7 weeks until 2020 election – Current political landscape

By
Martyn Bradbury
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33
2688

So we are now less than 7 weeks until the 2020 NZ Election due on October 17th. The pandemic has created an unforeseen unprecedented universal event that has generated a solidarity and a genuine gratitude of Jacinda’s leadership which is translating into political loyalty beyond anything we have seen in recent political history.

To be clear, Labour have NO idea what they are doing next, they are barely keeping their head above water because of the constant crisis pressure created by the pandemic and aren’t sure what policy to roll out. None of that matters however because a huge majority of the electorate just love Jacinda.

I know, I know, I know. That’s a crazy way to run a democracy, but she’s earned a second term and you all know it.

DATES:

  • Sunday 6 September: Parliament dissolves
  • Sunday 13 September: Writ Day – the Governor General formally directs NZ to hold the Election
  • 19 September, 9.30am: Newshub Nation presents Battlegrounds – a special programme dedicated to some of the most hotly-contested electorates in the country, featuring a debate between the key Northland Candidates, on location in the Bay of Islands.
  • Tuesday 22 September – The first Leaders’ Debate takes place between Jacinda Ardern and Judith Collins at 7-8.30pm on TVNZ 1. Moderated by John Campbell.
  • Monday 28 September – The Young Voters Debate in association with Auckland University will feature candidates from a range of parties and will be live streamed via 1news.co.nz and 1 NEWS social channels. Moderated by Jack Tame.
  • Wednesday 30 September: Overseas voting starts
  • 30 September, 7.30pm: Newshub Decision 2020 Leaders Debate with Jacinda Ardern and Judith Collins, hosted by Patrick Gower and post-debate analysis by Tova O’Brien with guest panellists. Live on Three, ThreeNow, Newshub’s Facebook page and YouTube account. Simulcast on Magic Talk.
  • Saturday 3 October: Advance voting starts
  • 3 October, 9.30am: Newshub Nation presents Powerbrokers, its multi-party leaders’ debate  featuring the Green Party’s Marama Davidson , the ACT Party’s David Seymour, and John Tamihere from The Maori Party.
  • 7 October, 8.30pm: Newshub Decision 2020 The Cannabis Question, moderated by Patrick Gower. Live on Three, ThreeNow, Newshub’s Facebook page and YouTube account.
  • Thursday 8 October – The Multi-Party Debate will include NZ First, The Green Party and Act at 7-8pm on TVNZ 1. Moderated by Jessica Mutch McKay.
  • 14 October, 8.30pm: Newshub Decision 2020 The Euthanasia Question, moderated by Patrick Gower. Live on Three, ThreeNow, Newshub’s Facebook page and YouTube account.
  • Thursday 15 October – The final Leaders’ Debate airs at 7-8pm on TVNZ 1. Featuring Jacinda Ardern and Judith Collins, this will be the last broadcast debate before New Zealanders head to voting booths on Election Day. Moderated by Jessica Mutch McKay.
  • Friday 16 October: Advance voting ends
  • Friday 16 October midnight: The regulated period ends. All election and referendum advertising must end. Signs must be taken down by midnight.
  • Saturday 17 October: Election day. Voters can vote from 9am to 7pm.
  • 17th October 7pm – The Greatest NZ Election Results Show on Earth: Magic Talk Radio with Sean Plunket, Damien Grant and Martyn Bradbury
  • Friday 30 October: Preliminary results for the referendums
  • Friday 6 November: Official results for the general election and referendums

 

LABOUR: Prediction 50%+

If only!

The middle classes see their lock down self sacrifice as the greatest act of NZ courage since the storming of Gallipoli and they are welded to how noble they were because it was the first time they felt the vulnerability the Precariat feel every day of the week.

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That vulnerability spooked the bejesus out of them.

They are grateful to how Jacinda led us through this and that gratitude has manufactured a political loyalty that crosses class and ideological boundaries that will see Labour win an unprecedented majority Government.

Everything in NZ happens in the shadow of a global mountain of dead from the pandemic, and that forgives any Labour Party sin. Thankfully for Labour the vast majority of their supporters see the media as biased and unfairly critical so won’t accept the coverage of her.

Labour supporters can differentiate between the Government trying and the underfunded State failing. That provides Labour with enormous protection.

 

NATIONAL: Prediction less than 30%

I like to beat a sack of puppies with a cricket bat.
Would you like a cucumber sandwich?

Judith has all the empathy of a hungry wolverine in a pre-natal ward.

The Polls are suggesting overtime voters see more of Judith they recoil in horror.

National are promising a hodgepodge of confused policy while constantly reminding voters how malicious National are, whether it’s ‘Merv’ ringing ZB Talkback or Judith’s husband going on weird Twitter rants, voters are continually seeing National at their worst.

If you look at the 200 000 older women who have swapped National for Labour, Judith is only succeeding in driving those voters closer to Jacinda, not further from her.

National will execute Judith the moment she loses the election, so expect Judith to get more desperate between now and October 17th.

 

NZ FIRST: Under 4% – No electorate

It’s all over rover. Without the ability to be the Queen maker, Winston has all the power of Jareth at the end of Labyrinth. NZ First is only powerful if we think it has power and without any immigrants to rave at, he’s gone burger. The ONLY chance is Shane Jones beating that boiled ham, Matt King in Northland, but that’s a steep climb because Jones’ verbiage is far too cosmopolitan for Northland voters who are better known for their fear of eclipses and electricity than love of provincial Keynesianism.

 

GREENS: 4% + 1 electorate

Actual Green Party Caucus meeting

The Magical Private Harry Potter Environmental Academy the Greens bewilderingly gave $12m to is a gift that just keeps giving.

Backers of the Wizarding Green School were planting a magical crystal garden and I suspect the Greens thought they were actually training Jedi for the fight against climate change.

This will probably sink the Greens beneath 5%.

Chloe Swarbrick winning in Auckland Central is their only hope now.

 

ACT: 5% + 1 electorate

The knitted support toy for the victims of ACT Party gun fetishists

Guns. Guns. Guns. More Guns. Guns.

Now ACT have been taken over by the NZ NRA, David Seymour is hostage to their crazy demands for guns and ACT’s Deputy is promoting beneficiaries take a cut in welfare in solidarity with rich people losing money in the pandemic. The total collapse in National vote is boosting ACT in an uncritical way in that angry right wing voters are giving ACT a protest vote with no idea just how crazy ACT is.

This is so glorious for the Left who will now be able to frighten middle voters of an ACT-National Government in 2023, 2026 and 2029.

 

MAORI PARTY: Prediction 2 MPs

 

Exploiting the deep sense of resentment by Māori towards the neoliberal welfare agencies the Government haven’t been able to tame, the Māori Party have a chance for a Māori Electorate win plus 1 MP off the list.

 

TOP: Prediction 2%

Will pick up disgruntled National protest voters who see Judith’s leadership as a suicide mission.

 

New Conservative Party: Prediction less than 2%

God will smite sin, Māori rights, environmentalism and socialism

Hateful of abortion, solo mothers, gays, solo mothers, cannabis and solo mothers, the New Conservatives love guns, patriarchy and more guns. Paranoid and frightened of any idea post the renaissance, the New Conservatives would represent a great leap backwards for New Zealand. It’s political thinking is so inbred, I suspect they would want to relax laws around cousins marrying. Banjo playing with your toes and burning books is mandatory to be a candidate. They will gloriously rob the Right by wasting vote.

 

Vision NZ: Prediction less than 1%

Hates all the same things as the New Conservatives but hates Muslims most.  Libraries and clitorises would be banned if Vision NZ came to power.

 

One Party: Prediction less than 1%

Under ONE Party, I think Jesus becomes the Constitutional Head of State and God has to personally sign off on legislation. The NZDF would be given spirit spears to fight Satan and anyone caught working on Sunday is put to death. Gay Conversion treatment is mandatory for anyone who watches Glee. Electricity and any singing that isn’t praising Jesus is also banned.

 

Advance NZ, NZPP, NZ People’s Party & Reset Party

Sith Jedi and Svengali of self interest, Jami-Lee Ross continues to play Conspiracy Theorist Billy TK as he builds his Fringe Army.

The sudden ratcheting up of emergency powers and curtailing of our civil liberties has been frightening and this pandemic is scary. It is a complex thing with many real time adaptations that can feel intimidating and trigger anger. But to manipulate those legitimate emotions into a narrative that insinuates the virus is a bioengineered weapon spread by 5G to bring about a shadowy one world government that only QAnon can fight is fucking insane!

I don’t think there’s any chance of Billy TK and JLR entering Parliament, but it does gloriously waste right wing vote that will be reallocated to Labour on election night, but there must be a serious rethink of public broadcasting to stop this sort of flat earth delusional politics gaining a popular foothold.

Billy TK and JLR are a political swindle preying on the ignorance and fear of those who only source their news from Facebook. Never before has such political desperation mixed with pure insanity.

For these people books really are fuel for burning witches at the stake with.

 

The Integrity Party: Prediction less than nothing.

It’s that ugly blue green colour you have when environmentalism gets hit by capitalism. Has the kind of Māori buzz words you get when Wellington Bureaucrats are opening a sustainable pet crematorium.

 

Tea Party: Prediction less than 2%

The People’s Republic of China have decided their investment into National requires a new tail to wag it into an MMP Government.

REFERENDUM: 

Euthanasia and Cannabis referendum will be a lot closer than they are now.

CONCLUSIONS:

With the enrolment rule changes that allow for enrolment on the day, prisoner voting alongside booths in Marae, I think we will see a large turnout.

I think overseas votes will go overwhelmingly to Labour and not the Greens.

I think with the huge number of fringe parties we will see more wasted vote than ever before.

I think the Government will be a Labour Majority.

I think National will be lucky to gain 30%.

I think Judith will increasingly become more desperate and vicious.

NZ First won’t be politically relevant.

The only hope for the Greens is Auckland central.

ACT will suffer rapid growth pains from candidates they haven’t vetted properly.

Labour only need 47% on election night to get scaled up for a majority.

Greens must hit 4.5% on election night to successfully get scaled up over the 5% threshold.

NZ First must hit 5.5% on election night to guarantee they won’t get scaled down under MMP.

Because of the high amount of wasted vote, the Māori Party should be able to gain an extra seat from their list with as little as 1% if they win an electorate seat.

 

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33 COMMENTS

  2. How do the Greens get scaled up if they only get 4.5%? Is that from oversea or ‘late’ votes?
    Maybe the system of wasted votes being redistributed is more complex than I realise?

  5. National are all about roads roads and more roads; and have eared the role of the ‘tarmac king’ – and will not support any freight on rails!!!!!

    Roads they want are for more trucks so how many tyres per truck? 32 average per b train train and each tyre consists of 21 gallons of oil to manufacture each tyre so where does tyre dust off the trucks go to when shreaded off the tyres? READ THIS;

    https://www.huffpost.com/entry/air-pollution-cars-tire-waste_n_5a6896e3e4b0dc592a0e6f8e

    So National love using tres to move freight not steel wheels???
    Lots of toxic tyre dust is then available and leeching of pollution into your water supplies and your environment!!! yum yum so vote for the National Party and get everyone polluted.

  6. https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2020/08/kiwis-urging-aucklanders-to-stay-in-auckland-after-flocking-the-domestic-terminal.html

    Meanwhile, anyone living south of the Bombays is segregating itself from Auckland i.e 2/3rds of the rest of the nation, calling for Aucklanders (who are now infected lepers care of Ashley Bloomfield) not to travel.

    Look what Jacinda, Grant, Chris, MoH um all the other fuckwits running the show have now created by design “us and them”. WELL FUCKING DONE TEAM!!

  7. If Bomber’s estimates are near correct then we could have 8% or 9% wasted votes.
    After 20+ years of MMP it’s time to get rid of wasted votes i.e. the mechanism where you vote for party A and your vote gets distributed to parties B,C,D,E… because your party didn’t meet the threshold.
    http://tiny.cc/WastedVotes

    • Tens of thousands of votes go to parties that never make it every year but that doesn’t matter as long as your vote is registered. Saying that a vote is wasted is just the way losers talk.

      • Your vote is wasted if the party you vote for doesn’t make it into parliament. A system which allows you a second chance if your first choice doesn’t make it obviates that disadvantage.

        • Exactly, and that is what we need here for the sake of fairness.
          At present the wasted votes travesty plays into the hands of the (two) major parties as they become the recipients of the wasted votes.

  8. In part you are correct Martyn. But you miss a couple of things. First Winston still has his core support, the gold card holders, 80,000 have been added since last election, yes a few have died the number overall continues to rise, many truely value the card and will reward Winston with their vote. Add to that the 20,000 service personel who for the first time in 50 years have a Minister who actually understands defence. Ron Mark
    The service personel will reward NZF for their toys. Neither of these sectors wiĺl show in normal polling. NZF will survive at around 8%
    On Act you may have under estimated their support David Seymore has tapped the “working man” market the “kiwi battler” Mike Moore was always on about. Will he be able to control his 8 or 9 MPs on that one we will have to see. Finally Billy TK is getting traction in the Maori hinterland maybe sufficient to kill the Maori party.

  9. I agree 100% Clifford

    NZF has a silent base with many gold cold holders; – and they know that it is only NZF party that stands for the retirees and that will sail Winnie through.

    Ron Marks is a rising star that is a great speaker in parliament also so don’t count NZF out folks.

  10. Labour, are in the pound seat of winning Alone possible probable, yet third term in the distance and when the reality of almost a collapse of the Capitalism!s structure due to the lockdown effect of the ongoing effect of this COVID, that shall be on-of continuous until some form of remedy or inhibiter like a flu jab is available and that jab is not always a guarantee of free of flu, as in all probability like a COVID jab or pill.
    So who the op, well the obvious farm fence Nats, along with their so-called Libertarian Party, better known by intelligence as basic Fascist, self- interest and no real care of only them and their selfish ilk.
    So present Government partners who shall survive have seats in the house of lies and deceit. Now there is a TAB win for those inclined to punt. No a gambler myself, suggest the Greens, and N.Z First, so no change of those in the house of deceit, only change they like the op are in theory the op.

  11. After tonight’s revelations – will Top get more votes than the greens? And who associated with the ewok village has Pictures of James Shaw in a compromising situation with a domestic animal?

  12. Having read through all the so called analyses of parties and random Comments there is not a single reference to Social Credit who actually has some good policies unlike some of the bizarre policies of most of the others. Can some one explain that please?

    • Put the question to their P.R. person or team. The buck stops with the person in charge of letting AO/ NZ KNOW about Social Credit. It may be too late to have great success for this election? (Unless they magically create some noteworthy, newsworthy event which the media cannot ignore?). But if they’re still around for the next one, they need to fix their PR Dept urgently.

    • Like the competence Brownlee displayed during the EQC years or Woodhouses homeless man competence. Nine long years of Nationals incompetence.

Comments are closed.