaliation, by Russia, against them? They would not want to see their own cities nuked. I think, rather, that they would take the view that that they don’t really owe Ukraine anything and let “sleeping dogs” lie. Of course Putin’s name would be mud, but that’s the case at present anyway.
At present Putin is trying to get the Eastern areas of Ukraine recognized as Russian sovereign territory. If he succeeds, and if Ukraine continues to attack those areas, will be able to claim that he is defending Russia’s borders, and that may justify a nuclear strike as a last resort.
That is a Putin’s huge gamble; saying a local nuke is strategic but not tactical. He and his general staff will be gambling that the UK, French and USA politicians wont instruct their generals and admirals to ask the subs (25 in total) loitering in the Baltic and Mediterranean Seas to fire their tactical nukes in response. Not to mention the intercontinental land based missiles to target Russian targets.
There are no winners in a nuclear scenario. There is no difference in interpretation between a strategic or tactical nuclear strike.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tactical_nuclear_weapon
Worth remembering JFK famous words during the Cuban missile crises when the pentagon hawks wanted to “tactically” nuke Cuba.
“We will not prematurely or unnecessarily risk the costs of worldwide nuclear war in which even the fruits of victory would be ashes in our mouth-but neither will we shrink from that risk at any time it must be faced.”.
” He invaded with 150 000, this mobilisation gives him another 300 000.”
He thinks he got another 300,000, but I hear a lot of those got the hell out of town as soon as the call to arms was made. Meanwhile the average German worker is approaching 60 years old and the country faces demographic/economic collapse in 5 years when they all retire, so a couple of hundred thousand young Russian male refugees are just what they need right now. Perfect!
lol you still believe the regime media lies? Pathetic
Truly pathetic the ignorance shown by many commenters and commentators here. Fortunately as its little NZ, its of little consequence. At some point China as a courtesy might try to help NZ government understand reality.
Which part is lies MK? The initial force Putin used? You make sweeping statements like you are on the ground somewhere between Ukraine and Russia. I assume you are not disputing that Putin is calling up more troops? That doesn’t imply things are going well
One can’t really assume where one gets their information from to arrive at their opinion. That would be ill-informed. But by all means, speculate away, Mohammed Khan. Opinions are neither right nor wrong. Pathetic to opine otherwise imo
Grant Robinson seems to be spending a lot of time trying to convince voters to look at how bad National is so they do not look at how bad thinks are becoming under Labour . 8000 more people left the country than arrived last month as people see no future here . We are 4000 short in hospital nurses 1500 positions in correction staff 729 beds have been lost to aged people as not enough trained staff are available teachers are stressed university staff going on strike the armed forces are trying to attract people after so many left due to them being used as security at MIQ hotels.
The wheels are falling off and it is going to get worse with crime one of the few growth industries .
“8000 more people left the country than arrived last month”
And that’s a bad thing?
It is if you are looking for staff. My partners son in law works for a building firm that is desperate for staff in all fields and cannot keep up with the demand for their contracts. They pay to dollar but have few applicants. I see even McDonald’s are desperate for staff and they are offering NZQA and scholarships. Lack of staff equals lack of profit so lack of tax from business and staff.
What is the advantages tag of less people to the country.
We have dramatically less people than before covid and we have higher houses prices more children in poverty more living in cars.
The funny old thing trevor is that this country was a rather nice place when the population was around the 3 mill mark…now that opinion is perhaps of not much use in 2022 except to say–lets not make it worse.
It was a rather nice place when National were in charge.
@ Andrew – agree NZ would be better under National, but ACT would be way better.
Liability Luxon needs to go and David Seymour needs to be in charge of an ACT-National coalition, with National as the minority.
Don Brash did the ACT-National changeroo thing, so David Seymour could too.
David has way more personality than Don-Don did.
Unless you worked for a living.
David Seymour runs rings around my namesake, the other Luxon. ACT needs your party vote in 2023. We need ACT to get more party vote than National, so David can finish what its founders Richard Prebble and Sir Roger Douglas started.
Perhaps a result of overinflating our country with immigrants and a reliance on them for work since 2008. Perhaps we would have workers in all areas if National had invested in kiwis from 2008 . No use complaining now and the advantages of tagging less people into our country is to enable the massive and I mean massive underinvestment in infrastructure including housing(resulting in an ever-increasing number of those on the poverty line and in cars) to match our countries population. Or are you a supporter Nationals proposal of “doing more with less”? You are not going to correct faults that took 9 years to correct in 5.
House prices are decreasing now thanks to Labour if you are prepared to do your research rather than repeating a dogma mantra Trevor. I thought you were better than this.
Yesterday in Chch we went to buy a new home to move to .Our agent suggested $850000 as top dollar their agent we may have to go a little higher .It sold for $991000. That tells a story.
I believe they went up due to Labour
ahhh another of trevs ‘anecdotes’
It was probably sold at a loss Trevor. As I said , do your homework the average has dropped. They went down due to Labour.
I’ll make it easier…
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/472488/average-house-price-drops-below-1m-down-4-point-9-percent-in-past-three-months#:~:text=The%20downturn%20in%20the%20housing,the%20first%20time%20since%20September.&text=The%20national%20average%20house%20price%20fell%204.9%20percent%20over%20the,months%20ended%20July%20to%20%24989%2C790.
Wow Trevor that’s a big leap! Labour put ONE house price up by $61,000. I bet the owner of that house was pissed – off !
Pissed off with National for keeping his house price so low when National were in power for 9 years. Imagine how popular Labour will be with all house owners, if everyone’s house price went up by an average of $61,000?
No-brainer then, in both senses of the word.
There’s no pleasing some people, though, eh Trevor?
You piss-whinge and moan when prices go down “The sky is falling!”
You piss-whinge and moan when the price goes up “Heaven is getting further away!”
Maybe it’s because Christchurch is a better place to live than Auckland, Trevor, where people have to get up at 4.00am to beat the traffic?
People are selling in Auckland and moving to Christchurch and getting better, re-built, warm, dry houses and still have money left over and roads aren’t as congested. Supply and demand economics Trevor.
Believe what you like.
I live in Christchurch, visit Auckland regularly for business and would NEVER, ever want to move to Auckland. You can’t blame everything on Labour.
My business has picked up since Labour has been in power and I can no longer trust a National party that gets its 32 member caucus to have a vote of confidence in a report, without seeing the report, like they did with Uffindell!
You can’t give credit where it’s due either. I’m a National supporter, but will be giving Labour a go next election. Labour kept me and my elderly relatives alive during a world pandemic, when US hospitals were piling corpses in refrigerated containers.
Thanks Labour, you’ll get my vote because I’m still alive to do so! Jog on Trevor!
And every single person using ACTS model would support your partners son inlaw with a 7 day working week, no public holidays, actually no holidays at all. Every taxpayer will be bled to the point we get taken back to the darkest time for workers in our history 2008-2017.
Remember no money invested in infrastructure, real time wages and the reason for people’s demise today. All on the back of imported slave labour.
But don’t worry, vote National and Uncle Festus will print money for himself to the tune of $18,000 a year, whilst those not targeted get $104 a year. And people can’t understand why poverty and homelessness was started under Nact and even sadder the Maori party of that coalition.
Yep National are the party for all(1%) New Zealanders.
I suspect it would be good for the country’s health if the “golden arches” were to cease operations altogether.
Agree it is scary that McDonald’s are the biggest private employer in thecountry.
No that’s good thing. In fact, it would be even better if every taxpaying person left the country. After all, Blobberston will just print money for you.
I think Putin wants to drag things out and it will take time to mobilise his troops. Next thing is probably for a global recession to become obvious to everyone. US ISM manufacturing PMI looks like it will dip below 50 soon (other indicators have already flashed)
After awhile, Putin might declare war and launch small tactical nukes in sparsely populated areas which would make Russia an even greater global pariah, then send his new troops to the Donbas
If nuclear radiation reaches a Nato ally, then Nato would probably get directly involved and push Russia back
I think NATO will take out Putin the moment he tries anything nuclear. I wouldn’t be surprised if the CIA or Mossad has assassins in the Kremlin to do this.
If Putin “tries” anything nuclear, it will be too late.
and I THINK that my every wish will come true and I’ll ride on a pink unicorn that shits gold bars…’I think’ is literally just feel feels
Think – to exercise the powers of judgment, conception, or inference
Feel – to have a marked sentiment or opinion
and in the modern world of alternative facts the 2 have become conflated mr blobby….so your point is??
Your reply was predictable
Your attempt at cancelling the opinions of these posters has failed
well that’s just what your feel feels tell you to think
mr blobby
Well Martyn there is no danger of you being anything other than glass half empty. It’s not like loads of economists came out and said Robertson was dreaming (of course Frank will but that’s a default setting). In the article you provided a link to, Roberston acknowledges the US and China situations.
Oh! Was this when it all started or was it when Putin met Bill on his visit to Russia after Putin was first elected as President of the Russian Federation?
“On February 4, 2014, a recording of a phone call between Nuland and U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, Geoffrey Pyatt, on January 28, 2014, was published on YouTube. In their phone conversation, Nuland and Pyatt were having a discussion about the make up of next Ukrainian government. Nuland told Pyatt that Arseniy Yatsenyuk would be the best candidate to become the next Prime Minister of Ukraine. Nuland suggested the United Nations, rather than European Union should be involved in a political solution in Kiev, saying that “So that would be great, I think, to help glue this thing and have the U.N. help glue it and you know … fuck the EU”.
So? What’s your point? Nuland was an ass – I accept that.
The 300,000 are NOT arriving tomorrow. If they can find 300,000 who want to die, they will need to be trained to a greater or lesser degree and that takes time; at least next year.
And assuming they are as motivated and as well trained as the 150,000 that initially invaded, will these 300,000 perform any better with even less new equipment.
If you believe anything Putin says you are in need of a serious lobotomy. Stand up to the bully ffs.
Seeing as Ukraine has a force of 700,000…the 150,000 odd Russia has on the ground atm would suggest that another 300,000…would have a big effect on the conflict.
Yep Ukraine has a force of “700,000” if you count that now Woman up to the age of 60 are now being used for canon fodder, shit country 404 has been emptying the prisons, and sending their storm troopers to round anyone up that can hold a gun.
Highly dubious. Outdated equipment, dodgy logistics. antiquated tactics, they’re cannon fodder!
61K Ukrainian dead vs 5981 Russian. You were saying?
PreSumably the 61K includes civilians?
Given that those 300,000 are reservists they will have had military experience already- but a substantial number will default, and many will be in a poor state of fitness, add to that they will need to be brought up to speed by valuable frontline experienced NCOs and officers. Russia could put these troops into garrison situations quickly which does not require so much training. But these extra troops where ever they are deployed will still require logistical support in a modern war. The infrastructure for resupply of food, ammunition, fuel spare parts and secure communications seems to be a vulnerability for Russia in this conflict. Air power seems to be less decisive now and whomever can win the race- drone, plane, helicopter to move and support troops on the battlefield will have the advantage once the weather gets too bad for offensive warfare. I’d imagine the prospect of spending winter in a trench will be unattractive for these reservists who will likely text home how yet again supplies didn’t arrive.
The Russian Army doesn’t have NCO’s.
tom, junior lieutenants fulfil those rolls they just have different titles.
The first week of the Afghanikraine war proved the effectiveness of manpads (shoulder mounted SAMs) the secound week anti tank missiles, the third week artillery. Not so much boots on the ground.
Labour’s concern, optimism, interest, leadership…. is only ever for its own wealthy enclave. The rest of us aren’t really human, certainly not worth thinking about.
So it’s hardly surprising if Robertson’s thinking is a little insular. He’s probably glistening with pride at Ardern carrying a message for the super-rich William Windsor. Speaking at another glittering event packed with the rich and famous, flouting New Zealand’s hard-won independent stance, (again) fawning to the Americans and being used as the joint Nato/anti free-speech poster child.
So very traditional Labour, exactly what our forefather’s fought for. There must be a lot of churned-up grave-yards from all the turning and churning in graves.
Putin only ‘threatened nukes’ IF
IF
IF
the NATO Nazi proxies in Kiev used them.
It was the idiot Zelenski first uttered the nuclear word in Munich…remember Martyn? Before this part of the ongoing -since-2014 war took off in February.
Nuland also admitted to the existence of biolabs in the Ukraine (financed by Rosemont Seneca ie. Hunter Biden, who controls Joe’s every move.)
So Russia signals an extra 300,000 troops and a willingness to actually “unlimit” the war. I think it pertinent to remember 1918. The US army build up in France was a major factor in making Germany realise that they couldn’t win. The Royal Navy blockade after 4 years wrecked the German economy and starved the people.
Fast forward 104 years, same again. Russian numbers will crush any military hope Ukraine has whilst the self imposed embargo on Russian energy in the EU will destroy their economies.
Where are the statesmen? At this point a Bismark or Talleyrand would call time and work to establish the peace.
Russia, I think, would be willing to agree to peace, but Ukraine will agree only if Russia gives back (i.e. donates) conquered territories. Russia will not agree to that, so Ukraine will no doubt continue fighting. Does that make Ukraine the aggressor?
I think the Ukraine is the aggressor in the Donbass and that that has been countered by Russian aggression. But heck, there are so many layers going back to Tsarist and Communist times. Crimea was captured from local Tartars and settled by the Russians, as was Novorussia. They were never politically or ethnically Ukrainian. That didn’t stop the Communists adding them to an administrative unit that was based in Kiev. When the Soviet collapsed that area became subject to an exit based on those artificial boundaries so nobody was happy. Then of course we see Western aggression overlaid upon this mess as NATO moved East. There are no angels here.
… is being voiced on CNN. Whew. Thank goodness for that as you had me worried for a minute. Even in the bird-bath deep world that is today’s MSM, the CNN crowd stand out for their hysterical stupidity on a range of issues. That’s just one of the reasons their ratings are in the toilet and the recent firings of the likes of Stelter and others are a desperate, failed attempt to recover their glory days.
Honestly, just read the milblogs run by ex-infantry officers and you’ll get far better and more in-depth assessments than the hopeless cretins of CNN.
I wonder what the outcome will be with the referendum being held in the new Russia territories…??
Comments are closed.