ROY MORGAN POLL – Labour 41.5% National 29.5%


The latest Roy Morgan poll is out.

  • Labour 41.5% (-4% since last poll)
  • National 29.5% (+6.5%)
  • Green 13.5% (+1.5%)
  • ACT 9.0% (-2%)
  • Maori 2.5% (+1.5%)

It’s good news for Judith.

National have pushed back ACT and the Greens have clawed more from Labour’s lacklustre performance.

This poll would see a 69 seat Labour-Green Government out of a 120 seat Parliament.

That number is the crucial one to keep in mind as we run up to 2023, the combined Labour-Green margin is their buffer against National-ACT.

The Māori Party are also faring far better suggesting they are building a movement.

Judith’s dog whistling on race is too late in this poll to see working.

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  1. Hard to take Roy Morgan too seriously but…

    Although Labour’s drop is entirely predictable, their fiddling while Rome burns attitude to housing representative of the impression Labour cant seem to deliver much of anything, the Greens ascension is a total mystery. Aside from their concentration on identity politics, the Greens100% failure to even consider the fundamentals on homelessness and then do something useful, (Minister Davidson), shows just how inept they are. They too are in government and seem to come to work for the sole purpose of eating their vegan lunches.

    It times like this that Judiths campaign regarding separatist Maori governance will start to make some traction where as if Labour were actually delivering, her alarmist tactic would probably be ignored.

    I would like to see our PM start leading her government with a lot more vigour and purpose rather than letting the likes of Megan Woods fail to deliver!

  2. We have seen major manipulation of polls and surprising election results – from Brexit to Trump to Morrison…

    polls are not really worth much.

  3. I find NZF being now down on 1% the most interesting thing in that poll. But then; “Of all electors surveyed there were 6% (up 1.5% points) who didn’t name a party”, so that’s more like 44% LP to 31% NP of committed voters (14% GP, 10% ACT, though possible rounding error makes that less certain, certainly not to any decimal places). It seems reasonable to me that the NP and GP both have larger cores of committed voters, so that when the undecideds increase, they seem to be doing a bit better.
    Though polls don’t mean much without imminent elections. I guess Collins will be less miserable to be polling more than twice the GP this time – though it looks to me like just about the 26% election result +/- 3.5% Margin of Error since last October. Labour more like 43% with the same MoE, though if I were to run a regression analysis on that curve, there might be a slight negative r since April 2020. But I guess poll numbers themselves matter less than the story you can tell by joining the dots.

  4. I have had the National programme on all day and there has been no mention of this poll.. I wonder if that is because National is starting to trend up .
    I wonder what the Greens have done to deserve their upward swing.Is it Labour voters desperate to show they are not happy with the lackluster performance

  5. ” The Māori Party are also faring far better suggesting they are building a movement ”

    Wrong party to rely on for building a movement Bomber unless Judith , Luxon or one of the other muppets is leading the Nasty Natz needs the numbers in what will be a tight race if the general election goes ahead in the normal time frame in 2023.

    The Social Democrats have not been firing surprise surprise because you actually have to govern with an agenda aside from crisis management and with the insurmountable legacy of the plutocracy and all the horrors that go along with that are unable to be tackled by the neo libs in government.

    These polls are an interesting marker during the election cycle and unlike the previous Key English cabal the Social Democrats are dropping after only a short time where as Key and his celebrity ” i can walk on the Waitemata ” without getting wet held onto their major party status for eight years in all those many polls while they did diddly squat apart from getting us to colour in our favourite replacement flag design.

    While the Social Democrats who were briefly Labour while David Cunliffe was their leader were polling abysmally all those years and never registered the type of support that Ms Adern managed in such a short time only for her numbers to begin to evaporate while Key and his criminals continued with the longest political honeymoon in recent political history. Just shows what a complicit MSM and a propaganda agenda can do.

    Expect the third way capitalists to fall away as people are never as kind to the pretend left as they are forgiving to the centre right.

  6. Three year run,only Nats got four.Said that years ago,why Kiwi Keith,got it, in Maori mind in those days KIWI Keith,why Kiwi Keith, got another three years, why KIWI Keith got a four term, he owned more Maori,land than us Maori in our Wairarapa home.Maori Keith.

  7. Ive been away,trust my socialism,no dont print.Selection of my socialism, weird.Against the wall,no problem,maybe give u problems.

  8. I wonder how the polls will be once Public Servants react to the way Labour has said thank you to them for all the work they did during the early days of covid. They have money to give to Amazon and land speculators but none to give to the workers.

    • @ Trevor, Sadly you are right.

      Actually most doctors who worked their asses off preventing Covid, will get a tax rise – they are the 2% of tax payers apparently that deserve the tax rise. Government introduced, under Parliamentary urgency, legislation for the new 39% personal tax rate on income above $180,000. The new rate will apply from 1 April (the 2021-22 income year).

      Note while you might think $180k is a lot of money at tdb – remember it takes 10 years of tertiary study to be a GP and 14 years to be a surgeon. For a local person that many years of student loans to become a doctor, followed by years of study to specialise… at additional 12% tax rate for the student loan. It is the same with many professions in NZ, which is why when many Kiwi’s finish studying they need to leave NZ’s low wages which are not to scale for the rewards of their labour, and NZ then brings in foreign doctors (which they often pay large sums to recruit and retrain, but still lose for the same reasons, low pay, poor work conditions).

      Add in starting a family as a doctor (or any professional) and how NZ has one of the highest day care rates in the world, you can see it is hard to get ahead as a local student in NZ.

      Hmm our social policy does not reward doctors like they reward and subsidise tourist operators and small business with visa scams – wonder why we have a brain drain in NZ and high levels of debt with low productivity.

  9. Leaving aside a comment section that says more about what ails the writers than anything useful, this is exactly what was always going to happen… The fourth estate in NZ is firmly, and completely owned by the barking dogs of the colonial power structure..
    NZers have world renowned short attention spans, and are as bad as the Aussies for being nothing more than modern day “colonials”.. Possibly worse in some ways.
    The main event is approaching fast… This year, that is the “headless chicken sock hop”… By 2023, it will be the march of the brain dead lemmings… There have been articles written about what the real “handbrake” is, and It is becoming clear that at least some of the senior members of the govt front bench are warming to the fight they now know they have to engage in to get their agenda past the tory senior managers of what had become an overarching “stealing from the citizens ministry”… How stupid do we really need to be before this reality misses the think bone? Just look around you boys and girls…

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