BREAKING: First Poll since Luxon as Leader – National soar – ACT crash!

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Taxpayer’s Union Poll is out, the first since Luxon as leader and it’s seen National soar while ACT have crashed!

As a Handmaid’s Tale level anti abortionist, Luxon will have picked up the sub 5% Christian vote that usually gets wasted (see how the ‘Other’ section has plummeted?) while stealing back some of the angry urban make ACT vote!

David Seymour will need to light some bigger crosses to win back the emotional tourist National Party voters who have become bored with their protest vote wild life.

With Labour and Greens ticking up, Luxon is drawing support from the usually wasted evangelical Christian vote and angry urban ACT men.

Luxon may not want to talk about his radical faith, but those who share it are.

 

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52 COMMENTS

  1. Still net gain of voters to the right (1.1%) vs left gain (2.5%). 43% plays 50%. 3.5% swing – probably within the margin of error.

    From team left’s perspective they will be worried if far-right Christians en-masse pump for uncle Fester as that will bring 1-2% back into play WHICH might become critical as polling tightens up. Also Labour remains sub 40%. Key’s National was almost never that.

    Demographics would be interesting – I would suggest Farrar’s polling still shows under 35 females in love with the PM. This demonstrates a levelling out of polling movement in the meantime.

    How this plays out for the next 6 months will depend on the ‘son of megatron’ covid variant and how Uncle Fester can demonstrate a government-in-waiting with Seymour.

  2. Act hasn’t come out against the ‘show me your papers’ situation developing in NZ. That IMO is probably costing Act vote.. and obviously some vote is shifting to National.

  3. Did you have that written out last night Frankus? At least you got your assignment in on time. Polls are problematic at the best of times and this one is no different.

    Baldrick is an unapologetic Natzo moneybags which of course draws in the aspirational and existing petit bourgeois and SME crowd. He is the perfect representative really of the parasite class he both is a member of and represents first and foremost.

    Nice to see ACT get a symbolic kick in the nuts too.

    • Nup but polls are but a series of trends. The trends have been occurring for a good 6 months now. A good portion of the population are now actively looking for an alternative. As an entry – uncle Fester ain’t looking too bad (he ain’t my cup of tea though). His first few weeks have been aimed at National heartland and he’ll be getting coaching in a certain Parnell mansion over the summer period so he can actively target female voters under the age of 50.

      Elections aren’t usually won – they are lost. National/Act’s strategy needs to focus on being a government in waiting. Act has done their part of the job and like him or hate him Fester has had a solid start. Almost all of the criticism levelled at him is for things outside of his leadership – that in itself is an admission from the left that it is game on.

      • So based on the series of trends then Frankie, ACT will be down to just Seymour come 2023 as Luxon continues to cannibalise his vote.

        • No there is a big faction like me that are done with National. I’d argue this is a little bit of a rouge poll for Act (and the Greens) although the absolute numbers of left and right are probably accurate.

          Act will move further to the right; National to the center as we get closer to the election. The lack of factional actors being employed by the feckless means the ‘hierarchy’ have got the candidate that they want.

      • The only strategy of ACT is more air time and immediately Rimmer is fronting media on fictional future outcomes of covid. As things are already going south for Rimmer can I suggest a second round of dancing with the no stars.

      • And will the Machiavellian coaching run something like this FTK?

        Don’t touch waitresses’ hair!
        No 3-way handshakes!
        No pissing in the shower nor bragging about it!
        Do an early voting deal with ACT to keep the Parnellians sweet!

        Lie less than 435 times or you’ll beat Key’s record. https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2016/06/04/435-lies-by-john-key/

        Then you can have a vanity flag costing the taxpayer $26 million.
        Have a revote on commercialising cannabis, with shares available to ‘Mum and dad investors’, which will immediately earn Luxon a knighthood.

    • indeed any result that is smaller than or near to the margin for statistical error is pretty much useless and indicates nothing.

      why are we still so obsessed with polls. if recent events re-shillary/trump, brexit/boris, NZLabs last election majority, have shown it’s that the all polls should be hanging on a nail in the bog rather than the media-event of the day.

    • I find it interesting that the petite bourgeoise/SMEs don’t understand increasing min wage/ benefits is money that’s going to be spent within NZ possibly with their companies rather than being invested overseas, they’re just like working class tories turkeys voting for xmas…..further impoverishing the general populous is not good for small business… how the US fucked up their cities and towns is not a good business model.

      • LOL. Never owned a SME have you? Increased wages can be absorbed by a large corporate, not-so-much by a SME earning a wage for the owner. And of course all the minimum wage increases result in is price increases (where they can) so nobody wins. Who does that benefit again – certainty not small business.

        • Well who ever said small business and self employment was a good idea–let alone some sort of sure to succeed kiwi dream? Maybe the banks that small business operators are in hock to! and definitely the Torys who try and cultivate such support on the basis of aspiration. Not-everyone-can-be-a-million-fucking-aire…

          For decades according to IRD many small businesses have typically fallen over after a couple years. An unattainable capitalist dream just defers people facing the reality of running an economy for the many not the few.

        • then maybe just maybe like uneconomic freezer works under the monetarist ideology, your business isn’t viable and for the good of ‘the market’ shouldn’t exist..

          and don’t tell me about concern for your workers, a living wage is a legitimate cost of business like raw materials, it’s just wages are the easiest savings for incompetent managers to make

  4. I knew this would happen! Labour popularity was not due to the Lockdown Queen, it was due to people not wanting to vote for Judith Collins…once the Covid scare is over…what does Labour have to show for its’ time in Power?…Nothing at all!

    • I knew this would happen, as soon as the Toxic Crusher lost her job, Uncle Fester would canniblise Rimmers vote. As predicted they share the same vote whilst the left bloc is trending upward because of brilliant fiscal management, covid response, supporting teachers and nurses and reinvesting in health and welfare, all of which National destroyed and why voters finally saw the writing on the wall.

  5. Apart from the usual stating of the bleeding obvious, the commentary so far seems to be taking no account whatsoever of the :honeymoon effect” this poll reflects.. With NZ’s utter joke of a news media breathlessly talking up every bout of flatulence coming out of Luxalon as proof of greatness, we will have to wait until the obvious limitations of this drone are too obvious tp ignore any more… When all said and done, it really doesn’t matter who is NZ’s government now.. The Key government has infected the moneyed classes with a ridiculous level of expectations regarding the utter frailty of the wealth they wallow in at the expense of everybody else…. This delusional idiocy has now made it almost impossible for NZ to reclaim what they used to regard as a birthright thanks to the mindless greed, and selfishness encouraged, and enabled in large part by taking advantage of the underlying bigotry of the colonial descendants, and their fantasies about being the “superior” race to the Native population, and all immigrant nationalities from the start of the 20th century… Combine that with their hangers on in the “middle
    ‘ classes, and you have a sure fire recipe for the complete destruction of any future beyond slavery for the vast majority of the population… The only people who will benefit in the long run, are in those countries where our “best and brightest” will escape to in order to have a chance to accomplish anything useful… The craven worshipping of Luxon by the tory press is nothing but proof of how degenerate this country has become since the great traitor Douglas released the demons within the national(colonial privilege)party to take back all the gains made that saw NZ becoming a beacon around the world as a fit and proper way to make a society that tried to give everybody a chance to fulfil their potential… And make that society much stronger, and wealthier for it… We are now just a nation of slaves, and masters.. Makes one nostalgic for the days of a strong monarchy, eh what?

    • Depressingly accurate there Stefan. My family have worked both sides of the Tasman for 189 years,they have been originators and creators of wealth for this country. The present generation are very unequal in their standards of living. All down to when they where born in relation to the advent of Rogernomics and their ability to access the Australian economy. And that is the truth for hardworking kiwis if you can’t get your arse across the Tasman for employment you’re fucked!.

      • We are a relative poor country compared to Australia. People willingly believe we are not that much different but we are significantly poorer as a nation as an average

        • yup just like we have to face up to general NZ corruption, and overall 3rd world status…no we are not a developed economy we are an agricultural one, we make nowt…and just stop flattering ourselves we’re in the 1st division playing with the big boys and for gods sake can the ‘punching above our weight horseshit’ no one cares what we think….

          and after that rant my point is we need to sort our issues our way not by archaic rules in a dogeared 1990s MBA textbook

    • Read John Minto’s posts. He is entirely accurate in his description of the current government that is continuing to peddle the same policies you are decrying above just with identity politics, pandering to their special interest groups, fear porn and gender psychology added into the mix.

      Have a look at key trends in poverty, welfare dependency, housing and cost of living. No point blaming Douglas, Key and all other forms of rightwing devils if your beloved leader is waltzing down the same trodden path. 9 years of neglect has been replaced with 5 years of siting on their ass.

      • No Frank that is not what I see in the Hutt Valley region. I see hundreds of state houses and private homes going up as fast as it can and being occupied equally as fast. The private developers are buying up multiple homes some times buying almost entire blocks as they are keen to do so while they can still get top dollar for their investment.

    • Stefan. I enjoyed your comment and thought it summed the situation up quite well until the colonial deprivation theme started up. It’s not that I don’t agree that the colonisation of NZ has changed completely the way we’ve developed but more that you insinuate that those who colonise are some sort of wealthy business driven elitist scum. You also seem to tag the description more to National for some reason. NZ certainly isn’t special when it comes to colonialism, and was lucky in my opinion to have some negotiation involved in having a treaty which is being used to good effect today. If you look around and see how invaders world wide have treated their captors in the name of religion etc we’ve done ok. I agree British Colonialism was to extend Britains wealth and power but once again we were just one of many countries they abused, but if they hadn’t colonised us someone else would have. Let it go. There’s huge problems closing the gap between the have’s and have not’s in this country but it’s political. Don’t complicate the issue with colonial BS.

  6. Unrelated (completely) but I can’t stand Max Key and every time I see the smug little shit in some fawning Herald article I want to smash his face in.
    This anger lies deep within me, it courses through my veins and walks beside me on the way to the dairy.

  7. No surprises really, Luxon has awaken the archetypal capitalists, desperate to feed on what remains of the planets diminishing carcass. In their desperate fever they idealise him, they want to have him, consume him, and introject his power for themselves. Seymour can’t compete with Luxon’s status. More evidence of the ever continuing psychosis of the masses that will lead us all deeper into despair, loss and chaos.

  8. No surprises that Luxon has drawn back the disaffected from ACT.

    And also and despite the many shortcomings in Labour’s preparedness for Delta, the scrambling response to it has pretty much worked out well, so a solidifying of the vote is reflected.

    Plus home owners and the wealthy are thanking the property gods that Jacinda is the PM and Labour are in government.

  9. Luxon’s going nowhere down the track.
    He’s porkied in just about every interview to date.
    And has no depth of knowledge except on corporate buzz words and phrases.

    “Let’s touch base and take two steps back and engage in a robust conversation going forward about a wide ranging suite of measures to drive this economy forward and park them for a second on the top shelf”… etc etc
    An ex CEO of a monopoly…That’s his level.

  10. Labour could easily raise their numbers 10% by decriminalizing weed and psychedelics, picking up most fence sitting recreational drug users (and their parents who don,t want to see their kids serving time for a bag of weed or mushrooms) while being at little risk of alienating hard line prohibitionist nutters who will already be going with Luxon. It’s an absolute no brainier, I mean almost half the population just voted to fully legalize weed last year. Why not capture that vote and let the whole country de stress with a nice fat joint? We fricken need it. Even better just fully legalize it and collect the tax from it.

    • Where is this 10% going to come from? Act? National?

      Are you so sure that peoples biggest concern right now is cannabis reform? Well I’m glad that housing, Covid and inflation are all sorted, I must have missed that memo. And I say this as someone who voted yes, but I’m not going to live or die because I can’t light up.

      • The 10% is a estimate/guess, from fence-sitting voters who are also drug users.
        As for housing, COVID and inflation, prohibition is currently feeding these problems. Besides that we need to start utilizing psychedelics in the search for solutions to these problems.

  11. “Lies, damn lies and statistics”.
    But wait…? There’s more !
    Wikipedia:
    ‘New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union’
    https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/our_team
    “The New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union is a self-described taxpayer pressure group founded in 2013 to scrutinise government spending; publicise government waste and promote an efficient tax system. It claims to be politically independent and not aligned to, or intended to develop into a political party.”
    Ah..? So the poll was taken by lawyers, accountants and a windswept ex cop? How did they do that? By asking around the office?
    Do you guys really take these greedy logical fallacy spewing dip shits seriously? How are they funded? David farrar..!? I mean, really?
    “…a self-described taxpayer pressure group…”
    Ok? I’m going to describe myself too then.
    I’m Black, I’m six foot six tall and I must wheel my penis around in a shopping trolley. I have thirty nine doctorates, professorships and degrees from the most prestigious Universities in the world and I’m married to Margo Robbie AND Chris Pine. I fly fighter aircraft as a hobby and have been into space with Jeff and we’ve also been into that other space, the outer space, together many times. Jeff has relatives in a near by galaxy so…I’m a trained elephant wrangler and I keep a crocodile in the glove box of my Bentley because one never knows when one might need a glove-box crocodile. I’m a fully qualified heart, brain, ear, nose, throat and anus surgeon and Princess Diana’s daughter is our love child. Bet you didn’t know about her now did ya? I own Rakiura AKA Stewart Island and I intend building a bridge from there to Antarctica just for the skiing and the penguin tenderloins. I also have opinions about conservative politics and I think luxon is a certainty for a long run as prime mincer of the Natzo Party and did you know? I’ve had a temporary womb installed in me and I’m about to be a very happy mother to jonky’s love baby… You remember jonky? He came here recently and called us smug hermits for concerning ourselves with a deadly virus? Let me tell you? He tugs more than hair you know?
    ‘The New Zealand Tax payers Union.’
    “Brain farting stats you should never, ever, trust.”

  12. It’s actually quite predictable.
    Just after Jacinda took over Labour Party leader from Andrew Little the same happened.
    A new leader always attracts a lot of attention and there are always new hopes attached and differences patched up (at least temporarily).
    It also helps when your new leader is a whole lot more likeable than the old one.
    But as I said in the last poll, it’s really a case of the political right trading votes between each other, not gaining on the Labour government.
    The next few polls will show whether it is just a flash in the pan or a trend.

    • Correct. The real numbers that matter are 43% plays 50%. The shuffling of votes between National/Act and Labour/Greens is inconsequential

  13. No Frank that is not what I see in the Hutt Valley region. I see hundreds of state houses and private homes going up as fast as it can and being occupied equally as fast. The private developers are buying up multiple homes some times buying almost entire blocks as they are keen to do so while they can still get top dollar for their investment.

  14. No Frank that is not what I see in the Hutt Valley region. I see hundreds of state houses and private homes going up as fast as it can and being occupied equally as fast. The private developers are buying up multiple homes some times buying almost entire blocks as they are keen to do so while they can still get top dollar for their investment.

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