The mainstream media have breathlessly proclaimed Luxon as the second coming of the right wing messiah.
Sure, Luxon had a good first week, but in comparison to the implosion of Muller and Collins, all Luxon had to do to look better than them was make it to the press conference without exploding or lacerating a child!
It was a very low bar to meet, the joy that Luxon managed to tie his shoelaces without injuring anyone is testament to how bad things had gotten inside National, not how much better Luxon actually is!
Key always knew his massive wealth disgusted most Kiwis, that’s why he always dressed down to avoid triggering that negative egalitarianism, Luxon however sees his wealth as a blessing from Jesus, so he will never hide his money or the luxury he enjoys.
And that’s the ultimate problem with Luxon.
He is a slick advertising campaign for a holiday you are never able to ever afford!
Where Luxon needs to win votes is far harder than winning over the mainstream media.
The 200000 40 year old + female voters who Key seduced from Labour in 2008 but Jacinda won back in 2020 see themselves in Jacinda’s leadership. They see in her a female leader leading in an authentically female way and it empowers them. How the fuck a rich CEO with a Handmaid’s Tale level anti abortion stance is going to win those 40year old female voters back is anyones guess.
Maybe Luxon will gain back ACT vote but if you do a deep dive there you see ACT picking up enormously from the 18-49 male electorate in numbers so large it suggests a genuine philosophical break from National to ACT. I don’t think Christian Dad will tempt that vote away from the political 4chan of ACT.
Where Luxon will pick up and create an immediate polling bump is the sub 5% Christian vote that gets wasted each election because their vote goes to religious and conservative parties that don’t get over 5%.
All Luxon does is hold onto vote National already has while sucking up wasted Christian vote!
Attempting to win back Labour’s proud female vote or ACTs angry male vote will be a task beyond the Corporate Ted talks Luxon is currently getting applauded for.
To paraphrase The Life of Brian, “He’s not the messiah, he’s just a very boring boy”!
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Spot on analysis outside is a vast chunk of >50% females have already gone back to a combination of Act/National (Roy Morgan last poll had a 50/50 right/left demographic split).
Uncle Fester has quite a lot of barbecues in Parnell over the Christmas break to get through. He also needs to ditch his media advisors/strategists as there were a number of banana peel slips in the first week – question time, Jenna Lynch/RNZ interviews.
The point is its not +40 females he needs to win over. It’s under 35 white collar females – the like that hang out in marketing and HR departments. They presently worship his ilk already as part of their job – he and his team (read Standford/Willis) need to convince them to do the same on their political vote.
This is not unachievable and leave the mad rump (such as me) to ACT. Leave politics like border checkpoints to Seymour – he is better at sound bites and to date much better on his feet in the house. MMP is a numbers game – you bring as many over to your ‘side’ as you can and worry about semantics after the fact.
As a right voter I’m as positive as I’ve been since the onset of the pandemic about a change of government. HOWEVER this requires a team effort on the right and an ego check from Luxon AND Bridges. The male vote has gone Simon accept it and move on. They also need to acknowledge that any center right coalition might have Seymour as PM or at least as co-PM. This will be the challenge for National and they might very well find themselves the junior partner like their namesakes in Australia.
and that is a danger for labour the less often mentioned amongst trumps ‘deplorables’ was college educated females, african americans and hispanics….and yes the majority were disgruntled rights over all but these subgroups can make a difference.
Interesting analysis, I think you might be wrong about convincing under 35 Females, this is the generation of Women who grew up listening to the Spice Girls and use the term “Girl Power” unironically. But still, the election is a fairway off, anything could happen.
Someone said all Mr Luxon just needs is a bit of polishing……he may draw some hope from this perhaps: https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x2lrkhj
By some supreme twist of irony, one of the most direct ways to make inroads into the hearts and minds of many ordinary Kiwi voters would be if an opposition party could show how they would significantly reduce inequality, and the numbers of children in real, day to day poverty. …How they would end the need for food banks. …How they would make housing affordable again, both for those renting or hoping to buy. And how they could do it rapidly, not in XX years time.
As I wrote elsewhere, How ironic that it’s now down to National and Act to call out inequality, poverty, house prices etc.
It was a former Nat PM who called it, here: Former PM says National’s disappointing
Yes Kheala, but obviously none of tose things are of any interest to the current National or Act line ups.
I am reserving my opinion of Luxon until he has been in charge for awhile but it is good that at least it looks as if National will be there to pick up the votes that go begging if Labours covid moves fail. I am not hoping this happens but to date they have few points on the board from any other policy .
Love the photo at the top. Perhaps he will indeed just be a dickhead. Well done to whoever got thst shot.
Labour, National, NZF and the Maori party have all been in Court for Fraud during the 2017, 2020 elections. But instead of doing the right thing and declaring those elections invalid, they’re going to change to law!
Can someone give an example of what corruption is?
whoever does his speeches seems trapped in the 80’s – Thin blue line, Rising tides lift all boats, etc. Talk about yesterdays man!
I think The Luxon Bot is preforming well, I’d consider voting for National if they can right-the-ship and chart-a-course. I’m being turned off by Act and TOP at an alarming rate.
WTF, just another cardboard cut out National bloke. Seven houses, what fucking housing crisis. Open Auckland borders now, Yeah Right ! mate. Sucks up Simon whats his name, the most hated opposition leader, ever. Sucks up Muller, the weenie for another weenie session. Commanding little shit school boy performance in Parliament. The really scary thing is what would have transpired if National had run the pandemic response.
The PM now has an extra duty, that of Luxon’s fact-checker.
tee hee
Luxon. Rob,junior.
He’s no John Key, that’s for sure!
“Key always knew his massive wealth disgusted most Kiwis”.
Strange how it never showed up in the polls…
Thank God Judith Collins is not the leader of National…the election will be more interesting in 2023, than 2020
“”There is no ”t” in my name” – does this refer to “Luxon”or “Chris”?
Another blue pin striped suited conservative with the same old trickle down theory, I’m pretty disappointed with the National party and it’s behaviors over the last 20 years, corruption, sex scandals, internal bickering, black ops and disinformation. I can’t see how anyone would have any confidence in their ability to be an effective government , they certainly are not Government material in my eyes. It is interesting that some folk I interact with, state they will vote for National because Labour appears to be panderig to the minorities, in particular the Maori minority. They believe National will reverse this perception , so I would have to conclude, their support for National is based on National’s historical minority race policies. There seems to be alot of voters out there that are just sick of hearing moaning Maori and will vote for a political party that will rebalance the so called relationship. The sad thing is that National will probably need the Maori seats and I doubt that any Maori MPs would join National after their party was thrown out of Parliament after their last coalition with National. It would seem National may struggle to get any real traction .
He reminds me of the soft, pale boy in school that was always running to the teacher to tell tales.
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