As I’ve been banging on since last year, inflation will be double digits plus by December.
My argument was based on the impact China’s zero tolerance to Covid was happening on supply chains.
Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine have rocketed those inflationary prices skywards.
We don’t appreciate that Putin is in this for the long run and will take an enormous amount of economic damage to truly mutilate the global economy.
Putin’s desire to cause a war crime is to terrify NATO into submission and the impact on oil, wheat and many metals are a harbinger of the chaos Putin wants.
Expect $5 a litre petrol, $10 loafs of bread and double digit inflation.
It’s all the black swans of the economy coming home to roost all at once.
Tourism for all but the very rich will be gutted.
Watch for food riots in the Middle East, violence in Bosnia-Hercegovina and Iranian/Israel conflict.
The new normal is constant external shocks.
Fortress Aotearoa is an inevitability in such a world.
Unfortunately for the Left, woke virtue signals won’t fix this.
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All the doom mongers on TDB need to take in Dave Brown’s marxist column. A class left fightback in significant parts of the world is the only thing that could turn this shitstorm around.
The inflation is almost entirely due to printing up billions of dollars and paying people to stay at home and not work for multiple months – inflation is, and has always been mostly a monetary phenomena. Combine that Central Banks that refuse to raise interest rates (remember, interest rates should roughly match inflation, so we should be at least at 7% interest now with ~10% mortgage rate) in order to protect over-leveraged businesses and homeowners, and you have an inflationary perfect storm. And it wasn’t just here, but globally, so we can’t just off-shore it either with cheap labour. Inflation was already a looming problem well before we heard anything about Russia and Ukraine and our leadership is being incredibly disingenuous (I’d go as far as outright lying) to say otherwise.
Putin is in it for the long haul because if he fails, the United States will walk all over him and Russia, One really has to understand the bigger geo-political-economic picture to under the conflict in Ukraine. Putin invaded Ukraine because he was left with no choice by the United States. This is a United States initiated war.
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