The Horizon Poll is interesting in that it only asks people who intending to vote.
It’s a measurement of the decided and as TDB has been pointing out for some time, the economic stresses of post Covid is splintering the political spectrum and causing intense polarisation.
The latest Horizon Poll is putting evidence to this argument.
Labour – 34%
National – 31%
ACT – 11%
Greens – 10%
NZF – 4%
Conservative party – 3%
MP – 2.2%
Other – 3.4%
Labour and National are in the mid 30s while ACT, Greens, Māori Party and NZFirst are all swelling in Party vote.
TDB has argued the possibility of a ‘full Parliament’ where NZFirst and a feral fringe Qanon party both make it over 5% because of the polarisation.
If the polarisation is that intense, ACT will cannibalise the National vote and the Māori Party vote share will increase.
2023 will be a fought by who NZers fear most, a National/ACT Government or a Labour/Green/Māori Party Government.
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What you gonna do if the TPM vote does not increase? Cause it looks pretty static atm.
Open up a cafe and mentor illiterates in the art of making loads of money
We are simply falling in line with many other western countries divided by who has a lot and who has not much or nothing.
The poll numbers a year+ out from an election mean little….in this poll, along with all other polls, is only for talking points on political blogs and fish n chips wrappers the next day in print.
Irrespective of National/ACT have numbers to govern or Lab/Greens it just titillates the political few (like all of us that read political blogs) and the voting majority pay no heed this far out.
I expect Labour to continue to slide into the high 20’s due to the abysmal stats under their watch, but watch them surge at next year’s budget lolly scramble, to beat all lolly scrambles, when it will be ‘free’ money for all! (Only available in 2024 In a ‘if you vote for us’ deal)
Your comments make a lot of sense .I am sure Labour drip feed the poor just enough to keep them hooked in and plant the fear of a change in government would deprive them of the next hand out . Now the middle level need a government feed out to get by so more are in hock to this regime.
I would agree with you that the over all national income should fall if the government budget was cut. But infrastructure requires massive investment, water infrastructure alone is about $100 billion pushing rates up at a time when the economically magnificent right want to reduce wages.
Labour/Green/Māori is not my choice simply because I don’t think they possess the economic skills to run the country.
You’re amazing BT1st 🙂
” who NZers fear most, a National/ACT Government or a Labour/Green/Māori Party Government ”
I fear the power of the neo liberal establishment which includes the 1% and their enablers in the public service , the corporates like the banks and others who put pressure where it is needed to uphold the evils of this economic system that none of the current parties in parliament have any intention of standing against.
” 2023 will be a fought by who NZers fear most, a National/ACT Government or a Labour/Green/Māori Party Government.”
All Festor has to do to win is be nice and not alarm anyone.
All Ardern/Labour has to do is prove – against past history – that she will bring decisive and positive changes in her third term, while being in coalition with the Greens and TMP.
Who is the feral fringe party? Can’t be New Conservative, we are a good centre right party. No conspiracy theory, no bigotry, no racism. Read our policies sometime. We are the new ‘New Conservative’ The best new party to work to help all seek a good life, and we will grow to be the third big party in NZ. Do you also boot people (as I would expect) from anti-religious bigoted statements about other religions aside from Islam? Like Christianity?
My 5 cents worth should a Nact government get in we will go backwards like all National governments have done before. Wages won’t match inflation, people will be put back out on the streets and in cars and infrastructure will not be built and existing infrastructure will crumble.
National haven’t got the cattle nor skills to run a creche let alone an economy.
Bert..Bert..Bert…3 points to your post: ‘Wages won’t match inflation, people will be put back out on the streets and in cars’
1: Wages are NOT matching inflation now nor will they be next year!
2: There are MORE homeless now than in 2017!
3: What infrastructure has Labour built or saved from crumbling? And please don’t mention 3 waters as that will not be implemented, and if it is, will be reversed within first 100 days of National/ACT govt.
Nice try at ‘whatifs’ and ‘whataboutisms’ though, an ‘F’ I’m afraid. But I will give you 1/10 for using so many words and not mentioning Sir John Key once lol