BREAKING SHOCK POLL: Tamaki Makarau – Peeni 35% Tamihere 29%

19
2092

Right now the NZ msm are not appreciating how the Māori Party momentum in the Māori electorates has the potential to be the real surprise on election night – we could have a Labour+Green+Māori Party Government that would have a real mandate for transformative change.

Maori TV have left the best for last, their Tamaki Makarau poll shows a remarkable turn around in fortunes for the Māori Party.

Months previously, Peeni was leading by 30% in internal polling, that has been smashed down to a mere 6% with 12% still not certain.

This result follows Tamihere having the campaign of his life. He has been head and shoulders above the others in his debates, coupled with very strong candidates and the best policy platform in the political spectrum, the Māori Party momentum is real.

Tāmaki Makaurau, Te Tai Hauāuru and Waiariki must now be considered in play, and that  the split vote strategy has taken hold.

That’s no reflection on the incredible leadership Willie Jackson has provided for the Māori campaign. All Labour Māori MPs have benefitted from his media training advice and his best judge of performance will be the Party vote Labour harvest from the Māori electorates, but deep issues within Māoridom about the State’s abuse of them hasn’t been taken up by Labour’s Leadership, so this strategic move by Māori voters to bring in an independent Māori political voice shouldn’t surprise anyone.

What might surprise is the ramifications of this.

If the Māori Party win more electorates than Party vote, they will create an MMP overhang that moves the parliamentary majority higher, which will in turn force Labour to seek a coalition with the Greens.

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The Greens in turn would be under enormous pressure to include the Māori Party in any negotiations with Labour.

Greens + Māori Party have very similar policies and could lay out a policy platform that must be passed in the first 100 days that would actually be transformative.

It’s up to Māori voters in the Māori electorates to decide if Labour + Greens + Māori Party are the Government combination they need to see the transformative change Jacinda promised in 2017.

If Māori voters in the Māori electorate candidate vote Māori Party and Party vote Labour/Green, we could have a huge surprise on election night.

MMP coattails are so 2014, MMP overhang is where it’s at now.

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19 COMMENTS

  1. Would support Māori Party being part of the Govt if John Tamihere is genuine that the MP has now officially counted NZ National out. The MP accomodation with the Key Govt. bought shame on the MP leaders and worse lives to countless thousands of Māori people.

    Unity of class left Pākehā and working class Māori is something that the NZ ruling class, and Iwi elites, greatly dread. And that type of co-operation could be a powerful force for political change.

  2. It is not going to happen, but it seems from this poll that Davidson would be well advised to have a public cup of tea with Tamihere. A promise not to negotiate individually post-election with Labour would be a good place to start. Her 14% isn’t going to get her the seat even with a confidence interval of 8.8% (MoE 4.4% from 500 sample size), and the elctorate seems quite comfortable with tactical voting given the party to electorate preferences:

    55% Labour, 34% Peeni
    9% Māori, 29% Tamihere
    7% Green, 14% Davidson

    Yet strangely 54% favouring a Green/ Labour coalition over 42% for Māori/ Labour. Though the numbers sum to 125% (NZF/ LP 23%; Nat!/ LP 6%) , so there’ll be some overlap in there. The GP can hardly complain about Swarbrick’s contest with White in Auckland Central if they are unwilling to cooperate with other potential allies themselves.

    https://www.teaomaori.news/tamaki-makaurau-seat-grabs-poll-results

  3. Tamihere is more a red herring than a blue cod. Who in their right mind would want to see him back in parliament, certainly not the “front bums”.

    • Obviously you are wrong Kat as many of our Maori whanau want him (John) or the Maori party back in which is why the polls are so close. This is a new look Maori party with more transformational ideas and some very well educated and articulate candidates. Also our Maori whanau voting in the Tamaki Makaurau electorate need to remember it was under Labour we marched against the foreshore and seabed legislation and it was under Labour our Tuhoe whanau were raided, treated badly and deemed terrorist. Yes, the Maori party were in bed with National for nine years and they paid severely for this. The Covid pandemic has changed everything. We are now living in very difficult and unprecedented times. Now is the time for a change this may require a change in government policy if we truly want to improve the socio economic position of our Maori people. We cannot wait any longer for the prevailing attitudes of our public services and those working in them to change, too many have entrenched racist and bias views. And to keep doing more of the same is wrong.

      • In the Auckland debacle Tamihere was willing to sell off public assets. Can he change his spots.
        Deeds not words are less deceiving.

  4. I was sitting in a car outside a surprisingly good cafe in Invercargill a week or so ago while waiting on my female human companion to come out with coffees and as I did so I watched a Gulf Stream jet shoot into the sky from the direction of the airport at an alarming speed then disappear into the North into a clear blue sky.
    Who ever was on that plane is your master.
    When one can see a photograph of trump literally holding hands with peter theil, a fellow who blatantly bought an AO/NZ citizenship after ‘living’ here for a few days, then you know who your master is.
    A year or so ago as I pulled into Dunedin airport to pick up my sweetie I drove past another Gulf Stream jet parked up inside the airports fenced off area by the terminal.
    I had to ask, right?
    I was told it was there because there was no more parking spaces available for private jets at Queenstown AP so the poor souls who owned the beautiful aircraft had to ditch it in Dunedin and helicopter across to ZQT. They’re your masters.
    You been to Blanket Bay resort up near Glenorchy? You can stay there for many thousands of dollars a night. The guests more often than not fly in, in helicopters from all over the place once they find a parking space for their private jets.
    Once, I was talking to a helicopter pilot who was flying a Russian fellow around who paid for everything in cash US.
    There’s your master.
    There are things happening in AO/NZ that are above and beyond our politics and it’s those guys who pull our strings. Not you or me by voting.
    If we AO/NZ’ers don’t start taking responsibility for showing some spine with regard to our politics we’ll become a South Pacific Palestine.
    We don’t need to vote. Who cares who’s ‘in’. It won’t matter as long as we defer our responsibilities to nurture our democracy to a few people who please themselves once they please their masters. Labour national green act etc. They’re just words. They mean nothing. Our real masters fly over our heads with more money individually than our country has collectively. We don’t stand a chance.
    Sorry to burst your bubbles dumbasses.
    Aw. Bless.
    trump and pete up a tree k.i.s.s.i.n.g.
    While we’re up shit creek.
    https://www.reddit.com/r/photoshopbattles/comments/5wbbvv/psbattle_peter_thiel_and_donald_trump_holding/

    • Countryboy,

      All the private jet visitors to Queenstown are there on holiday. Are they your masters, “no”.

      The IT revolution of the last five decades has generated enormous wealth for that industry, especially those with big equity stakes. Has there ever been an industry where an idea, a programme, an application can go from being an idea in someones head to being used by hundreds of millions of people within two or three years? That is what has generated the enormous wealth concentrated in the people with the ideas, programmes or applications.

      It is very different to the earlier industrial revolution which required physical things to be manufactured. That took more time, more capital and more people. That is why the wealth was more broadly spread. And why the first 70 years on the twentieth century had a much more even spread of wealth than today.

      As an analogy, perhaps IT is a bit like movies and music recording. A film or record takes a relatively small number of people to make, but they can be seen or heard by billions. Hence the wealth of movie stars, recording artists and producers.

      Anyway, back to my point. The manifestations of extreme wealth (the jets) does not mean the the owners control us. Yes, we all use their services, but we are not their slaves.

    • I think, to keep all of us jealous, unambitious, pathetic NIMBYs happy, that Gulf Stream owner should sell his plane and travel using our excellent 300kmph high-speed rail network. Or at the very least, use our four-lane highways with no speed limit.
      In fact we should ban any ambitions to want to earn more than the dole pays.
      Now we’re getting somewhere!

  5. Can’t see the loyal Maori stormtroopers voting for anything other than Labour when they get in the ballot box. However if it does happen parliament will be better and more colourful with Tamahere there. Especially with no Winston there as he goes the way of the Haast’s eagle.

    Privately Labour will be worried. No point holding the middle if you lose at the flanks and we know the Maori party will be more aggressive in negotiations than BMW Jimmy. If you have to make deals on the left then you lose votes in the middle. Luxon and his turd polishers are waiting in the background.

    • LOL! Stormtroopers.
      I agree about this. The reality is that a lot of Maori voters don’t see that Labour have taken their vote for granted for decades now.
      Ironically Labour are scarcely better than National (if at all) for Maori interests.

  6. ” MMP coattails are so 2014, MMP overhang is where it’s at now ”
    Yes the mathematics of MMP are never wrong and the M.P could well as i have been pointing out for weeks could mean a totally different government than the one we were expecting a few months ago with all this talk about a Labour majority government.
    Tamihere traditionally is from the right of Labour but has he really come on board as a cheerleader for real progressive policies ?
    He talks about the gulf between Maori and the rest but surely that will never be overcome while the huge payouts to the tribes are never distributed to the people who need it and market economics that the last four governments that included the Maori party and Tamihere have implemented and protected have worsened the lives of whanau and many poor pakeha.
    I am trying to stay optimistic but i get the feeling our expectations are not going to be met.
    But whatever happens in the next three years the wealthy always remain untouched.

  7. Have the Maori party had their policies independently costed? has any of the minor parties for that matter? i know the Greens, that have a very impressive list of progressive policies that are worth voting for, always have theirs costed.

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