I predicted Putin would invade the Ukraine.
I argued that after the attempted coup in Kazakhstan earlier this year, Putin would decide the West would never end in its attempts to destabilise Russia and with an eye to history and his own personal legacy at 70, would wage a war with the Ukraine to gain further ground for Mother Russia.
I thought he would attempt to gain a land bridge to the South and annex Eastern Ukraine.
That made geopolitical sense.
What has actually eventuated is far, far, far worse and far, far, far more dangerous.
This is the grim chess master at work, a lunatic who is attempting to provoke a nuclear exchange.
Putin’s mentor Alexander Dugin has argued for the invasion of Ukraine…
Russian intellectual Alexander Dugin is the main architect of the neo-Russian imperialism called Eurasianism. In a series of lectures, articles, and books, Dugin has sought to “rehabilitate fascism in Russia.” He has borrowed from obscure 19th and 20th century political theories, adopted a sympathetic interpretation of Nazism that attempts to separate it from the Holocaust, and sought to thwart what he and many Russians believe is a conspiracy led by the United States to contain Russia. Dugin has called for a “Russian spring” and the domination of Europe through Ukraine.
…those who surround Putin all believe this grand destiny narrative…
Emboldened by perceptions of the West’s terminal decline, no one in this group loses much sleep about the prospect of an open-ended confrontation with America and Europe. In fact, the core members of this group would all be among the main beneficiaries of a deeper schism.
Consider Putin’s war cabinet, which is the locus of most decision-making. It consists of Nikolai Patrushev, the head of the Security Council; Alexander Bortnikov, the head of the FSB (the main successor agency of the KGB intelligence service); Sergei Naryshkin, the head of Russian Foreign Intelligence Service; and Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu.
Their average age is 68 years old and they have a lot in common. The collapse of the Soviet Union, which Putin famously described as the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century, was the defining episode of their adult lives. Four out of five have a KGB background, with three, including the president himself, coming from the ranks of counterintelligence. It is these hardened men, not polished diplomats like Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who run the country’s foreign policy.
In recent years, members of this group have become very vocal. Patrushev and Naryshkin frequently give lengthy interviews articulating their views on global developments and Russia’s international role. According to them, the American-led order is in deep crisis thanks to the failure of Western democracy and internal conflicts spurred by the promotion of tolerance, multiculturalism and respect for the rights of minorities.
…I think the cabal see themselves as part off 1000 year Christian tradition and that this war is for the soul of Russia.
We don’t appreciate the power and importance and motivator Russian Orthodox Christianity plays out in all of this.
In 988AD, Vladimir the Great, whom Putin takes his name from, mass baptised 1000 Russians at the River Nee-Proh in what has become the founding spiritual moment in Orthodox Russian Christianity as the moment Russia became Christian and led to a cultural narrative structure that Moscow is the third Rome and was a homeland for Christianity.
What isn’t widely known is that Putin himself is a very staunch Russian Orthodox Christianand that he has used the Russian Orthodox Church as an enormous control mechanism over the Russian people.
Putin has spent billions rebuilding the Churches smashed down by Communism and uses his relationship with the Church for political advantage. It was the Orthodox Church who first praised Putin for annexing Crimea, a region with much religious importance for the Church.
Recently the Ukrainian branch of the Orthodox Church severed ties with the Russian branchbecause they felt Putin was having too much influence over it.
If Moscow is the third Rome, Kyiv is the second Jerusalem.
Putin sees himself as part of a long line of Christian Defenders of the true faith.
A new angry white Christianity is erupting here with intense violence, and misreading the drivers of Putin means we will fail at stopping him.
If Putin is doing this for God and the soul of Mother Russia, the dead are evidence of faith, not failure!
Next stop will be Bosnia/Herzegovina…
As The World Watches Ukraine, Possibility Of Disintegration Looms In Bosnia
…in 2016 Putin started building a Doomsday bunker.
In 2017 he saw Dr Strangelove for the first time ever with Director Oliver Stone.
Last year he completed his Doomsday Bunker and this week he was apparently there.
It seems odd that he is threatening nuclear strikes and using his Doomsday Bunker the moment it became available.
The West needs to tread very carefully here.
Our interpretation of the slowness of the response and the heavy losses Russia has sustained militarily and economically is that Putin has miscalculated.
Maybe.
But he has had all the other moving parts of this plan worked out years ago.
Why isn’t airforce joining in on this attack?
Why weren’t the troops actually told where they were going or fighting.
Many of the army are just kids with not a hell of a lot of experience.
Russia’s main army is still not engaged.
They haven’t used anywhere near what we expected cyber war wise or space war wise.
What if this entire horror is just the background noise? The excuse to massively escalate to use a nuclear weapon on the battlefield?
What if this is just the beginning and he’s not engaging everything else because he’s waiting for the real conflict after he uses a nuke?
Putin isn’t a petty tyrant, he is an angry God with the power to obliterate the planet and he is exhibiting a lot of end day paranoia in his very secluded social existence and ever diminishing group of people he’s talking to.
What happens if Putin gives an order to the Russian military to use a battlefield nuke? What if that is Putin’s real aim here? To show the West that he won’t abide by any deterrence and sow a new chaos throughout the entire world order?
The scenes out of the Ukraine of innocent people frightened by the trauma of war hurts.
Their resilience, their courage in the face of the Russian army and their refusal to surrender have reset what tenacity looks like.
Their leader, his wit and his remarkable bravery have won hearts and minds globally.
Fighting for them against someone who wants to escalate extreme violence must be tempered by the reality that would be playing into Putin’s hands.
Meanwhile Joe Biden gave a mediocre speech.
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Battle-field Nukes are part of usa/Nato war doctrine and battle plans ,,,, so yes, be afraid if they ride in to save the day.
People are terribly misinformed about the dirty road leading to this escalation in the war — https://www.newsweek.com/evidence-war-crimes-committed-ukrainian-nationalist-volunteers-grows-269604
from 2015 “There are over 30 pro-nationalist, volunteer battalions similar to Aidar, such as Ukraina, DND Metinvest and Kiev 1, all funded by private investors.
The Aidar battalion is publicly backed by Ukrainian oligarch Ihor Kolomoyskyi, who also allegedly funds the Azov, Donbas, Dnepr 1, Dnepr 2 volunteer battalions, operating under orders from Kiev.”
“War Crimes of Nationalist Volunteer Battalions Exposed, Not Prosecuted
“Apart from deploying regular troops to shell the cities of the DPR and LPR, the new Kiev leadership attracted several so-called “volunteer battalions” – ragtag groups of people, often nationalists and ex-convicts, funded and equipped by Ukrainian oligarchs and businessmen with connections to the new government. Their members were often involved in various war crimes – ranging from looting to killing civilians and rape. One such battalion, dubbed “Tornado”, was disbanded in December 2014 by Kiev following numerous reports of its crimes, but its members were never prosecuted, with many of them moving to other battalions.”
********************************************
“what happened in the 1990s was that the Soviet middle class— which was one of the most professional and educated, and had some savings and which therefore should have been the building block of a Russian free market sector— that middle class was wiped out, and it’s never been recreated. Instead, you got a country of impoverished people and of very, very rich people—with a small middle class serving the rich. That changed under Putin; Putin has rebuilt the middle class, gradually.
“What does Putin want? He’s said the same thing and he’s never varied: He wants a stable, territorial Ukraine—Crimea excepted—and he knows that’s possible only if Ukraine is free to trade with the West and with Russia but is never a member of NATO. However, somebody’s got to rebuild Ukraine, and he’s not going to take that burden on himself, but he will help finance it through discounted energy prices. It could all be done tomorrow if we had a statesman in the White House. Tomorrow! Nobody else has to die.” https://www.salon.com/2015/04/23/architects_of_american_policy_towards_russia_and_ukraine_are_destroying_american_national_security_stephen_f_cohen_on_the_truths_u_s_media_and_politicians_hide/
Putin .. “he who does not regret the destruction of the Soviet Union has no heart, and he who wants to see it recreated in its former shape has no brain”
Have you read Putin’s pre-invasion speech? He is quite clear that what he wants is the pre 1989 geopolitical situation, he wants the Postupim and Jalta agreements signed by Stalin to be applied forever. He has no respect whatsoever for the free will of people and nations, democracy means nothing for him. He mentioned Ribbentrop-Molotov pact but not one word that thanks to that the USSR annected half of Poland, Baltic states, Moldava, started the war with Finland and of course not a word about Katyn. As for denazification there are many neo-nazi groups in Russia, some of them were fighting in Donbas. But most of all, look at Putin, his policies are built on extreme nationalism (like that of Alexander Dugin), which is de facto nacism. And as for Putin’s alleged Christianity, he uses the Orthodox church to bind and unite Russians not unlike Constantine the Great.
Have a look at The Soviet Story in youtube, that is what he represents. I am sorry but he seems to confirm the saying that once KGB, forever KGB.
This has nothing to do with the USSR, communism, or 1989. This is about restoring Holy Tsarist Russia, as per before 1917. No one on any news network or web site seems to ‘get’ this. Dugin and Putin aren’t exactly dyed in the wool Marxist/Leninist communists
Not so much with Marxist communism but with its totalitarian reality in the USSR.
Bit rich, coming from someone who confesses to wanting a theocracy imposed at gunpoint. As per your previous posts.
And also someone who wants teachers arrested for teaching evolution in schools. Once again, as per your previous posts.
A bible basher like you would love Putin imposing Christian Sharia law in Russia and its controlled territories.
Hi, millsy, yes I am a Christian and as such I try my best to honour and respect the free will of everyone, because it is the greatest gift of God. So I surely do not want to impose anything on anyone at gunpoint, neither teachers to be arrested for teaching evolution theory and I am absolutely opposed to any “Christian sharia law” being imposed anywhere.
spot on millsy
actual quotes please alex regarding putins desire to return to the potsdam and yalta agreements, katyn and the holdomor are well known, the partition of poland was agreed between stalin and churchill (on the back of a dinner menu no less) so you could say churchill betrayed and sold poland in return for greece.
but yes at the end of the day putin has very unsavory friends and is keen to co-opt fascist/nationalist elements just as the republicans and boris are.
‘soviet story’ a laughable pseudo documentary and rightwing ‘go to’
You can read carefully paragraphs 5-8 of his speech. And yes, it was not only Stalin but Chrchill, Roosevelt and Truman who sold us under the soviet yoke. And by the way Chamberlain, Daladier and Mussolini did the same in Munich under Hitler’s yoke. And in 1968 we did not get any help from the West either.
Gagarin – Poland was not covered by the Yalta “Percentages Agreement”.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Percentages_agreement
I always thought it would be a looney tunes Middle East tin pot dictator that launched the first nuke. My guess is that either Putin:
a). Is stark raving mad.
b). Has a terminal illness.
He appears to want to go out with a bang and take the world with him. Ironically the only person that can stop him is Xi. Yes, that’s right folks the fate of the world resides in Xi. We have to hope that he wants to rule at least another 20 years.
The old coot’s minder are still worried about the mid terms as opposed to world peace; Macron is huffing a puffing; Bojo stumbling and bumbling along and everyone East of the Rhine in a state of anxiety that the iron curtain is about to recommence.
Puts omnishambles into perspective.
Yeah I had also been wondering over the weekend if Putin has a terminal illness and consequently feels (as far as he is concerned anyway) that he really has nothing to lose.
jeezuzzz, armature hour psychology and digital diagnosis…surely we can manage better than that chaps.
‘gararin’ as in Yuri Gargarin? You are Russian?
In the USA Trump has said at a Republican Meeting that the “US should attack the Russian Army with F22 Fighter Jets camoflaged with Chinese Markings and then sit back and watch a shit fight start between China and Russia”, USA’s two main adverseries.
Evidently he got a lot of laughs and a rousing reception.
The Urkraine Situation has taken some heat off the Covid News and the Mandate Protests.
“What does Putin want? He’s said the same thing and he’s never varied: He wants a stable, territorial Ukraine—Crimea excepted—and he knows that’s possible only if Ukraine is free to trade with the West and with Russia but is never a member of NATO.”
Somehow there is a disconnect in that statement in regards the Russian invasion. He wants a stable Russian controlled Ukraine. Not a democratic Ukraine where the Ukrainian people decide to belong to NATO or not.
And that the core logic somehow that bombing Ukraine back to the stone age will engender the 38 million remaining Ukrainians to Putin’s wish for a homogeneous but suppliant Ukraine republic. Weird sense of “how the win friends and influence people”.
Bit of tough love? More akin to child abuse.
Those Ukrainian battalions so disparaged, were in answer to the Russian backed separatist battalions in the south east of the Ukraine.
Worth a read;
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/22/what-are-donetsk-and-luhansk-ukraines-separatist-statelets
“And the constitution adopted by Lenin’s successor, Josef Stalin, has been restored by the Moscow-backed separatist leaders of Donetsk and neighbouring Luhansk after they broke away from the central government in 2014.
After almost eight years of existence, the “republics” are understood to have evolved into totalitarian, North Korea-like statelets.”
So whilst “look at the these fascist battalions”, how about some balance in regards the communist battalions. Clean as the driven snow? Think not.
Yup – Like the fascist Sparta Battalion in Donetsk . .
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sparta_Battalion
You would have to be brain damaged to ignore NATOs role in bringing about the fighting. ,,,,,
,,,, and the Russians have not waged a shock and awe war of annihilation, bombing cities back to the stone age, that the usa/Nato employs ,,, have you ever heard of humanitarian corridors getting civilians out of harms way used by the usa?.
NZ joined in the far far worse war crimes of starving a civilian population to death in the 300,000+ murdered Yemen people.
Our Govt has us as Blair faced hypocrites ,,,,
Quote Putin “Consequences like we have never seen before?”, is going to make Hiroshima and Nagasaki look like a Kids Tea Party, the guy is severely unhinged.
Disagree entirely Martyn.
Agree that anyone who believes in an invisible guy who runs the universe is self deluded I but also believe that we in the west are the most effectively propagandized populace in the world thus making us the most self deluded populace in the world. This for so many reasons I’m too busy to recount at the moment and I hate typing.
Anyway on ” Their leader, his wit and his remarkable bravery ” read this article from Alexander RUBINSTEIN and Max BLUMENTHAL at https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2022/03/05/how-ukraines-jewish-president-zelensky-made-peace-with-neo-nazi-paramilitaries-on-front-lines-of-war-with-russia/ and draw your own conclusions.
“Senior US officials have flown to Venezuela for rare talks with Nicolás Maduro’s government in an apparent bid to prise the South American country away from its Russian backers after Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
Whatever happened to Guaido ?.No longer the rightful head of state of Venezuela?
Does this mean the Bank of England will now release Venezuela’s gold ?
after pissing in Venezuela’s chips for years? good luck with that…
it’s gonna need a massive and I do mean massive bribe to overcome Venezuela’s entirely justified distrust of washington
About time the USA reconciled with Cuba also, the Cuban people are suffering under the current regime.
Putin is looking pretty good for a 70 year old who has been leading a huge country for the past 20 years or so. Although I do think the stress of this conflict is taking its toll a bit
You want to start dating him?
More hysterical hyperbole from the NeoCon Neoliberal Cultural Fascist Neo-Nazi Marxist Woke Brigade! What’s that as an acronym?
NCNCFNNMWB for short!
Well, I did say he wasn’t going to invade, and I was right! The two newly formed States of the Donbass region made a request to Russia to assist militarily.
Look, he’s doing fine. He’s pretty much sealed off the crazy Neo Nazi’s Azov unit from the Black Sea. Secured power infrastructure or knocked it out of commission. Same too for comms. He’s nailed the weapons supply depots in the south that were housing and transporting weapons supplied by the EU, NATO and the US.
And he’s circled ‘chicken Kyiv!’
Meanwhile, Juan Guaido Zelenskyy hides himself on a sunny beach in Miami!
Putin has, like a master ‘Chess’ player positioned his pieces on the board strategically. It’s a ‘Boa-constrictor’ move.
Once all the pieces are in place. The Boa starts to squeeze his prey into submission.
Amene.
Sorry, unless it’ s irony, you are wrong. The two newly formed states made a request to Russia to assist militarily, what an excuse!!! Aa a letter calling for military help allegedly written by pro-soviet communists in Czachoslovakia in 1968 (never found). You have no idea about the life under soviets, no idea about life in post-communist countries.
Yup if Denny had some first-hand experience living under the Soviets / Russians then I am sure that his comments would show a little (a lot) more maturity.
Kosovo. Yugoslavia 1990. Hungary & Austria’s acknowledgement of Kosovo as an independent state and kicked off the Balkans War(s) for the next 6+ years, set a precedent.
Putin did the same. Recognised the DPR & LPR as independent sovereign states of the Donbass region.
Whether right or not, it happened.
The military conflict in Kosovo in 1998 -1999, the independance since 2008. The Balkan wars 1991 – 2001 were very complex, more than Kosovo – Serbia with roots deep in history, in different nationalities, religions etc.
c’mon alex you know that after 68 czechoslovakia was one of the, if not the mildest communist bloc state…not that that was a good thing far from it but it wasn’t stalins russia c.1936
example I used to swap model kits with a couple of czech guys and a pole, no doubt vetted by the party..but it was uk customs who opened my parcels from them and managed(maybe deliberately) to lose bits….and no I was an syndicalist at the time not a member of the CPGB — bunch of wankers
It was not the USSR in 1936, neither Czechoslovakia after 1948, but it was worse in a way, because in the late 60-ies we started to have hope for freedom and democracy, we were without censure, we learnt about gulags and what was happening in the 50-ies, people were released from prisons and working camps, we could travel to the West, we could read books, listen to the music, and watch films, could meet and talk openly, could demonstrate and strike, people were in euphoria of freedom for nearly one year but it all was destroyed by Soviet tanks. The following years were years of schisophrenia, lies and pretence became our daily bread which had devastating impact on personal morals. It was like walking in mud of depression without any hope.
Ukrainian peace negotiator shot dead
Anyone can unravel this nonsensical story , please advise
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10582805/Ukrainian-peace-negotiator-shot-dead-amid-claims-Russian-spy.html#reader-comments
it’s the daily hate, not worthy of further investigation…with that rag assume lies until proved otherwise.
Yeah let’s rely on the Russian media – no way they are going to lie to their own people.
Every about Putin spells Narcissistic Personally Disorder. No wonder Trump promotes him.
Spot on Bert. And just like Trump, he is a bully too.
It’s hard to see a guy using Chechen Moslems as part of the invasion of Ukraine as a Christian crusader. Let alone with a goal to impose Serbian rule over Bosnia.
Tell it to Vlad Dracula of Wallachia, or John Sobiesky.
We need Sobiesky back with his winged hussars.
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