Taxpayers Union Poll – What if pundits are wrong & this is National’s death spiral?

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Taxpayers Astro Turf is out and even their polling has Labour stratospheric at 44.8% but the real trend is once again ACT canabalizing National vote.

Now TDB were the first to point out that what happened at the election with ACT scoring such a leap in the polls wasn’t a one off protest vote from disappointed National voters angry at an ugly campaign, we had been pointing out that ever since the woke handed free speech ammunition to ACT, David Seymour had become a lightening rod for right wing values in a social media world more focused on cancelling people or giving platform for White supremacist Qanon lunatics.

The insanity of the social media extremes made ACT look moderate which is terrifying because ACT policy is hard right…

  • Cut and freeze the Minimum wage
  • Interest back on all student loans
  • No Kiwsaver subsidy
  • Cancel winter energy payment
  • Dump all climate crisis legislation
  • no more best start payments for families with new borns
  • cut welfare payments
  • no tax credits for research and development
  • cuts to working for families
  • $7b a year cut in public services
  • Abolish Maori seats

…the middle electorate will look at a hard right ACT and a socially conservative National and run fur the hills in 2023.

ACT will eclipse National next year during the woke Hate Speech legislation and the remaining National vote will prop up NZ First as a hand break to the Greens.

What if the pundits are wrong again and there is no recovery for National? Their demographic are dying off, and their ideological loyalty has gone. All National will be are a few South Island electorates and the pretense of a national identity they barely recognize any longer.

ACT and the extreme polarization they reflect are the new unhinged Right wing.

 

TDB Recommends NewzEngine.com

 

Party Support Change from last month
Labour 44.8% ↓1.0
National 22.5% ↑1.2
ACT 16.6% ↑1.7
Greens 6.4% ↓3.2
NZ First 3.6% ↑1.1
Māori 1.5% ↑0.3

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119 COMMENTS

  1. As a leftie. I might vote for ACT as a protest vote too!

    Why?
    Because the current government is fuckn useless! And so too is the Left ffs!

      • Denny knows he’s always welcomed on the left. Just try asking see less for benefit hikes. 🙂

        Hope you know what your doing. Safe travels.

        • I am and always will be on the, a, leftie.
          It’s a ‘protest’ vote that I’d be making. Understand that?
          A ‘protest’ vote. It has nothing to do with the policy or anything that ACT stands for.

          And, again, the dummies on the left. A coalition between ACT & Labour in 2023, will be what Labour and identity politics experts will have created.

          The Tuakana & the Tena reunited after 38 years or so.

          • Just imagine if the left was as bold and combative as Seymour. I detest ACT’s policy as much as anyone, but Seymour’s bomb-throwing and ideological courage is the ideal ‘circuit-breaker’ to the moribund radical centrism that has been sleepwalking us to the brink over the last couple decades.

            It’s sink or swim time – I for one welcome a future election where I and my friends talk about the options in front of us and don’t shrug, roll our eyes, and exclaim ‘what difference does it make?’ What the rise of ACT should tell us is that there’s a rising tide of people who just want to see a decisive and meaningful change in NZ politics, one way or another. If it forces the left to roll up their shirtsleeves and actually grapple with the meaningful issues in front of us, GOOD.

            Seymour isn’t a lunatic, he’s a slick little bastard – we’re seeing it in his numbers, the more people hysterically attack him the more he wins when people actually listen to him.

            • See-less is a jumped up twit, with very damaging ideas for our nation. Don’t be fooled by his spin.
              – Cut and freeze the Minimum wage
              – Interest back on all student loans
              – No Kiwsaver subsidy
              – Cancel winter energy payment
              – Dump all climate crisis legislation
              – No more best start payments for families with new borns
              – Cut welfare payments
              – No tax credits for research and development
              – Cuts to working for families
              – $7b a year cut in public services
              – Abolish Maori seats
              – Abolish Human Rights Commission

            • Those weren’t protest votes James – most Brits wanted to leave the EU, for good reason.

              I do like the song reference though.

      • Only stupid turkeys vote for Xmas. Face it, being diabolically cruel (ACT) is far worse than being “bloody useless” (Labour).

        • It’s always best not to be a turkey & turkeys don’t generally get to vote, but everyone loves Christmas right? So if ACT makes sense to you, there’s a good chance you’re not a turkey, and don’t mind spending $70 on a roast bird at Christmas.

          If you are on minimum wage or a benefit, ACT is not the party for you, but then sadly, neither is Labour.

    • Even Gordon Brittas would attempt to end child poverty and would not be happy about house prices rising 40% in one year. The current placeholder is simply doing nothing about anything and biding her time for her Hollywood / UN career.

    • @ Denny Paoa.
      You write:
      “As a leftie. I might vote for ACT as a protest vote too!”
      Then you’re not a ‘leftie’ and I’d go so far as to write by using a belittling term such as ‘leftie’ you’re far more likely a ‘rightie’ wearing sheep’s clothing.
      Further more, I don’t agree with you that Labour is ‘fuckn’ useless.
      I know, that makes me a hypocrite because I severely criticise Labour for a number of reasons but I must also give Labour credit for trying to navigate the dark, deep, dysfunctional cluster fuckery of the natzo’s making and their weird, dirty greedy little mutant appendage that’s known as ACT.
      The National Party did this. All of this. All that we can see as being hardship in AO/NZ? Including ACT? Is on the National Party. All this after years of sponging off farmers and lying to the rest of us.
      The only useful ‘thing’ re ACT is that they’re so arrogant and shameless in their deviant greed and the promotion of the gleeful cruelties they want to unleash upon those most vulnerable is that by their own admission, there they are! Right in front of us! In plain sight ! They’re no longer the dangerous ghost in our political machine. We can see them.
      Put simply; ACT is an abomination. ACT is an aberration, an abhoration, a psychotic anomaly staffed by narcissists and psychopaths who will , without a hesitation, get a frisson up their little cocks or in their shrivelled, frayed old fannys when they see a lonely, homeless person or better still, if they’ve got their hungry kids with them in the logical fallacy that’s Auckland’s greedy streets. They’ll get that feeling that the otherwise soulless crave; the feeling of power.
      There’s a chilling Netflix series titled ‘Midnight Mass’.
      “Midnight Mass is an American supernatural horror streaming television miniseries created and directed by Mike Flanagan and starring Zach Gilford, Kate Siegel, Hamish Linklater, Samantha Sloyan, Rahul Kohli and Henry Thomas. The plot centers on an isolated island community that experiences supernatural events after the arrival of a mysterious priest.[1] It was released on Netflix on September 24, 2021,[2] and received positive reviews.”
      It’s chilling because [it] could easily be a metaphor for the rise of ACT.
      Check it out and be prepared to be scared shitless.

      • CB. I disagree. It’s not too difficult to understand?

        It’s a Protest Vote.

        The left is fuckd up with the Qanon conspiracy namely Identity Politic. The rear guard of the left are quietly shaking their heads in disappointment whilst buying and flipping houses and watching their wealth grow and there’s fuck all houses been built! Poverty, Health, Terrorism etc … are all been left for someone to attend too later, much later.

        So having to ‘prove’ leftie credentials is a thing of the past in today’s time…all you have to do is ‘believe’ in something and then you are whatever that something is.

    • There are options @ Denny.
      I don’t think ACT is one of them.

      We can send the required message by voting Gween, or MP even IF the former is being useless.

      There’s another big problem though that has me wondering whether quite a few senior/muddle management bureaucrats are intentionally trying to undermine this gummint – specifically in the likes of MoH, the Munstry of Everything, MSD, Krekshuns, Nzta et al

      • Hell no! Not the gweens ever again! Have always been a Labour/Maori Party/Green voter but they’re all fucked up with lameass ID politics and a lot of Hubba bubba do nothing for the past 4 years, meanwhile Housing, Poverty, Homelessness Terrorism, Health & Ed all grow unrestrained!

        But again, I have to repeat myself. It’s a Protest Vote! Any reasonably experienced politico would understand that, especially after the last 30 years and 9 or so MMP elections where even a split vote can mean the same thing.

      • Why on earth would you vote for the green party, they are even less useful then the labour party and at best act only as rubber stamps in order to keep their pay.

        • Simply to send a message – as in a protest vote. Far better than voting for the batshit twerking .crazy ACToids.
          So far for me it’s likely to be MP as a protest vote. Having said that, Gweens have one or two worth their salt.
          We all deserve better though than having to keep voting for the least worst option.
          One day, (probably after I’m long gone), we might return to voting for the policies we believe in rather than the personalities – that is of course if the personalities haven’t completely caused the destruction of Mutha Earth.

      • ‘Institutional treason’ is to be expected and ultimately the result of Labs craven cowardly resistance to a bit of house cleaning…the ministries are dyed in the wool neo liberals, it was the dominant paradigm during their educations and all through their careers, expecting different from them is like expecting them to walk on water.

      • Absolutely not. Just fucked off with …” Labour is the Latte middle-class overly sensitive gender-based racist discriminatory wishy-washy unreliable political party.

        What do they stand for? Let me think? Oh, that’s right, change. Every five minutes or when they get spooked by their shadow or somebody else’s or the polls suck or when a group of crusties clad in lycra run a Twitter campaign for a fuckn bridge ffs!”

    • [As a leftie. I might vote for ACT as a protest vote too!]

      If we we all voted for ACT as a “protest vote”, then we might perhaps finish with an ACT/National government!!

      If one must protest it would be better to vote for a party like Social Credit which at least has worthwhile policies.

    • Hahaha hilarious. As if that would ever happen? How would Marama earn such a big salary elsewhere? James would be snapped up by woke corporation.

      • I thought you would have learnt by now.

        1. No, that’s a speculation that could explain the differences, as can be done with any observation.
        2. Again no, the age gap is not in conflict.
        3. The conflict here is not with male vs female, just within you.

      • Ha ha ha good call TK. Easy to see The Shawrax working for a woke corporation, but yes Marama might have to take a pay-cut.

    • @ SAM. I totally agree. Common sense also agrees.
      Chloe Swarbrick as sole leader of The Green Party in alliance with Labour who then welds our agrarian PRIMARY INDUSTRY with our now regenerative and organic farmers’ down stream service industry sector would create a new AO/NZ that’d flourish. And I feel qualified in writing that because I’m a farmer who also has a moth mentality; I’m drawn to bright city lights thus I’ve seen both sides of that which the right wing have buried for generations. No matter how grey and bleak the beach, there’s always a gem to be found @ SAM.
      Not good news for you bankers, money lenders, parasitic in-poverty-people exploiters, landlords, realesnake agents, the private prison industry and all those others who’ve invested heavily in the industries of societal dysfunction. But don’t worry. An unfettered economy rising out of a liberated AO/NZ could give you a basic income and somewhere warm and safe to live.
      ( I’ve just looked above… What a cackling, cacophony rising up out of all the little right wing roosters? Once one stops taking them seriously they come across as bloody hilarious !)

      • Hey Countryboy as a tree-planting organic farmer I can say there is no NZ political party that supports regen farming. Or any farming at all really other than pure big corporate agribusiness. Yes the Greens give lip service to the idea of sustainable food production, but most of their policies are really all about providing massive economic incentives to replace all farming (organic, regen or otherwise) with pine plantations in the name of climate change.

          • But the current result of carbon credits is that offshore interests get to buy up productive New Zealand farmland and plant it with pine trees as carbon storage that can’t be harvested. It locks up productive farm land, creates no additional jobs, destroys rural communities and is basically a scam that allows big polluters to going on polluting. Hardly a Green initiative to be proud of.

        • The Greens (and Labour) are even more cynical and disingenuous than that. They’re perfectly happy to destroy the NZ agriculture sector and then make free-trade agreements with extremely dubious regions that don’t give a flying fuck about the climate change we’re supposed to be combating (think the US, South America, China) and thus hence forth be forced to import our food from them doing MORE damage to the climate than what we were doing here (due to transport, fertiliser, irrigation, worse climate etc).

    • But they are doing it. We can all be queer, and Men can go to the ladies loo, changing rooms, saunas, sports, etc. What more do you want? Lol. Go watch the submissions on their ‘self id’ bill and watch them earn their 6 figure wages. Heck, this is hte best job Marama Davidson could have ever dreamed of earning. Money for nothing and perks for free. Same goes for dear Chloe and dear James.

      • The machine guns never went away, though Labour did manage to make over 100000 semi-autos disappear into thin air. Now if they could make the housing crisis & poverty vanish as easily, they’d be amazing.

  2. Let’s be honest females under the age of 40 are 75% hard baked to Jacinda (not Labour). Therefore team right need to suck up every other demographic which is highly unlikely and hope Winston First gets over 5% and decides to go the right (at best a 50/50 proposition).

    The only thing that changes this is a significant economic recession. This is a 40/60 proposition and will be dependent on what happens in the US and China.

    What is happening and polls are unable to demonstrate is the hardening of attitudes on both sides. This is the real story that nobody in the feckless wants to report on. The absolute venom being spit at each other. NZ consensus politics is dead in the water.

      • Maybe. But don’t hold out hope. Exhibit A – The Muppets that gave the Gisborne venue a 1 star just because he criticized the PM.

        These people are nut jobs and as unhinged as Trump supporters. And there are a lot of them. More than you think.

  3. I believe Martyn’s “ what if” moment might be one of fear. What can the electorate live with if labour losers or wins. Let’s see, first option more of the same. Next National, the same as labour but might actually achieve something. Act , liberal no rules, everyone for themselves, less tax take for social development. The greens are there but useless. Mmmm not a lot of options. Sort of comes down to whether the electorate wants change, any change. People voted for the greens last time but not as much now. Labour won’t do as well, my opinion. National Act could be a threat. !!

  4. Yes, Nashnull gets closer to the end with each reactionary conservative boomer funeral–as does NZ First really. Younger Neo Lib tories may well have to move to ACT with the Incels and gun lovers!

    One answer to Mr Seymour’s policy list is to put up some easy to understand class left ones.
    –Free Wifi and fare free public transport nationwide
    –Basic income to all citizens via IRD
    –Free tertiary and training and life time education
    –Restore power generation & supply to full public ownership
    –Capital gains tax on more than two properties
    –Rent control, State house & apartment mega build, incl tiny houses for homeless
    –Urgent move to an Eco nation with sustainable energy and farming (bye bye Industrial level Dairy)
    –National coastal shipping line and rail network
    –Ditch 5 Eyes and become a truly independent Pacific nation with bi lateral mutually beneficial trade agreements and relations with other countries

    Aotearoa NZ’s future is as a non aligned Eco socialist country–Labour and Greens MPs will go for that like a glass of cold chunder–but the demands have to put up for the boomer replacement generations to consider. Neo liberal orthodoxy has locked out other ideas for decades now and it is time to move on.

    • Labour had 1 full term and is now in the second year of its second term.
      Surely they could have done a list such as yours and even delivered on it. 🙂

      • They could have @ Sabine. Bit increasingly, I’m coming around to the idea that the biggest handbrake is actually the senior and muddle management ranks of the bureaucracy. However, MORE FUCKING FOOL some of Labour’s munsters for continuing to have “complete faith in their officials” AND the cistern in which they operate.
        it ISN’T just what H! once described as “lack of capacity”. It’s more than that. There are now countless examples. One (just as an example) is the complete shambles that is our MIQ system. There are many others (to do with things like lack of any sort of meaningful attempts at prisoner rehabilitation. Or NZTA ffs!
        I’d suggest a big part of it is the commitment to a dying ideology or cult – which is probably why I don’t/can’t blame JA so much because she’s grown up knowing nothing else.
        I’m finding it harder though to find excuses for the likes of Little and one or two others, and of course then there’s Faafoi. Hard to explain how a reasonably smart leader with an IQ over about 100 hasn’t yet seen through that procrastinating specimen

        • Correct OnceWasTim. Neoliberalism is so entrenched in our legislation it is very hard to override. The problem is 35 years old now and I think these Politicians of today have only been selected as candidates because it is entrenched in them also.

    • Hi, Tiger Mountain,
      I agree with some of your policies but think some of them need a bit to be added:
      – Free Wifi and free public transport nationwide, yes, but provided you can get everywhere by public transport (e.g. today you cannot get to Mangawhai etc.), the frequency of vehicles and of stops must be adequate (no good travelling somewhere by bus and to have to walk half an hour to get to your destination) and the system of information must be adequate (timetables at the stops, voice announcements about stops on the buses, trains etc).
      – Free tertiary and training education, absolutely agree. But it must be restricted to New Zealanders and to one study. If e.g.someone wants to study again after finishing one study, he/she will have to pay as well as for prolonged studies due to poor results.
      – Capital gain tax on more than two properties – agree.
      – State house and apartment mega build including tiny emergency houses – agree but there must be some rules applied, e.g. if the state owned houses or flats are rented, the people who live there must be responsible for the everyday maintenance of the property and pay for any damage.
      – National coastal shipping line and rail network – agree, but there can be some privately owned ones as well.

      – Basic income to all citizens is a nice idea provided the citizens are angels. We are not, so rather no.
      – Urgent move to an Eco nation – agree as for waste management, pollution of ocean, but disagree about CO2 levels. Don’t believe it is caused by humans, don’t believe it is harmful, contrary, it is beneficial for all green plants. And more, if NZ leaves these policies there will be resources to finance those that work for people.
      – To become an independent Pacific nation – again nice idea in an ideal world which the one we live in is not. I remember when in Slovakia we had to decide via referendum if we want to be a part of the EU. Many people were not very enthusiastic about it but the alternative of becoming the ally of Russia pushed the decision to yes.

    • I wish you would spell National correctly, Nash Null always reminds me of Stuart Nash, who is about as useless as it gets (well I guess there is a lot of stiff competition for that crown, but he’s definitely a null, & void of useful ideas) and is a key member of the Labour Party, not National. A useless, angry muppet, and I prefer not to think about him.

  5. Old conservatives will never die – simply recreate themselves – just check out Rimmer and his rag-tag group of supporters giving the conservatives a “rark-up”. The reality is that the right have a mortgage on the capital in Aotearoa New Zealand and I cannot see any them parting with their inherited wealth any time soon.

    Criticism of the left is harsh given the complexity of our current situation. Key and his cronies had plain sailing for the most part – apart from the Christchurch quake – and still managed to butcher the economy … not to mention health, education and welfare. The left of given the task of fixing this and then improving things – but this can’t and won’t happen overnight. Then there was Covid.

  6. What truly dreadful prospects we face at the 2023 election. Jacinda’s jiggery wokery, ACT’s freemarket fundamentalism, or the void known as National.

    I’ll hold my nose and vote for Winston.

  7. Left (and right) have become pretty useless terms now. If only there was some word for a political party that represents the interests of people who have to work to survive as opposed to those whose wealth works for them.

    New labour = no labour

    Labour’s greatest crime is continuing a monetary policy that effectively cuts the wage of every single working person by 10% to 15% each year. Forget having a union that negotiates a pay rise, we have a government that cuts our wage by a half every five years.

    I hope nobody responds with the CPI propaganda bullshit that inflation is low. That’s a government lie. You only have to look at the price of real assets (house anyone?) to see where inflation is really at.

    • Inflation is the worst it’s been in a decade or more. Out in the real world people are double-taking at their supermarket receipts and frowning at the cost of a kg of cheese and mince, and a few lamb shanks – or the cost of fuel and rent. We’re all talking about it. There is a rising swell of grassroots discontent without any particular target. David Seymour seems to understand this subtly increasing radicalization (incoherent as it is), and that’s why he’s surging in the polls, despite the regular scoldings he gets.

      The left needs to pull finger, COVID is killing the dominant political status quo as surely as any individual.

      • “We’re all talking about it.”

        None of the people I’ve talked to in the past week talked about it. Granted it’s only a couple of dozen in the flesh and several others on line.

  8. “Dump all climate crisis legislation” ?!

    If you’re christian you should think again about voting for Act. The Book of Revelation plagues are all about climate change. Any mention of fire is about climate change. At least it can be interpreted that way. If you think otherwise you most definitely could be wrong. Many major events that have happened in our life time can be seen in the metaphors of Revelation. I’m not even christian, and it’s clear (it’s not proof of the christian god btw)

    Don’t worry, no one will be killed by god. Being killed is just a metaphor for the most part (climate change events could kill you)

    If I have the next metaphor correct (chapter 12), a major recession will occur shortly (no, not in some kind of god time where 2000 years is one second)

    • “Labour’s greatest crime is continuing a monetary policy that effectively cuts the wage of every single working person by 10% to 15% each year. ”

      If you’re talking about GST, I’ll agree that’s ONE of LINO’s greatest crimes. Others include continuing to run government departments like pseudo-corporations, and continuing the user-pays model of university funding that emphasizes quantity not quality.

  9. ACT:
    “Provide every child with a Student Education Account. A child will receive $250,000 of taxpayer-funded education over their life, but parents have little choice in how it’s spent. ACT will empower parents by placing this money in a Student Education Account. Parents will be able to use it at any registered educational institution that will accept their child’s enrolment, public or private.”

    Sounds like time to get in the banking business or the Education Accounts business.
    Ministry of education won’t be running the scheme; “Reduce the number of back office bureaucrats at the Ministry of Education by 50 per cent, saving $240 million a year. We will put this money back into frontline education.”

    Schools obviously will employ people to do with the book-keeping or have agencies doing it:

    “ACT will give every child a Student Education Account at the age of two. Each year until a student is 18, $12,000 will be placed into that Account. At the age of 18, they will receive a further $30,000 for tertiary education, with up to $50,000 available top academic achievers through a scholarship program. Over half of students will receive a scholarship.

    Parents will be able to spend that money at any registered education institution, public or private, that will accept their child’s enrolment.”

    Accept their child’s enrolment? I’d love the job or ‘accepting’ or not.
    “Sorry, we have an over supply of kids trying to get in but your child with learning disabilities is going to be a cost us a lot. I suggest you take him to ….”
    “Sure, we have plenty trying to get in but we’d love to have your son here. He’s a great rugby player and will bring in a lot of sponsorship.”

    • oh @ I, I whole heartedly agree dear chap/chapess. It’d be rather gorgeous too if people (including our dear leader and her speech writers and advisors, along with specimens who claim to be of the 4th Estate) realised that the word ‘brought’ is still a word and that ‘brought’ and ‘bought’ are not the same thing.
      It’s be thoroughly gorgeous.
      But nit picking is now so 20th Century and in this lovely little nayshun that punches above its weight, there are many that struggle to get an education. Let alone a decent feed or a roof over their head

      • Here’s a real good one: Should of – as in “Should of voted Labour”. Now that’s a real kiwi classic. I should of thought of it, and maybe I would of, if someone else hadn’t beaten me to it. Oh well, I loose again.

  10. What never ceases to amaze me is the unflinching, militant protection of the elected Labour MPs (particularly Jacinda Ardern). They are, all but few, career politicians who feast from the public trough; more concerned with their faux celebrity status; champagne socialists; and have no backbone when it comes to delivering on their so called roots. The PM is a case in point: relishing the attention of journalists; becoming besties with famous chefs; trying to be in with the ‘youth’ and middle to upper class women; and is more desperate to stay relevant and hold power than deliver the transformative change deaired by the left. If it wasn’t for a mass murderer and a deadly virus, the current lot would have nothing to show for.

  11. Yep, Act will go like gangbusters. Happy about that. You’d expect National to propose a $250 tax credit for vaxxing. Or Labour. Or the Greens. Oh well, leave to ACT to come with useful ideas.

  12. ” Oh well, leave to ACT to come with useful ideas ”

    Yeah offer the $250 then collect it back by cutting expenditure in every area of the economy and raise GST as Key and English did last time to punish and victimise the poorest of our people so the wealthy donors got to keep even more of their wealth.

    The most frightening thing is that the sleepy Hobbits will think its a great idea and vote for it.

  13. Has the Jacinda Dictatorship done anything they promoted in there campaign? Serious question there. I’m feeling squeezed out of Auckland and soon my country. This is the saddest govt i’ve seen in 40 years. So much hope, so little follow through.

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