German words frequently appear in tactics manuals, one of them is kesselschlacht, or ‘cauldron battle’. It describes the situation in which an enemy force is surrounded, cut-off from supplies and help. Unable to retreat the surrounding force can turn up the ‘heat’ forcing their enemy to either surrender or be destroyed. Slowly and inexorably the tension is building around Kherson, as the Ukrainians create the conditions for kesselschlacht and the Russians slow down operations in other parts of Ukraine to redirect resources to this area.
The campaign is coming to a critical point in the south because at operational level the Ukrainians appear to have ‘shaped’ Russia into a dangerous position. First, they fought a defensive battle in the north-east degrading Russian forces around Severodonetsk and Lysyschansk. Concurrently, they threatened the Russian supply line that runs from Belgorod to Izyum, together these operations forced the Russians to concentrate forces in this sector reducing their capabilities elsewhere, that allowed river crossings in the south and movement of Ukrainian forces from Mykolaiv east towards Kherson.
Recently, to counter the Ukrainian advance from Mykolaiv, Russia massed 20-25,000 soldiers on the west side of the Dnipro River. Meanwhile, Ukraine attacked the bridges crossing the Dnipro River using long range artillery. The bridges are now damaged enough to prevent movement of large vehicles and significant quantities of supplies. On 13 August 2022, the United Kingdom Ministry of Defence confirmed that Russian soldiers west of the Dnipro River could only be resupplied with pontoon bridges or ferries. The situation is serious for the Russians, while the bridges are unusable, they have a large force ‘cut off’ and isolated unable to easily retreat or be re-supplied.
On 20 August 2022, the Institute for the Study of War reported that the Russians counter attacked north from Kherson and east towards Mykolaiv and were defeated. This indicates that the Ukrainians have sufficient force to be able to prevent the Russians ‘breaking out’ to the north or west.
Now a Ukrainian campaign targeting ‘depth’ targets in Crimea is underway. By attacking Russian targets far behind the frontline, the Ukrainians are continuing to ‘shape’ the battle in Kherson. The Ukrainians are demonstrating to the Russians caught on the west bank of the Dnipro River that the area behind them is unsafe. More importantly that their commanders will need to decide between relieving them or protecting Crimea.
The Black Sea coast is the Ukrainian advance’s right flank. Now that Ukraine has effectively driven the Black Sea Fleet from the campaign, Russian naval intervention supporting their troops with either bombardments and air defence cover or conducting amphibious operations is no longer a significant threat. Even though the recently appointed Black Sea Fleet commander, Admiral Viktor Sokolov told a group of young officers this week that the fleet was completing all tasks assigned to it and that twelve new vessels and more planes are expected to arrive this year. The reality is quite different, destruction of ships and aircraft forcing the remainder of the fleet to retreat to the far side of Crimea, out of drone and HIMARS range and unable to influence the battle near Kherson. Reinforcement of the Black Sea Fleet is highly unlikely, access to the area being controlled by the Montruex Convention that limits access by warships through the Bosporus. Likewise, without naval power the threat to Odessa diminishes allowing more Ukrainian force to be deployed attacking Kherson.
However, the most important point is that tactics is not about equipment or technology; it is about people. And, at this time it is important to put ourselves in the position of the average Russian soldier sitting on the west bank of the Dnipro. The key tenet of Manoeuvre Warfare doctrine (that the Ukrainians have been taught by American and British trainers since 2014) is to fight the enemy’s will to fight rather than trying to destroy them in detail. So it is important that we understand the individual Russian soldier’s will to fight.
So let’s think about the situation from the point of view of the average Russian infantryman, sitting in a trench, truck or armoured personnel carrier outside Kherson. Perhaps, they are a ‘contract soldier’ a professional who joined the army relatively aware of the risks or maybe they are a conscript, an 18–19-year-old kid forced to join the army after finishing high school. A few will be battle hardened veterans or mercenaries. Regardless of their motivation for joining the army, many started their war advancing on Kiev and were forced to withdraw. Then they were rushed to the east, fighting hard either in Donbas or around Mariupol. Now they have been rushed west, crossed the Dnipro River and after six months of relentless military activity; without leave, poorly supported logistically and facing an implacable and resilient enemy they are cut off on the opposite side of the river from their support.
Further, we know that Russia’s tactical leadership is not good. Numerous issues with junior commanders have been highlighted especially their lack of initiative, at higher levels things are no better. The succour and support that junior soldiers could expect from their leadership in more effective armies does not appear to be evident in the Russian army. Instead, bullying and ‘kangaroo courts’ aiming to coerce or embarrass soldiers to fight seem to be the norm rather than positive reinforcement and there is lots of evidence that Russian motivation is low and that morale is poor.
Finally, Russian casualties especially amongst frontline soldiers have been horrendous. This month Colin Kahl, a United States Under Secretary for Defence stated “I think it’s safe to suggest that the Russians have probably taken 70 or 80,000 casualties in less than six months”. It is estimated that 20,000 of these casualties are dead. The 2003 Invasion of Iraq provides context. The war was similar in scale and also fought conventionally, large armoured formations and lots of artillery meeting each other in battle. The United States deployed approximately 450,000 soldiers supported by about 50,000 United Kingdom and allied soldiers against Iraq’s strength of approximately 1 million soldiers. Iraq’s army was defeated in about six weeks for the cost of 139 American lives. Even during the twenty-year slog in Afghanistan the United States lost 2420 killed, a tenth of Russia’s losses in the first six months of this war.
The high casualty rate doesn’t just effect morale, it effects everything. Imagine that in the last six months your Boss had been replaced two or three times, along with half the people in your team. Would your office be running efficiently and well? Probably not, now imagine that instead of taking better jobs or resigning your workmates had been killed or maimed. In simple terms, there is no way that the Russians west of the Dnipro are a capable and motivated fighting force ready to face a long, hard defensive battle with little hope of reinforcement or supply.
The situation is not good for the Russians, in fact it looks like they will lose a large force in Kherson. The real question is how long the reduction of the Russian garrison will take. Retiring head of the United Kingdom’s military intelligence community, Lieutenant General Sir James Hockenhull stated last week that “Neither Russia nor Ukraine is likely to achieve any decisive military action in Ukraine this year”. Retired United States generals, Ben Hodges and Mark Hertling on the other hand are more ‘bullish’ and have both made statements recently commenting on the weakness of Russia’s position. It should be noted that their opinions are likely to be less well-informed. The Ukrainians themselves are talking about offensive operations in the next few months, President Zelensky stating after the Saky air base attack the war “started in Crimea and will finish in Crimea’’.
Although it is impossible to be certain, it seems that there is a larger game being played out. That Ukraine, mentored by supporting nations is working to an operational level plan; first ‘fix’ the Russians in the north, allowing manoeuvre in the south and creation of the opportunity for a decisive battle. The geography of Kherson is likely to have been carefully chosen, likewise key parts of the United States support being long-range artillery and HIMARS probably fits into that planning.
The intent of the manoeuvre in the south seems to be to lure a substantial force of Russians across the Dnipro River. The defensive operation in the north-east and the threat to the Belgorod – Izyum supply line are an economic way of making sure that not too many Russians can be deployed south. In the south, the aim is likely to ‘cut off’ a bite-sized chunk of Russian forces near Kherson; small enough that if they fight, they can be defeated but large enough to be a crippling loss. However, it is more likely that the Ukraine’s aim is for the majority of Russians in the area to surrender rather than fight. To defeat the force’s will to fight, rather than to waste Ukrainian lives attacking a city.
When could this plan culminate? It is hard to tell and a recent independent news article in Ukraine highlighted some weakness in the Ukrainian military for instance; lack of counter-battery fire control experience, diminishing stocks of 152mm ammunition for older, Soviet-era artillery and difficulties with control of artillery fire. So making predictions is difficult. However, it still seems likely that Ukraine will be aiming to move before winter because if they do not, they give the Russians till February next year when the ground freezes to continue their subjection and annexation of captured territory. Further, the longer they leave transitioning to an offensive the more opportunity for Russia to rest, rearm and re-organise. Therefore, it is likely that in the next month or six weeks we will see significant activity in the war most likely increased Ukrainian pressure on Kherson trying to force a surrender, possibly an attack or even a Russian withdrawal from Kherson.
Ben Morgan is a tired Gen X interested in international politics. He is TDB’s Military analyst.
Excellent commentary! Keep them coming.
If I was a Russian soldier I would be talking in earnest to my comrades and stitching together a white flag. No way would I want to trade my life to bolster Putin’s ego!
A pity Zelensky’s stormtroopers aren’t as effective military as Ben is lying to himself and methheads like you.
Wake up on the wrong side of your cage this morning Mohammed?
You filth are very mad when you can’t put Muslims in cages, aren’t you, zionist?
In Chechnya and Syria Russia and its allies puts Muslims in trenches.
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=tadamon+massacre&qpvt=tadamon+massacre&view=detail&mid=EC5894006CEEB94A0CD1EC5894006CEEB94A0CD1&&FORM=VRDGAR
Mr Khan looks very much like just another russian propaganda bot trying to trigger divide. For more information about the subject see https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-41982569
Hear hear…bar the insult
Sorry but why is Ben lying? Are you saying there have been no Russian casualties?
Hi Ivan
The Rubin up
What is the most important thing in the world? “He tangata, he tangata, he tangata”
And the Ukrainians are loosing them by the thousands along with territory sadly which Ben seems to not acknowledge.
Pat, O’dear, you spelt ‘big pharma, big pharma, big Pharma’ wrong buddy. Nice try though, for someone who claims to be a human rights activist. Pro war too.
Give me a break. The pharma industry is responsible for the situation in the Ukraine?
Wheel, the same people who worship big pharma also worship the military industrial complex. Those who call themselves human rights activists are usually the opposite.
What utter drivel.
But you’re right. I had noticed that many of the same people who support Russia’s blood thirsty invasion of Ukraine are also antivaxxers.
Support one conspiracy theory it is but a small step to support them all.
9/11 was an inside job? The moon landings were faked?
What else?
Have I forgotten anything?
Agree Pat. Time will tell, it is very muc about the will to keep fighting. Any war is, that and who you fear most.
the notorious Tornado Battalion https://thegrayzone.com/2022/07/30/zelensky-militants-convicted-child-rape-torture-military/ , Azov, Aidar, C14, etc etc etc …..
Ukraine has a new name appearing among their fascist military groups, with the suitable flesh eating name of Kraken ,,,
Remember over 70% of Ukraine voted for ‘peace deal’ Zelinsky ….
… These betrayed voters are now the conscripts having their lives thrown away in hopeless one sided suicide meat grinder warfare.
Unsurprisingly abandonment of positions and ‘unauthorized’ retreats to preserve their lives are common ,,,, and dangerous to the Zelinsky/Nato regime.
https://rumble.com/v1gl3mj-ukraine.-military-summary-and-analysis-19.08.2022.html
At about the 3 minute mark of this video we hear that Kraken is acting as judge, jury and executioners for unauthorized retreat/deserters/cowardice.
It reminds me a bit of the SS in Nazi Germany…. how they were ‘holding the line’, when they were going down.
Slava ukraine indeed.
You don’t have to like Vlad to despise Nazis. When Vlad gets rid of them we will all be better off, especially the residents of Ukraine who these scum have lorded it over.
What about the Nazis in Putin’s own nest? I refer to Alexander Dugin who is an admirer of Hitler. Not to mention the late but not lamented Vladimir Zhirinovsky.
If you believed in this nonsense, Ben, you would make wagers based on it.
You won’t
And it was a dropped cigarette but that blew up the Crimean airbase!
Good comment Ben. The level of vitriol and hysteria from the invested points to your accuracy. You know,”The lady doth protest too much, methinks” kind of thing.
Cheers.
Good comments seem to set of the Ivans on here.
oh ben you mean like stalingrad or any of the other soviet ‘deep operations’ that kinda thing? I think the russians have that taped.
Excellent tactical appraisal @ B.M.
And now, lets attempt to understand WHY Russia is kicking the shit out of Ukraine.
I believe Russell Brand does an excellent job of answering that question here.
20 minutes well spent in my opinion .
YouTube
“How did a US-backed, far right–led revolution in Ukraine help bring us to the situation we find ourselves in today with regard to the Russian invasion? ”
https://youtu.be/CxMVcrvtqqs
Oliver Stones Documentary “Ukraine on fire” circa 2016 does an excellent job exposing the illegal Western backed coup in Ukraine leading to the current consequences and should be compulsory viewing for a better understanding, of course it was banned by YouTube for “Glorifying violence” AKA exposing the truth.
If you don’t read the newspaper you’re uninformed. If you read the newspaper you’re Mis-informed.
Mark Twain.
I had a smile on my face after reading that Germany, Poland, Ukraine, Netherlands, the Baltic States, France, ALL have to buy huge amounts of coal for winter heating…no more Russian heating oil and gas…
3 months to go to winter…then Ukraine being forced to accept Peace on Russia’s terms.
At least the European kids can get into dads car safely!
‘sanctions against russia will bring them to their knees’
them, in this case being europe
HUZZAH
best own goal since brexshit.
More claptrap from the pro-Putinists. They ignore the fact that many supporters of Putin are Nazis. Alexander Dugin is an example. Now Russian partisans are active, watch out Putin!
To the beyond the Pale Cantabrian – pokokohua.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/08/rip-darya-dugina.html
Partisans? more like Ukraine state sponsored terrorism. Shall we discus Amnesty internationals report on Ukraine using civilian’s as shields Cantabrian? How about CNNs documentary about the Neo Nazi nationalist camps? Lets start slow Cantabrian so you can keep up, Ukrainian Nazis tying up naked Roma to lamp-posts, opposition partied banned, extra judicial killings including their own soldiers, pick a subject which you can pretend to be “Informed”
Ho Ho Ho Finngrin there is no evidence that the SBU did it. It is more likely a warning to Putin from the patriotic Russians who are torching recruitment offices. As for that Moon from Alabama site, most of those letters were obviously written by Kremlin trolls. Don’t you know agitprop when you see it? I don’t know who did it. You don’t know who did it. Putin doesn’t know who did it. The fog of war prevails.
Yeah you’re right Cantab. “Sarcasm” except The terrorist was doxed and outed as being a Ukraini neo Nazi before the terrorist attack never mind She was caught on video outside the victims apartment. Stick your head in the sand Mate, if you dig deep enough you might find your IQ
Finngrin so you know who did it. Top marks fountain of all knowledge!
What’s more, why did Dugin change cars? He must have been tipped off and sacrificed his daughter for a Russian false flag operation.
projection canterbury-lite?.
You are as stupid as canterbury pig shit to state your personal and rather degenerate wild conspiracy as a “must have” fact.
Sicko
And you B Awakesky are an idiot who thinks a torrent of abuse will suffice as argument. You are the lowest of the low!
Paranoia. You do realize that Dugin is NOT close to Putin and has been on the outside for a long time contrary to the false MSM narrative. One current theory is his Daughter was about to do a major exposure on Ballingcat which she alluded too a few days before her Murder. Highly unlikely he sacrificed his daughter whom he was very close to. Idiot.
Half way from Kherson to Odessa is Myklaev a major port. Its on the west bank of the Dneiper. The Russians are there, 50kms west of where the offensive was supposed to happen. Read the map.
Thanks for your specific insights, Ben, which are important. The violence of Russia is what sheets home for me, the terrible damage to Ukraine. Putin thought he could walk in but afterwards he was willing for unlimited violence to maintain … himself.
Total war
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Photo:
Ruins of Warsaw’s Napoleon Square in the aftermath of World War II
Total war is a type of warfare that includes any and all civilian-associated resources and infrastructure as legitimate military targets, mobilizes all of the resources of society to fight the war, and gives priority to warfare over non-combatant needs…..
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_war
There are only two ways that Russia can extricate itself from Kesselschlacht.
The first would be to sue for peace.
The second is to wage Total War as defined by Wikipedia.
Now that Russia Federation has found it’s very own version of Horst Wessel my expectation is that the Putin regime will rachet up the pressure on Russia to transition to total war.
Total War
Full conscription of fighting age men and women, full mobilisation of civilian industry and agriculture for the war effort. total crackdown on all internal dissent. The rationing of food and supplies to the civlian population to prioritise feeding the conscript army.
Total War
…..strict rationing for civilians, such as limiting vehicle usage and the purchase of luxury items.
….the magnitude of the transition to wartime production, there were about 3 million automobiles manufactured in the U.S. in 1941. During the entire war, only 139 additional cars rolled off the assembly lines.
Instead, automakers built guns, trucks, tanks and aircraft engines.
examples are:
The Lionel toy train company started producing items for warships, including compasses.
Ford Motor Company produced B-24 Liberator bombers.
Alcoa, the aluminum company, produced airplanes.
The Mattatuck Manufacturing Company, which had made upholstery nails, switched to making cartridge clips for Springfield rifles.
https://www.defense.gov/News/Feature-Stories/story/Article/2128446/during-wwii-industries-transitioned-from-peacetime-to-wartime-production/
Pat, Putin can’t mobilise because he would have to admit that the ‘special operation’ is actually a war. Then many Russians would realise the truth that has been hidden from them. It is possible that the assassination of Dugina was a false flag operation by the FSB to stir up anti-Ukraine sentiment.
Who here thinks imperialism doesn’t pay?
Russia now controls at least $12.4 trillion worth of Ukraine’s energy, metal and mineral deposits, report says
Brian Evans Aug 12, 2022, 4:47 AM
…..Moscow controls 63% of Ukraine’s coal deposits, 11% of its oil, 20% of its natural gas, 42% of its metals, and 33% of its rare earths.
… Russia has seized 41 coal fields, 27 natural gas sites, 14 propane sites, nine oil fields, six iron ore deposits, as well as several sites for titanium, zirconium, strontium, lithium, uranium, and gold.
Another imperialist energy war?
….Ukraine still has control over most of its oil ans gas reserves. But the vast majority of its natural resource wealth that’s under the Kremlin’s control is comprised of coal deposits….
…..about 30 billion tons of hard coal deposits worth $11.9 trillion are in Russian-controlled parts of Ukraine
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-seizure-ukraine-energy-metals-oil-gas-coal-deposits-secdev-2022-8?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sf-bi-main&fbclid=IwAR0oStopx2p8TflgRJrbz6ZRT2z5aJGpsDJXBQ51k5sNqX8OHFoxMNYYSXo
If Russia decides to exploit Ukraine’s coal reserves we might as well kiss the climate good bye
So one imperial power uses another minion (full of recognised Nazi thugs) to fight a proxy war and loses. And the victor gains some fossil fuels that the former would have demanded and burned anyway. Bloody hell Pat, get your brain in order. Are you actually a US imperialist?
Nick J, can’t you get it into your thick skull that there are more Nazis and fascists in Russia than Ukraine. Then again you just parrot Putin’s propaganda for him and facts aren’t important.
At least Nick J. has made some sort of progress. And is starting to realise that the Putin regime is an aggressive imperialist power, rather than hapless victim.
Good to see Nick. Keep up the good work. We will make a leftist of you yet.
So Pat you are what any imperialist would call a “useful fool”. You claim to be Marxist and anti imperialist yet here you are supporting an American capitalist neo Con war effort in a client Nazi controlled state. Good start Pat. Now you tell me Russia has more Nazis…. is that because they kicked out your Marxist mates after that failed “experiment”?
It is great Nick that you admit that the Putin regime is imperialist Maybe you will go a little further and admit that Only a defeat in Ukraine will curb Russia’s imperialist ambition andappetite for further incursions. Risking a wider imperialist conflict.
The people of Ukraine’s willingness to fight the Russian invasion caught most military experts by surprise, not just Russia, but also the Western powers including the U.S.. Expecting a Russian walkover the Americans embarrassingly fled their embassy in Kiev.. To recover some face it was later reopened with much fanfare in a ceremony attended by Nancy Pelosi but only after the Russian advance on the capital had been decisively thrown back by Ukraine.
This resistance has come at a terrible cost to the Ukrainian people their losses have been huge, and there suffering is probably going to get even worse as Putin doubles down on the invasion. But despite this the Ukrainian people have shown no sign of surrendering or being defeated by the bigger Russian force. Having suffered appalling hardship and losses at the hand of the invader, and having sacrificed so much to resist the invasion, The Ukrainian people unlikely to back down now.
The big danger now for the people of Ukraine is a stab in the back from the Western powers who will be tempted to make a separate peace with the Russian Federation to secure Russian oil and gas.
….Some European leaders have sought to invoke a spirit of wartime sacrifice. Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas likes to say: “Gas might be expensive, but freedom is priceless.”
But many have called into question whether Europe can maintain its determination to isolate Russia as winter bites, with some in Germany urging ministers to take a second look at the mothballed Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
Janis Kluge of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs called for a communications strategy from Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government to counter the narrative that sanctions are hurting Europe more than Russia.
https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/europe/2022/08/24/winter-is-coming-ukraines-six-month-nightmare-poised-to-get-worse/
Pat, had you ever raised your voice against Ukrainians civil war against their Russian residents in the Donbass I might take you seriously. If you’d ever raised your voice against NATO provocation of Russia despite Russia’s continual objection I might take you seriously. As it is Ukrainian and Russians are dying because neither of those issues were addressed by our Western governments, media and society. Too late now.
You know who thinks you are talking bullshit?
Abby Martin.
Don’t know who Abby Martin is?
Abby Martin has a film showing in Auckland right now exposing the US and Zionist slow genocide against the Palestinians.
Abby Martin was the host and producer of ‘Breaking The Set’ and the ‘Empire Files’ where Abby Martin fearlessly exposed the crimes of US imperialism. And Russia Today RT was happy to give her a platform to do so. What RT wasn’t happy with, was Martin’s refusal to spout the same Russian pro-war lies and propaganda that you spout here.
Abby Martin quit her job at RT in protest against Russia’s invasion of the Donbas in 2014
There was no civil war in Donbas Abby Martin called it what it was an Invasion by Russia of a sovereign nation.
You ask me Nick if I have ever raised my voice against Ukrainians civil war against their Russian residents in the Donbass. Just like Martin I refuse to raise my voice to spread a myth and a lie.
https://anticapitalistresistance.org/on-the-fantastic-tale-that-the-ukrainian-army-killed-14000-ethnic-russians-in-donbas-between-2014-and-2022/
Nick J you are just parroting a string of meaningless slogans. You really must read more.
Look in the mirror Cantab, follow your own advice.
Nick J, would you like to see my bibliography?
If its interesting reading why not? Do you really want a pissing contest on bios? We can all inflate self worth.
The Russians and DPR and LPR have captured an area the size of England in six months. It took the USA NINE months to subdue one medium sized town in Iraq, Fallujah!! The insurgents wore pajamas and flip flops, had no air force, heavy weapons, armour or artillery and ZERO anticraft capability. Still it took the Marines nine bloody months to secure the town. The Ukrainians had thousands of tanks, hundreds of front line aircraft, lots of artillery, in fact they have the second biggest army in Europe after Turkey and it is one of the most highly skillful after 8 years of NATO training. It has largely been wiped out and they are relying almost exclusively on reservists now. 80,000 killed so far and approx another 120,000 wounded (missing arms, lets, eyes ) etc. The Russian advance from Moscow to Berlin from 1942 – 1945 averaged about 1.5 kilometers a day.. the Russians are advancing at the same pace today. Donetsk has been 100% liberated and Lugansk is 95% liberated… once Kramatorsk falls there is not much between the allied forces and the Dnipro river… and then not much preventing them moving on to Odessa. The war is over buddy.. Ukraine lost. If anyone on the Ukrainian side had any brains they would call a halt to proceedings tomorrow.
Time for a peace settlement. End Ukraine’s suffering.
Comments are closed.