New Roy Morgan Poll – Labour/Green/Māori Party Government


As TDB has been predicting, it’s a Labour/Green/Māori Party Government and latest Roy Morgan drives that home:

Labour 35.0% 
National 35.5% 
Greens 9.0% 
ACT 10.5% 
Maori 5.0% 

NZ First 1.5% 
TOP 1.0% 
New Conservatives 0.5% 

No one believed TDB when we argued the current political dynamics were causing a renaissance amongst Māori voters.

There has traditionally for many reasons been a large group of Māori who refuse to vote, but the visceral hatred towards Māori, the jaw dropping racist shit people will say openly now about Māori and the existential crisis a National/ACT Government represent towards Māori has suddenly awoken that Māori vote.

Part of this is the incredible work Māori health providers went to get the vaccination program running.

They reached out to the Māori community using their own unique connections and as they were vaccinating they were also enrolling people for the elections.

If ACT and National win power, they are going to destroy the Ministry of Māori Affairs and the disgraceful racism over 3 Waters and co-governance has spurred many Māori who traditionally didn’t vote to ensure they do vote.

TDB Recommends

The Māori Party have never reached 5% in any Poll before and the push back against the very racist diatribes against Māori has generated a unique problem for the Right, because the growing Māori vote (spurned on by a far younger demographic) is growing the voter pie rather than splitting it.

Labour have been overtly cautious and has refused to make transformative change because the Wellington Bureaucratic Elite refuse point blank to allow that, well with a Labour/Green/Māori Party, there are no internal checks to stop a genuinely populist Left wing agenda akin to Corbyn or Sanders from taking shape.

The Greens and the Māori Party should be meeting at the end of the year to decide a shared platform going into the 2023 election that they can force Labour to adopt.

This could be the greatest outcome for progressive politics since Savage.

Turns out there are political ramifications for being horrid and racist.

Good. Choke on that chocolate bar.

The danger now is that the extremists will see these results and start panicking that their racism isn’t enough to win the election and that political violence is next.

It will drive the polarisation and that in turn will provoke a stronger counter reaction.

As TDB has been pointing out for sometime, 2023 will be fought on who NZ frightened more by, an ACT/National Government or a Labour/Green/Māori Party Government.


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  1. Meh. More race-based systems just means more non-Maori leaving the nation and Iwiocracy triumphant in New Zimbabwe. I suppose you might get some “progressiive” stuff as Mugabe did, but over a wreck.

    • Y’know what actually cringe is? “Posturing like your ready to debate” while exclusively preying on lower tier belts and dodging real challengers who actually want a constitutional debate.

    • Agreed Tom – Zim is a classic example of where ethno-democracies end up. My earlier comment that Bomber was confusing “disgraceful racism over 3 Waters and co-governance” with ordinary people not agreeing with a dilution of our voting rights by the beltway elites – has regrettably been deleted.

    • Tom Hunter if you’re one of those ‘victims of Maori oppression’ than please don’t look back when you leave our beautiful shores. However you need not worry about NZ as we have the Indians’ from India to replace you snowflakes, have you ever heard of the Indo/Pacific region??

      • If it’s Indians you want Stephen maybe you should be the one leaving ‘our beautiful shores’ . . even more of them in India.

            • There are no barriers for foreigners who want to vote in an NZ election. Let’s get specific. What rights do you want to increase for your clicks or friends?

            • James+Brown The first New Zealanders were Maori and that not my opinion that was the opinions of the second lot of Europeans that visited our shores before the 8 October 1769. The link that I provided gives a comprehensive insight into our country history warts and all. And no I’m not more New Zealander than you I’m your equal and yes my ancestors are Maori and live thru myself and my childrens, childrens.

              • Big climb down on your earlier ‘I’m indigenous you’re just a citizen big difference’ comment then . .

      • Won’t be me. I did my OE work for fifteen years. It’ll be my kids, as they already made clear to me, and I don’t think doing Maoritanga on Hindus and Asians will work.

        • Well good riddance to your kids if they fuck off and leave our shores they won’t be missed especially if they possess the type of values and beliefs exhibited by a snowflake such as yourself. The Indians love Maori and give it a bit of time we shall Indian/Maori kids running our country!!

    • “just means more non-Maori leaving the nation”.. And that’s different from the last 70+ years how? As one who has spent more than half his adult life living, and working overseas, I can tell you that the numbers of kiwis who left to escape the ravages of Tory governments and their mindless adherence to exploitation economics, and racist politics, have not gone down at all over the decades I made a life I couldn’t have here in “Godzone”..
      What has changed is the number of Maori and Pacifica that are leaving, for the same reasons I did.. Why do you think the liberal government made so much political capital out of the 501 policy?
      Earth to the tory intelligentsia… History goes back more than last year… Even the stuff the makes you feel insecure, or ashamed… Get over it, and stop being part of the problem..

  2. In my opinion act would be about as effective as the greens are in government. They’ll get what they’re given by National. Act will rather be in government than out of it just like the greens. Martyn is scare mongering with his extremist talk. As for the labour green Maori combo, we’ve got that now and the Maori party isn’t even in Government. If you like what you’ve got that’s the way you’ll vote and you’ll most likely get it along with the Maori party. If that’s what happens you get what you deserve. You are living the dream.

    • Maori poverty, imprisonment rates and homelessness metastasized under the Nat- NZ-First-Maori coalition before this Labour govt was elected. Its a neoliberal democratic sham to think that the Maori party will help Maori out in anything!!

      • Stephen poverty may have got worse under National but let’s be fair, with the previous labour government Clark’s relationship with Maori was bad. Foreshore and Seabed comes to mind, the Urawera raids were I think under that government. Labour governments had just as many problems with Maori relations as National. The Maori party was born out of discontent from Clark’s government.

      • Nat NZf first Maori party coalition??

        Umm there’s never been a bat NZf first Maori party coalition.

        But I love reminding people that the nepotists in the Maori party supported the nepotists in the national party for 9 years and we’re even keen on working with super duper racist Brash and that working with national doesn’t mean working with Act because minor parties don’t do deals with each other only the major party in a coalition does deals with the minor parties.

        Anyone who thinks the Maori party is a vote for a labour govt and potentially either party is dreaming. The Maori party are getting a lot of votes from what Martin would call the lumpenproletariat , many of whome were Maori , because the Maori party met with these people and was anti mandate and the Maori partys founder called her a Nazi and a communist earlier in the year (despite being a former labour mp lol) oh and then the second female co-leader called the pm a genocidal tyrant and the third and current Maori party co leader accused the current govt of genocide, TWICE! the lumpenproletariat loved that and these people would be pretty pissed if they voted by proxy for what they call “jabcinda”

        Maori party may go with labour but they may also go with national and keep act out of cabinet.

        Don’t count the Maori party as a vote for a left wing govt when the only govts the party have ever given us are right wing ones and when previous and incumbent leaders are constantly accusing labour of genocide and fascism lol

        It could easily be another Nat minority govt with separate confidence and supply agreements from act and Maori party.

        • Maori Party wont go with a right wing Tory/Act party again – that was a disgraceful alliance especially for the less well-off population. Key, Joyce, English had invited the property speculators who made millions while they sold off social housing and filled the streets with the homeless. Maori Party must be ashamed at supporting those Tory policies. Out tupuna were spinning in their graves when the Maori Party went Tory. Even Hone Harawira was a tory – how embarrassing. Anyone but the right wing.

    • Since the year 2000 uncle Helens old 9 to 5, the UN development programe reported recently that global poverty had been halved. Sure there are reasons why poverty spiked in developed nations. One reason being the New Zealand relationship with China has been handled poorly. Another reason is we are getting the distribution of resources wrong.

      As a Maori I can tell you that we don’t like poverty as a concept. We don’t see poverty as a regional or cultural issue rather than an issue that effects everyone it touches. It’s the way Maori language and culture operates. Kind of like we believe that people but particularly the ideas and modes those people hold have a type of DNA that has a beginning. In the case of Maori the word poverty was imported by a foreign power. Before the first colonies Maori didn’t have a word poverty. it was sir Timoti Karitu when he was Professor of Maori Studies at Waikato Uni who transliterated poverty into pohara in the 60s-70s.

      I’m not trying to give you a history lesson. All I’m trying to say is that Maori are notn trying to make poverty worse. We want poverty solved and to do that we will need new, more worthy issues to solve like Nuclear proliferation, climate change and maybe even what’s behind the secound star to the right namely space exploration. How wonderful would that be if not only we were the first to master the Pacific Ocean but the solar system as well.

      • Got proof? Well yes Stephen, go to Roy Morgan poll site and look at the detail. 53% of people (highest ever) think NZ is going in the wrong direction. And, when you get into the detail, its across the board eg: Transcends gender and political leanings.

        • Fantail you’re not being oppress and today Maori are less oppressed than they were earlier in our country history ‘but’ there are residues of colonization that affect Maori today!! You’re example of ‘ism’ is faulty because you’re from the majority group which is pakeha. You can’t correctly comment on racism because you don’t experience this abominable act. And these polls are easily manipulated even the RoyMorgan poll.

  3. “3 more years of useless woke politics while our society continues to fall apart? Sounds great!”
    – Martyn Bradbury

  4. You have to realise that the Greens would love 1 or 2 million to leave as it makes achievement of their goals easier also. So they’d have no problem with this – until they enter a retirement home of course.

    • Tom Hunter the liberal Americans are coming here in droves leaving their country because of the social instabilities, school shootings, rising crime, corruptions, etc.. Oh and the fear of Trump being elected 2024.

      • yeah bit not anywhere near 2 million of them! FFS get a grip ! There are more than 2 million Indians busting their cojones to get into to NZ tho’. You’re such a fucking rabid drama queen Stephen.

        • Got proof Shona? You seem to like pushing your racial agenda as if you’re somehow the victim of Maori Oppression when it doesn’t exit. Cry me a river snowflake!!

        • On a serious note if you and your ‘whanau’ I mean family don’t like our beautiful country then ‘Europe’ seem to be a destination that would be comparable with your values and beliefs? However I wouldn’t move there this coming winter as you know the Ukraine situation and the energy cost has risen 80% thanks in part to comrade Putin.

          • Oh sweetie, I already have Bertie as a stan, although he only follows me around screaming “Rich Prick, Rich Prick” so having you screaming “Wascist, Wascist” will be a change.

            • Tom Hunter its your group running around like snowflakes boldly claiming that they’re suffering from racism when they don’t know what racism means!!

    • ” You have to realise that the Greens would love 1 or 2 million to leave as it makes achievement of their goals easier also.”
      Oh wait , you really believe that… baahahahahaha!

    • That’s not the way that reducing climate change works.

      The higher the average income, the less of the natural world humanity has to lean on.

  5. Why is it racist to say you don’t agree with cogovernance.?

    It wouldn’t matter who the group was getting the extra weight to their vote, I still wouldn’t agree with it

    • Because the ‘magic bullet’ for Maori is to label anyone who disagrees with them as a racist . . works wonders and results in (ironically) a whole lot of racist policies etc favouring Maori.
      Expect that I will now be labelled a racist but f**k it – it’s only a word after all . .

    • I believe it the anti-Maori sentiment that been apart of our country since the introduction of Pakeha with their racial superiority complex. It’s the sentiments behind co-governance which Martyn is alluding too IMO.

        • Tom Hunter, You seem an unstable individual?? Are you OK? You do know that ‘Pakeha’ have only existed in our country for 182 years not long in the scheme of things. It only took them 23 years from the signing of the TOW to take the country from Maori and place it in European title and racism was the key to keeping it in their title and its reflected today. Hope that answers your rabid response?

          • You seriously think there were no Europeans in NZ prior to the Treaty of Waitangi?

            And this from the self-possessed expert on NZ history as well . . where do you think the muskets come from in the pre-1840 Musket Wars?

            The bottom of a kumara pit?

      • Wheel, they’re triggered snowflakes they’ll even claim that they are suffering ‘Institutional racism’ and that Maori are oppressing them with ‘race base’ funding and forcing the Maori language on them that threatens their securities and standards of life????

    • Agree but in this country, some Maori and the far left have equated – Commitment to democracy with Racism.

      Unfortunately, this is the the sort of thought that comes from a distrusting mind. If someone has a chip on their shoulder (whether their life experience makes this likely or whether it is in in their nature) then they frame everything they see as an ‘ism’. We have all been in places where someone is useless at their job and eventually gets pressured into leaving or is sacked. Its not great but sometimes necessary. Often the employee that gets let go refuses to see that they were inadequate or contributed to the situation and the refrain is usually something like – You only sacked me because I am a woman, trans, indian, have a disability etc

      The anti co governance theme has activated many Maori to think it is an anti Maori plot. It is not but the people calling everyone else racist sew division and they exacerbate the problem until it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

      Case in point, we have been in the top 5 to 20%(declining) of earners in NZ for decades, dropping now because of our choices and because we are approaching retirement. I have never ripped anyone off, not invested in housing, avoid tax or do things that we think are harmful to others. All our good quality second hand stuff is given away usually to young Maori. In local elections we vote for Maori and Pacifica candidates and those who promise low income housing or focus. We donate substantially to Foodbanks.

      This year, as a family we are voting for any candidate who stands against 3 Waters, Super city and local government reform. Why? Because I believe in both equal suffrage and local representation. I will not be voting for low income or ethnic candidates as the stakes are too high. I have had to choose between championing the underdog and championing our democracy. The decision was made easier because I am now called a racist because I dont support what this Govt frames as ‘CO Governance’

      I have re-evaluated the way we live and gift. Its pretty awful when you realise the people you have tried to care about (at expense to yourself and family) dont even respect you, perhaps even writing off your efforts as paternalistic white guilt.

    • Firstly I don’t think it makes you racist to say you don’t agree with co governance. How are Māori getting extra weight for their vote? Because there is Māori representation on a boards that sets the direction of entities that looks after water infrastructure?

      The thing that makes me laugh about people like XXX is that they scream racist like co governance rights are being given (for some specific resources) to a race that have had it all their own way. It’s very convenient to forget why settlements and the like have come about.

  6. Well what a lot of sad sac comments, what’s a matter its only one poll your masks have dropped he he he. This country was founded on racism and patriarchy. PIs and Asians standing for local councils are having their billboards defaced with their heads chopped of and their eyes gouged out and racist shit written all over them. These groups need to stick together to crush some of the white back lash arising in our country. One dominant group has had there way for far too long and it hasn’t been good for everyone. And if they ever let the 16 years of age group vote they will be another group who won’t stand for all the racist divisive rubbish happening in this country.

    • Agree 100% the younger age group is definitely a lot more assimilated and sure not putting up with the bullshit push-back over co governance. Most of them have friends of multiple race so the white pride crowd are in for a shock.

  7. Stop talking kaka xstraight who has had the power and whose systems do we have in place in our country and who has mostly benefitted from this Eurocentric monopoly. Many standing for local councils are representative of the communities they live in and they deserve a fair chance not to have their billboards destroyed by small minded racist who have their heads down a rabbit hole. Pakeha NZers need to stand up and speak out against the rising tide of racism, discrimination and patriarchal bullshit in our country and say this is not acceptable not in this day and age.

    • Happy to say it defacing asian billboards is unacceptable. Dont have problem with some kinds of cogovernance but losing one man one vote is unacceptable. If you dont have one man one vote you may aswell have one king one vote.

      • Joseph liberal democracy is also the tyranny of the majority one of the reasons how Maori lost access to their land and to its resources. Their must be a solution to giving Maori some sort of aspiration in their own country don’t you agree?

        • Stephen…..there is a solution to helping Māori…It’s called getting a basic education , learning a skill that will help a person get a well paid job , and working hard at that job…..I know it’s not everyone’s cup of tea and some people have done this and still struggle to pay the bills….This is what Māori leaders should be telling their people instead of complaining at the system …..Perhaps the top dogs could set an example and roll up their sleeves, and get their hands dirty and do a hard days work….

          • Not disagreeing with your solution of meritocracy that not the issue discussed its this negative characterization of Maori and how ‘liberal democracy’ is weaponized to further marginalize Maori and our significance in NZ that not appreciated and apparently there are a lot of maori commentators defending our culture on TDB post.

          • Robs Mob, oh if it was that simple. 68% of those with a mental health diagnosis are overproportionately represented by Maori. Those suffering from psychosocial trauma won’t necessarily ” get an education ” such as the trauma they have suffered.
            I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt that you have no understanding of the trauma they have suffered and that in a large portion of cases education can’t be achieved. Trauma they suffered has a lifetime consequence. Fetal Alcohol Syndrome just one example.
            Some who ignore this information and continue with the education argument would be considered ignorant.

      • Of course Joseph if we abandon one person one vote we have abandoned democracy and that’s not something the majority want.
        Never thought I would live to see the day New Zealanders debating one person one vote.
        How has this come about? May I suggest it’s a bi-product of the incumbent Labour Government.

    • Don’t get cut up by xstraight he’s a bigoted gaslighter makes outrageous claims of being a victim of racism when he clearly doesn’t know the meaning of the word.

  8. Interesting result – before or after the good doctor meltdown?

    Remember folks approximately 12 months out till election therefore not massively relevant.

    Interestingly over 30% of women 18-49% are voting for either the Greens or Labour. THAT IS A LARGE NUMBER of this demographic moving away from establishment parties. Something to watch over the next few months to see if a trend.

  9. Joseph home owners can have many votes for the different councils if they own homes in different areas is that fair?

    • If you dont allow that in local body elections then you are in a situation of taxation without representation. Maori who own land and property under different councils get many votes same as any landowner. I’m not sure multiple votes in this situatiin is entirely fair but its not racial discrimination.

    • Unfortunately Covid, the next best approach which was introduced in the Uk on the grounds of fairness, was/is the poll tax. Everyone living in the area pays per head. Look how well that turned out. Lots of poor people got a lot poorer and there were riots.

      But if you can come up with something that is both democratic and economically reasonable then I’m sure the world would listen.

    • if they are paying rates in both jurisdictions/districts is it fair for them not to be represented???
      No taxation without representation …now where have I heard that before?????

    • Covid is pa. If property owners have to pay council rates in different locations, then it is fair that they are entitled to vote in the local council elections for those areas.

  10. The White Fragility book written by an academic in social studies psychology named ‘Robin D’Angelo’ I recommend is a must read for Pakeha and non-pakeha wishing to know more about their insecurity in our ever coloring NZ. She explains white peoples triggers when sensitive highly charge subject like race are discussed. I found it a fascinating read, but like anything her material has its detractors mostly from white people. Also New Zealand history or world events in history is an important tool to combating misinformation and radicalism IMO.

    • Oh gawwdd….But of course “Stephen” is heavily into White Fragility. Here’s Lefty leftist Matt Taibbi who is, as usual, not gentle:
      DiAngelo isn’t the first person to make a buck pushing tricked-up pseudo-intellectual horseshit as corporate wisdom, but she might be the first to do it selling Hitlerian race theory…

      DiAngelo’s writing style is pure pain. The lexicon favored by intersectional theorists of this type is built around the same principles as Orwell’s Newspeak: it banishes ambiguity, nuance, and feeling and structures itself around sterile word pairs…

      Writers like DiAngelo like to make ugly verbs out of ugly nouns and ugly nouns out of ugly verbs (there are countless permutations on centering and privileging alone)…

      • Tom Hunter, Nice copy and paste, guess you can’t debate on your own merit and you sound triggered? Like I’ve explained to others that don’t like her material which has been well research including POC or in her case black people into her findings which is important as this affects them more so than white people.

    • I also loved his take on her “argument” that twists the story of Baseball player Jackie Robinson inside out:
      Robinson’s story moreover did not render “whites, white privilege, and racist institutions invisible.” It did the opposite. … Robinson’s story, on every level, exposed and evangelized the truth about the very forces DiAngelo argues it rendered “invisible.”

      It takes a special kind of ignorant for an author to choose an example that illustrates the mathematical opposite of one’s intended point, but this isn’t uncommon in White Fragility, which may be the dumbest book ever written. It makes The Art of the Deal read like Anna Karenina.

  11. Yes I do but that solution is not abandoning one man one vote. Here are some one man one vote abandoment scenarios. Obviously I dont support any of them but there are people who do. One born&bred one vote. One migrant no vote. ~ One land owner one vote. One renter no vote. ~ One ratepayer one vote. One nonratepayer no vote. ~ One banker one vote. One citizen no vote. ~ One citizen one vote. One prisoner no vote. ~ One settler one vote. One native no vote. ~ One man one vote. One woman no vote. ~ One maori one vote. One tau iwi no vote.

    One man one vote is the solution to the above problems. The problem of its abandonment is greater than finding some other cogovernance mechanism.

    • buhahahaha Liberal democracy are on a decline globally ‘Joseph’ keep up with the times lol you’re becoming a scratch record, and you never really answered my initial question on your earlier comment how a democratic process alienated Maori from their lands and resources is the same troupe you’re trothing out of your cakehole!!

    • Joseph people like yourself that advocate ‘Liberal democracies’ also weaponize it to marginalise (Micro-aggression) minorities in their respected countries. ACT leader Seymours, NZ-First Winston, are prime example of weaponizing ‘Liberal democracy’ also this narrative feeds into the belief that Maori don’t have a specially place in our country which further nourishes anti-Maori sentiments in a Pakeha dominated society. Maori are tired of catering to Pakeha insecurities, they’ve been doing that for too long which has unforeseeably succour peace and stability in NZ/AO.

      Time for Pakeha to come too the table with solutions instead of being an obstacle to progress.

      • NZ Europeans probably too busy funding hospitals / schools / roads etc and getting on with their lives without blaming their own failings on a colonialism that happened well over a hundred years ago to come to your hypothetical table Stephen.

        • James+Brown. Clearly maori are doing the same as Maori pay taxes wouldn’t you agree???? We are debating this post so don’t really understand your problem with myself exercising ‘Free Speech’?? You know what we allow ourselves under a liberal democracy!!

  12. What has been progressive about the last 5 years .The country is going backwards in my opinion but there are obviously just as many who are happy with the status quo. I suspect many of those are not so much happy with Labour but do not want National back who they see as worse at tackling the problems of the Nation . I fail to see what MARY and Greens would add to the pot to make NZ a happier and less divided country

  13. It is sinking in at last for some of the codger gen. at least, that their days in terms of political influence are coming to an end, and definitely by the 2026 General Election. A class showdown is nearing one way or another for some very obvious reasons.

    In terms of Parliamentary politics, people have learned exactly where the NZ Labour Caucus stands–so a GLM Govt. is the only option for 2023 if the filthy natzos are to be sidelined. BUT… will Jacinda “Rule out” Te Pāti Māori…I certainly would not rule that out!

  14. Can’t stand how Jacinda has enriched the rich but how can anyone vote for a turd who will cancel taxes on his 7 rental properties? Sick conflict of interest should be illegal. Labour for me whilst holding my nose.

  15. This poll appears a reflection of where NZ is at. ACT have tanked at 10.5 as have National 35.5. These two parties policies align but with no other parties of similar ilk, NZ is extremely fortunate that this coalition will never be able to form.

  16. Heh. I apologize for my white baby:
    Her refusal to listen to her Antiracist Baby audiobook and cry instead further demonstrates the long road we as parents must travel in order to deconstruct her ingrained racist identity. I tried reading passages from White Fragility to calm her, but she only wails harder. My friends claim it’s colic, but what do they know? A much likelier explanation is that she’s expressing her white rage at being confronted with her racism.

  17. I think that’s about the 10th time you’ve used that line in this debate without noticing that it never gets a rise out of anybody. And clearly satire is foreign to you.

    To be fair, that’s not surprising given you love deAngelo’s silly book. 😉

  18. Tom Hunter its called expanding your knowledge instead of echo chambering from your own circle of influence. If you can’t expand your horizons then mate I feel for you and your children. Hope you can get the help you need?

    • And your earlier comment of “Poor snowflake do you want a tissue? Buhahahahaha” is an example of your ‘expanded knowledge’ is it Stephen?

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