TVNZ Poll – The rise of ACT


The stamp of authority on private UMR polling, Taxpayer Union polling and Roy Morgan polling that has been showing the Right rising have all been proven salient now TVNZ have reflected it in their polling.

The far right have been steadily outshining National and it’s time the Left understood why, because with NZ First highly likely to cross 5%, progressive policy that provides actual solutions to our inequality and poverty are going to be edged out by Winston’s brand of conservatism.

There are inevitably political winners & losers.

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The Daily Blog – We have been arguing for 3 years that the middle class identity politics attack on Free Speech ruptured a dormant political fault line on the right which transformed ACT into the Right Wing values party and that this ‘activism’ by the woke is actually providing political ammunition for ACT. TDB argued that this would eventuate in ACT eclipsing National and this poll is the ‘I fucking told you so express’. Apparently woke dogma that stipulates all white people are irredeemable racists, all men are rapists and anyone defending free speech is a uniform wearing Nazi is as electorally appealing as drinking a cup of cold vomit. Who woulda thunk it?

ACT – The insanity is that ACT are a dangerous far right political party with truly horrific year zero policies that would start a race war and class war the moment dead eyed David Seymour grasped power, but he looks like Rimmer from Red Dwarf and he twerked on Dancing with the Stars, so he’s considered goofy and non threatening, like catching Syphilis at Disneyland.

Naked virulent Racism – You have to hand it to racist NZ! I thought David’s deplorable vandalism of public health by tweeting out a code for Maori to use to gain access to vaccines would shatter ACTs carefully crafted pretense at being normal and see ACT nosedive for such a racist prank, but the racists rewarded such willful mutilation of a public health campaign aimed at getting more indigenous people vaccinated! I underestimated your ignorance, your hate and your zest for life at actively attempting to push Maori aside and left for dead. Shame on me for underestimating you all.

Banjo twanging Redneck NZ – Has there ever been a better time to be alive for banjo twanging red neck NZ? ACT are promising their babies guns, their farmers to pollute forever and something hateful about Maaaaoris. This is the golden age of red neck promise where ACT can tell them any old garbage with no responsibility of ever implementing any of it. If David Seymour thought it would get him one more redneck vote, he’d fuck a tractor.

NZ First – If Winston is polling 3% this far out from the election, he is most certainly over 5% on Election Day.

Maori Party – Still polling 2% in pakeha polls suggests they are another 1% on Election Day. There is a very good chance The Maori Party will double their number of MPs come 2023.

Labour & Jacinda – Despite having to implement another brutal lockdown, they are still polling at extraordinary levels of support. 43% in the middle of a crippling pandemic is still outrageous fortune.


The middle class Identity Politics clique – These pious fools, the Wellington Twitterati with their critical race theory and critical gender theory, with their Woke dogma and their spectacular capacity to alienate voters are a wonder to behold. Drawing their support from The Spinoff and Stuff, their use of inclusivity to exclude and start Woke lynch mobs attempting to cancel anything that triggers them is mommy blogger level pettiness in a outrage Olympics that only managed to make ACT more popular by the month. The woke would eat their own young if they weren’t all vegan.

Judith & National – They are in a death spiral, ACT has taken all their vote under 60 leaving them with an ever shrinking boomer electorate of people who don’t read. Judith is so busy fighting David for leader of the Opposition that she can’t be the Leader of the Opposition. She’s fighting with ACT over who can be more racist and while 35% of the electorate love that tune, it’s never enough to win an election. You could replace Judith with Frank Sinatra, Elvis & Jesus and National would still get 21%.

Greens – With NZ First looming, the Greens will once again be politically irrelevant in 2023. They are currently flying to Glasgow for another hollow virtue signal on the environment and will return to the noxious identity politics nonsense that has them screaming ‘transphobe’ at anyone who thinks differently to them. The Greens are as insufferable as that new TV advert by Spark showing a non binary millennial loving sea shanty’s right up until they realise it’s about whaling and in perfect Millennial style then turns on it online.


ACT’s sudden rise because of National’s implosion means much of their crazy far undergrad right wing policy is not being examined at all…

  • Cut and freeze the Minimum wage
  • Interest back on all student loans
  • No Kiwsaver subsidy
  • Cancel winter energy payment
  • Dump all climate crisis legislation
  • no more best start payments for families with new borns
  • cut welfare payments
  • no tax credits for research and development
  • cuts to working for families
  • $7b a year cut in public services
  • Abolish Maori seats
  • Abolish Human Rights Commission

…no one is voting ACT because of these crazy policies, I doubt most of the new ACT converts have any idea of these polices, ACT is now a Right Wing Values Party and right wingers who have been let down by National are flocking to Seymour.

It started – LIKE I FUCKING WARNED IT WOULD – when the bloody woke identity politics activists went on their deplatforming rampage and tried to strangle free speech off.

In the end, David invited a feminist conference onto Parliament grounds because Masey Uni in Wellington deplatformed it!

The woke ended up making David a free speech hero FFS!

I warned the woke at the time that all they were doing was giving ACT the ammunition ACT would use against us, and that picking a free speech fight with Seymour could awaken a dormant electoral fault line that will bite us in the arse.

Once ACT started registering 2MPs, it became a viable political vehicle for the Gun festishists and David’s ongoing performance has made him the defacto Leader of the Opposition.

As National have floundered, ACT have looked stronger and people’s gut political values have done the rest.

The problem is ACT are so fucking right wing that the idea of them + National being the answer to 2023’s issues could only be true if we have been invaded by UFOs and they are demanding all members of the Government must be immediately handed over as human sacrifices to our new Alien overlords.

In THAT scenario, voting ACT + National makes sense.

Outside that scenario, no.

Once left wing and centrist voters realise just how far right ACT really are, the fear of keeping them from Government will outweigh whatever sin Jacinda has committed.

ACT’s sudden and uncritical rise will hurt National and win Labour the 2023 election.

It’s easy to cry wolf when the wolf is a brain hungry zombie dog hunting for human flesh in a premature infants ward.

ACT will eclipse National once the Hate Speech legislation starts up and the Woke hand Seymour even more ammunition as their threshold for ‘hate’ frightens male Labour Party voters away.

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      • Ti ho . Yes tides out for National Fwankie and unless the unwashed ACT party can take votes from the left, you’ll be making the same statement after the next election.
        At present votes are bouncing from National to ACT, hardly a ringing endorsement of the right bloc. And it’s a sad day when Collins can’t see the writing on the wall. At least you are part of the 26% that keep Collins hopes alive my friend.

        • Nah Bertie – I converted to Act. Bishop’s uninspiring we’ll do the same just less shit than Labour covid strategy was the final nail. And the prospect of uncle Fester as leader is about appealing as picking up my dog’s turds on the beach.

          That said I have a feeling John “rugby’ key is putting his feelers out in a “fuck it i’ll do it myself” Thanos’ like play. I still LOL every time I think of “Smug Hermit Kingdom”.

          • You are funny Fwankie, that I’ll concede that. If Planet Key is Key’s utopia Smug Hermit Kingdom sums up his belief that we are just all peasants at his disposal.

            As an aside what covid strategy would you have gone with Frwankie.

            • Bertie you know me. I would let it rip @ 80% double jab and supply of vaccine guaranteed at everyone wanting it. No face masks no nothing. Cold turkey – let’s do this.

              I don’t say this to upset people but am firm in my view on this. We will all get a variant of covid in the next 5 years unless of course you want to live in a protective bubble.

              • Actually, unlike Mickey two blue eyes whose concrete thinking allows no headway, I actually agree with your thinking and everything you have said. Why?. You make complete sense.

          • Seymour has always been a slick little shit, and yet almost every day he finds new ways to impress me with his razor-sharp skullduggery. That silly stunt with the vaccine code was so masterful I am kind of in awe of this guy – the whole idea was to get the Usual Suspects quixotically screeching in the compliant media about how terrible he is, and then try and see for themselves, only to discover that he isn’t exactly Hitler 2.0 after all. Imagine discovering that your whole career was such a pitiful puddle of puke, and that nobody fucking cares. Bomber was an old man shouting at clouds as a toddler, probably.

            Seymour is a serious man with a serious plan, and people can smell it. They’re confused and nervous, they’re just tired of the chronically underqualified, flaccid kindergarten teachers nervously shuffling the papers on their desks while the world around them burns.

            • ACT will ‘Dump all climate crisis legislation’, so yeah they will actually take a can of petrol and a match and help it on its way

    • So triggered by me aren’t you Bert lol. Good for you that Labour are still polling so high. Hopefully they can win a third term and continue on worsening all the issues you demonized National for. Well done them and you…

      • MickeyBoyle two blue eyes it appears you whom is triggered by me. How can things be worsening if they are just a continuation of the fucked up mess National left us in. We’ll done you and them for leaving us with such atrocities. Now back under the rock from which you crawled.
        But yes they will win a third term but not by hope nor by the absurd belief the right will do better by us.

        • So by your own admission things aren’t improving, they’re just a continuation of poor results under National. The truth is results in key areas that affect our most vulnerable, are actually worse now than when Key was in charge. That’s the difference between you and me though isnt it Bert. I don’t accept incompetence and worsening outcomes just because “that’s my team” whilst I have previously denounced other parties failures. I hold all representatives by the same standard. I don’t get all salty because “my team” is getting criticized, I demand better. You are the perfect voter. You vote for the same people no matter how poorly they are performing. Well done you. Keep firing blanks champ.

          • You have constantly harped on about worsening outcomes champ, yet as always you have failed to provide stats or evidence. And what are your measures? What were the numbers they have worsened from?
            Don’t take it personally champ but you are seriously hopeless.

        • There is a lot of water to flow before the next election but if National are in a no win situation I would cross myself and vote Labour if it meant they did not need to go with Greens or Winston to form a government . Now I have said it I am off to have a scream

  1. Some of the headlines yesterday tried to insist Labour’s drop in 3% had gone to directly to ACT.
    But surely the National drop in 3% is more likely to go to ACT, and Labour votes perhaps to NZF (who as Bomber points out, are far from spent)?
    National have royally screwed themselves. Look at their leadership options in that Leaders Poll. They are paying the ultimate price for Dirty Politics, which has attracted only venal shallow types to their ranks.
    Short term gain, for long term pain.

        • That’s a logical explanation Bert, makes sense.
          Real concerns for the Nats, whose image is shot to pieces thanks to years of Dirty Politics. Chickens coming home to roost there.

          • Outside of the beltway and tribal left nobody cares about dirty politics. They care about houses, jobs, schools etc. They are basic creatures. Your analysis is incredibility simplistic. But since most people in the Smug Hermit Kingdom prefer simple:

            1). Female voters over the age of 30 went to Jacinda post covid
            2). Increasingly same demographic are getting pissed off with life in Smug Hermit Kingdom
            3). National still shit, Seymour has got his shit together. Pack up their votes and move to Act.

            Dirty politics, Slater et al are furthest from their mind.

            Their husbands bleating on about “Cindy”, having to home school their kids, not being allowed to go to their batch in the Coromandel or get a haircut is front of their mind however.

  2. I suspect Labour expected to be up, at least until elimination failed.

    So could it be that a government whose unimaginative ministers go to work to be told what do by their ministries and who never seem to have a plan forward, much less a workable plan, are starting to be found out? It supporters waking up to the fact there never is a plan? For anything?

    It’s not just repeat Auckland lockdowns that is their problem, it’s everything.

    Ardern Labour as it transpired are centre right, only slightly milder than National but without the achievements to go with their kindred sister, I am truly sorry to say.

    I predict Labour dropping into the 30’s in a poll or two. And a mutiny in National sooner than that.

  3. ……..You could replace Judith with Frank Sinatra, Elvis & Jesus and National would still get 21%.……John Key?

  4. It is still a long way to go to the next election in 2023. I wished they’d call a quick one soon. It might even save the Latte club!

    But Bombers analysis is pretty much on the money. I hope the part where the gweens give up been vegans and end up eating their own and the Latte Lite team go fuck themselves hard somewhere in a cupboard whilst deciding to or not to Build Some Fucking Houses!

    But all-n-all, I like the trend. At least we’ll be getting MMP back.

    An Act and Labour coalition government looks likely because as we know, the gweens always over poll pre election so they’re looking like dog tucker.
    They, like Labour got lucky with the covid bounce in 2020. That’s not going to happen again for them both.
    Only a World War will save them now. Thats a 10% to 15% possibility I guess?

    So roll on dealing with the Crisises, Homelessness, Poverty, Housing, Health, Terrorism and Education and Covid.

    The list keeps on getting added too without any of the 2017 election promises addressed. Go Figure. Go Hard! or Go Home!

    • “…Act and Labour coalition government looks likely”

      Denny that’s just absurd. One loves big govt, big bureaucracy, big regulation, big compliance , big taxes…whereas the other doesn’t.

    • “At least we’ll be getting MMP back.”
      And when we do, I hope both the MP and “Gweens” – who hopefully will have come to their senses by ’23, will exact a price for propping up a party that’s yet to shed itself of the cult of neoliberalism.
      Ekshully, it might just be what the Gweens need. At least there’s a couple of them that seem to have their shit together, content as they are with their identities.
      Really, best to just let it all play out and if it transpires that we get the worst worst option, it might make Labour and its cabal of PR sperts, maketeers, spin meisters and language manipulators to reflect on how they wasted their mandate.

  5. “If David Seymour thought it would get him one more redneck vote, he’d fuck a tractor.” – very funny

      • It’d actually be funnier than you think. He’d be wondering which hole is the most socially acceptable and career-advancing to plug – either standing up or horizontal.
        I guess he could always ask that specimen of the Tex Pay Yas Onion. (Jordan Williams from memory is the name) Or even that specimen of Dirty Politics fame.
        (Deepest sympathy to their families) pffft

  6. Do I detect that you may not like ACT very much Marty…I may be wrong? But yes you’re right…it is exactly because of the woke wanking-left that I am driven to ACT whether I like it or not. I also fooking hate seat-polishing bureaucrats, regulation, public sector bloat and compliance, etc that successive govts ram down my throat when all I want them to do is to fuck-off and leave me alone, without having to pay them for a permit to fart. ACT are the ultimate freedom party, less govt, less bullshit, less handouts to losers and wasters like the Mob. So of course they will get votes. The whole pack of them in parliament are fuckwits, it’s proven, so it’s really just about picking the least-worst of them. I would rather vote for The Wiggles so I hope they put up a candidate.

  7. I don’t like ACT but they have not betrayed me, so I will vote for them just to let Labour feel some of the pain I am feeling.

  8. It’s taken me a while but what we have in this particular Labour government is one that governs and decision makes totally by poll. More than any other I have seen.

    It explains why they never seem to have a plan. They see it as better to never have anything planned and to roll with the punches. It makes a truly useless government however.

    It explains why Jacinda could not care less about housing because atm, it’s not harming them in the polls even though hurting plenty of ordinary people.

    It explains the idiotic bike bridge. They mistook the bicycle lobby protest/Greater Auckland types as popular when in fact they are as likeable as standing in fresh dog shit. Wood panicked, threw out an imaginary bike bridge announcement, they polled for the next few months, realised it was as popular as Covid and Robertson quietly disposed of it.

    It explains the scattergun approach to decision making in general and a lack of achievement.

    Our PM is a political strategist rather than a PM. It’s governing in the moment. And it’s hopeless.

    But the one minister who is quietly working away in the background, achieving for his constituents, is Willie Jackson, the Maori Health Authority is evidence of that. (Others in the Maori caucus may be worthy of credit).

    Pity Jacinda so lacks the confidence to see that in action and realise she is only held back only by her imagination or lack thereof and conviction to see something worthwhile through.

  9. “progressive policy that provides actual solutions to our inequality and poverty are going to be edged out by Labours brand of conservatism” (fixed it for you )

    You get the working class better then just about nz commentator I can think of but I don’t think Seymour is a racist I actually think he’s cleaning up with working class voters of all races who are crying out for homes, better health and mental health, better transport quality of life and what they are getting is lectures,hate speech laws, gct bans that’ll put you in jail. never ending road works right outside their houses and petitions to change the name of the country, I honestly feel like I live in an alternative dimension when I hear most left wing commentators these days, they don’t seem to get the working class, poor and many minority communities are socially conservative they don’t sit around pondering the country’s name they are wondering where their next meal is and because their concerns aren’t being addressed they are turning to players who rebel against woke dogma and identity politics.

    I hate Act but Working class and poor of all races be they Maori, Pakeha, Asian and Pasifika nzers found Seymour’s tweet funny and most working class Maori basically said “why can’t they pick up the phone and make an appointment” it was middle class people and rich people who were outraged. if Act is racist then a lot of Maori Asian, Pasifika kiwis hate themselves because Act and Nzf both get more brown votes than the greens and Maori party.

    Their classist neoliberal policies will further decimate our already decimated poor and working class and that’s how er debate them not labeling them some sort of bigot.

    Green regularly polled at 14% when Labour was polling at 26% and Winston regularly out polled labour party leaders as preferred pm. This happens but national needs to reinvent itself quickly.

    Labour and the greens are polling well but woke dogma is turning dedicated left wingers to top act and nzf.

    Working class people and people are decent people if the left disavows the woke and combines economic justice with social justice people won’t be so anti social justice but atm it’s all social justice all the time.

    Act is appealing to working class people cos nzf isn’t there but also cos it’s pro free speech, pro drug reform anti govt when govt has done nothing to help and a lot to harm them

    Honestly… My biggest issue with the team of five million crap is that this greedy selfish country has left so many behind, our govt exist more to stop people from getting help than to help them so why should anyone whose suffering from mental heal, whose hungry, can’t find a house , whose languishing on dole or having to take acc to court just to get help give a damn about a society that doesn’t give a damn about them.

    • Left wingers will NEVER vote ACT, I don’t how the hell you come to that conclusion. ACT will NOT solve any of the problems that neo-liberal ie ACT policies created and you would have to be completely off your rocker to think they could

        • Neoliberalism does not hold with any form of welfare, public assets. They would see all public assets transferred into private hands.
          On, say, Three Waters, if anyone is concerned at where ownership of this ends then goes on to vote ACT has not bothered to find out what they stand for.
          ACT is the very epitome of neoliberalism, it is sad to see that people are these days fooled by what ACT actually are.

        • Roger Douglas, Richard Prebble, Ruth Richardson etc. etc. that’s what the silly little oh! so clever person stands for . How could you people be so negative about a Labour government and support this political nightmare whose policies will decimate any form of social welfare and they will sell off all the assets ( the few that remain ) to the highest bidder.

      • Sorry fold art but you need to get out and go to a working mans Pub on a Friday night, you will be stunned. David Seymore is the ONLY politician these working men can identify with.
        There is no one on Labour’s front bench let alone the back bench that remotely looks like a “working man”
        Labour has dumped the “kiwi battler” of Norm Kirk and Mike Moore and gone for liberal urban women instead.
        David Seymore will continue to go from strength to strength

        There is no left or right anymore its personality politics.
        Just as Jacinda is the idol of the urban woman, David is becoming the champion of the working man.

        • Thank you for confirming what I have suspected for a while, that it is all about men not liking having the country run by a woman, especially a younger one.
          The world is not the property of men

        • I have spent plenty of my life in such places, to the point where when it was your round you brought a crate of beer back to the leaner, so I do know of what you refer. However, times have changed and now we HAVE to do something to address our trashing of the planet and it is a bit too bad for the bully boys of today, but they need to be in on it as well.
          There is no time left to piss arse around with this anymore.

          • Fold Art what I am pointing out is why David Seymore is on the rise .
            He appeals to the working man. In fact right now he is the only option for the working man
            Now do I agree with ACT’s policies that is quite a different question.

            What is my ideal, a return to the halcyon days of Keith Holyoake when I grew up, with out doubt for me the best of times.
            Is that return going to happen? No its not.
            Reality v Idealism

    Left or right, Labour or Nat, it’s all fun and games here as we solve the World’s problems. Truly, really, I don’t really care toooo much who is in govt; we’ve seen all flavours since living in NZ, and I’ve learnt that this country sort of runs itself more or less without politicians. Pollies think that nothing works without them, let them dream on. But that seems to be changing as NZ becomes more and more beholden to the ‘gummint’ (sorry CB) for survival and happiness. It’s a shame really, is that the NZ we want? Still it’s agreat place to be. But what frustrates me with any govt (and the Nats as they stand would be just same), but particularly Jacinda’s govt, is the constant and chronic ‘inaction’ and the almost ‘professional procrastination’ that has become so much part of govt modus operandi. Here is a small example that’s a big issue to me, because one’s govt is supposed to facilitate stuff, and help make things happen, right? There are 150 or so qualified ICU nurses waiting to get into NZ and 1000 other health staff waiting to have their residency sorted. FFS, we need those people!!! But do you think that this govt, and that fucking useless immigration minister of ours would find way around the ‘official processes’? Something a little creative to fast track those people? Or re-write the rules under these circumstances? Not a fucking chance! These nurses should be working already. Doesn’t that hack you guys off???
    And it’s those kind of inactions in all govt departments that I think have contributed to the latest poll and will also contribute to the eventual downfall of this Labour govt, seriously! Because when you are asked “Will you vote for Labour?” you make a quick mental calculation before you answer:…Covid, yes…economy, nope…housing, nope…poverty, nope…health, nope…immigration, nope…etc etc etc. More and more people will be answering “No!”.

    • What hacks me Off is we lost so many nurses and teachers under 9 years of national That we should have retained and we would not be in this mess now so remember that when you’re voting.
      That’s when we had no covid and no problems with our border. They were sold out!

    • You win the prize for best blog of the day and it is so very true life goes on for most despite the government not because of it but politicians love to feel important so every so often say something then disappear.

      • What I do agree with is people don’t forget and clearly there are many here whom haven’t forgot how Key divided our country into the have’s and the have not’s. Just ask the teachers and nurses how their incomes remained stagnant under Key and why so many left. Then ask why so many, as The Kraut say’s want to return to N.Z. to work?
        N.Z. is a better place, that’s why.

        • Just to add..

          Covid… yes
          Economy… absolutely
          Housing… now a global phenomena
          Poverty.. as previous years per capita
          Immigration…slowed down so very much yes.

        • EVERYONE
          I just acknowledged that the same shit would happen the Nats were in charge, so my frustrations of inaction would be just the same. The nurses are here now, not 9 years ago!!! But then, my mistake, I clean forgot that Bert will ALWAYS find a way to point absolutely everything back to the 9 years under National. Bert, that is so long ago, Labour has been in charge for so long now, that everyone here, including host MB and every other blogger here is as frustrated as I am with non-performance (other than Covid, well done!) – so just let the ‘last 9 years thing’ fucking go. Yes yes, we can all see how happy you are with Labour’s allround performance, which means your standards and success measures really really really really low. If this is what you call great govt, it’s fucking sad. It’s obvious that you are really just JacindaFan in disguise.

          • Oh so your answer is to shut down conversation, Key was right, we are in fact in North Korea, The Kraut has spoken.
            Go home everyone.

          • Jacindafan no longer posts, hardly surprising with the vile we read today. As a german you most definitley would like to forget your past, however many, many people, cannot forget their past and the slaughter placed upon the Jewish people. You may believe what you write but a lot you write reminds me of the atrocities of your heritage.
            Just my opinion, mind you.

            • Jewish people, homosexual people, gypsies, german dissidents, german artists, german nuns and monks and priests, communists, socialists, conservaties, slavs, russians, poles, sick children, handicapped people, mentally ill people – you forgot all of these in your bit of vitirol.
              And the difference between any german and you is that we remember our past and the last time the country went fangirling for a great ‘progressive’ candidate. You and the likes of you will still have to learn that part.

          • “Yes yes, we can all see how happy you are with Labour’s allround performance, which means your standards and success measures really really really really low.”


            All round performance, you don’t know the fucking meaning, because you’re research is lazy and your emotion clouds your judgement.

        • I’ve been a teacher for 20 years, Burt, and wages increased under National. In those 20 years it is Labour who have been in government more than National, and yet the same problems in education are continuing to occur.

          • Not a very good on Amber, the name is Bert with an “e” and I know many a teacher or nurse who will disagree, which makes me question your authenticity.

  11. Fabulous comment thread folks! Do keep up the good work. This has kept me entertained today when forced back into the house from the garden due to the disgusting perpetual and intermittent southerly squalls.

  12. The idiocy of the ‘left’ in regards to MMP.
    Many people the last time around did not vote for Jacinda, about 49 %.
    Many people also did not vote for National, around 70%
    Many people did not vote for the Greens, around 90%
    and so on and so forth.
    And not voting for dear Jacinda does not imply a vote for National.
    But then left……if one does not like red, one must like blue, while in the end both are simply just blergh.

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