And another Poll is out, this time the internal Talbot and it is showing the intense polarisation the Horizon Poll highlights, but this time shows a hung Parliament!
National and Labour ‘deadlock’- new poll
A new poll has Labour and National almost deadlocked, with just one point between them, but for the first time in five years, Labour’s pollsters have found Labour and the Greens could not form a Government, even they were helped by NZ First or Te Pāti Māori.
For the first time in 14 years, more people feel negatively about the direction of the country than think it is heading on the right track.
The latest commercial poll from Talbot Mills, who also poll for the Labour Party, has National on 37 per cent with Labour on 36 per cent. The poll was obtained by Newstalk ZB.
Act is on 10 per cent and the Greens on 9 per cent.
What does it all mean?
The Bank of England expects the UK economy to tank after inflation peaks at 13% in the fourth quarter this year and remain elevated throughout 2023 despite the economy already entering a recession in the fourth quarter this year as well.
This is before the impact of Russia cutting gas and the impacts that will cause Europe and Italian Banks spreads as inflation ruptures throughout the Eurozone.
Bank of America is predicting a deep American recession this year and the mega droughts caused by catastrophic climate change are impacting food growing nations.
China is facing economic carnage from their zero covid plan while a looming property market collapse could cause untold damage inside the Chinese economy.
The fact we are neck and neck with a hung Parliament shows how divided and polarised we have become with the worst yet to hit.
If we are this extreme now, how much further will the political spectrum have fractured by the time of the election next year?
We have lived through a political period of time since MMP that has managed to dilute and temper the idealogical extremes of Left/Right politics in NZ.
The need to compromise and pull punches is fundamental to the MMP dynamic HOWEVER that completely gets thrown out the window if there is no political centre left.
The political centre has been hollowed out so much under MMP that Labour and National are almost indistinguishable in their acquiescence to neoliberal mantra.
The far left and far right have enormous pent up political tension that will rupture once Labour or National are dependent on their numbers for a majority.
These highly polarised times have the potential to create an outcome that is hated regardless of which side wins.
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Great quote. WB Yeats was Irish wasn’t he. I’ve yet to read. Heard he ihas written in the everday language and takes concentration to pick up meaning. Often my brain is tired after reading the news and here, much concentration used up alrea
Note to myself – keep trying.to find the instructions on how to tame the rough beast. I heard a great interview by RadioNZ’s Jesse Mulligan on using (I think I heard) dry ice for rats. NZ in Auckland had, a decade or so ago, the biggest colony ever seen in the world. Woo hoo we are tops again. But um… https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/afternoons/audio/2018853098/central-auckland-rat-infestation-out-of-control
This is definitely connected with politics. When National got in after neo lib started Jenny Shipley wanted to make dealing with wasps an individual’s problem, you were to be left to cope on your own or pay for an exterminator. It probably applied to rats also. Schools couldn’t cope with wasps disturbing outdoor activities. National would show the same desire for personal responsibility in any problem area, made worse by climate and political change; brought to you by Labour serving themselves since 1984. Yes but- National was happy to jump into the spa pool, the water was warm and cosy, and they carried on.
National will always divide up the country till the poor and not-blue rural areas are left to suck on the stone that the punters have been hit with, fight yheir own fires, rebuild their own housing etc. Those citizens with a brain left, not soaked in advantage and hubris, should vote for Labour again. That is showing intelligence and pragmatism, not making futile gestures, not sticking out for pie-in-the-sky, but choosing the bitter medicine that is the least poisonous.
Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe! Hehehe!
And here comes Winston!
It’s comment like this that make a good case for having to pass an IQ/psychological test before being trusted to vote… If things go the usual way for kiwis, then next year will go down in history as the year NZ began the process of ceasing to exist as a sovereign state. But hey, you guys just keep on making a joke of yourselves, and your country… /Me, and many thousands like me will be watching the slow motion train crash from our secure homes/lifestyles overseas…
Yes here he comes given a clear run by the Labour Government!!
IQ in NZ in the last 5 years has cascaded. Downwards.
Read comments on the TDB for confirmation.
indeed some of the rightards here have trouble walking and chewing gum at the same time.
It plummeted when people fell for John
Key.
Bob speaks from experience.
No Stefan. A high IQ affords no protection against human folly.
true enough pope true enough
Er…stefan…why are you even commenting? You shouldn’t be allowed to vote. Come home, live here and take part, or shut the fuck up from your flash villa in Mallorca.
Stefan, you’re canceled!
Stefan. You never really got over returning to God’s Own Country and not being seen as some sort of deity yourself. It happens. But trying to elevate yourself by shading others isn’t really the best way to go. Ride easy.
Yes, yes — and NZ First will not be forming a Government with Labour …why? Jacinda from announcements never spoke out over the Speaker trespassing NZ First (Winston) from Parliament Grounds
Plus she kept secret a number of issues that I would say were part of a no surprises agreement in the memorandum signed with Peter’s.
So she is not trustworthy.
And there is the proof IQs have dropped in the last 5 years.
More importantly, LINO kept He Puapua hidden from Winston when he was a partner in government.
Pope Punctilious 11. I think that Peters was actually Deputy PM when the Ardern team secretly developed their massive He Puapua scenario which was kept hidden from him, and importantly, unlike anybody else involved in the project, Mr Peters is a lawyer, and able ergo to be aware of the major constitutional ramifications.
I wouldn’t mind knowing the real reasons that they’re determined to jettison the Commissioner for Children either. I do know that top OT staff are unhappy about it.
“I wouldn’t mind knowing the real reasons that they’re determined to jettison the Commissioner for Children either. I do know that top OT staff are unhappy about it.”
Me too!
OT is a real mixture of people – a few genuinely concerned amidst a cesspit of mediocrity, complacency, burnout and fucked ‘process’.
Unfortunately they’re not the only agency like that
I blame the radicalization of State Media. State Media cronyism is a huge problem in NZ.
State Media are failing and they know it. They are manipulative, polarizing and damaging to the fabric of NZ society. However, Kiwi’s are building a new and better Main Stream Media, that is fast being recognized as such.
If the Ardernists are thrown out of office next year, it is likely that State Media is rightly removed from the gravy train. This would be undeniably positive for NZ society.
Coming into next year’s general election; the new, upcoming Main Stream Media will have to work extra hard, with limited resources to counter Ardernist, State Media narratives which are backed by a flood of taxpayer’s money.
” it is likely that State Media is rightly removed from the gravy train.”
Luxon wouldn’t have the guts to do that.
But trashing state media isn’t the ideal solution – then you’ll just have a bunch of private channels spouting various shades of propaganda for different political factions. Better would be to have a properly funded state media with a code of conduct that includes STRICT political neutrality, and does NOT mention the Treaty of Waitangi (at least not the revisionist version now in force).
i don’t agree with you often PP2, but in this, i agree.
the right prefer private media the resulting info bubble doesn’t challenge their world view…for a glimpse of that road check out sky australia….anyone seriously think that’s an improvement on our deeply flawed media?
yes our media is rubbish but changing to crap isn’t an improvement
The UK and the USA ought to rally together in all of this, as the collaboration in trade, foreign policy, etc, between two nations such as these, developed countries entering a looming deep recession amidst a global pandemic, ought to strengthen both their economies.
in a race to the bottom huh daniel
I have to assume, judging by the comments I’m hearing around me during the day, is that there is very little, or no support for the tories, and even while people aren’t particularly impressed with the current watered down Labour party, they still feel like the they are amenable to public pressure.. Tho tories have proved conclusively that people immolating themselves on the streets wouldn’t make a skerrick of difference to a national party government, and will be taken as proof that a militarised police force is a necessity to “keep law abiding citizens” safe… We still have a year before the polls, so there is more than enough time to make a decisive change that will leave the tories exactly where they should be. An embarrassing historical throwback to the days of brutality, and genocidal warfare upon established societies that didn’t possess the engineering skills to manufacture their murder weapons… But, we must always remember that NZ ids just three little islands out in the middle of nowhere, and don’t we behave like it…!!
How long does it take you to make up such nonsense?
ok, i’m gunna do it. why is it nonsense bob?
Bob. Steph’s an expert at these word salads. He/she/they/them/… has a very high IQ. When he left NZ the tide rose a few metres.
It’s a great loss to our country. The brain drain is reels!
However, out in the real world, its another story.
Bahahahahaha poor wee silly Bob can’t handle the truth.
I can see NZ First going with National as Winston would enjoy Luxon as his new political play thing… however I can’t see ACT wanting get into bed with NZ First
great another hung/minority parliament so nowt gets done for yet another term and yes the LINO has done nothing but that doesn’t make future stasis in any way appealing
Think about all the good that this government could have done with its full majority and then ask yourself why they did not.
I don’t think it will be a hung parliament in the future, it will be a N/A government of sorts as by the time we get to cast a vote there are even more Ardernistas that have thrown the towel in the corner and given up expecting that Person to rule for all and not just a select few which is what they do today.
That N/A government will hurt some, as L currently hurts some, but in general people will get on with life, poorer – as we are all going a bit poorer – but at least that person is gone and they are gone hopefully like their predecessor far far away to never ever be seen again.
And when Ardern becomes a footnote in history it will be one of failed opportunities, complete lack of balls/ovaries covered head to toe in arrogance and hubris.
Next summer/ winter is going to be a hard one, and a very expensive one for many as the energy crisis, the fertilizer crisis, the food production/delivery crisis all will hit here too and generally this government will not be prepared. They’ll throw another dollar at min wage, another 5 NZD on the main benefit and recoup 7 NZD via cutting the fringe benefits, but hey – its important to be seen doing something, optics and public perceptions is king!!!! Maybe that is the issue in NZ, no one looks further then the next feed and if that feed comes its a good life.
Get ready for a bumpy ride, buckle in if you have a seatbelt provided, keep yer head down, and don’t expect anything more from N/A than you would expect from L as they are Parties filled with people who are cut from the same cloth, educated in the same establishments and in the end have only one person in mind whom they would like to do right by, themselves. You and all of us are just the persons who will pay their excesses in dollar and sweat.
It would be the death of Winstons’ cred if he did.
It is the right of the old to simply do as they think it is best and fuck those that may want to take offense.
My heart skipped a beat there for a moment. I thought you meant a literal hung parliament. About time, is what I first thought.
1/
Kick out the four foreign owned and manipulated banksters. Why that hasn’t been done yet is understandable. It’s because we’re fucking stupid. With a population of a scant few 5.2 million who’s only exports are agrarian, and there’s only about 50,000 in total doing the agrarian thing, then having billions of dollars sequestered off-shore in net profits is a brilliant swindle spanning generations of morons like you and me and yet by now, we should know better than to still be falling for that shit.
Re nationalise everything that roge the stunted hog torturer dougie-boy swindled out from under our noses but here’s the kicker. We freeze all stocks, bonds, shares and material assets of those who most benefited which would then be returned to us. Think bob jones and scum like him suddenly having $56.67 in cash in the bank until pension day and he drives a 30 year old Toyota Starlet automatic that he only uses during the day and only travels through the back streets to avoid the cops because he can’t afford a WOF.
2/
Unleash a team of forensic accountants onto AO/NZ’s inner workings spanning the last 140 years.
3/
A house and a living wage for everyone currently without both or either.
4/
Decriminalise all drugs, because once 1,2 and 3 kick in it’s fucking party time baby!
Here’s a bloody interesting article I found in The Guardian.
The big idea: should we have a ‘truth law’?
Today’s politicians mislead with impunity – could we legislate to stop them lying?
“As a barrister I am subject to “truth telling” rules which, if breached, could end my career (and potentially lead to a prosecution for contempt of court). Politicians’ words have more influence than barristers’, so it’s fair to subject them to more exacting standards.”
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2022/jul/18/the-big-idea-should-we-have-a-truth-law
ooh, i like this…
I love it. We’ll definitely need some sort of new Ministry to judge what is and isn’t “the truth”. A “Ministry of Truth” perhaps? Oh wait.
My latest idea is to do away with politicians altogether. This would happen when a sufficient number of people had passed special university and polytechnic exams that gave them a rounded education, including blocks of work experience in all the areas of life that ordinary working people and the masses spend time at – which cause a society to be alive and work properly. They would then be adequately informed people about what the people need, understand how to get it provided and make sensible, timely decisions. not just what the pollies need to know to set themselves up for the good life.
Laws would be passed minimally and be required to be of practical use. People would vote for the candidates for the High Council similar to how they vote for local government but must be a system that doesn’t give some undue advantage. (I’m still not sure about STV.)
The HC would give regular reports and officer who was problematic would stand down and someone from a list would replace until the matter was decided on. Let’s cut out these louche middle men and ‘ladies’.
Hung parliament ?
Probably but ego’s and Winston wanting to desperately wanting to be the bastion of responsibility ..again will break the deadlock of any tied parliament and support on confidence and supply whoever strokes his ego and gives him what he demands so that nothing moves forward without his support.
Winston might be able to make demands such as becoming NZs first ‘King’ El Presidente of the new NZ Confederate Republic if the Queen pops her clogs!!
She can’t be too far from getting the call.
A Republic – all the self-identified lords of commerce rising to the bait like Kingfish! Stick with someone and something with a fondness for some protocols relating to fairness and duty to the people. Queenie has done good, as well as she could and better than expected. Charles has survived assassination by sharp tongues and deadly innuendos and debilitating waves of disease from the yellow press.
In Memory of W.B. Yeats
…….
“ Now he is scattered among a hundred cities
And wholly given over to unfamiliar affections,
To find happiness in another kind of wood
And be punished under a foreign code of conscience.
The words of a dead man
Are modified in the guts of the living.”
W.H.Auden.
Musee des Beaux Arts
About suffering they were never wrong,
The Old Masters, how well they understood
It’s human position;
……
How, when the aged are reverently, passionately waiting
For the miraculous birth, there always must be
Children who did not want specially want it to happen
…..
W.H. Auden
Beautiful quotes Snow White. Everywhere the wizards or rather the sorcerers are holding the soul of humanity prisoner in the somber walled and withered garden.
From the logical positivists to the death of all intellectual and philosophical light because no brat anywhere as far as one can make out wants anything else to happen. The preference is for the rough beast.
I’m looking forward to hearing the tax cut policies / promises / bribes from all parties. Hopefully the tax brackets will be updated, pension will be means tested, and a brave party will bring in more capital gains tax. Democracy is dead. Take what you can get. Best policy gets my vote
Changing tax brackets makes a difference only in an inflationary situation, but in such a situation the dollars ghat the government receives are also devalued, so the bracket change becomes rather pointless.
Not to me it wouldn’t 🙂
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